dwy000 Posted November 28, 2023 Posted November 28, 2023 4 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Yeah FCF not containing earnouts which are cash payments was probably something that soured investors on the stock. This will continue until Q1 2025 according to the CC transcript. They have $332M in remaining earn outs to pay (relative to a $1.1B market cap), which puts considerable strain on their real cash flow. All the stated numbers don't contain this cash outflow. This could be interesting down the road if they get closer to working through the earnouts in late 2024, assuming the numbers come in as expected. Right now, they are seeing the limits of their acquisition driven business model. I'm assuming most of the deleveraging will be from earnings growth as opposed to large debt paydown. Still, if they can repay $330m in cash earnouts while simultaneously delevering, that's pretty impressive for a $1.1bn market cap.
dwy000 Posted November 28, 2023 Posted November 28, 2023 5 hours ago, longterminvestor said: Maybe looks similar to stock broker valuations compared to the mutual fund valuations they sell. It would be interesting to see what the broker value % is of the entire market as a whole. How much of the growth was due to consolidation of smaller players on the broker side as opposed to multiple expansion in excess of the insurers.
dealraker Posted November 28, 2023 Posted November 28, 2023 Thanks guys... What a terrific discussion we have going here!
Spekulatius Posted November 28, 2023 Posted November 28, 2023 10 minutes ago, dwy000 said: I'm assuming most of the deleveraging will be from earnings growth as opposed to large debt paydown. Still, if they can repay $330m in cash earnouts while simultaneously delevering, that's pretty impressive for a $1.1bn market cap. I don't think they have $330M in FCF. They have gotten a loan to pay for these. BRP has roughly ~$1.3B in debt and expect to pay $120M in interest next year. Their "FCF" does not include the cash earnout payments, so I think the absolute amount of debt will increase slightly. They may show lower leverage if their EBITDA continues to increase.
dwy000 Posted November 28, 2023 Posted November 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: I don't think they have $330M in FCF. They have gotten a loan to pay for these. BRP has roughly ~$1.3B in debt and expect to pay $120M in interest next year. Their "FCF" does not include the cash earnout payments, so I think the absolute amount of debt will increase slightly. They may show lower leverage if their EBITDA continues to increase. I agree they won't have that much FCF. But if they can still delever to 4x by end of 2025, even after paying out that $330m (from FCF and/or add'l debt), it's hard to see the market cap worth less than $1.1bn with that much organic growth.
dealraker Posted December 14, 2023 Posted December 14, 2023 For what it's worth, Wells on AJG below. I've owned AJG since 1994, even with today's share price fall I wouldn't buy it today...but I'm in a taxable account here and will never sell. For an actual long term perspective, and I see so little of this online I do think it should be posted even if it seems somewhat fictional, convoluted, or whatever: I got almost $500,000 of AJG in 1994 and toay it is about $14 mil or so. I receive about $130,000 in dividends today I think. Berkshire and AJG, about the same weighting for me, are 81% or so of my total assets and I have no debt. I began my life with $47,000 inherited in stocks and never made a salary above $55,000. I never sold stocks unless I had a specific reason to do so, later that's to pariticipate in buying big tracts of land (with others) mostly for industrial growth in our area --- which to be honest is so spectacular these days I find it astonishing. Lastly while I'm chirping, I can assure you there are a bunch of people like me out there in the world. Unlike me they aren't on investment forums chumming it up with others. My wife is probably most of the reason I'm here, she wants me interacting as much in some intellectual or challenging way as much as possible. She's younger, she's seen the retired bunch and doesn't want