Russia-Ukrainian War

[John Hjorth]

10 hours ago, Viking said:

The simplest answer is usually the best. It is obvious Putin is a mole for the West. He was likely recruited in St. Petersburg before his political career got going. He single-handedly has:

• revitalized NATO
• convinced Finland and Sweden to join NATO, when neither country wanted to before
• convinced all countries in Europe neighbouring Russia to quickly and heavily re-arm
• severed decades old economic linkages with Germany
• convinced Germany to re-arm
• set the Russian economy back a generation
• permanently lowered the living standards of current and future generations of Russian kids
• killed tens of thousands of young Russian men; turning what was already a demographic problem into a nightmare
• convinced tens of thousands of Russians to leave their country (lots of whom are educated)
• accelerated by decades the decline of the Russian state
• economically, made Russia a vassal state of China

Simply amazing what he has accomplished in less than 18 months. And i don’t think he is close to being done.

 

The ramifications for Russia in the future will become severe for its population, allmost beyond imagination, a melting icecube, gradually disintegrating and collapsing into a hellhole where noboday wants to stay or live, untill a material change in tracjectory for the future is set, based on demands for such changes by the incumbent population [by demands for societal reforms, uproar, revolution, coup d'état, civil war etc.]

 

Statista [July 12^th 2023] : Male and female population in Russia as of January 1, 2022, by age group (in millions)

 

 

I don't think I have to explain anything to anyone a member here CoBF about how to interpret these statistics, related to @Vikings comments above, combined with thinking about what has happened to the graph since January 1^st 2022.

 

A turnaround, that is so far from even beginning to look like a turnaround, long way ahead just to begin looking like a turnaround, after which it actually has to become turnaround, that actually turns.

Edited July 12, 2023 by John Hjorth

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

One quibble with your list - the above is a complete and utter DISASTER for US foreign policy over the long pull for the only strategic competition that truly MATTERS this century - USA vs China

 

Pairing up Russia so completely - a resource and energy rich country to your greatest rival who's achilles heel is their lack of energy & resources...does that sound like a good outcome?....it will prove to be a deep deep strategic blunder for US foreign policy.......separating Russia from China should have been aim of the game....not driving Russia into the arms of China.

First you are assuming that separation was ever possible. Dictatorships always cling together for mutual self protection.

 

Second, China always had and will have access to Russian resources. Maybe they build more pipelines but again that was inevitable. 

[Xerxes]

 

One can make a list of how ridiculous Sir Winston Churchill career was up to the eve of Second World War. Including the Dardanelles expedition disaster, his feud with Lord Fisher etc. 

 

One can make a list of how awesome Putin achievement was in pulling Russia out of the Yelstinfestation, taming down the oligarchy and the jolly years of prosperity when he had the tailwind of hydrocarbon (you may think it was the price of barrel, more important was production increase)if a snapshot was taken in 2007. 
 

Like the compounded growth rate of a stock that highly sensitive on entry and exit point, the geopolitical cycles are also sensitive to when one take that snapshot and makes the list. 

 

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Yep great list @Viking....if your hinting that this is a great outcome for the US from a global strategic competition point of view........I kind of agree with wholeheartedly....to it I would add making the EU energy dependent on the USA for LNG over time too ensuring their continued role as a client state of the US.........where we differ of course........is that a whole Country (Ukraine) has been be tossed on the fire to achieve your list of US 'wins' & where I've argued that this conflict was avoidable with just tiny bit more accommodation to Russia's security concerns*..... the above US strategic aims in the region (Russia containment/outright hostility).......has now come at cost of ten of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian young men dead............and millions upon millions of Ukrainian refugee families strewn across Europe.

