Russia-Ukrainian War

[Spekulatius]

Russia is like Germany in 1917.  Germany pulled back to the Siegfried line but they almost lost all the offensive capability. I dont think they can free up manpower do another offensive yet (the analogy to WW1 stops there). I think Ukraine needs to systematically dismantle the Russian defensive line and needs to find a way to do so with acceptable losses to their own forces.

 

Again, increasing the conscription age from 27 to 30 tells us something - Russia runs out of Mobiks at the frontline. They need a constant supply to put them into the front line meat grinder, otherwise the front will break down.

[Xerxes]

23 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Russia is like Germany in 1917.  Germany pulled back to the Siegfried line but they almost lost all the offensive capability. I dont think they can free up manpower do another offensive yet (the analogy to WW1 stops there). I think Ukraine needs to systematically dismantle the Russian defensive line and needs to find a way to do so with acceptable losses to their own forces.

 

Again, increasing the conscription age from 27 to 30 tells us something - Russia runs out of Mobiks at the frontline. They need a constant supply to put them into the front line meat grinder, otherwise the front will break down.

Didn’t Germany launched one of its strongest campaign on the Western front in 1917, before American troop builder reached critical mass. That 1917 campaign was not a clogged affair like the one in 1916 where all the kinetic energy got absorbed at Verdun. 

[Xerxes]

Ref:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_spring_offensive
 

Ludendorff offensive, named after its master. Looks like I got the year wrong. It was 1918 and not 1917 

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

Thats a discussion of expanding security guarantees until Ukraine is a member of NATO. There is zero chance the US is winding down support of Ukraine while the war is ongoing. Trump and Desantis can't score any points by arguing that we should allow Russia to complete their torture, rape and genocide of the Ukraine.

Actually, it is very easy to show to US taxpayers why we should stop funding Ukraine.  Ask US citizens - would you prefer $300 tax reduction for every person in your family or send that money instead to Ukraine and see the results!  I would be that if a nationwide referendum was held, not even 40% would vote to help Ukraine rather than their own pocket.  Ukraine was derelict in its duty to build an army that could deter Russia, instead its politicians were busy pillaging the country.  Responsibility for Ukrainian defense rests with Ukraine, not the US!  

[cubsfan]

^^^^ Best to hold your nose and fund it.

 

What have we spent - $150B maybe?

 

If we didn’t- Russia would be in Poland by now…

[Dinar]

32 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^^ Best to hold your nose and fund it.

 

What have we spent - $150B maybe?

 

If we didn’t- Russia would be in Poland by now…

No, Poland is a member of NATO, so Russia would not dare.  

[cubsfan]

^^^ Okay- so they’d be sitting at the border - close enough.

 

Money we’ll spent 

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

^^^^ Best to hold your nose and fund it.

 

What have we spent - $150B maybe?

 

If we didn’t- Russia would be in Poland by now…

$150B to destroy the Russians ability to create havoc is peanuts in the great scheme of things.

[changegonnacome]

1 minute ago, Spekulatius said:

$150B to destroy the Russians ability to create havoc is peanuts in the great scheme of things.

 

Bargain for sure......from a purely US strategic policy perspective

[ValueArb]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

Actually, it is very easy to show to US taxpayers why we should stop funding Ukraine.  Ask US citizens - would you prefer $300 tax reduction for every person in your family or send that money instead to Ukraine and see the results!  I would be that if a nationwide referendum was held, not even 40% would vote to help Ukraine rather than their own pocket.  Ukraine was derelict in its duty to build an army that could deter Russia, instead its politicians were busy pillaging the country.  Responsibility for Ukrainian defense rests with Ukraine, not the US!  

The US federal government is spending nearly $20,000 a year per family member, $300 is a drop in the bucket. 
 

As for the rest of your rant, it’s a pure Russian propaganda point to say Ukrainian politicians were “pillaging” the country. It was steadily making headway  against its corruption issues, or at least it was before Russia started slamming missiles into its civilian centers on a daily basis.

