Russia-Ukrainian War

[changegonnacome]

4 hours ago, cubsfan said:

It's definitely THE major impediment to funding the war from the US perspective.

It’s the currentl impediment….the REAL impediment is that it just doesn’t matter that much to the US strategically and US voters politically. It therefore will remain a political football and if the fiscal situation ever became a problem it’s clear it would become an easy budget cut for the party of the day (assuming a funding package ever gets done)

 

The mistake in Ukraine was to get into a fight with an opponent who’d happily lose an eye to win (Russia)…..when deep down we knew we’d bail after breaking a nail.
 

You just don’t win fights or proxy flights like this even if your the global superpower…..resolve & persistence are the most underrated military hardware….before you start counting tanks and artillery of your opponent…asking the simple question around for whom this matters more is an excellent go/no go…..I’d posit that unless a strategic victory of some sort can be swiftly swiftly achieved…any great power should not enter a conflict for ten minutes that they wouldn’t be happy to be involved in for 10yrs (to mangle a buffetism)…that simple rule would have saved the US from countless misadventures since WWII.

[ValueArb]

On 4/10/2024 at 9:26 AM, John Hjorth said:

Please go somewhere else for discission of US sealed border.

 

I'm very sorry it became a topic on the thread. It should have nothing to do with Ukraine but unfortunately its the reason the US is dropping the ball on our commitments. And unfortunately it can't be solved until after the election since certain politicians don't want to give a PR win to certain other politicians before it.

 

I'm hoping Europe and UK will pick up the slack until we regain our senses.

[cubsfan]

Unfortunately & plain as day - Americans, overwhelming  want the Southern Border sealed before any more major aid packages go to Ukraine.  Biden can easily solve the roadblock - but it's not likely.

 

https://thefederalist.com/2024/04/16/poll-voters-say-stopping-bidens-border-invasion-is-more-important-than-funding-ukraine/

 

Battleground state swing voters overwhelmingly believe stopping President Biden’s border invasion is more important than bankrolling Ukraine’s forever war with Russia, a newly released poll found.

 

Of those surveyed, 54 percent said the “best approach” for America is to “spend more to secure the U.S. border than to help Ukraine,” while 10 percent said the opposite.

 

 

[Ulti]

Seems like a bipartisan bill was shot down earlier this year ( even the border is patrol urged passage)

https://www.factcheck.org/2024/02/unraveling-misinformation-about-bipartisan-immigration-bill/

[Sweet]

Good. 

 

I do think this is too important.

 

And I think it gets the Ukraine monkey off their back and it allows the GOP to return the focus to the border.

 

Edited April 18 by Sweet

[Luke]

  

Just now, Sweet said:

I’m saying your ideas are fringe to inform others read that I’ve never met anybody in Europe who shares your belief.  They are fringe because it’s truly a moronic take and I think the reasons why are self-evident.

How kind of you, now your limited circle is a rule of thumb of whats legitimate or not? 

Just now, Sweet said:

There is a saying Luca, ‘peace through strength’ and another which is ‘weakness invites aggression.  Two percent was never appropriate.  Putin has been picking away at Ukraine for nearly a decade so it’s strange that Europe only just found religion.

Yes, we shouldn't have no military and be vulnerable. But that also doesn't mean that russia is interested in attacking any nato territory or going into Germany. Its a complete and absolute false interpretation of the situation and of the Russian government. Shall they have the ukraine regions...lets give them that, then we can stop the war, ukraine promises to not enter nato and its highly likely that Putin will accept. 

Just now, Sweet said:

Russian energy and German engineering is not an economic threat to the US.

It is, the whole eurasian axis is a threat to the US world order and they don't want that to happen. 

Just now, Sweet said:

The US has pulled away from Europe many years before the Ukraine war.  Look at the divergence in economic performance from 2008 to the Russian invasion. There is little innovation in Europe, we are over taxed and over regulated.

Our economic performance is now pathetic because we don't have solid fundamentals, even better for the US. Little innovation? I don't know on which planet you are living but we have a lot of top-notch companies. 

Just now, Sweet said:

Russia is not an adversary?  LMAO!  You’re insane.

They are not our best friend but they are a solid partner for trade and especially their exchange of gas for our products and money which we really need.

 

@Sweet

[Sweet]

3 minutes ago, Luca said:

  

How kind of you, now your limited circle is a rule of thumb of whats legitimate or not? 

Yes, we shouldn't have no military and be vulnerable. But that also doesn't mean that russia is interested in attacking any nato territory or going into Germany. Its a complete and absolute false interpretation of the situation and of the Russian government. Shall they have the ukraine regions...lets give them that, then we can stop the war, ukraine promises to not enter nato and its highly likely that Putin will accept. 