 

* at its core however if you believe Putin the imperialist story you believe this conflict was unavoidable......if unavoidable of course you think of only the good things that have come out of it from a US strategic point of view and that's understandable....its more uncomfortable to do what I've done.......which is to ask was their a third way where the West could have handled the Ukraine portfolio with a degree more humility & caution to the complexity of a small country (Ukraine) neighbouring a large powerful country like Russia. The problem with the zealots in the State Department in every US nation building exercise I've ever studied that's ended exactly like the situation we have in Ukraine....is a complete lack of understanding of history and complete inability once words like 'freedom' 'democracy' 'liberty' are thrown around in regards to a nation.... to come to a pragmatic US foreign policy strategy that might achieve both US security aims in a region but also optimize to what practically work out best for the people of that nation.

 

Yeah, IDK - perhaps the correct question is What do the Europeans feel about all this? Do they feel threatened by Russian's actions?  Take the USA completely out of it.  What does Europe want? Haven't the Europeans accommodated Russia for years, trying to be a good neighbor? and then this?

 

The US is just the ally here. Our borders aren't threatened.

Edited July 12, 2023 by cubsfan

[John Hjorth]

2 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

 

One can make a list of how ridiculous Sir Winston Churchill career was up to the eve of Second World War. Including the Dardanelles expedition disaster, his feud with Lord Fisher etc. 

 

One can make a list of how awesome Putin achievement was in pulling Russia out of the Yelstinfestation, taming down the oligarchy and the jolly years of prosperity when he had the tailwind of hydrocarbon (you may think it was the price of barrel, more important was production increase)if a snapshot was taken in 2007. 
 

Like the compounded growth rate of a stock that highly sensitive on entry and exit point, the geopolitical cycles are also sensitive to when one take that snapshot and makes the list. 

 

 

So what, @Xerxes ? Like talking about running what into the ground? Putin is 71 years old. The stock that has already killed him has the ticker $RUSSIA.

[Xerxes]

2 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

So what, @Xerxes ? Like talking about running what into the ground? Putin is 71 years old. The stock that has already killed him has the ticker $RUSSIA.

ehhhh I thought the ticker was $USSR

 

and I also thought several years ago that Zelensky was a comedian who was going to be eaten alive. And I don’t think i was in the minority. 

 

we don’t know what will happen. Everything we say is just an aggregate of our historical biases. 
 

how many people here keep contrasting Bakhmut with the battle of Verdun and then to Stalingrad. It was neither. It was the battle of Bakhmut. 

[changegonnacome]

58 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

First you are assuming that separation was ever possible. Dictatorships always cling together for mutual self protection.

 

Second, China always had and will have access to Russian resources. Maybe they build more pipelines but again that was inevitable. 

 

The separation was going quite well up until recently.....so much so that China had its belt and road initiative to desperately try to secure resources from the middle east and Africa. China certainly didnt think it was inevitable that Russia would be its energy bitch?

 

Put it this way - its certainly possible to have Russia and China less connected at the hip than they are now. Isolating Russia economically such that its whole economic existence is tied to China is dumb beyond imagination and almost ensures China's regionally dominance in Asia over time......cause you basically handed over a BIG gas station which is Russia to China....such that naval blockade of China in the future from a energy standpoint will cease to matter because all their energy is coming over pipelines across Siberia and Mongolia.....its a disastrous outcome over time from a strategic standpoint. It just is.

 

A crippled, wounded vasal state Russia is actually what Chinese wet dreams are made of..........its like handing over the permian basin to your greatest enemy......its so dumb it beggars belief. Honestly there's no good way to spin it.

[changegonnacome]

42 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Yeah, IDK - perhaps the correct question is What do the Europeans feel about all this? Do they feel threatened by Russian's actions?  Take the USA completely out of it.  What does Europe want? Haven't the Europeans accommodated Russia for years, trying to be a good neighbor? and then this?

 

The US is just the ally here. Our borders aren't threatened.

 

Read Macron's recent statements on European or more precisely EU security and military capability and what he calls the 'strategic' independence thats required and would bring....subtext is that Europe can see the stupdity of American foreign policy in Ukraine......in the backrooms of Europe this Ukrainian conflict and the impact its had on Europe is very much viewed as another American foreign policy disaster folly......where the Ukranian people are the direct collateral damage and the European economy is too. Put simply Ukraine is Afghanistan 2.0.