 

If responsibility for Ukraines defense relies solely in its hands, then can’t we say the same about Taiwan? And South Korea? Isn’t it’s South Korea’s responsibility that it didn’t deter the North’s invasion to begin with?

 

And why are we even in NATO? Wasn’t it West Germanys responsibility to deter 400 divisions of the Warsaw Pact so we, the UK and France could keep taxes low? And wasn’t it our responsibility to throw the British out without the assistance of the French navy? After all our politicians kneeled before that king for decades, didn’t they create the problem?

 

Not assisting free nations to protect themselves from the predations of totalitarian regimes ultimately ends in only one way, with the US surrounded by powerful enemies with few friends willing to help us. Conquering Ukraine increases Russian GDP by 25% to start, and clinches the reabsorption of Georgia, Belarussia, and a half dozen or more other former Russian republics making Putin far stronger and more dangerous, bringing back the Cold War in a hurry.

 

But no worry, we’ll have tiny tax breaks in the meantime. 

[dwy000]

3 hours ago, Dinar said:

Actually, it is very easy to show to US taxpayers why we should stop funding Ukraine.  Ask US citizens - would you prefer $300 tax reduction for every person in your family or send that money instead to Ukraine and see the results!  I would be that if a nationwide referendum was held, not even 40% would vote to help Ukraine rather than their own pocket.  Ukraine was derelict in its duty to build an army that could deter Russia, instead its politicians were busy pillaging the country.  Responsibility for Ukrainian defense rests with Ukraine, not the US!  

It's not actual cash funded. It's the value of weapons, most of which are dated and simply sitting in an aging stockpile.  

[Dinar]

@ValueArb, when you make up numbers, you lose credibility.   Ukraine GDP was $211bn in 2021 and Russian GDP 1.78 trillion in 2021, so how do you get 25%?  US is not spending $20K per capita, even if you include Social Security and Medicare.   

 

Calling something a Russian propaganda point does not make it incorrect, or if Putin says 2+2 = 4, you will say it is not 4?  How did Firstash, Kolomoisky, Akhmetov, Yulia Timoshenko et all make their fortunes?

 

What makes you think that Putin wants to add 70MM Muslims to Russia (Uzbekistan+Tajikistan+Turkmenistan+Kyrgizstan+Azerbajian)?

 

Yes, national defense is the job of the country, not someone else.  Russia is not the USSR, neither in population nor in military might.  

 

 

Before 1917, Ukraine (excluding Galicia which was added post World War II), was referred as little Russia in Russian literature, including by authors such as Paustovsky, a descendant of Ukrainian Getman.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ValueArb]

21 minutes ago, Dinar said:

@ValueArb, when you make up numbers, you lose credibility.   Ukraine GDP was $211bn in 2021 and Russian GDP 1.78 trillion in 2021, so how do you get 25%? 

 

Ok, 12.5% more GDP and 25% more troops by population.

 

 

21 minutes ago, Dinar said:

 

US is not spending $20K per capita, even if you include Social Security and Medicare.   
 

 

Last year federal spending was $6.1 trillion across a 330M population. 

 

21 minutes ago, Dinar said:

 

Calling something a Russian propaganda point does not make it incorrect, or if Putin says 2+2 = 4, you will say it is not 4?  How did Firstash, Kolomoisky, Akhmetov, Yulia Timoshenko et all make their fortunes?

 

It’s still a Russian propaganda talking point even if as I said, it was partially true. And Russia not only scores higher on corruption indexes, it has been probably the largest force working to corrupt Ukrainian politicians.

 

But by all means, let’s punish the Ukrainian citizens for throwing out a president Putin and the FSB foisted on them.

 

21 minutes ago, Dinar said:

 

What makes you think that Putin wants to add 70MM Muslims to Russia (Uzbekistan+Tajikistan+Turkmenistan+Kyrgizstan+Azerbajian)?

 

Why did he fight two wars to control Chechnya, to the point of having the FSB bomb Moscow apartments and kill hundreds of Russians in order to blame them? Resources and manpower count for more than religion. 
 

