Russia-Ukrainian War

[Sweet]

3 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Ps : also at some point in 2023, Ukraine moved back from its aspiration to fight like a NATO joint force and revert back to what knows well. Soviet style warfare. 

Was busy earlier but wondered what you meant by this?

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

Was busy earlier but wondered what you meant by this?

I think it was Koffman who spoke to this more than anybody else. 
 

He suggested that neither the Ukrainian nor the Russian armies today are the armies (in terms of composition) that we saw in early 2022, given the high level of attrition. 
 

Ukrainian army has lost its youngest more capable, Western oriented generation and today the army is led by more its Soviet-influenced officers, coming out of retirement to backfill. These folks are more top down as oppose to Western style self sustained decision making at unit level that characterize the early days. 
 

Also, my understanding was that Western advisors were leaning on Ukraine to use combined-army approach, (land and air forces working in close collaboration to make breakthrough), and that at some point during the offensive Ukrainian high command throw in the towel and revert back to what it knows best: artillery duels. Koffman view (if I remember correctly) was that it was a mistake for the West to lean on them to do something they were yet ready for. Something along those lines. Valuable time and resources were lost. 
 

One thing that Ukraine has done really well is waging asymmetrical warfare in the Black Sea and deep within Russia using drones. It doesn’t win your lands back but I suppose you got to keep hitting where it hurts at the underbelly. 
 

 

 

[ValueArb]

On 4/30/2024 at 6:46 AM, Pelagic said:

 

Ukraine hasn't received them yet, for a variety of reasons including training pilots and updating their radar's and electronics. Scheduled delivery is "early summer" so potentially within a month or so they should be arriving in Ukraine. 

 

I used to believe they sandbag delivery estimates so Russia can't fully prepare for them before they arrive. But last week rumors were being printed about Ukraine getting ATACMS with unitary warheads before any have been seen in use, so I'm probably wrong about that. 

[Luke]

On 4/29/2024 at 5:47 PM, Sweet said:

That’s a lie.  The drafted document did not contain anything regarding territory.

 

“The talks had deliberately skirted the question of borders and territory. Evidently, the idea was for Putin and Zelensky to decide on those issues at the planned summit. It is easy to imagine that Putin would have insisted on holding all the territory that his forces had already occupied. The question is whether Zelensky could have been convinced to agree to this land grab. Despite these substantial disagreements, the April 15 draft suggests that the treaty would be signed within two weeks. Granted, that date might have shifted, but it shows that the two teams planned to move fast.”

https://archive.ph/9hKhZ

Your insistence that an agreement was reached in principle but not signed.  This is utterly wrong.  It’s Russian bs.
 

I reread the document, you are right that discussions about the regions are not included but its clear that they wont be returned. I talked with a good friend of mine who is russian and from st.petersburg, also has multiple ukranian friends who have their own little community here in Germany. He also has friends from the annexed regions. In general he said that these regions were looking to Russia for a long time, the regions were shitholes, with no jobs, and bandit kind of local government. The people who didn't like Russia either left before or fled to Ukraine after the war but its not as material as the west might want it to look like. 

On 4/29/2024 at 5:49 PM, Sweet said:

A stalemate is when either side are unable to make significant ground.  Ukraine has had a weapons shortage for 6 months and how much has Russia gained?  Time will tell if Russia can break the stalemate.

Ukraine tried to break through russian lines but miserably failed because they lack man power and weapons. They went on offense and lost and have to grab more and more man that become also more and more unwilling. My russian friend said that in russia/st Petersburg the atmosphere to this war is surprisingly positive, there are many who want to fight and they get paid very very well. But of course, as with China, we only hear how oppressed and miserable their population is. 

On 4/29/2024 at 5:55 PM, Sweet said:

It’s irrelevant who it benefits.  

Absolutely not. At least its relevant if you want to understand why this war gets dragged on so much and why the west is so heavily invested. Did they care that the eastern regions in ukraine were criminal shitholes? Noone cared. But now ukraine is THE media topic in the most positive light. 

On 4/29/2024 at 5:55 PM, Sweet said:

The US tried to prevent the war by publicly releasing classified material in troop build up and Putin’s plans to invade in the hopes Putin would see sense.

