Parsad Posted October 4, 2022 Author Posted October 4, 2022 50 minutes ago, Viking said: Here is a quote of Druckenmiller’s from the CNBC Seeking Alpha conference just held: STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER: …. But right now, I like everything I’m hearing out of the Fed, and I hope they finish the job. They made a big mistake. They seem to have owned it, but it’s easy to own it when employment is strong. Let’s see what happens if we get a hard landing. I just hope they stick to their guns because this stuff was terrible in the ’70s. You have to slay the dragon. And the chair is right. You’re probably going to have some pain. ————— The Fed is in the Disney phase of tightening - employment is strong. Can the Fed continue to do what is necessary to slay inflation when the economy turns down hard and employment weakens a great deal? We should have our answer by the end of 2023. Given this Feds track record i am not optimistic - but i remain open minded (to steal one of Druckenmiller’s favourite lines. https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20221001265/we-are-in-deep-trouble-billionaire-investor-druckenmiller-believes-feds-monetary-tightening-will-push-the-economy-into-recession-in-2023 Druckenmiller believes in a likely hard landing, but he's not ruling out something different. Too many times investors speculate on what may or may not happen, instead of just buying when cheap and selling when dear. Don't pay attention to any of the pundits! Cheers!
Sinbius Posted October 4, 2022 Posted October 4, 2022 Do you consider the market on average cheap considering what's happing in the real economy and with interest rates at Current S&P 500 PE Ratio: 18.59 and Current Shiller PE Ratio: 27.53 ?
maxthetrade Posted October 4, 2022 Posted October 4, 2022 6 hours ago, Sinbius said: Do you consider the market on average cheap This market reminds me somewhat of the bifurcated market in 1999/2000. Lots of expensive momo stocks and very reasonably priced value stocks.
Spekulatius Posted October 4, 2022 Posted October 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, maxthetrade said: This market reminds me somewhat of the bifurcated market in 1999/2000. Lots of expensive momo stocks and very reasonably priced value stocks. Definitely true. There are a lot of very cheap stocks out there.
Parsad Posted October 4, 2022 Author Posted October 4, 2022 25 minutes ago, maxthetrade said: This market reminds me somewhat of the bifurcated market in 1999/2000. Lots of expensive momo stocks and very reasonably priced value stocks. Yes! +1! Value stocks did very well during mid-2000-2002, while the market dropped overall. Very similar to what we are seeing today, except we also have a strong inflationary environment which is putting up headwinds to the overall market and bonds. But that won't be the case forever! Cheers!
Parsad Posted October 4, 2022 Author Posted October 4, 2022 6 hours ago, Sinbius said: Do you consider the market on average cheap considering what's happing in the real economy and with interest rates at Current S&P 500 PE Ratio: 18.59 and Current Shiller PE Ratio: 27.53 ? I have 9 stocks in my portfolio and none are anywhere near 18 times earnings other than GOOGL. And the overall portfolio's P/E would be about 11-12 including GOOGL. Cheers!
Sinbius Posted October 4, 2022 Posted October 4, 2022 You all dodged the question...I understand there are cheap stocks...the question was "Do you consider the market on average cheap" ...I made that question because it seems there are a lot of bulls here...
longlake95 Posted October 4, 2022 Posted October 4, 2022 8 minutes ago, Sinbius said: You all dodged the question...I understand there are cheap stocks...the question was "Do you consider the market on average cheap" ...I made that question because it seems there are a lot of bulls here... No
Gregmal Posted October 4, 2022 Posted October 4, 2022 14 minutes ago, Sinbius said: You all dodged the question...I understand there are cheap stocks...the question was "Do you consider the market on average cheap" ...I made that question because it seems there are a lot of bulls here... This question is only relevant if you are somebody buying the index. Or maybe the FANGs. How does this have anything to do with owning LPX at 3-5x forward earnings and a buyback doing like 20% of shares annually?