21 minutes ago, Dinar said:

 

Yes, national defense is the job of the country, not someone else.  Russia is not the USSR, neither in population nor in military might.  

 

It’s no longer the USSR, your perspective is to not worry about it until it’s well on its way of being rebuilt. Mine is to stop it from ever being rebuilt. 
 

21 minutes ago, Dinar said:

 

Before 1917, Ukraine (excluding Galicia which was added post World War II), was referred as little Russia in Russian literature, including by authors such as Paustovsky, a descendant of Ukrainian Getman.  

Kyiv was the original capital of the Kieven-Rus. They’ve long had close ties, similar languages, era. So what? Russia also has a history of genocide in Ukraine and Crimea to bend them to its knee. Who cares what patronizing names Russian imperialists have called them?

[Xerxes]

20 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

Why did he fight two wars to control Chechnya, to the point of having the FSB bomb Moscow apartments and kill hundreds of Russians in order to blame them? Resources and manpower count for more than religion. 

Well said. Too bad no one batted an eye in the West at the time on that casus belli 

[Eng12345]

7 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

Thats a discussion of expanding security guarantees until Ukraine is a member of NATO. There is zero chance the US is winding down support of Ukraine while the war is ongoing. Trump and Desantis can't score any points by arguing that we should allow Russia to complete their torture, rape and genocide of the Ukraine.

There is zero chance Ukraine ends the war without security guarantees either. Ultimately Ukraine and the Biden administration are now tied at the hip for better or worse. Security guarantees for Ukraine are literally the first step to finding a peace solution, because for Ukraine there is no other alternative. 

 

That said I think it would be rather easy for Trump/Desantis to bang the political drumbeat of "billions spent on Ukraine while millions of americans dreams are inflated away". I don't see how the democrats can successfully campaign on the back of a stalled offensive or stalemate. So provided there is no major Ukrainian breakthrough I think what we ultimately see this fall/winter is some sort of peace negotiations. 

[Eng12345]

2 hours ago, ValueArb said:

The US federal government is spending nearly $20,000 a year per family member, $300 is a drop in the bucket. 
 

As for the rest of your rant, it’s a pure Russian propaganda point to say Ukrainian politicians were “pillaging” the country. It was steadily making headway  against its corruption issues, or at least it was before Russia started slamming missiles into its civilian centers on a daily basis.

 

If responsibility for Ukraines defense relies solely in its hands, then can’t we say the same about Taiwan? And South Korea? Isn’t it’s South Korea’s responsibility that it didn’t deter the North’s invasion to begin with?

 

And why are we even in NATO? Wasn’t it West Germanys responsibility to deter 400 divisions of the Warsaw Pact so we, the UK and France could keep taxes low? And wasn’t it our responsibility to throw the British out without the assistance of the French navy? After all our politicians kneeled before that king for decades, didn’t they create the problem?

 

Not assisting free nations to protect themselves from the predations of totalitarian regimes ultimately ends in only one way, with the US surrounded by powerful enemies with few friends willing to help us. Conquering Ukraine increases Russian GDP by 25% to start, and clinches the reabsorption of Georgia, Belarussia, and a half dozen or more other former Russian republics making Putin far stronger and more dangerous, bringing back the Cold War in a hurry.

 

But no worry, we’ll have tiny tax breaks in the meantime. 

On a realpolitik level I 100% agree with you - we should continue to support Ukraine for American interests. However I think it is going to become politically much harder to do so without some major successes shown. 

 

Realistically I truly believe the west reacted well to prevent a complete loss of Ukraine, but too slow to provide arms and still is acting too slow to provide weapons Ukraine needs to have a chance of making a breakthrough. 

[Dinar]

26 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

Ok, 12.5% more GDP and 25% more troops by population.

 

 

 

Last year federal spending was $6.1 trillion across a 330M population. 

 

 

It’s still a Russian propaganda talking point even if as I said, it was partially true. And Russia not only scores higher on corruption indexes, it has been probably the largest force working to corrupt Ukrainian politicians.