 

As I've said before idealism (democracy & freedom) is something that can get applied in other peoples neighborhoods (Vietnam/Afghanistan/Ukraine/Iraq) and it leads to disastrous consequences almost without exception. The record here is just abysmal and not a single person can argue with America's attempts at nation building overseas they are a solid F MINUS. The countries subject to US interference/help invariably get wrecked.

 

What Macron is getting at is in his recent comments.....is a Europe that has the military wherewithal to be a counter balance to US counter productive interference that usually occurs in far flung places......but in the case of Ukraine US nation building/interference blew up in Europe's face this time precisely because Europe is too junior a partner to US military capability (but lets be clear the US likes that......the US wants a vasal state Europe.....one dependent on US energy versus Russia). Trump was dead wrong to demand more NATO spend by partners........you want your strategic military partners in a far flung region to be a little weak such that you can bully them around to do what you want.

 

Macron is completely spot on in his recent comments.......the EU needs it own military/security capability......and to not let the US play its nation building/strategic games with enemies on the European continent again..

Edited July 12, 2023 by changegonnacome

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Read Macron's recent statements on European or more precisely EU security and military capability and what he calls the 'strategic' independence thats required and would bring....subtext is that Europe can see the stupdity of American foreign policy in Ukraine......in the backrooms of Europe this Ukrainian conflict and the impact its had on Europe is very much viewed as another American foreign policy disaster folly......where the Ukranian people are the direct collateral damage and the European economy is too. 

 

As I've said before idealism (democracy & freedom) is something that can get applied in other peoples neighborhoods (Vietnam/Afghanistan/Ukraine/Iraq) and it leads to disastrous consequences almost without exception. The record here is just abysmal and not a single person can argue with America's attempts at nation building overseas they are a solid F MINUS. What Macron is getting at is in his recent comments.....is a Europe that has the military wherewitdawl to be a counter balance to US counter productive interference that usually occurs in far flung places......but in the case of Ukraine US nation building/interference blew up in Europe's face this time precisily because Europe is too junior a partner to US military capabilty (but lets be clear the US likes that......the US wants a vasal state Europe.....one dependent on US energy versus Russia). 

 

Macron is completely spot on in his recent comments.......the EU needs it own military/security capability......and to not let the US play its nation building/strategic games with enemies on the European continent again..

 

Huh? Macron?

 

Macron and Merkel are why Europe is in this predicament. They totally blew this by not standing up to Putin. Macron is covering his ass. IMHO.

The USA does NOT run Europe. Nor should we. The Europeans run their own show, as they should. They created this mess - the US is here to help.

 

Western Europe has always been dependent on US military might, but they set their own foreign policy.

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

... we don’t know what will happen. ...

 

@Xerxes,

 

You simply don't discuss in this topic, as if you have some skin in this game [, which is to you as a Canadian citizen as a fact at the most by now indirect and immaterial]. To me, the only thing to change this attitude of yours and wake you up would be an agression from the North from Russia, over the North Pole.

 

I'm not going to spend time to comment on similar posts from you in this topic going forward. I'll leave it here.

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

the US is here to help.

Reminds me of this:

 

 

I’m sorry it’s ultimately naive to believe such things. Nations have interests not friends.

 

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

Western Europe has always been dependent on US military might, but they set their own foreign policy.

That statement is an oxymoron.

 

And exactly what Macron is getting at in recent statements…..setting your own foreign policy is completely dependent on having your own independent robust military capability. Macron is lamenting the EU’s lack of military muscle and as such he knows that Europe will remain a price ‘taker’ of US foreign policy…..until such a time as it does have something akin to a common military capability crudely a United States of Europe Army/navy/Air Force.

 

 

Edited July 12, 2023 by changegonnacome

[Ulti]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

Macron and Merkel are why Europe is in this predicament. They totally blew this by not standing up to Putin. Macron is covering his ass. IMHO.