that blisteringly fast decline stuff with me. AJG below as per Wells and with the exception of BRP, at least for a while, Wells in my view does an excellent job with the insurance brokers. Insurance Brokers Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) AJG: Live from New York City; December Investor Day Takes Our Call AJG provided a consistent view with organic and margin color unchanged for Q4 and for 2024. Estimates go down modestly for slightly higher corporate costs. The tax credit balance is now $200m due to change in accounting with its October tax return. Estimate and price target changes: Our 2023, 2024 and 2025 EPS estimates are now $8.76, $10.40 and $11.80 (from $8.80, $10.50, and $11.90) with the only major change higher corporate expenses relative to our prior model. We are looking for 8% Brokerage organic growth in 2024, leaving upside if AJG comes in at the high-end of its 7-9% target. Our price target goes up modestly to $274 (from $266) reflecting higher multiples being assigned to the group. Positive, but consistent organic color: Brokerage organic should be in the upper half of the 8-9% range this year (with 7-7.5% in Q4, but 9% when adjusting for last year's accounting adjustment). Gallagher continues to expect 2024 to be like 2023 with organic of 7-9% (which is the same as its initial 2023 outlook). Risk Management organic is expected to be 13% in Q4 (they lap new business wins which is a headwind), 15% for FY and 9-11% in 24. See Exhibit 1 for organic guidance by business. Stable pricing: Renewal premium (which includes rate and exposure) is expected to come in ~9% for Q4, similar to levels seen in the first 3 quarters and 8-10% throughout 2022. AJG feels that pricing declines in D&O and cyber are starting to bottom. In other lines, property is up 18%, umbrella is up 13% and workers' comp is up around 3%. On the reinsurance side, they are seeing strong rates for NA cat and also said they would accrue ~ $300m in Q4 for the earn out associated with Willis. Margin discussion unchanged: Brokerage margin guidance is unchanged and should expand by 40-50 basis points in the Q4 and for FY 2023 margin expansion should be 30-40bps (80-90bps excluding the impact of the Buck acquisition). Risk Management margins should be nicely above 19.5% in Q4 and around 20.0% for the full year (same as the prior guide). Strong M&A pipeline: Gallagher has $500 million of cash on hand presently and views deployable capital for M&A as $3.5 billion for 2024 (which includes potential debt issuance). The company stressed again that it does not look for acquisitions that fill gaps geographically or by LOB, but rather looks to acquire firms that fit in with its culture (AJG brokers have no geographical restrictions irregardless of office locations). Equity Analyst(s) Elyse Greenspan, CFA Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Matthew Byrnes, CFA Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Hristian Getsov Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Rating Overweight Ticker AJG Price Target/Prior: $274.00/$266.00 Upside/(Downside) to Target 11.7% Price (12/13/2023) $245.21 52 Week Range $174.45 - 254.00 Shares Outstanding 215,900,000 Market Cap (MM) $52,941 Enterprise Value (MM) $58,428 Average Daily Volume 871,247 Average Daily Value (MM) $214 Dividend (NTM) $2.04 Dividend Yield 0.8% Net Debt (MM) - last reported $5,487 ROIC - Current year est. 18% 3 Yr EPS CAGR from current year (unless otherwise noted) 14% $ 2022A 2023E 2023E 2024E 2024E EPS Curr. Prior Curr. Prior Q1 (Mar) 2.81 A 3.03 A NC 3.54 E 3.53E Q2 (Jun) 1.69 A 1.90 A NC 2.30 E 2.35E Q3 (Sep) 1.71 A 2.00 A NC 2.37 E 2.40E Q4 (Dec) 1.54 A 1.84 E 1.88E 2.18 E 2.22E FY 7.74 A 8.76 E 8.80E 10.40 E 10.50E P/E 31.7x 28.0x 23.6x ROIC - Current year est.: Represents return on equity (ROE)EPS: Represents adjusted EPS Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Refinitiv. NA = Not Available, Volatility = Historical trading volatility All estimates/forecasts are as of 12/13/2023 unless otherwise stated. 12/13/2023 20:52:10EST. Please see page 8 for rating definitions, important disclosures and required analyst certifications. