Is Europe becoming uninvestable?

[Marco Van Basten]

5 hours ago, Charlie said:

 

These are totally oversimplified platitudes like "all americans are Trump fans" or something like that.

Have you ever been in Europe?

The opinions of people are as diverse as in the US.

The problem with this totally simplified platitudes is that you are not convincing anybody here, but you are hammering these ideas

deeper in your head and repeat them endlessly in this thread. 

 

Of course there are problems in Europe, but we have a good functioning democracy, no ICE, no gun problem and no fentanyl problem.

You can live very good in Europe, perhaps better than in the U.S. 

 

i agree that you can live a very good life in Europe, particularly if you are already wealthy.  However, dress as a religious Jew and walk in poor neighborhoods of France, Germany, Belgium, UK and Netherlands and see what happens to you!

[Sweet]

The UK is reportedly going to tax homes over 2 million, a so-called ‘Manson tax’, and slap on a levy on bank profits.  So yeh, becoming more uninvestable - and the chancellor can’t figure out why

[Dalal.Holdings]

2 hours ago, Sweet said:

The UK is reportedly going to tax homes over 2 million, a so-called ‘Manson tax’, and slap on a levy on bank profits.  So yeh, becoming more uninvestable - and the chancellor can’t figure out why

 

Disincentivize the wealthy from staying. Disincentivize people from working. Incentivize migrants to come in for free benefits.

 

"Show me the incentives and I'll show you the outcome"

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze6r2zk5d3o

 

Quote

Reform UK would stop people with anxiety disorders from claiming Personal Independence Payments (Pip), the party's welfare spokesman Lee Anderson has announced.

 

The fact that this is a position of the "far right" party shows you how far to the left the mainstream in the UK has gone.

 

Quote

Government figures show one in 10 people of working age are now on disability or sickness benefits of some type, including Pip, which can be claimed at the same time as being employed.

 

Quote

A spokesperson from the mental health charity Mind said anxiety could have a "debilitating" impact and people with the condition could also be suffering multiple health issues.

Quote

 

Working-age health-related benefits are estimated to cost an extra £30bn by 2029 and claims for psychiatric disorders, including anxiety and depression, make up 40% of the claims.

Quote

Reform's head of policy Zia Yusuf said the number of under-25s on Pip payments for poor mental health had tripled in the last five years.

 

Once again, the charities, non-profits, and NGOs in Europe work to tug on people's heartstrings and get politicians to enact economically catastrophic policies.

 

Edited November 24, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Sweet]

8 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze6r2zk5d3o

 

 

The fact that this is a position of the "far right" party shows you how far to the left the mainstream in the UK has gone.

 

 

 

Once again, the charities, non-profits, and NGOs in Europe work to tug on people's heartstrings and get politicians to enact economically catastrophic policies.

 

Correct policy.  Disability benefits are handed to to way to many people.  Compassion has been weaponised against people and we pay out for all sorts of ludicrous nonsense.  Reform’s policies would have centre right 30 years ago so the idea that they are ‘far-right’ is woke lefty nonsense.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-25/merz-asks-corporate-germany-for-patience-with-economic-reforms

 

Quote

Chancellor Friedrich Merz asked German business leaders for patience to allow measures enacted by his ruling coalition to revive growth time to take effect.

The conservative leader, who took office in early May, has made lifting Europe’s biggest economy out of its prolonged slump a top priority for his alliance with the Social Democrats.

But gross domestic product has barely expanded this year and growth isn’t expected to accelerate to more than about 1% in 2026, despite a massive debt-financed spending program for infrastructure and defense.

 

Keynesian spending works best when you get the money out of the door quickly...

 

Quote

He promised that his priority will remain restoring meaningful growth to the economy, saying that “nothing and nobody will deter me from achieving this goal.”

“Right-wing populism is not the answer,” he added, in a reference to the AfD. “Look at the history books and see what happened. Too many patterns are repeating themselves today, patterns we’ve all seen before.”