Agree....Just a bunch of greedy ass politicians (along with Schroder) who put themselves above their people..

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/02/germany-dependence-russian-energy-gas-oil-nord-stream

 

Is it a fallacy to believe that you can change authoritarian regimes with trade ?

Hasn't worked out too well with Russia and China....

[Xerxes]

36 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@Xerxes,

 

You simply don't discuss in this topic, as if you have some skin in this game [, which is to you as a Canadian citizen as a fact at the most by now indirect and immaterial]. To me, the only thing to change this attitude of yours and wake you up would be an agression from the North from Russia, over the North Pole.

 

I'm not going to spend time to comment on similar posts from you in this topic going forward. I'll leave it here.

John 

I was born in Iran during the Soviet time. And was on the receiving end of Iraqi invasion and Scud missiles when lived in Tehran. I am more aware than most people on this thread about living life during war. I live it for 8 years. Wasn’t as bad as being on a frontline city like Khoramshahr. 
 

And historically am well aware of Russian aggression and expansionist policy toward Iran and Europe. I should say that I trust Kremlin even less than the fools in DC when it to foreign policy. 
 

That said, I don’t believe I (myself) have any special ability to predict the future just because I like history. Or taking a snapshot of today as things are and making CAGR projections like it is some sort of investment. 
 

Hence the comment: “we don’t know what will happen”. There has been simply too many twist and turns.  

[John Hjorth]

8 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

John 

I was born in Iran during the Soviet time. And was on the receiving end of Iraqi invasion and Scud missiles when lived in Tehran. I am more aware than most people on this thread about living life during war. I live it for 8 years. Wasn’t as bad as being on a frontline city like Khoramshahr. 
 

And historically am well aware of Russian aggression and expansionist policy toward Iran and Europe. I should say that I trust Kremlin even less than the fools in DC when it to foreign policy. 
 

That said, I don’t believe I (myself) have any special ability to predict the future just because I like history. Or taking a snapshot of today as things are and making CAGR projections like it is some sort of investment. 
 

Hence the comment: “we don’t know what will happen”. There has been simply too many twist and turns.  

 

 

@Xerxes,

 

Nothing you posted above was about your in casu skin in the game. Please let it go, as I will from here.

[cubsfan]

32 minutes ago, Ulti said:

Agree....Just a bunch of greedy ass politicians (along with Schroder) who put themselves above their people..

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/02/germany-dependence-russian-energy-gas-oil-nord-stream

 

Is it a fallacy to believe that you can change authoritarian regimes with trade ?

Hasn't worked out too well with Russia and China....

 

Precisely.  The Merkel/Macron/Obama view - we can change the bad guy to a good guy by continuing to extend magnanimity to tyrant. Yeah, my speeches will bring him around...

 

The problem with Macron is - he thinks he's the second coming of Obama. 

 

And when the situation backfires on him - he blames the US!  You can't make this shit up.

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

I’m sorry it’s ultimately naive to believe such things. Nations have interests not friends.

 

I would never argue with this. You're completely right. The US is not a charity - nor are the allies.

And of course, we have common interests - and therefore declare to be allies.

 

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

And exactly what Macron is getting at in recent statements…..setting your own foreign policy is completely dependent on having your own independent robust military capability. Macron is lamenting the EU’s lack of military muscle and as such he knows that Europe will remain a price ‘taker’ of US foreign policy…..until such a time as it does have something akin to a common military capability crudely a United States of Europe Army/navy/Air Force.

 

So look - what Macron is saying is fine. Who is stopping him from funding NATO or the other NATO members?  Who is stopping them from devoting major portions of their GDP to the defense of Europe, whether it be through NATO or their own armed forces?  The US? No way.

 

The Failure of Europe in this situation is the failure of Germany and France to LEAD Europe - period.  The leaders of France & Germany look like fools - but of course, they are going deflect the blame for this disaster to someone OTHER than themselves. They have always been pacifists. Now they're paying the price.

