Tidbits

[nsx5200]

On 1/25/2025 at 6:12 AM, Sweet said:

This is nuts:

 

 

I'll bite when it can perform "Get me Taylor Swift tickets for under $2k", or if I feel a bit more devious, "Get me a hit person with success rate of >90% on Putin for under a mil".

 

Edit:  Add Youtube demo from OpenAI

 

Edited January 27 by nsx5200

[gfp]

https://archive.ph/Ar7Ax

 

NormR article on one of our members here - congrats on 5 years Trevor Scott / Tidefall

[Saluki]

 

 

I did not know this particular type of pump and dump existed, but it's very interesting.   

 

I noticed this guy below has over 100 videos just on Aduro.  It did really well this year and it's trading at 250x revenue 

 

I don't know if this guy got paid anything for all these videos, or if he was just talking up his book, but the world is a very weird place. 

 

[Sweet]

I get tired of listening all the Buffett and Munger quotes, but this one I’ve never heard before.

[james22]

Just back from the Miami Boat Show.

 

The vibe was very optimistic.

[gfp]

9 minutes ago, james22 said:

Just back from the Miami Boat Show.

 

The vibe was very optimistic.

 

Buy Brunswick?  Or not that kind of optimism?

[73 Reds]

21 minutes ago, james22 said:

Just back from the Miami Boat Show.

 

The vibe was very optimistic.

The vibe at the Miami Boat Show is always optimistic.  In fact the vibe throughout Florida is almost always highly optimistic.  Business friendly environment.  Government encourages growth and development.  Current Governor is pragmatic and even wants to eliminate the property tax.  Increasing number of disgruntled people from other States come here to get away from messes elsewhere.  Local sheriffs take no crap and zealously prosecute lawlessness.   Pleasant to warm sunny winters and all the opportunity one could want with no State income tax and otherwise cheaper than other similarly populated States.   

[DooDiligence]

4 hours ago, gfp said:

 

Buy Brunswick?  Or not that kind of optimism?

 

Somebody probably found a bunch of coke on a boat.

[Spekulatius]

How could a boat show not be optimistic?  If you are about to lose your job or feel lousy about the future, you aren’t going to buy a boat. A boat show is basically selling good times.

[james22]

15 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

The vibe at the Miami Boat Show is always optimistic.

 

10 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

How could a boat show not be optimistic? 

 

Sure, and I can't compare to previous shows.

 

But went on Wed (invite only) and had a chance to talk to lots of brokers - they all thought it was going to be a special year.

[Sweet]

A famous letter from former CEO Andy Grove which comes with a bit of irony given all the recent shenanigans with Intel.  It’s an article 15 years ahead of its time.  Posting it here because I can no longer find it online.

 

 

 

 

andy-grove_-how-america-can-create-jobs 2.pdf

[Ulti]

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/02/11/democrats-tricked-strong-economy-00203464?fbclid=IwY2xjawIgQqRleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHRAhfBmBwYrwpLm5p-TbhGzxXjD5W26RR4AxC2vQfsiMBNu-ZCgeYofvRA_aem_w-n5nj2efKxGZjVtMwjexQ
 

Eugene Ludwig is chair of the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity and former U.S. Comptroller of the Currency. He is author of The Vanishing American Dream: A Frank Look at the Economic Realities Facing Low- and Middle-Income Americans.

[Spekulatius]

55 minutes ago, Ulti said:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/02/11/democrats-tricked-strong-economy-00203464?fbclid=IwY2xjawIgQqRleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHRAhfBmBwYrwpLm5p-TbhGzxXjD5W26RR4AxC2vQfsiMBNu-ZCgeYofvRA_aem_w-n5nj2efKxGZjVtMwjexQ
 

Eugene Ludwig is chair of the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity and former U.S. Comptroller of the Currency. He is author of The Vanishing American Dream: A Frank Look at the Economic Realities Facing Low- and Middle-Income Americans.

