Are Large Players Keeping Crypto Prices Up?

[Parsad]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wild-theory-price-bitcoin-being-110000608.html

 

Wild theory or reality?!  Cheers!

[rkbabang]

3 hours ago, Parsad said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wild-theory-price-bitcoin-being-110000608.html

 

Wild theory or reality?!  Cheers!

 

"the manipulator or manipulators agree that every time the price drops to a target level, they’ll jump in to push it well above that benchmark."

 

So this guy's theory is that every time the price drops some people with money rush in to buy it pushing the price up.  I agree that is most probably happening.   Buying when something is low and stopping your buys once the price rises, some people call that "manipulation" others just call it investing.  There are lots of times I start buying something when the price drops and then stop buying it when the price rises again, then if it rises enough I sell.  I guess I'm part of the manipulation cabal. 

 

[SharperDingaan]

15 hours ago, rkbabang said:

 

"the manipulator or manipulators agree that every time the price drops to a target level, they’ll jump in to push it well above that benchmark."

 

So this guy's theory is that every time the price drops some people with money rush in to buy it pushing the price up.  I agree that is most probably happening.   Buying when something is low and stopping your buys once the price rises, some people call that "manipulation" others just call it investing.  There are lots of times I start buying something when the price drops and then stop buying it when the price rises again, then if it rises enough I sell.  I guess I'm part of the manipulation cabal. 

 

 

+1

 

SD

[Parsad]

On 2/3/2023 at 4:44 PM, rkbabang said:

 

"the manipulator or manipulators agree that every time the price drops to a target level, they’ll jump in to push it well above that benchmark."

 

So this guy's theory is that every time the price drops some people with money rush in to buy it pushing the price up.  I agree that is most probably happening.   Buying when something is low and stopping your buys once the price rises, some people call that "manipulation" others just call it investing.  There are lots of times I start buying something when the price drops and then stop buying it when the price rises again, then if it rises enough I sell.  I guess I'm part of the manipulation cabal. 

 

 

RK, I know you're rich, but you aren't moving markets!    Cheers!

[rkbabang]

10 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

RK, I know you're rich, but you aren't moving markets!    Cheers!

Agreed, I’m not rich compared to anyone moving markets, but the behavior is the same. Buy low, sell high.  If that behavior is immoral, then I am guilty.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

On 2/3/2023 at 6:44 PM, rkbabang said:

 

"the manipulator or manipulators agree that every time the price drops to a target level, they’ll jump in to push it well above that benchmark."

 

So this guy's theory is that every time the price drops some people with money rush in to buy it pushing the price up.  I agree that is most probably happening.   Buying when something is low and stopping your buys once the price rises, some people call that "manipulation" others just call it investing.  

 

There is some wide consensus that price manipulation occurred in 2013. 

 

I think there is suspicion that something similar occurred in 2017 with Tether allegedly printing unbacked Tether to buy BTC and drive up it's price. But no one has ever provided evidence. Separately, Tether survived the 2018 drawdown and the 2021/2022 drawdown all while managing billions and billions of outflows. It doesn't seem they're the market manipulating ponzi everyone said. 

 

This guy has a high hill to climb to demonstrate price manipulation and provide actual evidence of it and not that it's just some whale trying to ease into a position without driving the price through the roof. 

[ValueArb]

I love conspiracy theories but I love applicable and convincing evidence even more. I'm still awaiting the evidence. 

[rkbabang]

4 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

There is some wide consensus that price manipulation occurred in 2013. 

 

I think there is suspicion that something similar occurred in 2017 with Tether allegedly printing unbacked Tether to buy BTC and drive up it's price. But no one has ever provided evidence. Separately, Tether survived the 2018 drawdown and the 2021/2022 drawdown all while managing billions and billions of outflows. It doesn't seem they're the market manipulating ponzi everyone said. 

 

This guy has a high hill to climb to demonstrate price manipulation and provide actual evidence of it and not that it's just some whale trying to ease into a position without driving the price through the roof. 

Yes I’ve heard the Tether theories for the 2017 run up, but that isn’t even what he is alleging this time, his allegation is that when Bitcoin gets too low people are buying it and the price goes back up. Like, yeah, no shit, I do that too.

[SharperDingaan]

Crypto is no different than any other market. Market manipulation is part of the environment; it shouldn't exist but on any given day most would argue that it is present. It really comes down to degree, and whether the counter party is at least your equal in experience &/or expertise (a Goldman Sachs vs Morgan Stanley).

 

The big difference is that the crypto market is new, and largely the sophisticated vs the not so much. Buying BTC cheap, and not buying when it's expensive is not manipulation. Neither is buying BTC cheap and selling a BTC covered call at a much higher strike, at the same time  Before BTC we had the penny stock exchange, and with the same issues.

 

Ya pays ya money, and ya takes ya chances! If this isn't you, go play on a better exchange.