The US also hoped that the Russian population would go against Putin and their government would crumble together with the sanctions...all of this didn't materialize. 

On 4/29/2024 at 5:55 PM, Sweet said:

Putin launched it anyway.  He has only himself to blame.  He didn’t want NATO in his border, Sweden and Finland are now NATO counties.  Putin the master strategist.

Well, the Russians certainly learned a lot during the war and look pretty well positioned considering the situation. 

Edited May 2 by Luca

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

Absolutely not. At least its relevant if you want to understand why this war gets dragged on so much and why the west is so heavily invested. Did they care that the eastern regions in ukraine were criminal shitholes? Noone cared. But now ukraine is THE media topic in the most positive light. 

The war is dragging on because the Ukrainians don’t want to be dominated by the Russians, and the Russians would like to take over all of Ukraine.  

 

No further explanation is required.

 

When I say it’s irrelevant who the war benefits I’m specifically referring to your insinuation that it’s the US causing the war to drag on because it suits America.  Bullshit.

It would suit America and Europe just fine if Russia didn’t start the war in the first place.

 

Plenty of people cared about Ukraine before the invasion in 2022.  I remember a tense meeting with Obama and Putin after Russia invaded Ukraine about a decade ago.

 

It’s convenient for you to ignore such concerns but it’s also ironic that it’s people like you that also simultaneously claim that it was the West’s meddling in the Ukrainian’s Orange revolution that started all this.  You can’t have it both ways, the West not caring, but also caring enough to meddle.  Pick one.

 

Edited May 2 by Sweet

[Luke]

5 minutes ago, Sweet said:

The war is dragging on because the Ukrainians don’t want to be dominated by the Russians, and the Russians would like to take over all of Ukraine.  

 

No further explanation is required.

 

When I say it’s irrelevant who the war benefits I’m specifically referring to your insinuation that it’s the US causing the war to drag on because it suits America.  Bullshit.

It would suit America and Europe just fine if Russia didn’t start the war in the first.

 

Plenty of people cared about Ukraine before the invasion in 2022.  I remember a tense meeting with Obama and Putin after Russia invaded Ukraine about a decade ago at a testy meeting.

 

It’s convenient for you to ignore such concerns but it’s also ironic that people it’s like you that also claim it was the West’s meddling in the Ukrainian’s Orange revolution that started all this.  You can’t have it both ways, the West not caring, but also caring enough to meddle.

 

Well, we have to disagree on our analysis but I appreciate the pushback 

[Sweet]

2 minutes ago, Luca said:

Well, we have to disagree on our analysis but I appreciate the pushback 

You are mostly pleasant Luca, to your credit.

[Luke]

15 minutes ago, Sweet said:

You are mostly pleasant Luca, to your credit.

It is a good discussion and I could be wrong, though something is suspect here to me in this war, we will see how this develops and of course: discuss!! LEARNING MACHINE 

Edited May 2 by Luca

[Xerxes]

It is interesting how we the folks in the West are viewing this. Through the lenses of geopolitics .. NATO this, NaTO that, Putin this, Article 5 that, Munich 2008 meeting this etc. 

 

 

I bet actual Russians and Ukrainians are seeing this as a “family quarrel” or a civil war of sort. Geopolitics being secondary to that. 

[Pelagic]

16 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

I used to believe they sandbag delivery estimates so Russia can't fully prepare for them before they arrive. But last week rumors were being printed about Ukraine getting ATACMS with unitary warheads before any have been seen in use, so I'm probably wrong about that. 

 

In general I think most countries involved in providing aid should take the approach that France does and not pre-announce or telegraph their intentions ahead of time, things just show up in Ukrainian hands. The initial small batch of cluster ATACMS last fall is a good example of this policy in action where they just showed up much to everyone's surprise and took out an S-400 battery and a dozen or so helicopters at an airbase in Donetsk. 

 

It's interesting though that the final straw for the Biden admin on providing long range ATACMS was Russia utilizing North Korean and Iranian missiles in Ukraine. 

[ValueArb]

7 hours ago, Luca said:

I reread the document, you are right that discussions about the regions are not included but its clear that they wont be returned. I talked with a good friend of mine who is russian and from st.petersburg, also has multiple ukranian friends who have their own little community here in Germany. He also has friends from the annexed regions. In general he said that these regions were looking to Russia for a long time, the regions were shitholes, with no jobs, and bandit kind of local government. The people who didn't like Russia either left before or fled to Ukraine after the war but its not as material as the west might want it to look like. 
 