mattee2264 Posted October 4, 2022 Posted October 4, 2022 (edited) I think the overall market mentality is still very speculative. You can already see the BOE pivot to QE and the smaller than expected RBA rate rise and the UN calling out the Fed are fuelling hopes that the impetus for tightening is starting to diminish and central banks will start worrying about financial stability and take their foot off the gas. We are on course for the best 2 day rally on the S&P 500 in 2 years. We already had a summer bear market rally of 17% and my guess is there will be another one in the winter when the pace of tightening starts to ease off. But markets are still giving the Fed an omniscience that is undeserved. Whether we have a hard landing or a soft landing has little to do with the Fed and if we do have a hard landing and earnings crater then the Fed may be able to pause but it will have little room to pivot with inflation still well above target and it will not want to risk losing what credibility it has regained in this hiking cycle until it is clear that demand destruction is bringing inflation down significantly. The other thing worth noticing is that OPEC cooperation appears alive and well with talk of a 2M barrel a day cut which will push up inflationary pressures and hurt margins. That is not at all bullish! Edited October 4, 2022 by mattee2264
Gregmal Posted October 4, 2022 Posted October 4, 2022 The analysts control the stock market bc of estimates. The Fed controls the stock market because the talk. The index control the stock market because they just do. This is the widespread brainwashing that occurs through constant barrage of media and financial product narrative pushing. Isnt it a little more productive just to be a normal person and think? Like hey, theres literally thousands, globally tens of thousands of individual companies out there. I can go look at them, do some work, evaluate them, and then decide whether its worth owning them? Theres like zero relevance here if you're using a mid-long term approach to what dimwit analysts think, or whether rates are 4% or 5%, or what the PE(just a guess from people who arent good enough at what they do to actually be investing in the first place) is on a basket of other shit no one is forcing you to own? And if the concern is "well it could go down", well then you arent really investing are you? Every decision in life is pretty much an acknowledgment of "I am giving you this and getting that, is this acceptable". If yes, whats the problem? If no, keep looking.
Guest Posted October 4, 2022 Posted October 4, 2022 A lot of bulls? That must have happened over the past 2 days because there weren't many of us before that.
Spekulatius Posted October 4, 2022 Posted October 4, 2022 1 minute ago, stahleyp said: A lot of bulls? That must have happened over the past 2 days because there weren't many of us before that. Q3 is done. The market is brutally oversold. Inflation fear driving the selloff and looks overdone. Might be a bear market rally, who knows.
Guest Posted October 4, 2022 Posted October 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Spekulatius said: Q3 is done. The market is brutally oversold. Inflation fear driving the selloff and looks overdone. Might be a bear market rally, who knows. I don't know if it's a bear market rally or not either man. All I know is that as Buffett said "you pay a very high price for a rosy consensus" and that the consensus ain't all that rosy right now.
changegonnacome Posted October 4, 2022 Posted October 4, 2022 (edited) 5 hours ago, Sinbius said: You all dodged the question...I understand there are cheap stocks...the question was "Do you consider the market on average cheap" ...I made that question because it seems there are a lot of bulls here... The US markets aren't cheap, not even close to cheap. There is way more to go here. The bulls seem to think that we are close to a pivot somehow........give me a break......call me when unemployment is at 5% and we can consider a conversation about a timeline to a pivot from the Fed......inflation, the sticky monetary kind (not supply chain, oil, things on ships) doesnt turn until heat is taken out of the domestic economy which can only occur with a period of time where we sit below total aggregate DOMESTIC productive capacity......we aren't there yet on inflation......dont confuse pain with progress Edited October 4, 2022 by changegonnacome
Parsad Posted October 4, 2022 Author Posted October 4, 2022 5 hours ago, Sinbius said: You all dodged the question...I understand there are cheap stocks...the question was "Do you consider the market on average cheap" ...I made that question because it seems there are a lot of bulls here... Not cheap, but fairly priced. Cheers!