 

They have always owned their own foreign policy, their own armed forces - and this happen on their watch. 

 

Now they shit bricks and look to save their own asses.

[Spekulatius]

Germany has turned the page on Merkel, I can say that much. Although, there are still people in Germany that think they can bury the head in the sand and this will all blow over without doing anything. There are fewer of them fortunately, I think.

 

[Ulti]

The same greedy bullshit happens in all countries including the good old USA

https://www.cnn.com/2013/03/19/business/iraq-war-contractors/index.html

article is a rehash of a financial times investigation.

[changegonnacome]

10 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Germany has turned the page on Merkel, I can say that much. Although, there are still people in Germany that think they can bury the head in the sand and this will all blow over without doing anything. There are fewer of them fortunately, I think.

 

Yeah agree - i think Germany's time has come.......time to leave its ugly past behind.........nobody in the German administration should feel personal shame or embarrassment for the past.....there should be a collective remembrance

of the dangers of totalitarianism or dictatorships......but it shouldn't cloud the fact that Germany to my points above (along with France) need to develop an independent military muscle which befits their size and that can be a counterweight to the US's strategic aims in both Europe and in Asia......as U2/bono says.....the US and Europe....can be....ONE, but not the same.

 

Macron, for all his failings domestically in France, has an excellent read and instinct on international relations.........you can see his recent trip to China recently......as an independent flexing of France/the EU's strategic economic muscle.......what its missing currently a quirk of history........is a German military machine commensurate with its economic machine. In this regard Germany is indeed finally stepping up and France will be sure to follow. 

 

Its a good thing......I think a multipolar world dominated by the USA and China but with a resurgent military EU moderating the excesses of each might be how we avoid WW3 in my lifetime.

[cubsfan]

43 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Germany has turned the page on Merkel, I can say that much. Although, there are still people in Germany that think they can bury the head in the sand and this will all blow over without doing anything. There are fewer of them fortunately, I think.

 

 

Great chart. And good for Germany. I'm pretty stunned by France. Macron is a disaster for France.

Unfortunately, I'm quite biased since my wife is French and her whole family still lives in France.

 

Macron is a pacifist and weak, which is too bad for France.

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Great chart. And good for Germany. I'm pretty stunned by France. Macron is a disaster for France.

Unfortunately, I'm quite biased since my wife is French and her whole family still lives in France.

 

Macron is a pacifist and weak, which is too bad for France.

I think these are numbers for 2022 only and recently France has delivered  their light AMX tank and other material recently. Even Italy (which has been leaning pro Russian somewhat ) has recently started  to deliver more aid to Ukraine.

 

Macron has received quite a bit of ridicule for his diplomatic ventures in Europe. 

[Dinar]

Let's keep in mind that nobody owns Ukraine anything.  Zelensky's ungratefulness is not helping by the way.  It was the job of the Ukrainian government to be ready for Russian invasion, not the job of Macron, Merkel, Meloni, et all to provide for Ukrainian defense.  

 

 

[cubsfan]

Just now, Dinar said:

Let's keep in mind that nobody owns Ukraine anything.  Zelensky's ungratefulness is not helping by the way.  It was the job of the Ukrainian government to be ready for Russian invasion, not the job of Macron, Merkel, Meloni, et all to provide for Ukrainian defense.  

 

 

Yes, that’s completely true. But in the case that European countries don’t trust Putin - what is your alternative?

 

Do you roll the dice and let him take the Baltic States, etc?

[Dinar]

21 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Yes, that’s completely true. But in the case that European countries don’t trust Putin - what is your alternative?

 

Do you roll the dice and let him take the Baltic States, etc?

Aren't the Baltic countries part of Nato?  So then obviously the mutual defense treaty applies.   I don't understand why American taxpayers ought to bail out incompetence and graft of the Ukrainian government.  

[Dinar]

https://www.ft.com/content/dc658252-6acd-44fc-8e0c-51a284009762