Russia-Ukrainian War

[Spekulatius]

9 hours ago, mcliu said:

It depends on who you ask. The people of Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Libya, Palestine, Vietnam, Korea, Serbia and many Central American and African countries might disagree.

 

I don't think a strategy of containment against China is viable. The country is far too large and well-connected to the world.

It's far better to pursue a strategy of improving our domestic situation. The US won the Cold War because it was clear to the Soviets and the World that the US system delivered far better outcomes.

 

Unfortunately when you look at the statistics today, in terms of healthcare, education, crime, safety, growth, China's system offers a very compelling alternative. Part of it is due to brilliant leadership in China, but the bigger part is because the US has squandered so many opportunities and pursued idiotic domestic and foreign policies.

I disagree on brilliant leadership. Xi is still a bonehead autocrat. Invest there at your own peril, especially if you are at the western side of the fence, it can end up bad very quickly.

[mcliu]

15 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I disagree on brilliant leadership. Xi is still a bonehead autocrat. Invest there at your own peril, especially if you are at the western side of the fence, it can end up bad very quickly.

If you look at the mess that Deng Xiao Ping inherited vs. the country today. I think it took a lot of brilliant leadership and strategic thinking to turn things around.

 

I think it may be too early to judge Xi and the future is difficult to predict, but we will see in the coming years.

 

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by mcliu

[zippy1]

34 minutes ago, mcliu said:

If you look at the mess that Deng Xiao Ping inherited vs. the country today. I think it took a lot of brilliant leadership and strategic thinking to turn things around.

 

I think it may be too early to judge Xi and the future is difficult to predict, but we will see in the coming years.

 

 

I think the question is whether China is turning away from what made it successful in the past 30 years or not. Don't forget CCP created the mess that Deng inherited in the first place.  CCP does have that capacity to make such a mess.  Just look at its COVID policy. 

[mcliu]

9 hours ago, zippy1 said:

I think the question is whether China is turning away from what made it successful in the past 30 years or not. Don't forget CCP created the mess that Deng inherited in the first place.  CCP does have that capacity to make such a mess.  Just look at its COVID policy. 

Yes, but the future is difficult to predict.

They created part of the mess from the bad policies of the 1950-70s. But it's not like China wasn't a mess before the CCP took over. You had a century of mismanagement under Qing, Western colonialism, opium crisis/war and then decades of internal turmoil/facism/corruption/civil war followed by WW2 against Japan and more civil war.

 

The fact that China has pivoted from zero covid and tech-repression and wolf-warrior diplomacy is a sign that they are learning and reflecting on public feedback.

 

This whole "China bad Russia bad thing" feels like a way to distract us from our government's incompetence. The West has largely stagnated the last few decades in improving quality of life. Life expectancy is declining in the US and is now below China despite having 3-4x higher GDP. How did this happen and what is the govt response? Of course exit Afghanistan & fight a proxy war in Ukraine!

Edited April 17, 2023 by mcliu

[Spekulatius]

China without the CCP does exist, it’s called Taiwan. There is no reason to believe that China couldn't look like Taiwan’s economy if Mao had lost the civil war against Chiang Kai-shek.

Edited April 18, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

Tanks-a-lot:  A portfolio of call options is now in the money

 

 

[Ulti]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia-richard-haass-west-battlefield-negotiations

good article on possible endgame

[Xerxes]

Great episodes on the air side of the conflict. For those interested in platforms in general, MIG31s with their long-range look-down AWACS killer missiles seemed to have found a use in the war. Picking targets afar down below, while the S400 forces the defender’ air assets to stay low, making them easier prey. 
 

I think after Desert Storm, and U.S. doctrine in achieving air supremacy, collectively we have been “brainwashed” into thinking that is always the case. Clearly not.

 

The air war here has been one of attritional contest with the defenders hugely disadvantaged, not only numerically, while the aggressor keeping most of its air assets out of reach and out of conflict zone except as launch platforms. 
 

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/aviation-weeks-check-6-podcast/id840308131?i=1000608661749

[Xerxes]

On 4/17/2023 at 11:55 AM, Spekulatius said:

China without the CCP does exist, it’s called Taiwan. There is no reason to believe that China couldn't look like Taiwan’s economy if Mao had lost the civil war against Chiang Kai-shek.

