Luca Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 TIKR Premium gives us Analyst estimates for a few years, what do you guys think of these estimates and are they worth anything?  Whats your take? Do you use them for your thesis? Do Analyst know better?  Would like to know what you think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Totally useless. If they knew what they were doing they wouldn’t be writing book reports. Only thing worse is the people who trade their reports as if they mean something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Garbage! After my first couple of years investing in stocks, I decided I wasn't going to read another analyst report ever again in my life!  It is an absolutely unnecessary industry and a racket for investment banks. Although, if you get them free they make great fire starters for your wood fireplace or in a crunch...toilet paper!  Cheers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 The short term estimates are useful to understand the market earning expectations. If they are missed the stock is likely going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: The short term estimates are useful to understand the market earning expectations. If they are missed the stock is likely going down. Â I understand and all but it has always been a pet peeve of mine that "reality" is always described as "a miss" and the guys paid to guess are not the "miss." Â Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 I think that kind of stuff is contrary to a productive exercise in which one derives their own expectations. If the stock goes down on figures you are pleased with then that seems like a pretty good opportunity to invest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Its like all these people talking about analyst estimates for the index....I wouldnt even know where to start with such nonsense. Or gander why I should give a shit. I would nearly guarantee I outperform most if not all of those analysts who make the forecasts though. But I guess we should care because the computers will rule the day to day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Its like all these people talking about analyst estimates for the index....I wouldnt even know where to start with such nonsense. Or gander why I should give a shit. I would nearly guarantee I outperform most if not all of those analysts who make the forecasts though. But I guess we should care because the computers will rule the day to day. Yeah, i had a debate about Apple Forecast and its valuation and then Analyst Estimates came up.  How on earth can you estimate cashflows for the next few years, we dont even know which kind of products will be released during those years...all one could do is look at downside, past performance, other KPI and then make some decent guess based on how the market looks like now.  Just wondered really hard about a 2026 forecast and how one would come up with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 I mean sure i can bunch in some numbers based on past sales but they can not be reliable.  @gfp Good point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 I use RBC. Even though they are all self directed, my accounts are large enough that i get access to all their research reports (company/industry etc). I find i get a lot of value from the reports their analysts put together. Not the final number… but the build. The logic of how they get to that number. Often i learn some important things i was not thinking about (i am also not an accountant). i also find the Q&A sessions with analysts on earnings conference calls is also valuable. The analysts usually ask at least a few important questions. ————— Having said all that, i do find going directly to the sources is the best: company earnings releases and conference calls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 hours ago, Luca said: TIKR Premium gives us Analyst estimates for a few years, what do you guys think of these estimates and are they worth anything?  Whats your take? Do you use them for your thesis? Do Analyst know better?  Would like to know what you think I use analyst revenue and earning estimates as an upper bound while I am learning about a stock. That's it.  I've heard they are very accurate predicting about one quarter out, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 23 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said: I use analyst revenue and earning estimates as an upper bound while I am learning about a stock. That's it.  I've heard they are very accurate predicting about one quarter out, FWIW. Thanks for sharing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WayWardCloud Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 (edited) Great question! Someone backtested it:  https://www.gurufocus.com/news/874000/a-backtest-approach-do-wall-street-analysts-add-value  The blue line is the whole US market (VTI) The red line is analysts recs Killing it  Edited January 10, 2023 by WayWardCloud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 9 hours ago, WayWardCloud said: Great question! Someone backtested it:  https://www.gurufocus.com/news/874000/a-backtest-approach-do-wall-street-analysts-add-value  The blue line is the whole US market (VTI) The red line is analysts recs Killing it  Thanks for sharing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 9 hours ago, WayWardCloud said: Great question! Someone backtested it:  https://www.gurufocus.com/news/874000/a-backtest-approach-do-wall-street-analysts-add-value  The blue line is the whole US market (VTI) The red line is analysts recs Killing it  The red (estimate) line seems to have some predictive power at turning points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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