 

SD

 

[rkbabang]

12 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

Crypto is no different than any other market. Market manipulation is part of the environment; it shouldn't exist but on any given day most would argue that it is present. It really comes down to degree, and whether the counter party is at least your equal in experience &/or expertise (a Goldman Sachs vs Morgan Stanley).

 

The big difference is that the crypto market is new, and largely the sophisticated vs the not so much. Buying BTC cheap, and not buying when it's expensive is not manipulation. Neither is buying BTC cheap and selling a BTC covered call at a much higher strike, at the same time  Before BTC we had the penny stock exchange, and with the same issues.

 

Ya pays ya money, and ya takes ya chances! If this isn't you, go play on a better exchange.

 

SD

 

+1

 

Bitcoin is getting bigger and will be a much harder asset to manipulate in the future and probably isn't that easy to manipulate now.  That wasn't the case in 2013.   There are a lot of microcap stocks that are far easier to manipulate than Bitcoin.

 

[Parsad]

Down goes Silvergate!  Down goes Silvergate!  Just like when Ali knocked out Frazier.  Cheers!
 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/02/business/silvergate-capital-crypto-ftx/index.html

[rkbabang]

54 minutes ago, Parsad said:

Down goes Silvergate!  Down goes Silvergate!  Just like when Ali knocked out Frazier.  Cheers!
 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/02/business/silvergate-capital-crypto-ftx/index.html

 

Ouch!   I own some 2025 $12.5 calls which are down substantially today.

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

On 3/2/2023 at 10:21 AM, rkbabang said:

 

Ouch!   I own some 2025 $12.5 calls which are down substantially today.

 

 

I own the Jan 2024s - but have been selling calls against the position since it ran up from $11 to $20+. 

 

Think I'm down like ~7-10% on the total position at this point after crystalizing gains in calls sold. 

 

I purchased some of the preferred shares today instead of adding to equity/calls. @ $4.50 on a $25 par, seems like a risk worth taking while moving up slightly in the capital stack if it does in fact enter chapter 7. 

Edited March 3, 2023 by TwoCitiesCapital

[Red Lion]

On 3/3/2023 at 12:43 PM, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

I own the Jan 2024s - but have been selling calls against the position since it ran up from $11 to $20+. 

 

Think I'm down like ~7-10% on the total position at this point after crystalizing gains in calls sold. 

 

I purchased some of the preferred shares today instead of adding to equity/calls. @ $4.50 on a $25 par, seems like a risk worth taking while moving up slightly in the capital stack if it does in fact enter chapter 7. 

Interesting idea with the preferred here. 

[Parsad]

SEC Files Emergency Action Against BKCoin for Running $100M ‘Ponzi-Like’ Scheme

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sec-files-emergency-action-against-174334826.html

 

I suspect there is a much bigger fish than FTX out there that at some point is going to get fried!  Governments missed a huge group here by not regulating crypto! 

 

Cheers!

[whatstheofficerproblem]

The fish bigger than FTX is Binance, apparently CZ is worth >$70B.... then again, I get why it is still afloat, a sinking ship is better than open water.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 hours ago, RedLion said:

Interesting idea with the preferred here. 

 

If the equity is worth anything, the preferred are worth $25. Exposure is still pretty minimal, but just trying to be somewhat responsible about adding given that it does seem like they're losing institutional customers at a very fast clip. 

[rkbabang]

4 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

If the equity is worth anything, the preferred are worth $25. Exposure is still pretty minimal, but just trying to be somewhat responsible about adding given that it does seem like they're losing institutional customers at a very fast clip. 

 

 

I'm just going to hold my 2025's and not add anything.  By then this will have played out one way or the other.  It is a small enough position that I'm prepared to just consider it a total loss if that's how it turns out.

 

[whatstheofficerproblem]

 

Definitely worth a watch.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

23 hours ago, rkbabang said:

 

 

I'm just going to hold my 2025's and not add anything.  By then this will have played out one way or the other.  It is a small enough position that I'm prepared to just consider it a total loss if that's how it turns out.

 

 

Saw something today that suggests something like 80% of the free-float is currently held short. 

 

Anybody familiar with cases of distressed equity investing know if that's high for 'going concerns' or not? 

 

Just seems like another potential meme stock/stock squeeze experiment waiting to happen regardless of liquidation or continuing on as a going concern. 

[fareastwarriors]

Silvergate Capital announced on Wednesday that it will wind down operations and liquidate Silvergate Bank.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/08/silvergate-shutting-down-operations-and-liquidating-bank.html

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Saw something today that suggests something like 80% of the free-float is currently held short. 

 

Anybody familiar with cases of distressed equity investing know if that's high for 'going concerns' or not? 

 

Just seems like another potential meme stock/stock squeeze experiment waiting to happen regardless of liquidation or continuing on as a going concern. 

 

Lol. Never mind. We'll just see how the liquidation plays out and if there's anything left for equity. 

[rkbabang]

Oh well, you win some and lose some.

 

[Parsad]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cryptos-players-hoarding-bitcoin-tether-aed13251?siteid=yhoof2

 

Cheers!