Weird how a decade of FSB bribery, corruption and undermining can affect a local economy.

 

7 hours ago, Luca said:

Ukraine tried to break through russian lines but miserably failed because they lack man power and weapons. They went on offense and lost and have to grab more and more man that become also more and more unwilling. My russian friend said that in russia/st Petersburg the atmosphere to this war is surprisingly positive, there are many who want to fight and they get paid very very well. But of course, as with China, we only hear how oppressed and miserable their population is. 
 

 

Of course you aren’t hearing from the Vatniks on the front line. Just those lucky enough to avoid conscription.

. 

7 hours ago, Luca said:

Absolutely not. At least its relevant if you want to understand why this war gets dragged on so much and why the west is so heavily invested. Did they care that the eastern regions in ukraine were criminal shitholes? Noone cared. But now ukraine is THE media topic in the most positive light. 
 

 

weird how the eastern regions weren’t a problem until little green men crossed the border en mass. I guess you think the maiden uprising throwing out Putins hand picked President was the problem?

 

7 hours ago, Luca said:

The US also hoped that the Russian population would go against Putin and their government would crumble together with the sanctions...all of this didn't materialize. 

 

Tell it to Wagner Group. 

7 hours ago, Luca said:

Well, the Russians certainly learned a lot during the war and look pretty well positioned considering the situation. 

Well positioned with blocking battalions to force mountains of under trained vatniks with 50 year old weapons into the meat grinder. 

[Sweet]

 

Interesting thread. And as with other commentary it’s not possible to know what details are true and what are fake.

[ValueArb]

19 hours ago, Sweet said:

 

Interesting thread. And as with other commentary it’s not possible to know what details are true and what are fake.

 

The very idea that any reasonable peace plan was possible is de facto absurd. It would involve Putin giving security guarantees to Ukraine that it could never trust. 

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

 

The very idea that any reasonable peace plan was possible is de facto absurd. It would involve Putin giving security guarantees to Ukraine that it could never trust. 

Exactly

[ValueArb]

Looks like Shoigu is going to get arrested next. Putin is probably shoring up support beforehand to avoid Shoigu taking him out in a coup. 

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/bribery-case-puts-russian-defense-minister-sergei-shoigu-in-the-crosshairs/

[Xerxes]

On 5/3/2024 at 7:47 PM, ValueArb said:

Looks like Shoigu is going to get arrested next. Putin is probably shoring up support beforehand to avoid Shoigu taking him out in a coup. 

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/bribery-case-puts-russian-defense-minister-sergei-shoigu-in-the-crosshairs/

without even reading about any of this, I can say with confidence that you are wrong. 
 

whatever this is, it is an infighting between different fiefdoms and power brokers with the Kremlin.  
 

The Tsar is above all of this. And Generalfeldmarschall Kietel, **cough** I mean Shoigu, is nothing to him. And most certainly, he is not even “coup” worthy as in not sponge-worthy. Even the head of Wagner, bowed before his master.  
 

You don’t get to be Tsar for 20 years by being an idiot. 

[Xerxes]

 

 

Steven Seagal never ceases to amaze me.  

[ValueArb]

12 hours ago, Xerxes said:

without even reading about any of this, I can say with confidence that you are wrong. 
 

whatever this is, it is an infighting between different fiefdoms and power brokers with the Kremlin.  
 

The Tsar is above all of this. And Generalfeldmarschall Kietel, **cough** I mean Shoigu, is nothing to him. And most certainly, he is not even “coup” worthy as in not sponge-worthy. Even the head of Wagner, bowed before his master.  
 

You don’t get to be Tsar for 20 years by being an idiot. 

 

On the surface arresting Timur Ivanov seems like a very direct move against Shoigu.

 

That said I don't we disagree by that much. I will just point out that the Tsar has been incredibly reluctant to move Shoigu out, despite his many failures. So maybe a better explanation is that Putin Soprano is very tight with his capitans because they stole Russia together. Shoigu is either his Silvio or Bobby Baccalieri, either competently doing his bidding behind the scenes or incompetent but unassailably loyal.