Taiwan was largely a dictatorship until

not long ago. We just don’t know how it would have turned out. You cannot just change one parameter (Mao loses; Chiang Kai Shek wins), skip the Taiwan of 1970s, 80s and project the democratic Taiwan of the 2000s on a continental scale. Et Voila !

That said on current administration in Beijing, I agree that wisdom is lacking. Here is a quote from Deng about their dispute with Japan on few islands:

 

 “Our generation is not wise enough to find common language on this question,” … “Our next generation will certainly be wiser. They will certainly find a solution acceptable to all.”

 

Deng Xiaoping in 1978

 

[Xerxes]

On 3/5/2023 at 10:54 AM, Xerxes said:

Some interesting parallels between the Crimean War of the 1850s and today. Few interesting excerpts on then different points of views, as seen from their capitals.  

 

First excerpt explains the overwhelming role the Tsar played most of all in the conflict. But not just him. Everybody played a role and wanted to have their pound of flesh. 
 

Think of then Turkey as Ukraine, both victims of Russia.
 

Think of today’s Russian oriented Donbas (Ukrainian territory) as then pro-Russian “Wallachia and Moldova” that were formally part of the Ottoman territories. Moscow coveted both then and now. 
 

 

The next except, is the rise of anti Russian political views, in London that started to shape its foreign policy. It was the epoch of the “Great Game”. 
 

 

The Queen point of view that Britain foreign policy was being held hostage by a blank check provided to the Ottoman court by the British Parliament. 
 

 

Even after the earlier Russian defeat in the Balkans, the “war party” needed to have its war. The full course. 
 

Invasion of Crimea was launched soon after. 
 

 

 

Ref: https://www.amazon.ca/Crimean-War-History-Orlando-Figes-ebook/dp/B004QGY3YI/ref=mp_s_a_1_1?crid=21MWP0FQRPBO1&keywords=crimean+war&qid=1678032962&sprefix=crimean+war%2Caps%2C118&sr=8-1

 

Disclaimer: This post is for entertainment purposes only, no need to reply that the two wars are actually different etc etc

 

 

 

Finish reading this book. Some more interesting passages :

 

 

memories of war:

 

[mcliu]

On 4/17/2023 at 11:55 AM, Spekulatius said:

China without the CCP does exist, it’s called Taiwan. There is no reason to believe that China couldn't look like Taiwan’s economy if Mao had lost the civil war against Chiang Kai-shek.

 

I don't think it's comparable. Taiwan is China without CCP is like saying USA is UK without the Monarchy. No idea how China would have turned out if KMT won, possibly far worse. As Xerxes pointed out, Chiang was a fascist dictator not much better than Mao. (Turns out Azov is not the first facists that the US has supported lol.)

 

Excess Mortality under Nationalist rule[edit]

Historian Rudolph Rummel documents that from its founding down to its defeat in 1949, the Nationalist government under Chiang's central leadership probably caused the deaths of between roughly 6 and 18.5 million people. The major causes include:^[83]

• Thousands of communists and communist sympathizers were killed during and in the year after the 1927 Shanghai massacre.
• In 1938, to stop Japanese advance, Chiang ordered the Yellow River dikes to be breached. An official postwar commission estimated that the total number of those who perished from malnutrition, famine, disease, or drowning might be as high as 800,000.^[84]
• In 1943, 1.75 to 2.5 million Henan civilians starved to death due to grain being confiscated and sold for the profit of Nationalist government officials.
• 4,212,000 Chinese perished during the Second Sino-Japanese War and Civil War starving to death or dying from disease during conscription campaigns.^[85]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_28_incident

In 1945, following the surrender of Japan at the end of World War II, the Allies handed administrative control of Taiwan over to China, thus ending 50 years of Japanese colonial rule. Local residents became resentful of what they saw as high-handed and frequently corrupt conduct on the part of the Kuomintang (KMT) authorities, including the arbitrary seizure of private property, economic mismanagement, and exclusion from political participation. The flashpoint came on February 27, 1947, in Taipei, when agents of the State Monopoly Bureau struck a Taiwanese widow suspected of selling contraband cigarettes. An officer then fired into a crowd of angry bystanders, striking one man, who died the next day.^[8] Soldiers fired upon demonstrators the next day, after which a radio station was seized by protesters and news of the revolt was broadcast to the entire island. As the uprising spread, the KMT–installed governor Chen Yi called for military reinforcements, and the uprising was violently put down by the National Revolutionary Army. Two years later, and for 38 years thereafter, the island would be placed under martial law in a period known as the "White Terror."^[8]