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report and investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Insurance Brokers Equity Research Wells Fargo Express Takeaways Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) | Rating: Overweight | Price Target: $274.00 Analyst: Elyse Greenspan Financials FY (Dec) 2022A 2023E 2024E $ ESTIMATES EPS Q1 2.81 A 3.03 A 3.54 E Q2 1.69 A 1.90 A 2.30 E Q3 1.71 A 2.00 A 2.37 E Q4 1.54 A 1.84 E 2.18 E AN 7.74 A 8.76 E 10.40 E Rev. (MM) 8,513.9 A 10,062.9 E 11,610.3 E FCF (MM) 1,942.7 A 1,600.6 E 2,322.0 E EBIT (MM) 2,096.7 A 2,484.9 E 3,068.4 E EBITDA (MM) 2.69B A 3.22B E 3.79B E Organic Growth (%) 9.7% A 9.1% E 8.0% E WELLS FARGO vs. CONSENSUS Consensus Estimate - 8.76 E 9.95 E Difference from Consensus 0.0% 4.5% VALUATION P/E 31.7x 28.0x 23.6x EV/Revenue 6.9x 5.8x 5.0x EV/FCF 30.1x 36.5x 25.2x FCF Yield 4.7% 3.9% 5.7% EV/EBIT 27.9x 23.5x 19.0x EV/EBITDA 21.7x 18.1x 15.4x EPS: Represents adjusted EPS EBIT (MM): Excludes corporate EBITDA (MM): Excludes corporate Organic Growth (%): Organic growth reflects the brokerage segment only Consensus Estimate: Consensus EPS Estimate; Source: FactSet Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Refinitiv. NA = Not Available, NE = No Estimate Investment Thesis AJG is positioned to show strong organic revenue growth, continues to add bolt-on acquisitions, and is growing its EBITDA. Further, the company should benefit from increased scale in reinsurance following acquiring Willis Re's treaty reinsurance business. Typically, brokers generating the strongest margins have tended to have the highest valuations. As a result, we would expect AJG's valuation to expand to reflect its stronger ongoing margin profile. We have an Overweight rating on the shares. Risk vs. Reward – Upside/Downside Price Target Scenarios $170 $216 $262 $308 $354 Upside Scenario Base Case Downside Scenario * $245.21 $295.00 $274.00 $212.00 *As of 12/13/23 Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates and Refinitiv. Base Case | $274.00 • Our price target of $274 is based on the combination of a ~26.0x multiple of our projected 2024 adjusted EPS estimate plus around $4.00 of value we ascribed to the NPV of its clean coal investments. Our multiple gives AJG a premium to its peers, as the company is reporting strong organic growth, seeing industryleading margins, and has a healthy M&A pipeline. Upside Scenario | $295.00 • Our upside scenario of $295 is based off of a ~28.0x multiple our projected 2024 adjusted EPS estimate plus just under $4.00 for the company's clean coal investments. • While AJG currently trades at a premium to its peers, if the company can continue to drive strong organic revenue growth and expand margins above peer levels we feel that there is room for additional multiple expansion. Downside Scenario | $212.00 • Our downside scenario of $212 reflects a roughly ~20x multiple of our projected 2024 adjusted EPS estimate plus just under $4.00 for the company's clean coal investments. • Our downside case reflects AJG garnering a multiple that is more closely inline with the group average, which we would anticipate should the company's organic growth and margin expansion slow from recent levels. Upcoming Catalysts • Q4 2023 earnings at the end of January • More detailed 2024 guidance, including reaffirming its organic growth view • Monthly pricing surveys • Any change in GDP forecasts • Any additional M&A transactions that are announced Company Description AJG is the third largest insurance broker, with $8.5 billion of revenue from its Brokerage and Risk Management businesses in 2022. The company generates approximately 86% of revenue from its brokerage business (which includes its benefits business), with the remaining roughly 14% from its Risk Management (third party claims payment services) operations. AJG has 33,300 employees and generates 75% of its revenue in the U.S. 2 | Equity Research Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Equity Research Highlights Of Guidance Organic Growth - Brokerage Should Approach 9% in 2023; Range of 7-9% For 2024 AJG's outlook for Brokerage organic remains consistent. In brokerage, AJG continues to expect organic to