It is, the whole eurasian axis is a threat to the US world order and they don't want that to happen. 

Our economic performance is now pathetic because we don't have solid fundamentals, even better for the US. Little innovation? I don't know on which planet you are living but we have a lot of top-notch companies. 

They are not our best friend but they are a solid partner for trade and especially their exchange of gas for our products and money which we really need.

 

@Sweet

So Luca, you’re saying we would be better off closer to Russia whilst simultaneously heralding that Russia would never attack us because of NATO.  Right.

 

European tech companies cannot hold a candle to US.  I wish it wasn’t the case but it’s simply a fact that America beats Europe easily on innovation and technology.

 

[Luke]

8 minutes ago, Sweet said:

So Luca, you’re saying we would be better off closer to Russia whilst simultaneously heralding that Russia would never attack us because of NATO.  Right.

Russian trade was perfectly fine with a nato 8 years before the special operation  

8 minutes ago, Sweet said:

European tech companies cannot hold a candle to US.  I wish it wasn’t the case but it’s simply a fact that America beats Europe easily on innovation and technology.

You said there is little innovation. 

 

1. ASML

2. Novo Nordisk

3. SAP

4. SIEMENS

5. AIRBUS (quite better than Boeing now...;-)) 

6. Lots of medical companies that are very innovative...merck etc

7. Atlas Copco

8. Very high quality automobile producers. 

9. NXP semis

10. BASF

11. Infineon

 

I don't think that's an accurate statement and its also not relevant to the discussion honestly. 

[Sweet]

15 minutes ago, Luca said:

Russian trade was perfectly fine with a nato 8 years before the special operation  

You said there is little innovation. 

 

1. ASML

2. Novo Nordisk

3. SAP

4. SIEMENS

5. AIRBUS (quite better than Boeing now...;-)) 

6. Lots of medical companies that are very innovative...merck etc

7. Atlas Copco

8. Very high quality automobile producers. 

9. NXP semis

10. BASF

11. Infineon

 

I don't think that's an accurate statement and its also not relevant to the discussion honestly. 

I didn’t say Europe has no innovation, I said it had little innovation, and if it wasn’t clear I was making that in comparison to the amount of innovation in America.

 

The only reason this came up was because you said German engineering and Russian resources threatened the US economy.

In 2008 the GDP of Europe was roughly the same size or bigger than US GDP.  Now the US economy is much bigger than Europe’s economy and we have far more people living in Europe.  We are doing something wrong.

 

You named a handful of European companies, the US has far more world leading tech companies.  Airbus is definitely better than Boeing right now, one thing we can agree on at least.

 

 

Edited April 20 by Sweet

[Luke]

8 minutes ago, Sweet said:

I didn’t say Europe has no innovation, I said it had little innovation, and if it wasn’t clear I was making that in comparison to the amount of innovation in America.

I specifically wrote "little" and those companies do not have "little innovation". Agree to disagree. 

8 minutes ago, Sweet said:

The only reason this came up was because said German engineering and Russian resources threatened the US economy.

The eurasian axis is a threat to the US which is why it has to be stopped and why Northstream was bombed by the US. Europe will be drawn into the war between US and China too and its not in our interest. 

8 minutes ago, Sweet said:

In 2008 the GDP of Europe was roughly the same size or bigger than US GDP.  Now the US economy is much bigger than Europe’s economy and we have far more people living in Europe.  We are doing something wrong.

Europes economy compared to the US is not fair, we have very weak countries here...greece was weak, east was and is weak. 

 

I agree that there is too much regulation, Europe can be a powerhouse. Especially with russian resources and open Chinese markets. 

8 minutes ago, Sweet said:

You named a handful of European companies, the US has far more world leading tech companies.  Airbus is definitely better than Boeing right now, one thing we can agree on at least.

Still, we don't have "little innovation". Most of these tech companies in the US quite literally literally depend on European engineering and innovation. 

Edited April 20 by Luca

[cubsfan]

The US & Europe have almost the same interests and have since the end of WWII.

That's why they are great allies. That's why the West has thrived.

 

- peaceful relations

- economic prosperity.

- free trade

 

Why in the world would the US execute on the Marshall Plan if that was not the case?  

I mean - rebuild your enemies Germany & Japan???

 

The result was almost 70 years of peace in Europe.

 

Meanwhile, the Soviet economic plan was a disaster for their subjects, and Mao had to kill 60 million for China to figure out their economic plan wouldn't work. Thank goodness Taiwan & Hong Kong weren't part of the plan.

[cubsfan]

On 4/18/2024 at 2:34 AM, Sweet said:

Good. 

 

I do think this is too important.

 

And I think it gets the Ukraine monkey off their back and it allows the GOP to return the focus to the border.