 

The rise of AfD in polls is breathing down his neck

[formthirteen]

Thoughts From the Road - Europe

https://www.kkr.com/content/dam/kkr/insights/pdf/thoughts-from-the-road-europe-november-2025.pdf

 

Quote

we still think that European risk assets are likely
to continue their positive momentum in 2026, as Europe’s
valuation gap relative to growth (Exhibit 1) and underweight
positioning by the investment community are creating sig-
nificant opportunities, especially on the private side, while
the ECB’s policy impulse is now reaching the real economy,
thus making financial conditions less restrictive.

 

 

Cycles:

Edited November 26, 2025 by formthirteen

[Dalal.Holdings]

On 11/26/2025 at 1:41 AM, formthirteen said:

Thoughts From the Road - Europe

https://www.kkr.com/content/dam/kkr/insights/pdf/thoughts-from-the-road-europe-november-2025.pdf

 

 

 

Cycles:

Everyone knows Europe is cheaper than the U.S. The question is whether it's deserved. So far, a lot of the valuation gap has been well deserved.

 

At the end of the day, Europeans need to be the ones to prove that the valuation gap is not deserved.

 

Edited November 29, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.ft.com/content/f54b8dcd-da64-49f4-b0df-fb39380e9943

 

Quote

Germany’s Friedrich Merz will request that Brussels scrap its strict ban on combustion engine cars and allow hybrid vehicles beyond its 2035 deadline, as the conservative chancellor seeks to ease the problems in his country’s automotive industry.

Quote

Under pressure from right-wing parties and the car industry, the European Commission has brought forward a review of the 2035 ban, originally due next year, to December 10.

 

Europeans will have to decide which one to give into: crazy environmentalist nut-jobs or pretty much their entire industrial sector. I guess we'll see which ones they choose.

 

Here is the top comment on the article:

Quote

The mandate of the EU needs to be shrunk. Almost everything embraced by the Brussels Berlaymont turns to dust. Solution: simply remove their policy mandates over:

 

1. Energy policy

2. Environmental policy

3. Social policy

4. Immigration policy

5. Defence and security policy (leave it to NATO)

6. Digital economy policy

7. Fisheries policy

8. Foreign policy

 

Return the EU to the EEC and confine its powers to trade, single market in goods and agrifoods. Almost everything the EU has got its hands on, post the Maastricht Treaty it has made a mess of. Result: Europe is heading to tourist museum status.

 

Edited November 29, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[cubsfan]

Pretty interesting 3/4 minutes regarding funding a new business in Europe by an entrepreneur.  It's at the 17 minute mark:

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-eisman-playbook/id1818671690?i=1000738823969

[NnnnotSoSmart]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Pretty interesting 3/4 minutes regarding funding a new business in Europe by an entrepreneur.  It's at the 17 minute mark:

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-eisman-playbook/id1818671690?i=1000738823969

Ditto. Same podcast here on You Tube. Why starting a business in Europe is so difficult (17:30 min):

"The reason  Europe is always falling behind, despite having the resources, is the "mentality".

[Charlie]

7 hours ago, NnnnotSoSmart said:

Ditto. Same podcast here on You Tube. Why starting a business in Europe is so difficult (17:30 min):

 

You guys are all fooling yourself!

 

I have been self-employed in Germany in different businesses all my life.

 

Nothing was easier than that.

 

If you have a great business idea you just start.... 

 

What is really a problem here is a shortage of skilled workers and immigration

helps to solve the problem to some extent!!! 

 

 

Demographic problem:

 

Germany and Italy both face demographic problems, primarily characterized by aging populations and low birth rates, but they differ in specific challenges. Germany's issue is a long-term declining population that relies heavily on immigration to offset high death rates, while Italy's problem is more acute, with an aging population and a population decline exacerbated by a critical brain drain and very low fertility rates. 

 

Germany

• Aging population: The baby boomer generation is moving into retirement, accelerating the aging of society.
• Low birth rate: Since 1972, more people have died each year than have been born.
• Population decline: Without immigration, the population would shrink significantly.
• Reliance on immigration: High levels of immigration have been necessary to maintain the population, but aging society is still a problem.
• Policy response: Germany is focusing on immigration, improving work-life balance to support higher birth rates, and adapting institutions to its aging and declining population. 

