GLP-1 disruption

[Red Lion]

Anecdotal, but I’ve heard from a friend who is an md at a local hospital that “all the doctors” are on mounjaro (personally) for weight loss. 
 

Clearly they don’t think they’re going to be dying of mounjaro overdoses. I also think it’s interesting because I never heard these sorts of things for the first gen glp drugs like victoza, Byeta, trulicity, etc. 

[KCLarkin]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

I think consumer staples are selling off more due to higher LT interest rates than due to GPT-1 threats. The GPT-1 issue is just one more nail in the coffin and caused more selling pressure. 

I’m looking more at the restaurants on Friday, rather than staples. DPZ down nearly 6%. Wing down nearly 5%. On a day that the consumer discretionary index was green.

[UK]

2 hours ago, KCLarkin said:

Yes, my inclination when stocks are narrative driven is to fade. The same forces that are causing the sell-off in junk food also sold off auto parts and costco due to Amazon threat. Sold off convenience stores due to EVs. Mooned Peloton and 3d printers and tilray.

 

The problem here is that most of these stocks started at high valuations and have plenty of debt. Both aspects that aren’t aren’t appealing at current interest rates.

 

TLDR: the risk is potentially real but market will overreact in short term creating a buying opportunity.

 

Good points. 

[whatstheofficerproblem]

8 hours ago, KCLarkin said:

Yes, my inclination when stocks are narrative driven is to fade. The same forces that are causing the sell-off in junk food also sold off auto parts and costco due to Amazon threat. Sold off convenience stores due to EVs. Mooned Peloton and 3d printers and tilray.

 

I don't know if its the wording, but this sounds like music to my ears. I am framing this.

 

7 hours ago, RedLion said:

Anecdotal, but I’ve heard from a friend who is an md at a local hospital that “all the doctors” are on mounjaro (personally) for weight loss. 
 

Clearly they don’t think they’re going to be dying of mounjaro overdoses. I also think it’s interesting because I never heard these sorts of things for the first gen glp drugs like victoza, Byeta, trulicity, etc. 

 

That is because doctors know the line between abuse and use, they know how to squeeze this thing effectively, such is their profession. But interesting data point nonetheless, I'm gonna call some doctors I know to see if they have something interesting.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Speaking of doctors, another use case I see for GLP-1 is Pregnancy! Women in general gain a lot of weight during pregnancy, and I think GLP-1 is a viable post pregnancy option. If some here is an OB-GYN, do you know if this angle is being explored yet? 

[Spekulatius]

Interesting to read this thread on reddit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Semaglutide/
 

What I gleaned, people eat less (they simply feel full and can’t digest large meals any more), drink less alcohol (can’t keep it down), go out less (restaurant food, drinking - see above ) exercise less  

because eating less calories makes them feel tired quickly and what’s the point anyways if you are losing weight without.

 

Probably great for supplement producers, clothing (due to rapid body changes), cosmetic surgery (remove excess skin etc).

 

I think the effects will be quite observable in many different business. Bigger than AI.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

GLP-1 also has tailwinds from hollywood and bodybuilders. Workout supplement industry is expected to reach $24B by 2027. Bodybuilders, at least the competing and professional ones have used anabolics to rapidly grow muscle but at the end of the day starve themselves before competition to look their leanest. GLP could benefit heavily, in fact there is already active discussion about GLP-1 in the space.

 

My thoughts are instead of anabolics and they can use regular testosterone instead pair it with GLP-1 to reach a single digit bodyfat, not restrict too many calories and have enough protein to replicate the same shredded look. Since muscle size is rarely relevant but what is graded is the overall body aesthetic, I can see the above industries Spek mentioned along with Caffeine industry, energy drinks and the muscle building supplement industry to bask in the glory and ride the tailwinds of this drug.

Edited October 8, 2023 by whatstheofficerproblem

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-10-09/ozempic-is-bad-for-business?leadSource=uverify wall

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Sell-side 'analysts' are losing it again. Barclays downgraded Colgate on fears of disruption from GLP-1. Didn't know Mounjaro makes you wanna brush less, bath less and clean your house less. Maybe people shit less which should lead to a decrease in toilet paper sales, but us civilized folk use bidets anyways so I can't speak for them.

[Jaygo]

2 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Sell-side 'analysts' are losing it again. Barclays downgraded Colgate on fears of disruption from GLP-1. Didn't know Mounjaro makes you wanna brush less, bath less and clean your house less. Maybe people shit less which should lead to a decrease in toilet paper sales, but us civilized folk use bidets anyways so I can't speak for them.

Japanese toilets for the win!

[whatstheofficerproblem]

3 hours ago, Jaygo said:

Japanese toilets for the win!

 

[UK]

6 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Sell-side 'analysts' are losing it again. Barclays downgraded Colgate on fears of disruption from GLP-1. Didn't know Mounjaro makes you wanna brush less, bath less and clean your house less. Maybe people shit less which should lead to a decrease in toilet paper sales, but us civilized folk use bidets anyways so I can't speak for them.

 

More healthy teeth because of less sweets:)? 

 

Lets just hope these drugs will not also work to cure stupidity...

[whatstheofficerproblem]

4 hours ago, UK said:

More healthy teeth because of less sweets:)? 

 

I don't ever recall brushing my teeth to keep them healthy, I do so to keep them clean and there is an aftertaste in the mouth after waking up anyways and after a day of eating (irrespective of food quantity) I would want my mouth cleaned from all the residue, so brushing is kind of a refresh button. 

