TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 10 Posted January 10 https://fortune.com/crypto/2025/01/09/federal-government-allowed-sell-bitcoin-silk-road-courts/ So the question is - do they sell as they always have? Or is this the start of the "Bitcoin reserve" we keep hearing people clamoring about. I think it gets sold. I have zero faith the US government, and especially DJT, care about balanced budgets and hard currencies. And even if they did, there is no feasible path for the US government to acquire anywhere near enough BTC to matter for trillion dollar deficits and tens of trillions of debt (and more unfunded liabilities).
SharperDingaan Posted January 10 Posted January 10 I think its a 30-90 day sale and repurchase at market, no trades in the market itself; pool of buyers putting up T-Bills and covering their downside with puts. It also wouldn't surprise us if a WEB/Blackrock/etc. puts up part of their T-Bill collection in return for an arbitrage spread. Trump has promises to keep; talk up BTC post inauguration, and every one does very well. SD
gfp Posted January 10 Posted January 10 Lots of toppy looking charts across risk assets - it will sure be some move if they all violate these assumptions to the upside. S&P500 included
wachtwoord Posted January 11 Posted January 11 On 1/8/2025 at 6:16 PM, TwoCitiesCapital said: Additionally, my basic understanding is that nodes can reject transactions and not communicate/come-to-a-consensus which is why it node operators that shut down the attempt to make BTC blocks larger in size resulting in the hard fork of Bitcoin cash that is largely worthless in comparison Nodes lead and miners obey. Proven through user activated hard fork during the blocksize wars where those in control of the majority of mining tried to vandalize for their own incentives, failed and were forced to accept the users' (what the nodes are) change instead or be forked off.
Dave86ch Posted January 12 Posted January 12 21 hours ago, wachtwoord said: Nodes lead and miners obey. Proven through user activated hard fork during the blocksize wars where those in control of the majority of mining tried to vandalize for their own incentives, failed and were forced to accept the users' (what the nodes are) change instead or be forked off. Correct. By the way, What if Michael Saylor released a stablecoin entirely backed by Bitcoin and MSTR bonds? It could protect the dollar's hegemony while preserving the freedom of exchange through Bitcoin and potentially offer a solution to the debt problem.
Paarslaars Posted January 12 Posted January 12 15 hours ago, Vish_ram said: Thanks for that, will be good for orange pilling some friends/colleagues.
SharperDingaan Posted January 12 Posted January 12 Sadly the reality is that most people just aren't comfortable with change, and will simply deny as denial translates into continued business as usual within the gilded cage. It isn't people being stupid, it's just people being human. The other reality is that a disproportionate % of BTC adopters come from places where people have lost futures to central bank/government, via wars/social unrest, state intervention, rampant inflation, etc, etc. There's a reason for that - the you can fool me once .... but it ain't ever happening again! And if those people are also very smart and capable? ... you get a wicked protocol Of course, the way out ... is BTC backed Treasury Bills; with the nations BTC reserve offsetting the ongoing T-Bill loss to inflation. All longer term bonds left unprotected ... in the expectation that upon maturity the inflation difference between the asset built and debt issued to fund it, falls on the economy. Bigger the deficit, the bigger the benefit. SD
james22 Posted January 12 Posted January 12 44 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said: Sadly the reality is that most people just aren't comfortable with change, and will simply deny as denial translates into continued business as usual within the gilded cage. It isn't people being stupid, it's just people being human. A counter to the "future shock" argument is the increasing familiarity people should have with the digital transformation of things. Investors should recognize bitcoin as just the latest after seeing Amazon transform retail, Google information, Facebook social, etc.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 12 Posted January 12 1 hour ago, james22 said: A counter to the "future shock" argument is the increasing familiarity people should have with the digital transformation of things. Investors should recognize bitcoin as just the latest after seeing Amazon transform retail, Google information, Facebook social, etc. I think it will be widely acknowledged and accepted by Gen Z - I think everyone else will struggle with it. That being said, we don't need understanding to get wide adoption. A minority of 1% of people can explain the interconnection of our banking system and how things like wires and ACH work, why there are multiple days worth of delays, and etc. And yet nearly everyone has a bank account, swipes debit/credit cards, and uses apps like Venmo to pay friends. Bitcoin simply needs adoption on the backend of these institutional transfers and will magically take the market share of payment processors and all of the red tape in between. While we debate on and on about micro payments - Bitcoin's competitive advantage in large payments is basically insurmountable. I don't see why it can't be used for purchases of cars, houses, cross-border remittances, settlements between corporate accounts, central bank transactions, and a global reserve currency to get rid of exchange rates and all of the unproductive jobs/energy/cost/waste that goes into simply exchanging monies to the right monies.
Milu Posted January 12 Posted January 12 2 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: I don't see why it can't be used for purchases of cars, houses, cross-border remittances, settlements between corporate accounts, central bank transactions, and a global reserve currency to get rid of exchange rates and all of the unproductive jobs/energy/cost/waste that goes into simply exchanging monies to the right monies. As long as the there is a capital gain triggered anytime something is purchased using bitcoin then nobody is going to use it for any purchases. It will just be used to store long term wealth but cash will still be used for purchases. Obviously if the law on this changes down the line then different story.