 

Sometimes I imagine Putin in a rage over the failures in Ukraine that were directly linked to graft and corruption (like failing truck tires) and then Shoigu reminds Putin that he got the bosses share of the money they stole from the truck maintenance budget.

[Xerxes]

42 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

On the surface arresting Timur Ivanov seems like a very direct move against Shoigu.

 

That said I don't we disagree by that much. I will just point out that the Tsar has been incredibly reluctant to move Shoigu out, despite his many failures. So maybe a better explanation is that Putin Soprano is very tight with his capitans because they stole Russia together. Shoigu is either his Silvio or Bobby Baccalieri, either competently doing his bidding behind the scenes or incompetent but unassailably loyal.

 

Sometimes I imagine Putin in a rage over the failures in Ukraine that were directly linked to graft and corruption (like failing truck tires) and then Shoigu reminds Putin that he got the bosses share of the money they stole from the truck maintenance budget.

Even then I think Shoigu is a useful idiot that helps insulate Putin. More like Pauli !!

 

Below are the five marshals of the Soviet Union before the Great Purge. Three of the five that were most capable didn’t make it through 1937-38. 
 

The other two sailed harmlessly through WW2 even as they were incompetent. And were outshone by Zhukov and the rising stars of the new Red Army, but never lost their network and close association with Stalin. 
 

The two of them that survived the Great Purge were yes-men, personal friend and lackies. There is a premium for that. 

 

Edited May 8 by Xerxes

[Ulti]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/why-ukraine-should-keep-striking-russian-oil-refineries

[ValueArb]

On 5/8/2024 at 8:37 AM, Xerxes said:

Even then I think Shoigu is a useful idiot that helps insulate Putin. More like Pauli !!

 

Below are the five marshals of the Soviet Union before the Great Purge. Three of the five that were most capable didn’t make it through 1937-38. 
 

The other two sailed harmlessly through WW2 even as they were incompetent. And were outshone by Zhukov and the rising stars of the new Red Army, but never lost their network and close association with Stalin. 
 

The two of them that survived the Great Purge were yes-men, personal friend and lackies. There is a premium for that. 

 

 

looks like the other shoe dropped. Either this is just to placate public opinion, or we might see one of these guys mount his own desperate insurrection to save his neck.

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-fires-russia-defense-intelligence-chiefs-sergei-shoigu-nikolai-patrushev/w

[Xerxes]

14 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

looks like the other shoe dropped. Either this is just to placate public opinion, or we might see one of these guys mount his own desperate insurrection to save his neck.

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-fires-russia-defense-intelligence-chiefs-sergei-shoigu-nikolai-patrushev/w

yeah. I just saw that. 
 

a civilian will be heading be the defense ministry now. Apparently. 
 

That said I think Patrushev’ fall is more intriguing as he was an all powerful figure. Shoigu was not. 

[SharperDingaan]

It is only a matter of time until NATO starts doing troop relieving 'training' exercises in the Ukraine, bringing their ammunition/gear with them, and parking it in airfields and warehouses across the Ukraine. 'Lighting up' all planes/drones/transportation in Ukrainian airspace, for potential missile lock.

 

Might even conduct training exercises accompanying grain ships through disputed areas, much as ships are currently accompanied in both the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea today. You get 'X' number of months to get your hot pursuit/invasion done/dusted, after which the rest of the world steps in? 

 

SD

 

 

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, Xerxes said:

yeah. I just saw that. 
 

a civilian will be heading be the defense ministry now. Apparently. 
 

That said I think Patrushev’ fall is more intriguing as he was an all powerful figure. Shoigu was not. 

Having read more, it escaped my attention that Shoigu’ new job is actually Patrushev’ old job as the chief of security council. 
 

So is this more about the fall of the powerful Patrushev (or his reappointment ?!) than fall of Shoigu that media is spinning. 
 

Meanwhile ministry of defense will be headed by a civilian. Would that be an actual effective Albert Speer like figure or another lacky like Shoigu. If the latter, this was clearly about removing Patrushev. 

[Pelagic]

An interesting article on the development of Ukraine's long range drone program. Looks like they've settled in on a standardized design even though there are a handful of other options out there and can start mass producing it now that they know it works.

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2024/05/13/7455462/