Reddit critique.

 

 

Just my opinion - everyone tries to come up with alternative metrics that agree with their agenda but none seem to make much sense, if you look closer

Also, many of the issues with lower paying jobs have been a round and discussed ever since I emigrated to the US in the late 90’s and probably before that. For example, the Reagan years weren’t exactly great for the common man either, at least not in many sectors like manufacturing, farming or other that produced goods.

[Dinar]

We have never had such massive immigration in the past 100 years.  You don't need a PhD in economics to realize that more people means lower wages and higher housing costs.  Good for the wealthy, bad for the working and middle classes.    Schools have never been so bad with such ridiculously lower standards, requiring parents to spend money on tutoring so their kids could get the same education as they themselves received in public schools.  

[Gregmal]

Oh, now we’re figuring out CPI is a crock of shit and the economy is fucked for lower and middle class after Jpow “saved” us with those rate hikes? Lmfao 

[dwy000]

13 minutes ago, Dinar said:

We have never had such massive immigration in the past 100 years.  You don't need a PhD in economics to realize that more people means lower wages and higher housing costs.  Good for the wealthy, bad for the working and middle classes.    Schools have never been so bad with such ridiculously lower standards, requiring parents to spend money on tutoring so their kids could get the same education as they themselves received in public schools.  

Well the US population has tripled in the past 100 years so you would expect the number of immigrants to increase.  But the highest year ever for immigrants was 2.7mn in 2016 and it's been hovering around 2.5m each year since (except 2020 covid of course).  That's less than 1% of the population. And considering the birth rate has been steadily declining where it's now below replacement rate, it's really hard to blame immigration for housing problems, unemployment or anything else really.  An influx usually leads to growth as the infrastructure and economy expand to provide for increased demand. 

[Ulti]

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/02/yoy-measures-of-inflation-services.html?m=1
 

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Just my opinion - everyone tries to come up with alternative metrics that agree with their agenda but none seem to make much sense, if you look closer

I have to respectfully disagree…. I think there are several good sources of finance and economics that have no agenda.. Calculatedrisk blog seems one

[Spekulatius]

53 minutes ago, Ulti said:

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/02/yoy-measures-of-inflation-services.html?m=1
 

I have to respectfully disagree…. I think there are several good sources of finance and economics that have no agenda.. Calculatedrisk blog seems one

Calculatedrisk is fine, but they don’t really advertise or produce alt data. They just interpret existing data with a focus on real estate.

 

I think most alt data sources are suspect and worse than the official data we get.

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, dwy000 said:

Well the US population has tripled in the past 100 years so you would expect the number of immigrants to increase.  But the highest year ever for immigrants was 2.7mn in 2016 and it's been hovering around 2.5m each year since (except 2020 covid of course).  That's less than 1% of the population. And considering the birth rate has been steadily declining where it's now below replacement rate, it's really hard to blame immigration for housing problems, unemployment or anything else really.  An influx usually leads to growth as the infrastructure and economy expand to provide for increased demand. 

Are you saying that if the labor supply increases, there is no impact on wages?  If population grows then there is no impact on housing costs?  

[dwy000]

55 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Are you saying that if the labor supply increases, there is no impact on wages?  If population grows then there is no impact on housing costs?  

In the very, very, very short term (like weeks or months) and in a very small area there can be, but over the long term its definitely a positive.  Also, the numbers here are both very small each year and very consistent and widespread across the country so there's no shock to the system that would lead to issues from decreased wages or housing shortages.

 

The complaint from businesses these days stem from a shortage of available workers, not high unemployment. 

Edited 20 hours ago by dwy000

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, dwy000 said:

In the very, very, very short term (like weeks or months) and in a very small area there can be, but over the long term its definitely a positive.  Also, the numbers here are both very small each year and very consistent and widespread across the country so there's no shock to the system that would lead to issues from decreased wages or housing shortages.

 

The complaint from businesses these days stem from a shortage of available workers, not high unemployment. 

So if we have consistent immigration at say 1% of the US population per annum, we are going to have higher wages and lower housing costs?  Is that your argument?  As for complaint for shortage of workers - look at social support - 37% of NY State is on Medicaid, no incentive to work.  Remove the dole, and magically workers will materialize.  

[dwy000]

18 minutes ago, Dinar said:

So if we have consistent immigration at say 1% of the US population per annum, we are going to have higher wages and lower housing costs?  Is that your argument?  As for complaint for shortage of workers - look at social support - 37% of NY State is on Medicaid, no incentive to work.  Remove the dole, and magically workers will materialize.  

Consistent immigration leads to increased consumption and demand, just like any type of population growth.  That gets supplied by increased production.  Higher wages arises from a shortage of workers not an excess (much like we've seen over the past few years).  Lower housing costs comes from increased building of housing (ie production) to meet demand.

 

Every single piece of research shows that immigrants have higher employment rates than non immigrants. I'm not sure what your point about Medicaid is but it has nothing to do with immigration.  

 

Businesses are begging for more workers - at all levels of experience and education.  Even Musk wants to massively increased the H1B program.  There is not a problem out there that gets solved by stopping immigration, but there are a lot of benefits of continuing or increasing it.  Curious what your issue with immigration is?  Why do u want to stop it given its so beneficial?

Edited 19 hours ago by dwy000

[Dinar]

4 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Consistent immigration leads to increased consumption and demand, just like any type of population growth.  That gets supplied by increased production.  Higher wages arises from a shortage of workers not an excess (much like we've seen over the past few years).  Lower housing costs comes from increased building of housing (ie production) to meet demand.

 

Every single piece of research shows that immigrants have higher employment rates than non immigrants. I'm not sure what your point about Medicaid is but it has nothing to do with immigration.  

 

Businesses are begging for more workers - at all levels of experience and education.  Even Musk wants to massively increased the H1B program.  There is not a problem out there that gets solved by stopping immigration, but there are a lot of benefits of continuing or increasing it. 

We will have to agree to disagree.  I fail to see you bringing in people with 3rd grade education or 60 year olds is beneficial to the country or low skilled at $40K to replace American software engineers.    As for Medicaid, the reason for labor shortages is that it does NOT pay to work in low wage occupations due to very generous social welfare - Medicaid, food stamps, free housing, et all.  Remove welfare, and see worker shortages disappear.   NYC welfare rolls plummeted from 1MM to 400K in early 1990s after welfare reform and Giuliani's workfare for welfare recipients.  

[dwy000]

17 minutes ago, Dinar said:

We will have to agree to disagree.  I fail to see you bringing in people with 3rd grade education or 60 year olds is beneficial to the country or low skilled at $40K to replace American software engineers.    As for Medicaid, the reason for labor shortages is that it does NOT pay to work in low wage occupations due to very generous social welfare - Medicaid, food stamps, free housing, et all.  Remove welfare, and see worker shortages disappear.   NYC welfare rolls plummeted from 1MM to 400K in early 1990s after welfare reform and Giuliani's workfare for welfare recipients.  

This is getting awfully close to political so i will leave.it with this post.

 

57% of immigrants have some college or a college degree.  If you are worried about someone with a 3rd grade education, no experience and no language ability taking your job, your job isn't that secure to begin with!

 

The congressional budget office last year estimated that immigration will contribute $8.9 trillion to the US GDP from 2024 to 2034.  

 

Your issue with benefit programs disincentivizing work has zero to do with immigration and in fact appears to be more related to US born citizens than immigrants given the employment numbers. 

 

See attached.  Immigration leads to substantial reduction in deficits as wages and taxes well exceed added system costs. 60165-Immigration_250217_201042.pdf

Edited 19 hours ago by dwy000