be 7-7.5% in the Q4 (around 9% on an underlying basis ex. one-time items). AJG reiterated that it's organic growth excludes fiduciary investment income (MMC and WTW are the two brokers that include FII in organic). Gallagher continues to feel that market conditions in 2024 will be similar to what is being seen in 2023, and maintained its outlook for 7-9% organic growth in 2024. Q4 Brokerage organic growth by line: Exhibit 1 below shows AJG's organic growth assumptions by line of business, which the company did not provide any material updates to during the investor day. While the company did not provide updates by line, the company expects that investments it is making in technology will enable the company to offer a better product and drive growth across all LOBs. 2024 Brokerage outlook: Regarding 2024 organic growth, AJG continues to expect Brokerage organic to fall within the 7-9% range. The company also expects that organic contributors will remain roughly evenly split between rate, exposure, and net new business. Gallagher did note that it is starting to see lines such as D&O and cyber bottom, which should offset any deceleration in property pricing (which could occur due to rate fatigue after a few years of healthy price increases). Risk Management organic to remain strong: The risk management organic outlook remains healthy, with AJG expecting Q4 organic to come in around 13%, and above 15% for FY 2023. Exhibit 1 - Organic Growth by Quarter and Year Segment 2020 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4E 2023E 2024E U.S. Retail 5% 8% 10% 13% 11% 11% 9% 8% 7.0% 13% about 8% International Retail - - 6% 10% U.K 7%+ 9%+ 9%+ 12% 14% 8% 15% 17% more than 7% 11% 7% Australia & New Zealand 3% 6%+ 8%+ Nearly 10% 11%+ 9% 12% 10% 10%+ 13% Canada 13% Nearly 10% 13%+ 12%+ 14%+ 13% 9% 6% 6% 10% U.K. Specialty 17% 19% 18% Ghallagher Re 12% 11% 20% Wholesale 6% 12% 16% 15% 10% 8% 9% Above 9% nearly 8% 10% 7% Benefits 2% 4% 5% 7% 7%+ ~9% ~3% 3% nearly 7% about 2% 6% Total Brokerage 3% 6% 7% 9% 11% 8% 9.6% 10.8% 7.8% 11.0% ~9.7% 9.1% 9.7% 9.3% 7-7.5% Pushing 9% 7-9% Adjusted 13.0% Pushing 9% Risk Management -3% 1% 20% 16.5% 13% 12% 15.2% 10% 12.2% 15.6% 13.6% 14.3% 18.1% 17.9% 13.0% Above 15% 9-11% *Benefits business benefited from a one-off large life insurance funding product sale in Q3 2020. Excluding this, Q3 2021 organic would have been ~10% Source: Comapny reports and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Margin View Unchanged Consistent margin view as well: Brokerage margin guidance is unchanged and should expand by 30-40 basis points for FY 2023 including Buck and 80-90 basis points excluding Buck with 40-50 basis points of expansion in Q4. Risk Management margins should be nicely above 19% in the Q4 and around 19.0% for the full year (although the company sees upside should the end of the year close strong). Other Guided Items - Slightly Larger FX Hit and 2024 Corporate Items FX changes: Not much was adjusted in the CFO commentary. The FX impact in the Q4 is now expected to be ($0.01) versus no impact previously. For FY 2023 the FX impact is now expected to be ($0.08), a bit worse than the prior ($0.07). Modestly higher corporate loss: The corporate loss is now expected to be $302-308m, higher than the $293-299m previously. The two moving items were slightly greater acquisition costs and FX remeasurement. AJG rolled out 2024 expectations of a loss of between $331-356m, which is anticipated to be evenly split amongst the four quarters (AJG will provide updated guidance in 2024). Tax cash update: The balance of its tax credits is now higher than it was as of the end of the Q3 (current $856.7m, as compared to $669.4m with Q3 earnings) as they changed the method of accounting when they filed their tax returns in October which added about $200 million of tax credits that they can use in the future. Equity Research | 3 Insurance Brokers Equity Research Summary of Our Estimate Changes Lowering our EPS estimates. Our 2023, 2024 and 2025 estimates go to $8.76, $10.40, and $11.80 from $8.80, $10.50 and $11.90 respectively. The only major change to our estimates is higher corporate expenses relative to our prior