Russia-Ukrainian War

[UK]

5 hours ago, RichardGibbons said:

That makes me wonder if the best thing for the world would be the Ukrainian war lasting for a decade.  Horrible for Ukraine, but if nations began to believe that any war is likely to last many years, consuming many lives and resources, I think there would be fewer wars.

 

Honestly, I sometimes think I have no idea even for what scenario to wish, not to mention, that I have not idea of what to expect from all this in the end. Sure all of this could be still very early. I know for sure I feel sickened of all sufferings of Ukrainian people though. Also, living some 100+ miles from Minsk, I definitely do not like possibilities and talks, such as this: 

 

"Vladimir Putin, Mr. Biden noted, views the Baltic countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as rogue Russian provinces. He won’t stop at Ukraine."

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-speaks-but-will-he-act-61fe471c

 

But intuitively (and maybe wrongly), I think response should be much more forceful (especially from Europe) and quick. Big mistakes were already made and good opportunities lost by dragging this out or not preparing even now much more for the future.

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, Sweet said:

To quote a US general on this, referring to US equipment being the best in the world, but Chinese are building their kit rapidly - “quantity is a quality of its own”.

 

Having advanced technology is important but you also need the ability to pump out military equipment at a vast rate.  Even if is lower technology, quantity is important.

 

Definitely true. In 1943, the production of war material from the allied did exceed the Axis production by 10:1 in many cases. For example at the beginning of the war, it took 3 years to build an aircraft carrier in the US and field it and in 1942 it was down to 12 month. The US build 17 carriers during WW2 while the Japan build 6.

 

I read that the Russian army in 1943 (with help from Land Lease and the HS) would field 10x more tanks than the German:

 

The stats below are mind boggling - 300,000 airplanes build, 86,000 tanks in WW2. Sure, the hardware is much more complex now, but somehow, we need back to getting the ability to ramp production again. If you assume that at some point China is become if an military adversary , well I am sure they could ramp to build a lot of ships and airplanes in relatively short order nd potentially could outgun the US.

 

The ones who actually do that well are the Koreans. They sort of have been able to produce tanks, artillery pieces and even ships  with relatively short lead times. They basically have sort of an assembly line approach to this, while  in the US the stuff is produced in very small serial runs.

 

The large defense contractors themselves want asset light during the roast few decades and have little real production capacity and rely on a network on contractors that do the stuff for them, while they develop the stuff, manage the supply chain and assembly and test the components. This has shown very fragile during COVID even without additional demand from any wartime engagement.

 

https://www.pbs.org/kenburns/the-war/war-production

Edited October 22, 2023 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

KAL's cartoon October 21^st 2023 :

 

 

 

[UK]

Meanwhile: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-17/hungary-calls-bulgaria-levy-on-russia-gas-transit-hostile-step-lnuhxqok#xj4y7vzkg

 

[ValueArb]

8 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Definitely true. In 1943, the production of war material from the allied did exceed the Axis production by 10:1 in many cases. For example at the beginning of the war, it took 3 years to build an aircraft carrier in the US and field it and in 1942 it was down to 12 month. The US build 17 carriers during WW2 while the Japan build 6.

 

I read that the Russian army in 1943 (with help from Land Lease and the HS) would field 10x more tanks than the German:

 

The stats below are mind boggling - 300,000 airplanes build, 86,000 tanks in WW2. Sure, the hardware is much more complex now, but somehow, we need back to getting the ability to ramp production again. If you assume that at some point China is become if an military adversary , well I am sure they could ramp to build a lot of ships and airplanes in relatively short order nd potentially could outgun the US.

 

The ones who actually do that well are the Koreans. They sort of have been able to produce tanks, artillery pieces and even ships  with relatively short lead times. They basically have sort of an assembly line approach to this, while  in the US the stuff is produced in very small serial runs.

 

The large defense contractors themselves want asset light during the roast few decades and have little real production capacity and rely on a network on contractors that do the stuff for them, while they develop the stuff, manage the supply chain and assembly and test the components. This has shown very fragile during COVID even without additional demand from any wartime engagement.

 

https://www.pbs.org/kenburns/the-war/war-production

The US actually built 117 carriers during WW2 vs Japan 19 carriers if you include “jeep” carriers.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aircraft_carrier_operations_during_World_War_II

[Xerxes]

pre-1941:

6 aircraft carriers (Wasp, Hornet, Enterprise, Lexington, Saratoga + Yorktown).

three were based in the Pacific and three were based in the Atlantic. I know their names by heart, but slowly forget how they met their end. 

USS Lexington would be Coral Sea, and USS Yorktown would be Midway. The rest I remember no longer.

 

by 1945, there ~30 Essex-class, ~25 Independence-class + 70+ escort carriers

[NoCalledStrikes]

Thanks Xerxes. In WW2, my dad was transported to his assignment from San Francisco to New Guinea on the Attu, an escort class carrier.  I had never heard of such small aircraft carriers prior to reading his papers.  Apparently, they were used primarily for transporting aircraft and supplies as well as sailors.  

 

According to Wikipedia, the Attu launched in May 1944, commissioned in June 1944, decommissioned in June 1946, and sold for scrapping in January 1947.  

Edited October 22, 2023 by NoCalledStrikes

[Xerxes]

4 hours ago, NoCalledStrikes said:

Thanks Xerxes. In WW2, my dad was transported to his assignment from San Francisco to New Guinea on the Attu, an escort class carrier.  I had never heard of such small aircraft carriers prior to reading his papers.  Apparently, they were used primarily for transporting aircraft and supplies as well as sailors.  

 

According to Wikipedia, the Attu launched in May 1944, commissioned in June 1944, decommissioned in June 1946, and sold for scrapping in January 1947.  

Cheers !

U.S.S Attu much like most of those +70 escort carriers that survived were literally un-made few years after being commissioned. Think of all that supply glut of metal hitting the market post-WW2. 
 

J. Powell would have been right if he was serving in the late 40s !! The inflation was “transitory”

 

Interestingly, there was one escort carrier (the only one ever) that was shelled and sank by a battleship. From the history books. 
 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Gambier_Bay

—-

 

Funny enough it was ultimately NOT the Japanese that dawned the age of aircraft carrier nor the Americans who perfected it.
 

It was actually the British who used aircraft carriers against the Italian naval assets sitting in their port in the Mediterranean in 1940 and scored. Not many folks took notice except for Yamamoto. 
 

Fast forward to today, we see a proliferation of drones. I think if we look back while we might see Ukraine as the east European theatre that really pushed the envelope on unmanned drones and put it on our TV screen, it was I think truly discovered during the 2020 Azerbaijani-Armenian war, with the former decimating the enemy and rewriting military handbooks  as it went. But there was no Yamamoto watching that conflict. 
 

Russia did not notice nor did Ukraine, at that moment. Russia was blinded by its gigantic legacy military-industrial complex and all its vested interest and all of its inertia. And Ukraine was not thinking the unthinkable yet.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 23, 2023 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

9 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Fast forward to today, we see a proliferation of drones. I think if we look back while we might see Ukraine as the east European theatre that really pushed the envelope on unmanned drones and put it on our TV screen, it was I think truly discovered during the 2020 Azerbaijani-Armenian war

Yes the Azerbajiani/ Armenian conflict showed the impact of drones for the first time and I think since then, drone countermeasure and small drone development has really picked up. Ukraine has showed it much more, since it is a much larger conflict and very much the center of attention unlike the A-A conflict.

 

From what we know China is also very strong in small drone development and they have a large industrial base of a consumer drone industry to draw from.

Edited October 23, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Yes the Azerbajiani/ Armenian conflict showed the impact of drones for the first time and I think since then, drone countermeasure and small drone development has really picked up. Ukraine has showed it much more, since it is a much larger conflict and very much the center of attention unlike the A-A conflict.

 

From what we know China is also very strong in small drone development and they have a large industrial base of a consumer drone industry to draw from.

But it is not just capacity and tech capability. It is needs to be part of their (I.e. PLA) military doctrine.
 

And be sure that you will have an incumbent military industrial complex that will be protecting its “turf” and tell you that “no no. You got this all wrong. The future war will be like this … “

 

often times, desperation will be source of military innovation. And again I don’t mean the technology in of itself, rather how it is used.  
 

To my knowledge PLA has not fought in any wars since the mid-80s. They updated their peasant army’ military doctrine with some “Powell” update in the early 90s. That is about it. No real conflict 

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-24/finland-recovers-ship-anchor-at-baltic-pipeline-damage-site?srnd=premium-europe&leadSource=uverify wall

[Spekulatius]

If you think you have a bad day, watch this:

 

[shhughes1116]

On 10/22/2023 at 6:14 PM, Xerxes said:

pre-1941:

6 aircraft carriers (Wasp, Hornet, Enterprise, Lexington, Saratoga + Yorktown).

three were based in the Pacific and three were based in the Atlantic. I know their names by heart, but slowly forget how they met their end. 

USS Lexington would be Coral Sea, and USS Yorktown would be Midway. The rest I remember no longer.

 

by 1945, there ~30 Essex-class, ~25 Independence-class + 70+ escort carriers

Don’t forget the USS Ranger.

[ValueArb]

10 minutes ago, shhughes1116 said:

Don’t forget the USS Ranger.

 

It's crazy that such tiny carrier at 15,000 tons could carry as many planes as the Lexington and a crew of over 2,000.

[shhughes1116]

24 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

It's crazy that such tiny carrier at 15,000 tons could carry as many planes as the Lexington and a crew of over 2,000.

The Lexington and Saratoga keels were started as battlexruisers and then converted to carriers so their layout was not conducive for a large air wing.  The Ranger was intentionly built as a carrier - the first purpose built carrier for the US - so it had the right layout for a larger air wing.  The British had the same issue with the Courageous class - originally laid down as battlexruisers so the layout was’t conducive for a large air wing.  

[Xerxes]

20 hours ago, shhughes1116 said:

Don’t forget the USS Ranger.

I am/was not familiar with that name. Not sure why it was not part of the famed “six” that I had back of my mind. 
 

[changegonnacome]

https://www.thefp.com/p/israel-and-america-have-no-choice-but-to-act

 

Interesting read - its really a time for American diplomacy and coalition building to be at the top of its game.....the world has become a much more complicated place

[ValueArb]

5 hours ago, Xerxes said:

I am/was not familiar with that name. Not sure why it was not part of the famed “six” that I had back of my mind. 
 

 

Same myself, apparently because the famous aircraft carrier battles were in the Pacific. I was surprised to find out she was at Casablanca, and attacked shipping in Norwegian waters. Never knew.

[Xerxes]

15 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

Same myself, apparently because the famous aircraft carrier battles were in the Pacific. I was surprised to find out she was at Casablanca, and attacked shipping in Norwegian waters. Never knew.

Either that, or Chuck Norris was the captain of USS Ranger. And he refused to fight easy enemies. 

[John Hjorth]

Tass News Agency Press Release [October 30^th 2023] : Nothing can justify bombardments of civilians in <fill in the blanks your self> — Putin.

 

Isen't this person just something very special and truly outstanding - here, hardly holding back tears.

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Tass News Agency Press Release [October 30^th 2023] : Nothing can justify bombardments of civilians in <fill in the blanks your self> — Putin.

 

Isen't this person just something very special and truly outstanding - here, hardly holding back tears.

What a humanitarian!  Is he talking about Russian bombardment of Ukraine?

[Spekulatius]

36 minutes ago, Dinar said:

What a humanitarian!  Is he talking about Russian bombardment of Ukraine?

He is jealous of Israel's special operation and the fact that they are actually hitting their targets.

[formthirteen]

3 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Isen't this person just something very special and truly outstanding - here, hardly holding back tears.

 

 

We just have to ”unplug the bananas” from our ears to hear what he's really saying.

 

Spoiler

 

Edited October 31, 2023 by formthirteen

[changegonnacome]

Havent been following the situation in Ukraine closely for the last couple of months.

 

As we head for winter in Europe - what is the general take on the Ukrainian counter-offensive.....broadly it seems clear there has been very very little territorial advancement around recapturing lands that Russia has annexed.

 

Article below however talks about a more subtle take which is underlying strategic victoires that bode well for the future:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/20/ukraine-crimea-black-sea-counteroffensive-russia-fleet-navy-drones-war/

 

My only quibble with the above article which makes me think things arent going quite so well is when the author leans on the victories against the black sea fleet as signs of Ukraine's progress.......this is not a naval war.....its very much a land war.....Ukraine can do what it wishes to the black sea fleet it will have little to no bearing on taking back the Donbas for example.

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

Havent been following the situation in Ukraine closely for the last couple of months.

 

As we head for winter in Europe - what is the general take on the Ukrainian counter-offensive.....broadly it seems clear there has been very very little territorial advancement around recapturing lands that Russia has annexed.

 

Article below however talks about a more subtle take which is underlying strategic victoires that bode well for the future:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/20/ukraine-crimea-black-sea-counteroffensive-russia-fleet-navy-drones-war/

 

My only quibble with the above article which makes me think things arent going quite so well is when the author leans on the victories against the black sea fleet as signs of Ukraine's progress.......this is not a naval war.....its very much a land war.....Ukraine can do what it wishes to the black sea fleet it will have little to no bearing on taking back the Donbas for example.

The black see is a side theater. Russia tries to choke off Ukraine from sea access, so it is important in a sense that they don't succeed.

 

On the counteroffensive, it seems like Ukraine does very little lately and Russia is burning tremendous amount of material and manpower to take the Avdiivka salient. The videos that come from there are really something to check out (most NSFW).

 

I think at some point things on the Ukrainian attack are going to pick up again, but right now, it seems relatively quiet.