Is Europe becoming uninvestable?

[kab60]

2 hours ago, thowed said:

 

Pretty good summary of how the the World ex-America are thinking, I'd say

 

 

There was a survey in Denmark the other day. Trump was the biggest worry amongst people - above things like war. We can debate whether that's reasonable, but I think some things have changed permanently, and I still can't fathom what Trump is trying to achieve. It seems like he is destroying decades of goodwill to achieve some plan that I can't quite envision.

 

As an outsider, it looked like America basically had it all - and any issues could be dealt with internally, if people actually wanted to deal with it (like why do you push tax cuts through when running a humongous deficit?). Lots of highly skilled immigration (and well as lowly skilled...). A massive funding advantage, as equity and debt was dirt-cheap. Cheap energy produced locally, or importered very cheaply from Canada, as they couldn't get out of their own way.

 

And then there's all the dominant tech-companies, which are a massive money-printer but also pretty easy for other countries to tax, if they want to. Most of what America produces is either nice to have or with decent local alternatives (McD, Starbucks, Nike). I wonder if some of those iconic brands - brands that has derived value from Americas position globally - will see headwinds going forward. 

 

Now he's alienating his biggest trade partner (Canada) and 500m Europeans to cozy up to 100m Russians that have what - a murderous dictator and a bit of oil and gas but really is an economic minnow? I mean, the combined GDP of the Nordic countries is approximately the same size as Russia's GDP. Like what does he need Russia for?

 

I'm baffled to say the least. And even if I think he'll have to backtrack on a lot of what he has said and done (it seems to be starting already), things have permanently changed. Just look at Germany. What's happening there is huge.

 

If Europe can't count on the US, why shouldn't Europe just grow stronger ties to China? Last I checked, they haven't threatened either Canada, Greenland or Panama.

 

I don't know this guy here, but it's a pretty good speech and probably reflective of not just how Canadians feel, but Europeans too: 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 6, 2025 by kab60

[rogermunibond]

[backtothebeach]

12 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

Can you show since August 14, 2023, when this thread was started?

[rogermunibond]

[Charlie]

5 hours ago, kab60 said:

There was a survey in Denmark the other day. Trump was the biggest worry amongst people - above things like war. We can debate whether that's reasonable, but I think some things have changed permanently, and I still can't fathom what Trump is trying to achieve. It seems like he is destroying decades of goodwill to achieve some plan that I can't quite envision.

 

As an outsider, it looked like America basically had it all - and any issues could be dealt with internally, if people actually wanted to deal with it (like why do you push tax cuts through when running a humongous deficit?). Lots of highly skilled immigration (and well as lowly skilled...). A massive funding advantage, as equity and debt was dirt-cheap. Cheap energy produced locally, or importered very cheaply from Canada, as they couldn't get out of their own way.

 

And then there's all the dominant tech-companies, which are a massive money-printer but also pretty easy for other countries to tax, if they want to. Most of what America produces is either nice to have or with decent local alternatives (McD, Starbucks, Nike). I wonder if some of those iconic brands - brands that has derived value from Americas position globally - will see headwinds going forward. 

 

Now he's alienating his biggest trade partner (Canada) and 500m Europeans to cozy up to 100m Russians that have what - a murderous dictator and a bit of oil and gas but really is an economic minnow? I mean, the combined GDP of the Nordic countries is approximately the same size as Russia's GDP. Like what does he need Russia for?

 

I'm baffled to say the least. And even if I think he'll have to backtrack on a lot of what he has said and done (it seems to be starting already), things have permanently changed. Just look at Germany. What's happening there is huge.

 

If Europe can't count on the US, why shouldn't Europe just grow stronger ties to China? Last I checked, they haven't threatened either Canada, Greenland or Panama.

 

I don't know this guy here, but it's a pretty good speech and probably reflective of not just how Canadians feel, but Europeans too: 

 

+1

One of the big problems with Trump is that he doesn´t believe in win-win.

He believes in win-lose and playing with the fear of other people/countries.

The other problem with Trump is that he has a massive "Man with only 1 hammer syndrom":

Deal, deal, deal.... and nothing else.

[whiskybravo]

43 minutes ago, Charlie said:

 

+1

One of the big problems with Trump is that he doesn´t believe in win-win.

He believes in win-lose and playing with the fear of other people/countries.