model and company guidance. Our price target goes up modestly to $274 from $266 which primarily reflects higher multiples that are being assigned to the group. Exhibit 2 - Sumary of Estimate Changes ($ in millions, except per share data) 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023 Outlook Adjusted EPS: Brokerage $9.43 $11.12 $12.50 $9.43 $11.11 $12.49 $0.00 $0.01 $0.01 Risk Management $0.73 $0.80 $0.88 $0.73 $0.80 $0.88 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Corporate ($1.39) ($1.52) ($1.58) ($1.35) ($1.41) ($1.47) ($0.04) ($0.12) ($0.11) Adjusted EPS $8.76 $10.40 $11.80 $8.80 $10.50 $11.90 -$0.04 -$0.11 -$0.10 Share Count 219.2 222.2 224.2 219.2 222.2 224.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Brokerage Results: Revenue $8,650 $10,071 $11,179 $8,652 $10,092 $11,200 ($2) -$20 -$22 Growth in revenue 18.4% 16.4% 11.0% 18.5% 16.6% 11.0% (0.0%) (0.2%) 0.0% Growth in organic revenue 9.1% 8.0% 6.4% 9.1% 8.0% 6.4% (0.0%) (0.0%) 0.0% High end of 8-9% organic revenue growth for FY EBITDAC $2,970 $3,513 $3,957 $2,971 $3,521 $3,960 ($1) -$7 -$2 EBITDAC margin 34.4% 34.9% 35.4% 34.4% 34.9% 35.4% 0.0% (0.0%) 0.0% 30-40 basis points of FY margin expansion with Buck (80-90 bps ex Buck) EBITDAC margin improvement 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% (0.0%) 0.0% Tax Rate 25.2% 25.1% 25.1% 25.2% 25.5% 25.5% 0.0% (0.4%) (0.4%) Risk Management Results: Revenue $1,419 $1,539 $1,654 $1,419 $1,539 $1,654 $0 $0 $0 Growth in revenue 16.0% 8.4% 7.5% 16.0% 8.4% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Growth in organic revenue 15.4% 10.0% 8.5% 15.4% 10.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Above 15% organic growth for the FY EBITDAC $252 $277 $303 $252 $277 $303 $0 $0 $0 EBITDAC margin 19.7% 19.8% 20.0% 19.7% 19.8% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Margin above 20% EBITDAC margin improvement 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 2.1% 0.1% 0.2% (1.5%) 0.0% 0.0% Tax Rate 26.3% 25.9% 25.9% 26.3% 25.9% 25.9% (0.0%) 0.0% 0.0% Current Prior Change Source: Company reports and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates 4 | Equity Research Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Equity Research Valuation Current valuation remains attractive. On a price-to-earnings basis, AJG shares are trading at 25.4x our 2023E EPS estimate and 22.0x our 2024 EPS estimate. On an Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA basis, shares are trading at 19.4x our 2023E estimate and 16.3x our 2024E estimate. This is above the 22.3x multiple the shares have traded at on average over the past 5 years on a P/E basis (prior to March 2022, the shares were previously valued on estimates that included intangible amortization resulting in a lower EPS and higher multiple), but above the14.0x they have traded at on an Enterprise Valueto-EBITDA basis (based on one-year forward estimates). To us, the valuation of the shares remains attractive as Gallagher is generating strong organic growth, good margin improvement, and continues to point to a healthy M&A pipeline. Exhibit 3 - AJG Historical Price to Earnings Multiple 7.5x 10.0x 12.5x 15.0x 17.5x 20.0x 22.5x 25.0x 27.5x 30.0x Dec '13 Dec '14 Dec '15 Dec '16 Dec '17 Dec '18 Dec '19 Dec '20 Dec '21 Dec '22 Dec '23 Price / NTM Earnings 10-Year Average 10-year Standard Deviation 5-Year Trend 2024 Forward - 21.9x • Average - 22.3x • Peak - 28.8x • Low - 14.7x 10-Year Trend • Average - 19.4x • Peak - 28.8x • Low - 12.2x Source: FactSet and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates Exhibit 4 - AJG Historical EV/EBITDA 5.0x 7.5x 10.0x 12.5x 15.0x 17.5x 20.0x Dec '13 Dec '14 Dec '15 Dec '16 Dec '17 Dec '18 Dec '19 Dec '20 Dec '21 Dec '22 EV / EBITDA 10-Year Average 10-Year Standard Deviation 2024 Forward - 16.3x 5-Year Trend • Average - 14.0x • Peak - 17.5x • Low - 9.7x 10-Year Trend • Average - 11.8x • Peak - 17.5x • Low - 6.8x Source: Company reports, FactSet and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates
gfp Posted December 14, 2023 Posted December 14, 2023 @dealraker You're alive! I was starting to worry about you after a couple of weeks with no Charlie wisdom anywhere...