 

Italy

• Aging population: Italy has the oldest population in Europe, with the highest median age.
• Very low birth rate: The birth rate is one of the lowest in Europe, with fertility rates around 1.2 children per woman.
• Population decline: The population has been shrinking due to low births and emigration.
• Brain drain: There is a significant "brain drain," with skilled workers emigrating to other countries, worsening the situation.
• Policy response: The government is attempting to address the crisis through initiatives to train, attract, and keep skilled workers, though the problem is considered very deep-seated. 

 

The consequences:

1. The demographic problem hurts GDP growth.

So in theory we need much more immigration of highly skilled workers, not less....

 

2. If you really want to buy a nice cheap house in Europe 

look in Italy. 

Edited November 30, 2025 by Charlie

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Charlie said:

You guys are fooling all yourself!

 

I have been self employed in Germany in different businesses all my life.

 

Nothing was easier than that.

 

If you have a great business idea you just start....

 

Good morning, Charlie [ @Charlie ] !,

 

It matters in casu a lot that you here are posting as exactly a German CofB&F member! -  - As Dane, I haven't so far been able to carry the message forward and through, that from a stockpickers perspective that's not an obstacle, but an opportunity!

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

More later about this, here!

 

-Perhaps later today, perhaps another day, depending on my mood! Such much irrelevant nonsence and garbage posted in this topic, infecting the topic all over the place [, while the topic as such has a lot of merit! - Europe is certanly far from perfect!], posted by American CofB&F members, with no real knowledge about status quo, just looking up all kinds off stuff, laying around on the Web out there, some times posts without stating any kind of original source, at best with source specified, but no source critism performed, still posted without any source critism, at best perhaps 'my wife is of European origin!'. 

Edited November 30, 2025 by John Hjorth

[Charlie]

4 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

-Perhaps later today, perhaps another day, depending on my mood! Such much irrelevant nonsence and garbage posted in this topic, infecting the topic all over the place [, while the topic as such has a lot of merit! - Europe is certanly far from perfect!], posted by American CofB&F members, with no real knowledge about status quo, just looking up all kinds off stuff, laying around on the Web out there, sometimes posts without stating any kind of original source, at best with source specified, but no source critism performed,still posted without any source critism, 'at best perhaps 'my wife is of European origin!'. 

 

@John Hjorth 

[Dalal.Holdings]

5 hours ago, Charlie said:

 

You guys are all fooling yourself!

 

I have been self-employed in Germany in different businesses all my life.

 

Nothing was easier than that.

 

If you have a great business idea you just start.... 

 

What is really a problem here is a shortage of skilled workers and immigration

helps to solve the problem to some extent!!! 

 

 

Demographic problem:

 

Germany and Italy both face demographic problems, primarily characterized by aging populations and low birth rates, but they differ in specific challenges. Germany's issue is a long-term declining population that relies heavily on immigration to offset high death rates, while Italy's problem is more acute, with an aging population and a population decline exacerbated by a critical brain drain and very low fertility rates. 

 

Germany

• Aging population: The baby boomer generation is moving into retirement, accelerating the aging of society.
• Low birth rate: Since 1972, more people have died each year than have been born.
• Population decline: Without immigration, the population would shrink significantly.
• Reliance on immigration: High levels of immigration have been necessary to maintain the population, but aging society is still a problem.
• Policy response: Germany is focusing on immigration, improving work-life balance to support higher birth rates, and adapting institutions to its aging and declining population. 

 

Italy

• Aging population: Italy has the oldest population in Europe, with the highest median age.
• Very low birth rate: The birth rate is one of the lowest in Europe, with fertility rates around 1.2 children per woman.
• Population decline: The population has been shrinking due to low births and emigration.
• Brain drain: There is a significant "brain drain," with skilled workers emigrating to other countries, worsening the situation.
• Policy response: The government is attempting to address the crisis through initiatives to train, attract, and keep skilled workers, though the problem is considered very deep-seated. 