The other problem with Trump is that he has a massive "Man with only 1 hammer syndrom":

Deal, deal, deal.... and nothing else.

In current arrangements, he believes the other side is taking advantage of the United States.  Not saying he is right.  As far as deals as infinitum, I believe he thinks there is so much to be put right that he will be plenty busy for four years.

[Spooky]

6 hours ago, kab60 said:

 

There was a survey in Denmark the other day. Trump was the biggest worry amongst people - above things like war. We can debate whether that's reasonable, but I think some things have changed permanently, and I still can't fathom what Trump is trying to achieve. It seems like he is destroying decades of goodwill to achieve some plan that I can't quite envision.

 

As an outsider, it looked like America basically had it all - and any issues could be dealt with internally, if people actually wanted to deal with it (like why do you push tax cuts through when running a humongous deficit?). Lots of highly skilled immigration (and well as lowly skilled...). A massive funding advantage, as equity and debt was dirt-cheap. Cheap energy produced locally, or importered very cheaply from Canada, as they couldn't get out of their own way.

 

And then there's all the dominant tech-companies, which are a massive money-printer but also pretty easy for other countries to tax, if they want to. Most of what America produces is either nice to have or with decent local alternatives (McD, Starbucks, Nike). I wonder if some of those iconic brands - brands that has derived value from Americas position globally - will see headwinds going forward. 

 

Now he's alienating his biggest trade partner (Canada) and 500m Europeans to cozy up to 100m Russians that have what - a murderous dictator and a bit of oil and gas but really is an economic minnow? I mean, the combined GDP of the Nordic countries is approximately the same size as Russia's GDP. Like what does he need Russia for?

 

I'm baffled to say the least. And even if I think he'll have to backtrack on a lot of what he has said and done (it seems to be starting already), things have permanently changed. Just look at Germany. What's happening there is huge.

 

If Europe can't count on the US, why shouldn't Europe just grow stronger ties to China? Last I checked, they haven't threatened either Canada, Greenland or Panama.

 

I don't know this guy here, but it's a pretty good speech and probably reflective of not just how Canadians feel, but Europeans too: 

 

 

 

 

 

Agree with everything you wrote. To me it does not seem like Trump's administration has any kind of grand plan or vision. They are just throwing things at a wall to see what will stick and try and get some political wins. They are also punching down and bullying weaker parties.

[rogermunibond]

He and his administration are incapable of reworking the current global monetary/trade imbalances.  Wrong temperament, wrong approach, and wrong talent.

 

Prior to the election Bessent said that what they were trying to do might take ten years.  In the meantime, the confusion, chaos, and reduced economic activity would ensure a global depression.

 

Trump's not stupid.  He doesn't have ten years.  Mexico, Canada and ROW aren't stupid either.  They've called his bluff.

 

[cubsfan]

8 minutes ago, Spooky said:

 

Agree with everything you wrote. To me it does not seem like Trump's administration has any kind of grand plan or vision. They are just throwing things at a wall to see what will stick and try and get some political wins. They are also punching down and bullying weaker parties.

 

Trump punching down against Europe, China & Canada - maybe Russia will save him?

 

How laughable.

[nsx5200]

1 hour ago, Charlie said:

One of the big problems with Trump is that he doesn´t believe in win-win.

He believes in win-lose and playing with the fear of other people/countries.

The other problem with Trump is that he has a massive "Man with only 1 hammer syndrom":

Deal, deal, deal.... and nothing else.

+1.  It's been proven many times before, one of which is the experiments of Smoot-Hawley that reducing trade is a lose-lose.  Conversely, increasing trade is a win-win.  Though the way China approached 'free' trade is, IMHO, one-sided and can use a correction.

 

A, IMHO, proven fundamental economic principle that all macro government operator should learn.  It's times like this that I wish there was a modern version of the Imperial Examination.

[Spooky]

13 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Trump punching down against Europe, China & Canada - maybe Russia will save him?

 

How laughable.

 

Have fun with your America First platform. The world is moving on.

[cubsfan]

12 minutes ago, Spooky said:

 

Have fun with your America First platform. The world is moving on.

 

You're a big boy now Spooky. Time to move out of the house.

[Spooky]

Happy to. The house is on fire.

[backtothebeach]

2 hours ago, rogermunibond said:

 

Thank you. Turns out there is such a thing as peak negativity, even here on COBF.