dealraker Posted December 14, 2023 Posted December 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, gfp said: @dealraker You're alive! I was starting to worry about you after a couple of weeks with no Charlie wisdom anywhere... Greg wrote me too... I said, "I've read every word on the forum but like our now gone other Charlie I had nothing to add." Have a good day gfp!
Dinar Posted December 14, 2023 Posted December 14, 2023 @dealraker, Charlie does WFC have an EPS estimate 5 & 10 years out?
dealraker Posted December 14, 2023 Posted December 14, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Dinar said: @dealraker, Charlie does WFC have an EPS estimate 5 & 10 years out? Unfortunately that's not in their time framewook of analyzing things much like others it is just more short term. It just doesn't exist anywhere at least as far as I know. I basically hang out all the time with a (I'm 69.5 years old) guy who is turning 64 and his father was in the agency business here in my town and he was my partner years ago (when his father wanted him to work else where for a while). The man is crazy good and successful in three towns now. While he's far-far-far from a showoff type he has homes here on my lake and in the local town of substantial value, pays cash....and makes hundreds of thousand of community project donations. So you'd think between the two of us, particularly him at least, that he'd be a whiz at describing and analyzing this sort of business while I'll tell you flat out that he hasn't a clue and doesn't even think about it. He is dynamic man, superb cyclist road and mtn....and he's as straight shooting as they come. I knew him coming out of high school and all I remember is "this guy means business." I have had mutliple business dealings with him, he's blunt. loyal, and beyond honest. He says the big boys call him weekly, sometimes the do a Trojan Horse type of thing where they say they want to discuss this or that and of course the only goal is to buy him out. He has sons in the business, neither very capable (his words) but still he says he plans to run the business until he's out of here. The "until I'm out of here" thing to me implies something on the order of "things must be damn good....and looking damn good for the future." I know nothing about the long term and I'd almost assure you he'd not even know how to talk about it. Day-to-day though.....he's incredibly good at this. Edited December 14, 2023 by dealraker
longterminvestor Posted December 20, 2023 Posted December 20, 2023 https://aon.mediaroom.com/2023-12-20-Aon-to-acquire-NFP,-a-leading-middle-market-provider-of-risk,-benefits,-wealth-and-retirement-plan-advisory-solutions "Purchase price estimated to be $13.4B at the time of close, representing a ~15x multiple on seller-adjusted estimated EBITDA at closing". Incredible.
longterminvestor Posted December 20, 2023 Posted December 20, 2023 There is also some chatter that big daddy Marsh is gonna go 100% internal for wholesale.
gfp Posted January 23 Posted January 23 Brown and Brown results out, market likes it. https://investor.bbinsurance.com/news-releases/news-release-details/brown-brown-inc-announces-fourth-quarter-2023-results-including
dealraker Posted January 27 Posted January 27 For entertainment only: Brown and Brown has joined my 100 bagger list. Live long...and hold good businesses. Might not get Parsad's 19 (gotta be 20 plus now after his phenomenal year this year) percent... ...but it ain't too bad either!
Spekulatius Posted January 27 Posted January 27 1 hour ago, dealraker said: For entertainment only: Brown and Brown has joined my 100 bagger list. Live long...and hold good businesses. Might not get Parsad's 19 (gotta be 20 plus now after his phenomenal year this year) percent... ...but it ain't too bad either! 100 bagger, that’s something. I guess AJG is in there as well? As Spock said - live long and prosper.
dealraker Posted January 27 Posted January 27 1 hour ago, Spekulatius said: 100 bagger, that’s something. I guess AJG is in there as well? As Spock said - live long and prosper. Spek, I can't figure AJG because of its dividend being historically (not today) so much higher. My cousin though will do it for me if I ask. It certainly will be close.