The number of deaths from the incident and massacre was estimated to be between 18,000 and 28,000.^[12]

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Terror_(Taiwan)

Deaths	At least 3,000 to 4,000 executed, not including 228 incident (18,000 to 28,000 killed) or extrajudicial executions[1]
Victims	At least 140,000 imprisoned

 

Keep in mind Taiwan's population at the time was probably around 5m. So they imprisoned or killed at least 3-5% of the population.

[zippy1]

1 hour ago, mcliu said:

 

I don't think it's comparable. Taiwan is China without CCP is like saying USA is UK without the Monarchy. No idea how China would have turned out if KMT won, possibly far worse. As Xerxes pointed out, Chiang was a fascist dictator not much better than Mao. (Turns out Azov is not the first facists that the US has supported lol.)

 

Excess Mortality under Nationalist rule[edit]

Historian Rudolph Rummel documents that from its founding down to its defeat in 1949, the Nationalist government under Chiang's central leadership probably caused the deaths of between roughly 6 and 18.5 million people. The major causes include:^[83]

• Thousands of communists and communist sympathizers were killed during and in the year after the 1927 Shanghai massacre.
• In 1938, to stop Japanese advance, Chiang ordered the Yellow River dikes to be breached. An official postwar commission estimated that the total number of those who perished from malnutrition, famine, disease, or drowning might be as high as 800,000.^[84]
• In 1943, 1.75 to 2.5 million Henan civilians starved to death due to grain being confiscated and sold for the profit of Nationalist government officials.
• 4,212,000 Chinese perished during the Second Sino-Japanese War and Civil War starving to death or dying from disease during conscription campaigns.^[85]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_28_incident

In 1945, following the surrender of Japan at the end of World War II, the Allies handed administrative control of Taiwan over to China, thus ending 50 years of Japanese colonial rule. Local residents became resentful of what they saw as high-handed and frequently corrupt conduct on the part of the Kuomintang (KMT) authorities, including the arbitrary seizure of private property, economic mismanagement, and exclusion from political participation. The flashpoint came on February 27, 1947, in Taipei, when agents of the State Monopoly Bureau struck a Taiwanese widow suspected of selling contraband cigarettes. An officer then fired into a crowd of angry bystanders, striking one man, who died the next day.^[8] Soldiers fired upon demonstrators the next day, after which a radio station was seized by protesters and news of the revolt was broadcast to the entire island. As the uprising spread, the KMT–installed governor Chen Yi called for military reinforcements, and the uprising was violently put down by the National Revolutionary Army. Two years later, and for 38 years thereafter, the island would be placed under martial law in a period known as the "White Terror."^[8]

The number of deaths from the incident and massacre was estimated to be between 18,000 and 28,000.^[12]

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Terror_(Taiwan)

Deaths	At least 3,000 to 4,000 executed, not including 228 incident (18,000 to 28,000 killed) or extrajudicial executions[1]
Victims	At least 140,000 imprisoned

 

Keep in mind Taiwan's population at the time was probably around 5m. So they imprisoned or killed at least 3-5% of the population.

It indeed is not clear how China will turn out if KMT won.

However, there are many places in East Asia that one can benchmark. South Korea and Japan were both sort of bombed back to stone age in late 1940s-early 1950s.
If we compare Japan and South Korea against China from 1949 to 1980, it is not clear that China's progress in this period was that impressive. 
It seems that the great progress that China made since 1980s was really made more impressive by the serious mismanagement in 1940s-1970s. If one examines the overall progress from 1949 to today as a whole, it seems much less impressive when compared against Japan and South Korea.  And there is only one ruling party in China during this period. One should not only look at the period after 1980s.

Edited April 19, 2023 by zippy1

[Spekulatius]

I am not implying that China Kai  Shek was great, but we do have the natural experiments of Taiwan- China, South Korea- North Korea (and West Germany- East Germany ) showing us how good communism really worked. Now the CCP is evolving obviously after Mao but I think under Xinping, they are taking a huge step backwards, because after all, he is a Neo Maoist.