 

The consequences:

1. The demographic problem hurts GDP growth.

So in theory we need much more immigration of highly skilled workers, not less....

 

2. If you really want to buy a nice cheap house in Europe 

look in Italy. 

 

This sounds like something generated by Chat GPT.

 

Germany has a shortage of immigrants? Germany imported over a million Syrian migrants...they are collecting lots of government benefits with high unemployment rates. Your argument is what Angela and her gang used to justify letting these migrants settle in Germany. Why isn't it working out?

 

You may have had an easy time setting up businesses 10+ years ago, but it's only in recent years that EU regulations have come into force: GDPR, EUDR, DSA, DMA, ESG reporting, etc etc. Try setting up some of those same businesses now ...

 

And you haven't addressed the core issue which is that productivity (output per worker) is stagnant which has little to do with overall population.

[Charlie]

2 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

And you haven't addressed the core issue which is that productivity (output per worker) is stagnant which has little to do with overall population.

 

GDP per capita is the important figure. 

 

As I said before there is a shortage of skilled workers and that is partly solved by immigrants.

 

There is a negative Headwind/Lollapalooza Effect in Germany going on:

Increased competition in the auto industry, a shortage of skilled workers,

tariffs from the U.S.A., less demand from China through higher competition

and probably higher energy prices.

 

On the other side wealth seems to be much better distributed than in the U.S.,

Europe is a big market, we try to reduce bureaucracy, we have a democracy,

we make good products, we have no corrupt, criminal president and low inflation.

 

Profitability has always been higher with U.S companies.

That´s one the reasons why Buffett mostly invest in US companies.

That´s the reason why I mostly invest in US companies. 

 

Micro trumps Macro.

 

 

Edited November 30, 2025 by Charlie

[Dalal.Holdings]

1 hour ago, Charlie said:

 

GDP per capita is the important figure. 

 

As I said before there is a shortage of skilled workers and that is partly solved by immigrants.

 

There is a negative Headwind/Lollapalooza Effect in Germany going on:

Increased competition in the auto industry, a shortage of skilled workers,

tariffs from the U.S.A., less demand from China through higher competition

and probably higher energy prices.

 

On the other side wealth seems to be much better distributed than in the U.S.,

Europe is a big market, we try to reduce bureaucracy, we have a democracy,

we make good products, we have no corrupt, criminal president and low inflation.

 

Profitability has always been higher with U.S companies.

That´s one the reasons why Buffett mostly invest in US companies.

That´s the reason why I mostly invest in US companies. 

 

Micro trumps Macro.

 

 

 

Yes, you and a lot of Europeans invest mostly in U.S. companies. I don’t think that’s a good thing for Europe and you’re seeing it play out. And a bunch of Europeans are buying overpriced Mag 7 stuff in the U.S. so it’s doubly vulnerable.

 

“Shortage of skilled workers”: you’ll have to address why that is. Why you cannot attract or retain such migrants and instead are taking unskilled migrants by the literal boatload.

 

“Corrupt president”: It’s always amazes me how much Europeans focus on the American President. Even Financial outlets like the FT always have a Trump related headline at the top of the page. The problem is that what *should* take up that spot in the paper and European minds is all the problems facing Europe which they, like you, seem to hand-wave away.

 

Case in point is Ukraine-Russia: Europeans are furious about Trump’s dealings, but they take no agency. Their countries have not offered to take the place of the U.S. in intelligence sharing/etc. 

 

Also amazing how much Europeans like trashing Trump/etc routinely but then when someone makes a critical comment about Europe, they get super butthurt.

 

Your democracy is also fragile as you try to cancel political parties and candidates you do not like while trying to pass chat control, restrict free speech etc.

 

”Reduce bureaucracy ”? Maybe only started this year due to the prodding of Trump administration and Europe staring straight at a competitiveness crisis with China and the U.S.

[cubsfan]

47 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Yes, you and a lot of Europeans invest mostly in U.S. companies. I don’t think that’s a good thing for Europe and you’re seeing it play out. And a bunch of Europeans are buying overpriced Mag 7 stuff in the U.S. so it’s doubly vulnerable.