Parsad Posted October 4, 2022 Author Posted October 4, 2022 1 hour ago, stahleyp said: I don't know if it's a bear market rally or not either man. All I know is that as Buffett said "you pay a very high price for a rosy consensus" and that the consensus ain't all that rosy right now. I didn't see alot of pundits saying "sell, sell, sell" back in November. Today, the pundits are screaming "sell, sell, sell" after a 25% drop in the overall market, and a solid 60-90% drop in speculative areas. And I'm sure once markets have turned up a solid 20%-30% plus at some point, they will be screaming "buy, buy, buy!" Cheers! 1
Guest Posted October 4, 2022 Posted October 4, 2022 (edited) 13 hours ago, Sinbius said: Do you consider the market on average cheap considering what's happing in the real economy and with interest rates at Current S&P 500 PE Ratio: 18.59 and Current Shiller PE Ratio: 27.53 ? What do those things have to do with what the stock market might do? Edited October 4, 2022 by stahleyp
Gregmal Posted October 4, 2022 Posted October 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, Parsad said: I didn't see alot of pundits saying "sell, sell, sell" back in November. Today, the pundits are screaming "sell, sell, sell" after a 25% drop in the overall market, and a solid 60-90% drop in speculative areas. And I'm sure once markets have turned up a solid 20%-30% plus at some point, they will be screaming "buy, buy, buy!" Cheers! Exactly. There’s never been a single digit market drop, let alone a real correction where there weren’t people pointing to more downside ahead. Then when it doesn’t materialize they just quietly go away or blame some sort of real or imagined bailout or something.
Xerxes Posted October 4, 2022 Posted October 4, 2022 Can I ask why interest rate hikes seem to have a outsize impact as oppose to QT when it comes to commentator on TV. everyone talks about the next Fed meeting but what about the $95B rolling off the b/s every month. why is that the so-call pivot is firmly fixed on the idea of Fed slowing rate hikes and eventually pausing. But no one talks about the un-printing
Guest Posted October 4, 2022 Posted October 4, 2022 Maybe I need to sell out? https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/84ce1c62-1601-3e4e-99e8-e9bd813e1e7d/stock-markets-will-drop.html
Gregmal Posted October 4, 2022 Posted October 4, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, stahleyp said: Maybe I need to sell out? https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/84ce1c62-1601-3e4e-99e8-e9bd813e1e7d/stock-markets-will-drop.html Never have a read something with so many self congratulatory “as I have correctly predicted”s leading every paragraph or sentence…almost enough to forget that this is another guys who’s basically been wrong forever and just wants his day finally because indeed credit is due for saying the same thing for so long. Oh yea, and he s got a new book out. These people really are such pieces of shit. Edited October 4, 2022 by Gregmal
Parsad Posted October 4, 2022 Author Posted October 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Xerxes said: Can I ask why interest rate hikes seem to have a outsize impact as oppose to QT when it comes to commentator on TV. everyone talks about the next Fed meeting but what about the $95B rolling off the b/s every month. why is that the so-call pivot is firmly fixed on the idea of Fed slowing rate hikes and eventually pausing. But no one talks about the un-printing Interest rates hikes tend to have a more obvious and immediate impact, thus why they get more of the headlines. Your mortgage rates rise, your HELOC rates rise, your credit card rates rise, the rate for the new car you are buying goes up, etc. Cheers!
Guest Posted October 5, 2022 Posted October 5, 2022 Wrong? Never! https://www.reuters.com/article/us-roubini-outlook/roubini-sticks-to-2013-perfect-storm-prediction-idUSBRE86G1C820120717
Gregmal Posted October 5, 2022 Posted October 5, 2022 (edited) Yea I don’t know how these people exist other than being leeches in the WS cesspool. Constantly preaching fear and trying to profit off failures or miseries of others. Rooting for unemployment, business failures, and hardships for normal people. It’s one of the reasons I’ve never had any interest in a foreclosure or a short sale of a property because at some point you don’t need to be a scumbag who benefits off the misfortune on others. What one has to be as a person to be consumed with this sort of scenario all the time, like the Roubinis or Granthams or the world…it’s disgusting. Rooting for rate hikes you know will create bad outcomes, job losses, divorces, deaths, etc….yuck. Fuck those people. Inflation is just the weasly cover. We survived like 20% real inflation last year…no, the world doesn’t need to be nuked bc it might be 5% next year. Definitely seeing the worst in folks come out. Although this is standard course behavior in the finance world. You know cuz there’s no feat greater than having some puts and then parading around for a decade as “the guy who called it”…a title Roubini still holds dear to his heart. Edited October 5, 2022 by Gregmal 1
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