 

 There ya' go!

 

https://www.dailywire.com/news/house-passes-95-billion-spending-package-for-ukraine-israel-and-taiwan

 

 

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 There ya' go!

 

https://www.dailywire.com/news/house-passes-95-billion-spending-package-for-ukraine-israel-and-taiwan

 

 

“I am ready; aid or no aid”

 

[John Hjorth]

Let's hope for a more - over time - reliable, consistent and smooth support to Ukraine going forward from those nations and institutions, who support Ukraine under its  warfare against Russia.

[Spekulatius]

12 hours ago, cubsfan said:

The US & Europe have almost the same interests and have since the end of WWII.

That's why they are great allies. That's why the West has thrived.

 

- peaceful relations

- economic prosperity.

- free trade

 

Why in the world would the US execute on the Marshall Plan if that was not the case?  

I mean - rebuild your enemies Germany & Japan???

 

The result was almost 70 years of peace in Europe.

 

Meanwhile, the Soviet economic plan was a disaster for their subjects, and Mao had to kill 60 million for China to figure out their economic plan wouldn't work. Thank goodness Taiwan & Hong Kong weren't part of the plan.

Well said. Germany never thrived because of trade with a Russia. The NG dependency from Russia was a self inflicted wound that could have been voided by Merkel. It wasn’t necessary to drive the German industry.

[Luke]

24 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Well said. Germany never thrived because of trade with a Russia. The NG dependency from Russia was a self inflicted wound that could have been voided by Merkel. It wasn’t necessary to drive the German industry.

I wouldnt be so sure about that: 

 

 

 

There is a lot of industry that thrived on cheap russian NG, the impact on GDP is not huge (10%+) but significant enough for our economy to stall. Chemical industry is 10%+ of GDP. Individual households had to pay huge sums to US and other NG producers pushing down domestic demand. 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/14/germany-economy-recession-energy-exports/

 

 

 

[John Hjorth]

45 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Well said. Germany never thrived because of trade with a Russia. The NG dependency from Russia was a self inflicted wound that could have been voided by Merkel. It wasn’t necessary to drive the German industry.

 

Yeah, @Spekulatius,

 

Add to that the German decisions to abolish German nuclear energy before the nuclear power plants EOL, by now amplifying the issues, those decisions in this regard in clear retrospect have turned out to be nothing less than dreadful and very costly, leaving German former energy giants such as E.ON and RWE behind almost as zombie companies laying around in rubbles.

 

CoBF topic : The Direction for Future European Energy : Eurelectric : Statement.

[Xerxes]

It is not complicated folks.
 

Alliance based on deep value goes somewhere. Alliance based on opportunism goes exactly that far. 
 

 

PS: let’s hope Bibi and his pals also have some grand vision of Marshall-plan like plan in mind for post-War Gaza.
 

That is not just blowing things up with no economic and development plans for the day after. Ok fair. The rich Gulf Arabs have to pay. They got too. They are the one that have been sustaining the dream. 
 

Let’s hope just like the Americans with Japan and Germany, Israel don’t have “designs” on actual lands and people living there. Just there to shape geopolitics. And nothing more. 

 

Edited April 21 by Xerxes

[Luke]

17 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

It is not complicated folks.
 

Alliance based on deep value goes somewhere. Alliance based on opportunism goes exactly that far. 

What values do we exactly share with the senile man Biden and Trump and this government? How can the US call itself a democracy when the same two candidates come up AGAIN after how ridiculous their presidency was and the election process? I mean, it's a South Park episode and I am highly skeptical of the state of leadership in the US. It's a very very limited democracy with the same two parties again and again and the same few client oligarch possible presidents up for choice that come from the same backgrounds, Ivy League, close contact to corporate America, running the same political line again, and again, funded by the same elite...this is what China sees, what Russia sees, what Iran sees but what can not be said publicly or you are a conspiracy theorist, Chinese spy or whatever. Then you have a media sector that receives funding by the same clientele that sponsors the presidents and parties, very strict ideological line that you are not allowed to cross or you will receive a public shitstorm by some randoms...Musk says it regularly but then he will get cut from advertising and blocked...alliances are based on mutual interests and I see a lot of differences in interest. 

Edited April 21 by Luca

[Luke]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Yeah, @Spekulatius,

 

Add to that the German decisions to abolish German nuclear energy before the nuclear power plants EOL, by now amplifying the issues, those decisions in this regard in clear retrospect have turned out to be nothing less than dreadful and very costly, leaving German former energy giants such as E.ON and RWE behind almost as zombie companies laying around in rubbles.

 

CoBF topic : The Direction for Future European Energy : Eurelectric : Statement.

Yes, the terrible energy policy from Germany is a major driver and Russia cut off was extra dry firewood on top I agree. 

[Xerxes]

5 minutes ago, Luca said:

What values do we exactly share with the senile man Biden and Trump and this government? How can the US call itself a democracy when the same two candidates come up AGAIN after how ridiculous their presidency was and the election process? I mean, it's a South Park episode and I am highly skeptical of the state of leadership in the US. It's a very very limited democracy with the same two parties again and again and the same few client oligarch possible presidents up for choice that come from the same backgrounds, Ivy League, close contact to corporate America, running the same political line again, and again, funded by the same elite...this is what China sees, what Russia sees, what Iran sees but what can not be said publicly or you are a conspiracy theorist, Chinese spy or whatever. Then you have a media sector that receives funding by the same clientele that sponsors the presidents and parties, very strict ideological line that you are not allowed to cross or you will receive a public shitstorm by some randoms...Musk says it regularly but then he will get cut from advertising and blocked...alliances are based on mutual interests and I see a lot of differences in interest. 

 

It is not about sharing values with the leadership and specific people on the top. If it were like that it would be doom to fail and last exactly as long as those people are in power. That is true both in the West and the Orient.
 

Mao had cordial relationship with Moscow until Stalin died. It was downhill from there. 
 

it is however about having a common belief of what kind of world we should have. This kind of values goes beyond specific leaders and can last for a long time. But it comes with a price tag. One has to give to be part of that. Your point of view of Germany First is actually is no different than Trumpian point of view of America First. 
 

Russia, China, and Iran, today their values are based on very narrow  interests of having a common enemy. That is not deep value. And is in fact highly brittle as it involves leaders and not countries themselves. 
 

An average Iranian, Chinese and Russian living in those countries have far different sets of value and sense of priority. An average European, Canadian and American have a much more aligned sets of value and what it is important.
 

One is brittle while the other is long lasting. But like Cubsfan said, one has to give. 

[Luke]

14 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

It is not about sharing values with the leadership and specific people on the top. If it were like that it would be doom to fail and last exactly as long as those people are in power. That is true both in the West and the Orient.
 

Mao had cordial relationship with Moscow until Stalin died. It was downhill from there. 

It is, look at Trump and what his impact was on German discussion around NATO and our military. Right after he said "Russia can just go, we won't defend Europe because they didn't pay 2%" we had a public debate about how reliable the US as an ally is. Shared values with current leadership...we had 16 years of Angela Merkel and relative stability, but now things look a lot more unstable because leadership changes, and with that the countries set up. 

14 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

it is however about having a common belief of what kind of world we should have. This kind of values goes beyond specific leaders and can last for a long time. But it comes with a price tag. One has to give to be part of that. Your point of view of Germany First is actually is no different than Trumpian point of view of America First. 

Well, I think that every country has a common belief that "development together" and "peace" are good values. China says that, we say that...but then it comes down to interest again...territory...economic advantages...better jobs...having manufacturing...having patents and the right on specific technology...

 

The fundamental human and political world is driven by interest and not by some "alliance". With that mindset you lose sight on what really matters--> Your own interest and that of your country. 

14 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Russia, China, and Iran, today their values are based on very narrow  interests of having a common enemy. That is not deep value. And is in fact highly brittle as it involves leaders and not countries themselves. 

I don't think they have a common enemy as their only shared interest but its of course one point. 

 

They both take care of their interests, which align today but could misalign tomorrow. Always have the option to leave and change partners because nothing is forever and it's better that way. 

14 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

An average Iranian, Chinese and Russian living in those countries have far different sets of value and sense of priority.

Well, those cultures grew up separate for a long time.

14 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

An average European, Canadian and American have a much more aligned sets of value and what it is important.

Because US citizens and Canadians literally came from Europe, that doesn't mean our economic interests align necessarily, especially with changing leadership. 

Edited April 21 by Luca

[John Hjorth]

From what I have read about the recent war sitution and the support package is this giant war support package to Ukranie from USA is not going trigger any European ally to losen up with similar support activity that we have just seen from USA, -at the contrary, likely instead it is and works as stimulation and motivation of the war support at USAs European war allies.

 

Personally I think that what i.e. Mike [ @cubsfan ] has written earlier above in this topic about the overall and present European sentiment and political situation related to the war is quite precise.

[Xerxes]

This was made few days before the $60B aid package.

 

First topic is interesting. I was not aware that “glide bombs” were such a novel thing. The rest is pretty well known. 
 

 

[John Hjorth]

Bloomberg - Politics [24^th April 2024] : Russia Threatens to Increase Strikes on Ukraine Over US Aid.

 

Just the usual Mainstream Media bull shit, - here, from Bloomberg.