 

“Shortage of skilled workers”: you’ll have to address why that is. Why you cannot attract or retain such migrants and instead are taking unskilled migrants by the literal boatload.

 

“Corrupt president”: It’s always amazes me how much Europeans focus on the American President. Even Financial outlets like the FT always have a Trump related headline at the top of the page. The problem is that what *should* take up that spot in the paper and European minds is all the problems facing Europe which they, like you, seem to hand-wave away.

 

Case in point is Ukraine-Russia: Europeans are furious about Trump’s dealings, but they take no agency. Their countries have not offered to take the place of the U.S. in intelligence sharing/etc. 

 

Also amazing how much Europeans like trashing Trump/etc routinely but then when someone makes a critical comment about Europe, they get super butthurt.

 

Your democracy is also fragile as you try to cancel political parties and candidates you do not like while trying to pass chat control, restrict free speech etc.

 

”Reduce bureaucracy ”? Maybe only started this year due to the prodding of Trump administration and Europe staring straight at a competitiveness crisis with China and the U.S.

 

Of course the idiot leaders of Europe have to turn the spotlight to Trump - they have sold their own citizens down the river and are clinging to power. Look at Macron and Starmer - barely hanging on.

They can't admit that Trump "told them so" - 8 years ago that NATO was headed to disaster because they ignore funding it. That their ridiculous climate change policies would enrich Russia and make them non-competitive. That uncontrolled immigration would destroy their cultures. That eliminating free and fair debate among citizens would mean suppressing Free Speech.

 

They need to keep that shit out of the papers. The last thing they want is to be held responsible, lest they lose power so disgracefully. Heck, now they even jail you for social media posts!

 

Much easier to blame Trump.

[Dalal.Holdings]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

 

Of course the idiot leaders of Europe have to turn the spotlight to Trump - they have sold their own citizens down the river and are clinging to power. Look at Macron and Starmer - barely hanging on.

They can't admit that Trump "told them so" - 8 years ago that NATO was headed to disaster because they ignore funding it. That their ridiculous climate change policies would enrich Russia and make them non-competitive. That uncontrolled immigration would destroy their cultures. That eliminating free and fair debate among citizens would mean suppressing Free Speech.

 

They need to keep that shit out of the papers. The last thing they want is to be held responsible, lest they lose power so disgracefully. Heck, now they even jail you for social media posts!

 

Much easier to blame Trump.

 

Yep, here's the mindset from a bunch of Europeans:

 

Say Europe is fine, blame Trump, call America extremely corrupt, then say "I invest mostly in U.S. companies instead of European ones--even though U.S. valuations are higher"!  

 

Their money and their mouths are saying totally different things!

 

Edited November 30, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Charlie]

48 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Yep, here's the mindset from a bunch of Europeans:

 

Say Europe is fine, blame Trump, call America extremely corrupt, then say "I invest mostly in U.S. companies instead of European ones--even though U.S. valuations are higher"!  

 

Their money and their mouths are saying totally different things!

 

John Hjorth and me with our outsized Berkshire positions can only smile about some comments. 

[John Hjorth]

3 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Yep, here's the mindset from a bunch of Europeans:

 

Say Europe is fine, blame Trump, call America extremely corrupt, then say "I invest mostly in U.S. companies instead of European ones--even though U.S. valuations are higher"!  

 

Their money and their mouths are saying totally different things!

 

 

2 hours ago, Charlie said:

John Hjorth and me with our outsized Berkshire positions can only smile about some comments. 

 

@Charlie, once again, you just nailed it! ... Oh, wait... - perhaps it's' tragi-comic' instead!

 

[, If that is even actually an adjective in English - language barriers are a fascinating phenomen to study, when it's taken to it's limits. [Last time this fascination popped up at me was when I realized in English language there is no lingual difference available to distinguish by sex, gender among female and male cousins- And this is the worlds most applied and generally accepted as the common denominator world wide for business communication? - Simply thought-provoking! [English for a male cousin : cousin, German : vetter, Danish : Fætter, English for a female cousin : cousin, German : Cousine, kusine, Danish : kusine]].][Not that long ago, I signed up for simultaneous access to 16 disctonaries online, at www.ordbogen.com, for an absolutely nominal monthly fee.]