 

To me this doesn't seem like a case for less toothpaste sales, but your point is totally valid. I would be worried if I ran a Sweets Business or a Dentist Clinic.

[UK]

23 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

I don't ever recall brushing my teeth to keep them healthy, I do so to keep them clean and there is an aftertaste in the mouth after waking up anyways and after a day of eating (irrespective of food quantity) I would want my mouth cleaned from all the residue, so brushing is kind of a refresh button. 

 

To me this doesn't seem like a case for less toothpaste sales, but your point is totally valid. I would be worried if I ran a Sweets Business or a Dentist Clinic.

 

So I was joking, but really, why they downgraded CL?

 

EDIT: found it, it seems some kind ofmisunderstanding:)

Edited October 13, 2023 by UK

[whatstheofficerproblem]

13 minutes ago, UK said:

EDIT: found it, it seems some kind ofmisunderstanding:)

 

I see, this is what I read before making the initial comment.

 

[Spekulatius]

9 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

We eat less means we shit less means we need less bathrooms and toilets. This means less housing, (smaller houses) less lumber etc. Also services like plumbing (less clogged toilets), lower water consumption (less flushing), so utilities also will have problems.

 

Longer term, less obesity will mean higher life expectancy which will destroy social security. All drugs but GPT-1 (which cure everything) will be mostly useless , so health care and the rest of the drug sector will shrink considerably. Thats 20% of our economy right there.

 

Basically GPT-1 sets off a deflationary spiral that could destroy the entire economy, as we know it.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

12 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

We eat less means we shit less means we need less bathrooms and toilets. This means less housing, (smaller houses) less lumber etc. Also services like plumbing (less clogged toilets), lower water consumption (less flushing), so utilities also will have problems.

 

This is good, we're decreasing carbon footprint, a step in the right direction for humanity.

 

13 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Longer term, less obesity will mean higher life expectancy which will destroy social security.

 

Damn it, now this ruins it. Higher life expectancy will cancel out the loss in carbon footprint and the poles will keep melting and we will all cease because of a flood.

[CorpRaider]

Want to bat around/track some opportunities that may be created by this move by Mr. Market?  How about distillers?  Let's see we've got: RI.SBF (Pernod Ricard SA, nearly cheap enough imo at ~ 17x earnings, like relation of agents to capital but I'm scared of the societal contract with my capital being in France), 2) BF.A (not cheap enough yet to get serious IMOP; brands are kind of mid; not as likely to benefit from premium trends/growth of wealth/status displays; have family control/potential for someone with skin in game to influence course of action), 3) RCO.sbf (Remy...same as Pernod; not as cheap maybe a little better bidness), 4) DEO (nearly to a market multiple, has a fair amount of mid/tired brands imop, ok with UK domicile but have agent principle concerns).  Who am I missing...2503 JPN Kirin?

Edited October 13, 2023 by CorpRaider

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Jeffries analyst says United Airline would save $80M/year due to GLP-1 if the average passenger weight falls by 10 pounds. Less weight and load leading to less fuel consumption.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Anyone think athletic wear brands are worth buying hear? They probably have a huge tailwind from GLP-1. Lululemon, Under Armour etc.

[Dinar]

5 hours ago, CorpRaider said:

Want to bat around/track some opportunities that may be created by this move by Mr. Market?  How about distillers?  Let's see we've got: RI.SBF (Pernod Ricard SA, nearly cheap enough imo at ~ 17x earnings, like relation of agents to capital but I'm scared of the societal contract with my capital being in France), 2) BF.A (not cheap enough yet to get serious IMOP; brands are kind of mid; not as likely to benefit from premium trends/growth of wealth/status displays; have family control/potential for someone with skin in game to influence course of action), 3) RCO.sbf (Remy...same as Pernod; not as cheap maybe a little better bidness), 4) DEO (nearly to a market multiple, has a fair amount of mid/tired brands imop, ok with UK domicile but have agent principle concerns).  Who am I missing...2503 JPN Kirin?

Keep in mind that for something like Remy Cointreau, profits are much higher than free cash flow because you are selling product that was set aside 10-40 years ago.  On a replacement cost basis, earnings would be 10-15% lower, and you can see free cash flow is about 20% lower than net income.  

[Fly]

3 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Jeffries analyst says United Airline would save $80M/year due to GLP-1 if the average passenger weight falls by 10 pounds. Less weight and load leading to less fuel consumption.

 

This all seems way overdone. Sure, the $80m savings if everyone loses 10lbs makes sense but how likely is it that the majority of the flying public gets on GLP-1 and loses 10lbs? I'll believe that when I see it. 

[whatstheofficerproblem]

7 minutes ago, Fly said:

 

This all seems way overdone. Sure, the $80m savings if everyone loses 10lbs makes sense but how likely is it that the majority of the flying public gets on GLP-1 and loses 10lbs? I'll believe that when I see it. 

 

They didn't say this will happen in the interim. Those guys made a generalization as to show off the future tailwinds caused by GLP-1 and when this becomes generic, a good portion of the population will be on it.

[Gregmal]

This is a new fad. Not the weight loss, but the AI like market obsession occurring where we extrapolate all these massively disruptive things that are supposedly gonna happen. 

[brobro777]

Boy I do love me some Lay's BBQ chips. 

 

Is it time to buy up some PEP? Sure it could go down further from here, but over the long run I'll make out okay, no?