 

But by all means, let’s punish the Ukrainian citizens for throwing out a president Putin and the FSB foisted on them.

 

 

Why did he fight two wars to control Chechnya, to the point of having the FSB bomb Moscow apartments and kill hundreds of Russians in order to blame them? Resources and manpower count for more than religion. 
 

 

It’s no longer the USSR, your perspective is to not worry about it until it’s well on its way of being rebuilt. Mine is to stop it from ever being rebuilt. 
 

Kyiv was the original capital of the Kieven-Rus. They’ve long had close ties, similar languages, era. So what? Russia also has a history of genocide in Ukraine and Crimea to bend them to its knee. Who cares what patronizing names Russian imperialists have called them?

When did Russia conduct genocide in Ukraine? j What is exactly the history of Russian genocide in Ukraine?   Yes, Ukrainian writers were Russian imperialists, good point!   Keep deluding yourself that Russia is a threat to the US, meanwhile Russia cannot even defeat Ukraine.  

[Dinar]

@ValueArb, by the way, there is a history of genocide conducted by Ukrainians against Jews and Poles, or do those do not count?  Or and how many Russians were massacred by Ukrainian SS volunteers in World War II - division Galitchina?  Bandera & Sushkevich are Ukrainian national heroes, how are they different from Hitler?  

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

When did Russia conduct genocide in Ukraine? j What is exactly the history of Russian genocide in Ukraine?   Yes, Ukrainian writers were Russian imperialists, good point!   Keep deluding yourself that Russia is a threat to the US, meanwhile Russia cannot even defeat Ukraine.  

Russia can easily defeat Ukraine, if we drop our support.

 

And history is full of Russian genocide against the Ukraine, including Holodomor, deportation  and massacres of the Tatars, the liquidation of the Ukrainian Peoples Republic in 1921.

 

That’s just in the last century. And skips Russian genocides in nearby countries like Poland.

[ValueArb]

46 minutes ago, Dinar said:

@ValueArb, by the way, there is a history of genocide conducted by Ukrainians against Jews and Poles, or do those do not count?  Or and how many Russians were massacred by Ukrainian SS volunteers in World War II - division Galitchina?  Bandera & Sushkevich are Ukrainian national heroes, how are they different from Hitler?  

Ukrainians rightly hated Russia gir the genocides of 1920s and 1930s. If I was a  Ukrainian I think I would have thrown my lot in with the Germans over the Soviets too.

 

And too bad those poles and Jews weren’t able to gain the protection of the Soviet forces er whoops.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antisemitism_in_the_Soviet_Union

 

Why is every defense of Russia always devolve into a Whataboutism?  “other people did bad stuff” is never a justification for genocide of entire populations. 

Who in Ukraine today is complicit in those crimes? Their “Nazi” Jewish President who lost family in the Holocaust? 

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, ValueArb said:

Russia can easily defeat Ukraine, if we drop our support.

 

And history is full of Russian genocide against the Ukraine, including Holodomor, deportation  and massacres of the Tatars, the liquidation of the Ukrainian Peoples Republic in 1921.

 

That’s just in the last century. And skips Russian genocides in nearby countries like Poland.

Holodomor was not Russian Genocide.  It was Soviet genocide, oh and the Soviet Union was run by a Georgian - Stalin at the name.  How is liquidation of Ukrainian Peoples Republic genocide?  Massacres of Tatars?  Care to provide details?  Or are you referring to deportation of Crimean Tatars under Stalin?  

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, ValueArb said:

Ukrainians rightly hated Russia gir the genocides of 1920s and 1930s. If I was a  Ukrainian I think I would have thrown my lot in with the Germans over the Soviets too.

 

And too bad those poles and Jews weren’t able to gain the protection of the Soviet forces er whoops.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antisemitism_in_the_Soviet_Union

 

Why is every defense of Russia always devolve into a Whataboutism?  “other people did bad stuff” is never a justification for genocide of entire populations. 

Who in Ukraine today is complicit in those crimes? Their “Nazi” Jewish President who lost family in the Holocaust? 