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Some chase yield, reaching for the stars, others are more interested in risk-adjusted returns and staying power, and shy of leverage, because we have realized that there isen't enough time left, available to start all over again! - To win, first you have to finish!

 

[I still remember a here unspecified, unmentioned by name, board handle, CofB&F member, trash talking Bill Ackmans risk management, the bets continually getting bigger and bigger, and suddenly going silent, dark, after some time a client, LP of that person coming into here, trash talking that very person, reaonable annoyed by loosing a not immaterial part  [, or the whole?] of the principal!- CofB&F is a great classroom!]

[Dalal.Holdings]

I pray for the day when investment opportunities in Europe will be plentiful and its citizens don't have to send most of their capital across the Atlantic to our shores 

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-30/global-stock-leaderboards-are-ruled-by-europe-in-rare-dominance

 

Quote

• The Stoxx 600 Index is closing in on its biggest outperformance over the S&P 500 since 2006 in dollars, with some investors saying the outlook for Europe is only looking up.

 

The pessimism in Europe is high while the potential is large. That is why I am invested there. I put a bunch of retirement stuff that I can't invest in individual stocks in non-U.S. large cap fund (mostly European large caps) about a year ago and it has crushed the S&P. Of course, a lot of this is simply due to the fact that the Euro is up 11% vs USD YTD so it's not a huge celebration in Euro equities themselves

 

I am hopeful Europeans will get it and fix some of their major issues...the potential could be large if they figure it out. At least some of the European members on here seem to understand the gravity of the situation and I am also seeing encouraging signs on social media:

 

 

 

Edited December 1, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.ft.com/content/89f172bb-0d60-47b0-ae56-853d25c52db8

 

Quote

The second thing to address are Europe’s large exports of capital. They do not flow to America only, but the domestic financing scarcity they cause worsens European vulnerability to a hostile US. When leaders struggle to fund necessary public and private investments, and Europe’s best and brightest move stateside to finance their companies’ growth, the EU should not be sending up to half a trillion euros’ worth of net savings outside the bloc every year.

Quote

Finally, Europe needs a homegrown alternative to the strategic military capabilities for which it now depends on the US. Economists Philipp Hildebrand, Hélène Rey and Moritz Schularick have developed a framework for common European financing by a coalition of willing countries to build self-sufficiency. The blueprint is circulating at the highest levels in France and Germany. It is to be hoped that they, and other countries, rally behind it fast.

Quote

Europe’s dependence on the US is not a given, but the learned helplessness of 80 years. Unlearning it must start now.

 

The drumbeat grows louder...

[NnnnotSoSmart]

Europe’s Green Energy Rush Slashed Emissions—and Crippled the Economy

Political consensus is cracking, industry is hobbled and high-profile projects are being postponed thanks to some of the highest electricity prices in the developed world

 

By 
Tom Fairless
 and 
Max Colchester

Dec. 1, 2025 at 9:00 pm ET

European politicians pitched the continent’s green transition to voters as a win-win: Citizens would benefit from green jobs and cheap, abundant solar and wind energy alongside a sharp reduction in carbon emissions.  

 

Nearly two decades on, the promise has largely proved costly for consumers and damaging for the economy.

 

Europe has succeeded in slashing carbon emissions more than any other region—by 30% from 2005 levels, compared with a 17% drop for the U.S. But along the way, the rush to renewables has helped drive up electricity prices in much of the continent.

 

Germany now has the highest domestic electricity prices in the developed world, while the U.K. has the highest industrial electricity rates, according to a basket of 28 major economies analyzed by the International Energy Agency. Italy isn’t far behind. Average electricity prices for heavy industries in the European Union remain roughly twice those in the U.S. and 50% above China. Energy prices have also grown more volatile as the share of renewables increased.

 

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/europes-green-energy-rush-slashed-emissionsand-crippled-the-economy-e65a1a07?st=iZzHK3&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink