Economic War-US/G7/West vs China (semiconductors)

[RichardGibbons]

3 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

The West...Britain, France, United States, Germany.  There's enough spilt blood by most countries, so any self-righteous stance is demeaning to any real debate.  Cheers!

 

None of these countries has committed genocide in my lifetime.  I haven't committed genocide. Nobody I voted for committed genocide.

 

So I'm baffled by how you seem to believe that I'm hypocritical in condemning genocide.

 

My best guess is that you you are viewing all human interactions through identity politics, evaluating people not as individuals, but only on their group identity. And you're implying that people are guilty in perpetuity based on the crimes committed by their countries of origins generations ago.

 

I think it's a huge mistake to view the world this way, because it encourages lots of bad things, including genocide.

 

That said, I think your position that "anyone of European ancestry can't condemn genocide" isn't based on reason. And you think I'm hypocritical for being someone of European ancestry who is willing to speak out against genocide. So I think we've kind of exhausted the discussion.

[Parsad]

47 minutes ago, RichardGibbons said:

 

None of these countries has committed genocide in my lifetime.  I haven't committed genocide. Nobody I voted for committed genocide.

 

So I'm baffled by how you seem to believe that I'm hypocritical in condemning genocide.

 

My best guess is that you you are viewing all human interactions through identity politics, evaluating people not as individuals, but only on their group identity. And you're implying that people are guilty in perpetuity based on the crimes committed by their countries of origins generations ago.

 

I think it's a huge mistake to view the world this way, because it encourages lots of bad things, including genocide.

 

That said, I think your position that "anyone of European ancestry can't condemn genocide" isn't based on reason. And you think I'm hypocritical for being someone of European ancestry who is willing to speak out against genocide. So I think we've kind of exhausted the discussion.

 

I never said that you were hypocritical in condemning genocide.  I said let's not get too self-righteous in suggesting where we see genocide, since western history is replete with acts of genocide and in massive scales. 

 

In my opinion, there is a difference between war crimes and genocide.  Almost every war will produce acts categorized as war crimes...whereas every war crime is not necessarily genocide.  

 

But you are right...this discussion is probably exhausted. 

 

Cheers!  

[Luke]

On 4/24/2024 at 6:16 PM, cubsfan said:

 

This is the typical Marxist response. Everything is the framed in the lens of "oppressor vs oppressed". Every social problem in the world is viewed as a problem with "oppressive US Capitalism". 

 

The powerful US, with its capitalist system is corrupt and US business is nothing but oppression. Once you buy that nonsense, then it easy to paint the picture of how the "plan" of the West  is to keep  the whole world down.

 

Utter nonsense. You should be more careful with your sources.

Again, zero arguments in this response. 

On 4/24/2024 at 6:23 PM, Sweet said:

Can you provide examples of how the West’s development relied on corporate espionage?

 

What non-Western nation where these corporate secrets stolen from?

There is a good book about this, kicking away the ladder by economist Ha-Joon Chang. 

[John Hjorth]

Luca [ @Luca ],

 

You definitely need to open a new topic in the COBF Books forum about this book. 

[Luke]

On 4/25/2024 at 4:39 AM, Parsad said:

Define what you mean by "real economy"?  Manufacturing today is an extremely commoditized industry with lower margins compared to yesteryear.  If that is what you define as the "real economy" then most of the Magnificent 7 would not exist.  China excelled at manufacturing for several decades because they had the cheapest labor. 

The real economy is the traditional form of capitalism where profits are made through the production of goods by expanding the economy through tangible capital formation and productive investment. Employing labor to produce and sell commodities at a markup. What the US developed into is a financialized economy where manufacturing mostly moved away to other countries while they engaged in wealth extraction through financial channels rather than production and investment. GDP growth in the US literally includes the insane 20% credit card debt US citizens are getting delinquent on now, which has 0 productive value to the economy. Then you have all this housing speculation and appreciation, investment speculation/services which are big parts of GDP, rent-seekers and high rents that push up GDP, banks that don't provide money for tangible investment but do speculation on loans which led to the financial crisis, etc. Thats 30% of the US economy...crazy. 

 

Yes, the US has a few shining star mega-cap companies and worldwide financial services providers, those are all basically monopolies. Looking at the US GDP, you can see the impact of this financialized economy, monopolies for healthcare that rip off US citizens, end-game housing market with prices unaffordable for most, and further shrinking manufacturing sector. 

 

The point is, China has been building out the real economy and owns the largest labor force worldwide, the most efficient supply chains worldwide, and now slowly the best products worldwide for a cheaper price the US could ever have. Looking at the SP 500, if the market doesn't develop in this western protectionist and war economy against the uprising economies, China can replace many of these businesses with cheaper prices simply because of the low-cost infrastructure the government provides and the fact that their economy is not controlled by these mega-services monopolies that are just very expensive for doing business. That's why the US needs tariffs and trade blockage because their companies can not survive and they arent willing to invite Chinese companies either. That's why the US can only attract manufacturing with huge subsidies. The economy with the cheapest labor pool, most efficient supply chains, and best products wins. BYD, XIAOMI, TEMU, Commodities at cheaper prices, food at cheaper prices...its only a matter of time...

On 4/25/2024 at 4:39 AM, Parsad said:

That isn't the case any more.  It is why capital is flowing to other countries, including even the U.S.  Combine that with political risk, property seizures, non-transparent accounting and reporting, difficulty moving capital out of China and lack of an equitable court system...no wonder capital is fleeing China.  Cheers!

At this point chinas economy is self-sufficient enough to develop internally. Yeah, these deflows are providing headwind but the core of china is a powerhouse and they arent bad finding partners globally either with russia, saudis, BRICS etc. Meanwhile the US faces highly inflationary forces with their derisking so I think the incentives over the longterm are pointing towards a "with China" than without. Biden playing a deficit and subsidy game but that's not sustainable. The problem is an uncompetitive manufacturing basis and dependence on foreign countries producing their expensive high margin products. I don't think it can last over time. 

 

On the other hand, things like alphabet and Microsoft will and can last but how many Americans work there...alphabet has 150k employees globally...most Americans wont feel the impact of their success, at max in their retirement funds. 

[Luke]

25 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Luca [ @Luca ],

 

You definitely need to open a new topic in the COBF Books forum about this book. 

I will

[Luke]

The US became so expensive due to the market power of these services and that all of this is in the control of private hands that you need 10-50x as much money to live the same lifestyle I could live in a tier 2/tier 3 city in China. The privatized schools, the privatized healthcare, the privatized daycare for kids, The housing sector. At the same time, investments in basic services outside of the private sector are really inefficient, and public schools are not good often. Subways are dirty and broken, deteriorating social fabric in society. 

 

And then imagine how China looks like 10 years down the road, running a mixed public and private economy and not walking into the financialized economy trap...when the sky airs up due to EVs, the automation of production that is not far away on a different continent. The scale of their city design...next decades going to be very interesting, especially in China. 

 

 

 

Edited April 26 by Luca

[Luke]

19 minutes ago, Luca said:

 At the same time, investments in basic services outside of the private sector are really inefficient, and public schools are not good often. Subways are dirty and broken, deteriorating social fabric in society. 

I don't mean that investments out of the private sector are inefficient in general. In the US/west these investments are subpar, too little, not well meant, resulting in an almost sort of ghetto system.

Edited April 26 by Luca

[Luke]

The hidden links between a giant of investigative journalism and the US government

The OCCRP, the largest organised network of investigative media in the world, hid the extent of its links with the US government, this investigation can reveal. Washington supplies half of its budget, has a right to veto its senior staff, and funds investigations focussing on Russia and Venezuela. Yann Philippin and Stefan Candea report.

 

https://www.mediapart.fr/en/journal/international/021224/hidden-links-between-giant-investigative-journalism-and-us-government

 

Interesting Article and thoughtprovoking.

[Spekulatius]

China counters with ban on exports:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/china-imposes-its-most-stringent-critical-minerals-export-restrictions-yet-amidst#:~:text=China banned shipments of gallium,be subject to greater scrutiny.

 

FWIW, these elements (Ge, Ga) are not hard to produce. I don’t think China has much of a competitive advantage here, but they are the low cost producer due to volume and likely willing to produce these close to cost.

 

The west can easily produce these element too, but it will be at higher prices. China essentially subsides the rest of the world here because of their industrial policy.