I don't defend Russia.  I have hated Putin since I first heard of him in the 1990s.   Anyone who joined KGB voluntarily in my opinion was not a good person. 

 

Russia did not commit genocide in Ukraine in 1920s and 1930s.  The communist run USSR with Stalin (a Georgian) did via Holodomor.    

 

I would understand if someone whose family died during Holodomor would join the German army to get revenge against communists, but SS?  

 

Yes, Katyn was a massacre and a war crime, what is your point?  Yes, there was anti-semitism in the USSR, and only death of Stalin saved Soviet Jews from mass murder.  That gives Bandera & Co a pass?  Bandera and his men were responsible for over one hundred thousand Polish and Jewish civilian deaths.  How is he different from Hitler?  A civilized country would consider him a war criminal, today's Ukraine erects statues to him.   A population and country that considers someone like Hitler a national hero does not deserve support in my book.  

 

Yes, I understand that not everyone in Ukraine supports Bandera.  My wife and I generously donated to help Ukrainian refugees, since I do not hold children responsible for the acts of their parents/grandparents/ancestors. 

 

My wife is from Ukraine and three of my four grandparents are from there.  That does not mean that I am blind to what is going there.

 

Ukraine is irrelevant to the US.  Russia is a rapidly declining power, millions of its young people fled because of the war.  How can it challenge the US?   China yes, India, yes, Islamic terrorists, yes, Iran yes, Pakistan via jihadi exports and nuclear weapons, sure, but Russia?  It is a paper tiger.  

 

[Gamecock-YT]

15 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

Thats a discussion of expanding security guarantees until Ukraine is a member of NATO. There is zero chance the US is winding down support of Ukraine while the war is ongoing. Trump and Desantis can't score any points by arguing that we should allow Russia to complete their torture, rape and genocide of the Ukraine.

I guess you missed Tucker Carlson lambasting Pence for caring about Ukraine more than what was going on in the US. Especially will become an issue if the economy has issues before the election 

[Xerxes]

If I had a satoshi for everytime folks confused/assumed Soviet = Russian equation l, I would have 1 Bitcoin by now. 
 

If Moscow was the nerve centre of the Soviet empire, Ukraine was very much its beating heart:  Ukraine was a pillar of the Soviet Union, feeding its population, contributing its engineering know-how to the military industry complex (Antonov is Ukrainian), and provided politicians, generals, soldiers and farmers to the Communist cause. 
 

- Trotsky was an Ukrainian Jew

- Stalin was a Georgian (Soviet leader)

- Khurushev was Ukrainian (Soviet leader)

- Brezhnov was Ukrainian (Soviet leader)

- Chernenko was Ukrainian (I think)

- Mikoyan brothers were Armenians (one was a politician and another was founder of the company that makes MIGs)

- 1 of the only three Admiral of the Fleet was Armenian 

Etc.

 

Quiz: 

How many years of that multi decade Soviet existence, did an actual full blooded Russian led the empire ??

If you dislike the Soviet Union and what it stands for (as rightly you should), then you need to dislike Ukrainian contribution to it as well. And not to think of Ukraine as Ewoks under Imperial yoke. Or some other Western fantasy. There is nothing wrong for Ukraine to fight for a separate and authentic Western future. But don’t ignore the history just because it suits your own good-guy-bad-guy biases. 
 

Soviets committed atrocities against all the people they ruled, including Russians and Ukrainians. 

[Xerxes]

I should add:  paradoxically, perhaps that it why Putin would never be able re-assemble the Soviet empire.
 

Russia, Ukraine and Belorussia were the pillars of the Soviet Union, with the first two being major pillars. 
 

Without Ukraine willing participation in Soviet Union 2.0 project, it would never be. USSR 1.0 would be nothing without Ukraine. 

 

What people get wrong is that, despite all the bravado from Putin about resurrecting USSR, what he really clamours for is the Tsarist empire, where the Russian stock held supreme. But no one wants that. So he talks about USSR and the nostalgia. 

Edited August 3, 2023 by Xerxes