SharperDingaan Posted January 12 Posted January 12 1 hour ago, Milu said: As long as the there is a capital gain triggered anytime something is purchased using bitcoin then nobody is going to use it for any purchases. It will just be used to store long term wealth but cash will still be used for purchases. Obviously if the law on this changes down the line then different story. Not really. All that really happens is that one borrows against the Bitcoin, and uses the borrowed funds to make the actual payment; via fiat, lightning, etc, etc. Pisses off the taxman as there is never a trade of the Bitcoin collateral, and therefore no tax, EVER! (as long as the money printer continues to spin). Truly elegant SD
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 13 Posted January 13 55 minutes ago, Milu said: As long as the there is a capital gain triggered anytime something is purchased using bitcoin then nobody is going to use it for any purchases. It will just be used to store long term wealth but cash will still be used for purchases. Obviously if the law on this changes down the line then different story. I agree the tax is an impediment, but I disagree it stops it from being used at all. No different than if I were to buy stocks with excess savings and then decide I need to spend some of it. I'm currently considering selling some taxable investments, or margining them, to buy a new car. If I'm willing to sell stocks and pay taxes to buy a car, why wouldn't one also be willing to sell Bitcoin if its what they have available to them?
Milu Posted January 13 Posted January 13 8 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: I agree the tax is an impediment, but I disagree it stops it from being used at all. No different than if I were to buy stocks with excess savings and then decide I need to spend some of it. I'm currently considering selling some taxable investments, or margining them, to buy a new car. If I'm willing to sell stocks and pay taxes to buy a car, why wouldn't one also be willing to sell Bitcoin if its what they have available to them? Ya maybe you are right, I suppose it depends on what liquid assets the person has. For example in my case I have about 15% of my wealth in bitcoin right now, and about 20% in t-bills. If I was planning to buy a boat or some other expensive asset this year I would be using my t-bills rather than selling down my btc and paying 20-30% in cap gains. In circumstances where somebody has no cash or cash equivalents in their portfolio then I suppose you're right that they would have to sell some assets, pay cap gains, and then use the funds to buy the boat.
Milu Posted January 13 Posted January 13 13 hours ago, SharperDingaan said: Not really. All that really happens is that one borrows against the Bitcoin, and uses the borrowed funds to make the actual payment; via fiat, lightning, etc, etc. Pisses off the taxman as there is never a trade of the Bitcoin collateral, and therefore no tax, EVER! (as long as the money printer continues to spin). Truly elegant SD That sounds great, is this something that is possible right now or just a vision of how things will play out down the line? How would it work in practice, let's say a person has 500k in bitcoin, how much can they borrow against it, what rate, and how is it paid back?
SharperDingaan Posted January 13 Posted January 13 3 hours ago, Milu said: How would it work in practice, let's say a person has 500k in bitcoin, how much can they borrow against it, what rate, and how is it paid back? This is a pretty wide practice today; your broker very likely already offers this, as most BTC-ETF's are margin eligible. If you're putting up BTC itself, SALT lending is pretty representative of LTV and interest rate https://saltlending.com/. Same general structure as a Home Equity Line of Credit, but at a 70% LTV, and a 9% + interest rate; expectation is that you pay back the loan as/when you are able. SD
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 14 Posted January 14 15 hours ago, Milu said: Ya maybe you are right, I suppose it depends on what liquid assets the person has. For example in my case I have about 15% of my wealth in bitcoin right now, and about 20% in t-bills. If I was planning to buy a boat or some other expensive asset this year I would be using my t-bills rather than selling down my btc and paying 20-30% in cap gains. In circumstances where somebody has no cash or cash equivalents in their portfolio then I suppose you're right that they would have to sell some assets, pay cap gains, and then use the funds to buy the boat. Sure - but you're t-bills you're paying 20-30% on the income generated. It's not any different.
Dave86ch Posted Friday at 10:42 AM Posted Friday at 10:42 AM Technical blog post on some censorship observations from the mempool. https://b10c.me/observations/13-missing-sanctioned-transactions-2024-12/
Dave86ch Posted Saturday at 01:21 PM Posted Saturday at 01:21 PM Interesting opportunities are unlocked by the Bitcoin protocol, serving as powerful tools in the hands of humanity. Calle discusses Cashu and its integration with the Lightning Network to enhance the distribution of coinbase rewards among mining pools, thereby contributing to increased mining decentralization.
adesigar Posted Saturday at 11:12 PM Posted Saturday at 11:12 PM https://www.axios.com/2025/01/18/trump-meme-coin-25-billion Trump coin?
james22 Posted Sunday at 12:01 AM Posted Sunday at 12:01 AM 48 minutes ago, adesigar said: Trump coin?
TwoCitiesCapital Posted Sunday at 04:57 AM Posted Sunday at 04:57 AM Maybe he'll make a strategic reserve of Trump coin!!! This is hyper mega bullish! Bitcoin is so yesterday!
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