 

Both Taiwan and South Korea were army backed regimes that turned democratic over time.

 

I would even state that Ukraine - Russia is the same thing. Ukraine slowly tries to become more Democratic in fits and starts after the Maiden revolutions, while Russia tries really hard to stay an autocratic hellhole with Putin being a Neo czar role in the 21 century.

 

In investment lingo, Taiwan, South Korea and Ukraine are spin-offs.

Edited April 19, 2023 by Spekulatius

[mcliu]

9 hours ago, zippy1 said:

It indeed is not clear how China will turn out if KMT won.

However, there are many places in East Asia that one can benchmark. South Korea and Japan were both sort of bombed back to stone age in late 1940s-early 1950s.
If we compare Japan and South Korea against China from 1949 to 1980, it is not clear that China's progress in this period was that impressive. 
It seems that the great progress that China made since 1980s was really made more impressive by the serious mismanagement in 1940s-1970s. If one examines the overall progress from 1949 to today as a whole, it seems much less impressive when compared against Japan and South Korea.  And there is only one ruling party in China during this period. One should not only look at the period after 1980s.

I think there's a degree of hindsight bias in using Korea and Japan as benchmarks since we already know they were the best performers. Wouldn't India (similar population) or Russia (similar ideology) or a basket of Asian countries (Philippines, Thailand, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, etc.) be a better benchmark? It's like using Apple or Google as a benchmark instead of the S&P 500.

 

I agree with you that China might have gotten here sooner without the 50-70s. However, once again that's with the benefit of hindsight. In the 1950s, communism was a relatively new experiment and nobody knew the outcome. USSR was a superpower then and China sought to emulate that model. But even prior to the CCP, China was poorly managed for hundreds of years, latter half of Qing to end of KMT, which might be why people turned to the CCP in the first place.

 

Obviously the data is very sparse prior to the 1900s, but the trend shows that China was in decline for a long time.

 

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I am not implying that China Kai  Shek was great, but we do have the natural experiments of Taiwan- China, South Korea- North Korea (and West Germany- East Germany ) showing us how good communism really worked. Now the CCP is evolving obviously after Mao but I think under Xinping, they are taking a huge step backwards, because after all, he is a Neo Maoist.

This is possible but it's too early to judge.

 

[Xerxes]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I am not implying that China Kai  Shek was great, but we do have the natural experiments of Taiwan- China, South Korea- North Korea (and West Germany- East Germany ) showing us how good communism really worked. Now the CCP is evolving obviously after Mao but I think under Xinping, they are taking a huge step backwards, because after all, he is a Neo Maoist.

 

Both Taiwan and South Korea were army backed regimes that turned democratic over time.

 

I would even state that Ukraine - Russia is the same thing. Ukraine slowly tries to become more Democratic in fits and starts after the Maiden revolutions, while Russia tries really hard to stay an autocratic hellhole with Putin being a Neo czar role in the 21 century.

 

In investment lingo, Taiwan, South Korea and Ukraine are spin-offs.

I like the “spin-off” analogy. 
 

that said, the only reason there is a prosperous South Korea is because there was a North Korea. Not to say that in an alternate universe, a combined Korea would not have been in prosperous staring in the 1950s. Many things could have happened in the absence of North Korea. The whole west leaning peninsula could have succumbed to communism not through military arms but the spread of ideology that feeds on struggling economies. So a rising South Korea was in reaction to a militarized North Korea. Without North we could not have the South we had. 
 

if Russia was not so autocratic, there would be no Ukraine trying so hard to westernized and be so different. 
 

same can be said about Taiwan. A fall of Maoism could have led to many alternatives scenarios, one of which could have been a total fragmentation of China and back to the warlordism of 1920s. China needs a strong hand to wield the hammer and mold it into one entity. Both Mao and Chian Kai Shek had that in them. But it was never guaranteed to happen. 
 

 

 

 

Edited April 19, 2023 by Xerxes

[cubsfan]

^^^^ The reason South Korea and Japan are economic miracles is because they were obliterated and totally rebuilt under the United States. Capitalism, control and funding by the USA created a rocket ship along with extremely hardworking nationalists. Same can be said for West Germany. So many other countries left in the dust.

