Analyzing Brett Horn

[SafetyinNumbers]

32 minutes ago, Viking said:

 

@73 Reds , Morningstar's 'analysis' of Fairfax is a head scratcher for me.

Morningstar is a quant screen and when thought of in that way it makes total sense. Brett could help increase the target price by having realistic estimates beyond the next two years and by increasing his view on the quality of the moat but he covers 20+ other companies and some of them screen well. The target price is calculated by Morningstar’s model so that’s why his estimates and moat assessment are important.
 

As a big data exercise it makes total sense but to an idiosyncratic investor it’s nonsense.

[Mystery Guest]

Brent Horn and the like 

 

Quite Frankly I used to look for these lukewarm receptions to solid reports as a sign my undervalued thesis was correct, and yet I still had more time to add to my position...  It has been a profitable directional indicator a few times. 

Brent Horn is telling me what his audience still wants to hear from him.  On the flip side things are about to get very ugly once everyone is singing the praises of the CEO... and there is no dissenting opinion.  Why have they not closed out the swaps .... We are not there yet.   

[TwoCitiesCapital]

18 hours ago, Hoodlum said:

I am beginning to think his analysis is AI generated. 

 

Maybe not AI generated. I'd expect AI would do a better job!

 

I'm guessing he has some flawed model that he  just plugs numbers into without any sort of critical thought as to whether the output makes any sense. 

 

I mean, for f*cks sake, the interest income alone would make his price target only 10-12x of earnings w/o considering ANY addition from equities, minority interests, or insurance contributing....

 

In what world does $1,290 CAD make any sense?!?!? 

Edited Sunday at 08:11 PM by TwoCitiesCapital

[Santayana]

3 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

In what world does $1,290 CAD make any sense?!?!? 

To come up with that price he has to be projecting massive destruction of value somewhere else given the interest income situation.  And he actually admits that the insurance and investment legs are both doing well.  It doesn't make sense.

[Crip1]

Consistency bias:

 

Even when it acts against our best interest our tendency is to be consistent with our prior commitments, ideas, thoughts, words, and actions. As a byproduct of confirmation bias, we rarely seek disconfirming evidence of what we believe. This, after all, makes it easier to maintain our positive self-image.

 

-Crip