Seoshin Posted January 27 Posted January 27 2 hours ago, dealraker said: For entertainment only: Brown and Brown has joined my 100 bagger list. Live long...and hold good businesses. Might not get Parsad's 19 (gotta be 20 plus now after his phenomenal year this year) percent... ...but it ain't too bad either! Congratulations! I long to have your temperament and returns. I hope I'm not yet late to the party for BRO!
Dinar Posted January 27 Posted January 27 2 hours ago, dealraker said: Spek, I can't figure AJG because of its dividend being historically (not today) so much higher. My cousin though will do it for me if I ask. It certainly will be close. Charlie, if you provide the purchase date and price, I will run the return for you on bloomberg
longterminvestor Posted February 1 Posted February 1 On 1/27/2024 at 7:10 AM, dealraker said: For entertainment only: Brown and Brown has joined my 100 bagger list. Live long...and hold good businesses. Might not get Parsad's 19 (gotta be 20 plus now after his phenomenal year this year) percent... ...but it ain't too bad either! BRO was a tough 10yr hold from high in 2006 all the way through to 2013 even further through 2016ish with no return (yeah there is a small divey in there but no price action on the biz). 2016 to today has been a rocket ride. Kudos to your conviction and that's what it takes to hit the 100X. That does deserve its due. Well done sir. Well done in deed.
dealraker Posted February 2 Posted February 2 14 hours ago, longterminvestor said: BRO was a tough 10yr hold from high in 2006 all the way through to 2013 even further through 2016ish with no return (yeah there is a small divey in there but no price action on the biz). 2016 to today has been a rocket ride. Kudos to your conviction and that's what it takes to hit the 100X. That does deserve its due. Well done sir. Well done in deed. Elliott Spitzer, aka madame Heidi Fleiss connoisseur, was briskly chasing broker contingency commissions in the 2006 onwards period. It was, shall we say, a bucking/slamming ride!
Spekulatius Posted February 2 Posted February 2 33 minutes ago, dealraker said: Elliott Spitzer, aka madame Heidi Fleiss connoisseur, was briskly chasing broker contingency commissions in the 2006 onwards period. It was, shall we say, a bucking/slamming ride! The GFC may have a bit to do with BRO stagnation in that timeframe. When you look at earnings and revenues for BRO from 2006-2011, they were essentially flat for BRO and only started to rise again in 2012. Rising share prices are simply fueled by rising revenues and earnings and both simply were not there from 2006-2011. Any 100 bagger will likely go through periods of underperformance that last for years.
dealraker Posted February 2 Posted February 2 18 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: The GFC may have a bit to do with BRO stagnation in that timeframe. When you look at earnings and revenues for BRO from 2006-2011, they were essentially flat for BRO and only started to rise again in 2012. Rising share prices are simply fueled by rising revenues and earnings and both simply were not there from 2006-2011. Any 100 bagger will likely go through periods of underperformance that last for years. Yes-yes-yes this is so correct, Munger's mention that linear can't be expected...
dealraker Posted February 6 Posted February 6 Interesting...my always underperforming Willis stock is going up. Gotta find out why!
gfp Posted February 6 Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, dealraker said: Interesting...my always underperforming Willis stock is going up. Gotta find out why! That would be earnings Charlie! https://www.reuters.com/business/willis-towers-watson-beats-profit-estimates-risk-brokerage-strength-2024-02-06/
gfp Posted February 20 Posted February 20 Hmmm. Why is it a good idea to sell a crown jewel just because you can? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-19/truist-nears-sale-of-stake-in-insurance-arm-to-stone-point-cd-r " Truist Agrees to Sell Rest of Insurance Arm to Stone Point, CD&R Deal ‘will further strengthen our balance sheet,’ CEO says Truist Insurance Holdings valued at about $15 billion in deal"
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