[Xerxes]

23 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^^ The reason South Korea and Japan are economic miracles is because they were obliterated and totally rebuilt under the United States. Capitalism, control and funding by the USA created a rocket ship along with extremely hardworking nationalists. Same can be said for West Germany. So many other countries left in the dust.

We are not talking about the Marshall Plan and the rebuilding of Japan. 
 

Taiwan was also an economic miracle (and so was Singapore) and they nothing to do with U.S. funding and rebuilding and such. Same for Korea. 

[cubsfan]

^^^ Not sure I get it @Xerxes. Indeed the rebuild of Korea was funded by the USA.

 

what am I missing?

[Xerxes]

It might be me missing something. Was not aware that Korea rebuilt was funded by U.S.  post-WW2.
 

That explains the ever-presence of 2nd infantry division there for decades now, to keep an eye on investment. 

[cubsfan]

^^ yeah. Japan received nothing from the Marshall Plan. It was USA only.

 

At one point, South Korea’s GDP was 80% USA aid - it was at an very high level until the mid 70’s. Corruption was off the charts, so the USA became more hands on..to get the economic miracle to work.

 

But back to you thesis…

 

The rebuild of Ukraine is gonna hurt like hell and be off the charts expensive - if we ever get there.

 

The corruption might be worse than South Korea - knowing the Ukrainians..

 

[Xerxes]

Understood. Thanks. 

 

On aid to Ukraine, I guess we will see.
 

Japan and Germany were truly unique. The same “command and control” culture that got them into a world war, and the fact that they were subjugated (I.e. unconditional surrender) helped them re-jig their economy and reboot just as the doctor ordered.
 

Korea was an interesting case. Most of the heavy industries that supported the Japanese war machine in the 30s and 40s was located in the northern side of peninsula. So after the second war, the Reds were well endowed when compared to the southern portion of peninsula. That means the U.S. funding that you have alluded to had them going from a much lower base ! So there was a “catch up part to North” to it as well 

 

[Spekulatius]

The economic miracle in Korea started in the mod 60's really but the average grunts slaving away for minimum wages did see little of the wealth that was created. The wealth went to the chaebols Samsung, Hyundai, LG, Lotte who grew in leaps and bounds with exports, based on their cost advantage (low wages). It took until the late 70's until the wealth created started to benefit the average person.

 

These Chaebols are in a way similar to the Oligarch in Russia but I think the chances that the average Russian sees benefit from the system eventually are slim to none.

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Insane footage of close up trench warfare. I count 4 Russian killed in a few minutes. Looks exactly like WW1:

 

Edited April 20, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Castanza]

It is still mind boggling to me that the West is not collectively pushing for peace negotiations. 
 

the US and the West can’t continue to get in nuclear standoffs over every single border dispute for countries who’s borders have been ever changing over the last 75 years. 
 

Zoom out and think about this war and the position of the West from a 30,000  foot view with a humanity based perspective. 
 

There were individuals who fought in the US Civil War that lived long enough to see the testing of Ivy Mike in the Pacific. If you put the Civil War on the event timeline of human history you can basically conclude that it was almost a nuclear war. We got lucky by a factor of nothing on the timeline of human history. The difference between muskets or atomic bombs being used was a blink of an eye on the timescale. 
 

The US and the West should be doing everything in their power to prevent standoffs like this now and in the future. It’s a fools errand and luck will eventually run out. 

[mcliu]

On 4/15/2023 at 11:02 PM, cubsfan said:

I can’t argue with what you just said. The death and decline of the US will come from within.

 

Just like the Roman Empire 

It's not too late for the West because there's such a head start, but we need to stop focusing on frivolous/fringe issues and wars and start fixing the core like addiction/healthcare, education, infrastructure.

 

6 hours ago, Castanza said:

It is still mind boggling to me that the West is not collectively pushing for peace negotiations. 

Totally agree. Nuclear war is THE biggest threat to humanity and this whole proxy war is pushing us closer. The US needs to stop all its wasteful foreign adventures and start fixing domestic problems. Vietnam, then Afghanistan & Iraq were a colossal waste of resources. Is it really a coincidence that shortly after you exit Afghanistan the Ukraine war starts? Or is the military-industrial-political complex pulling strings to create the next conflict?