[Dalal.Holdings]

On 2/10/2025 at 8:22 PM, Dalal.Holdings said:

https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/02/10/germanys-business-model-is-gone-warns-friedrich-merz

 

 

 

 

Some encouraging signs

 

Merz is all in on Keynes.

 

I bought a bunch of European stocks during my ban

[Spekulatius]

30 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Merz is all in on Keynes.

 

I bought a bunch of European stocks during my ban

Welcome back.

 

Keynes works until it doesn’t. The European economy has slack, so I think it will work.

[Dalal.Holdings]

1 minute ago, Spekulatius said:

Welcome back.

 

Keynes works until it doesn’t. The European economy has slack, so I think it will work.

The numbers being thrown around Berlin for spending are astronomical relative to Germany’s 4 Trillion Euro GDP

 

Seems to me like a certain political change in the U.S. is leaving Europe no choice but to change. But I will leave politics out of it and continue to shift more across the Atlantic

[Dalal.Holdings]

I recently added Jost Werke thanks for the idea @Spekulatius

[whiskybravo]

Welcome back to Dalal.Holdings.  My European stock suggestion is PROT.OL, which I think has the makings of a multibagger, even though it is already a multibagger.  Namely a small market cap, large market opportunity, shareholder friendly management, disciplined underwriting.

They started underwriting in France January 1st.  Lots of countries to enter over the coming years.

[Dalal.Holdings]

3 hours ago, whiskybravo said:

Welcome back to Dalal.Holdings.  My European stock suggestion is PROT.OL, which I think has the makings of a multibagger, even though it is already a multibagger.  Namely a small market cap, large market opportunity, shareholder friendly management, disciplined underwriting.

They started underwriting in France January 1st.  Lots of countries to enter over the coming years.

 

Looks like they have nice returns. I am sure they will do well. I am right now going towards defense/infrastructure in Europe. EU/UK planning nice spending packages and galvanized into forming a real defense apparatus for the first time since WW2...I think it is a seismic, historical change that will reverberate for decades. You have already seen massive moves in defense names. 

 

Germany in particular looks insane (if the Greens don't hold it up which in the end I think will not happen) if you consider the sums mentioned nearing 1 trillion Euros while Germany's GDP is 4 Trillion....and Germany has the fiscal space to make it happen. Germany has been in stagnation due to a crazy debt brake/austerity spell that is ending and ending quickly. I think it's likely Germany becomes the lead defender of continental Europe at the end of all of this

[Dalal.Holdings]

On 1/15/2025 at 7:48 PM, Spekulatius said:

 

Unidata is one I owned almost sind the IPO in 2020. Sold some when it really went off and have been adding back lately. It’s one of the cheapest stocks I am aware off.

 

Recent results look good

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Recent results look good

I just realized they published results today, although they were pre- announced already. I agree they look very solid , but it’s an unloved sector (FTTH). They have done quite a few infrastructure projects that seem to be working out well.

 https://investors.unidata.it/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/151511_oneinfo.pdf

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

5 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I just realized they published results today, although they were pre- announced already. I agree they look very solid , but it’s an unloved sector (FTTH). They have done quite a few infrastructure projects that seem to be working out well.

 https://investors.unidata.it/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/151511_oneinfo.pdf

 

 

Unlike U.S. FTTH/cable companies, this thing doesn’t have crushing debt overhang. It’s also growing pretty fast. This thing would sport a much richer valuation in the U.S.

[Spekulatius]

Europe may be uninvestible, but at least you can travel there without getting detained for a week. Happened to German citizens with valid Visa apparently. The UK has issues the same warning.

I don’t think tourism in US will be that great in the near term.

 

Edited March 21, 2025 by Spekulatius

[TwoCitiesCapital]

6 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Europe may be uninvestible, but at least you can travel there without getting detained for a week. Happened to German citizens with valid Visa apparently. The UK has issues the same warning.

I don’t think tourism in US will be that great in the near term.

 

 

Maybe this will be the toppling of the Airbnb economy that people have been anticipating for awhile.

 

Not sure how much revenue is int'l vs US - just that when I was a host in NYC it was a fair bit of both. Probably more depends on the locality. 

 

If suddenly you lose 20-30% of your bookings, can you still pay the mortgage on the property? How long does it take for you to have dump the property?