Russia-Ukrainian War

[james22]

Coup?

 

 

[james22]

 

[james22]

 

[cubsfan]

27 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

It’s artillery, economy & the number of male bodies you can put through the meat grinder here that matters most.

 

Population - Russia has Ukraine beat what 5 to 1 on the population piece and I don’t see a commitment where ‘we’ would be sending any of our young men to die.

 

Artillery - Russia is the master of its own destiny here….Ukraine not so much….id rather be Russia here.

 

Economy - like it or not Russia has a self-sustaining economy with petro dollars….Ukraine is on life support & completely reliant on the kindness of strangers.

 

I hate what Russia has done - but you ask me what position I’d like to be in across the above criteria - you would ask for the Russian set of cards every day of the week. 

 

Coming around here.... not a very good start for the offensive.

 

Certainly don't seem to be getting much news on the offensive, which might be par for the course with the corrupt media hiding bad news...

[james22]

Prigozhin, whose Wagner troops have pulled back from Bakhmut, also attacked Russia’s current war efforts in the face of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

 

Directly contradicting Putin’s claims that Moscow has fended off Kyiv’s counterattack, Prigozhin also accused the Russian military leadership of lying to the public about the scale of its losses and setbacks in Ukraine.

 

“The Russian army is retreating in all directions and shedding a lot of blood … What they tell us is the deepest deception.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/23/wagner-chief-accuses-russias-military-of-attack-and-says-evil-leadership-must-be-stopped

[John Hjorth]

What is it with CoBF members posting in this topic, - then deleting their posts - "unfortunately" after getting some posts quoted by other CoBF members before deleting them?

[james22]

 

[cubsfan]

@james22 - thanks for the clips.

 

"The Fog of War" in action

[changegonnacome]

43 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Certainly don't seem to be getting much news on the offensive, which might be par for the course with the corrupt media hiding bad news...

 

The absense of news is a clue to how things are going. Omission is how our media filters information. Its certainly less horrible than the outright nonsense seen in other countries like Russia - we are lucky in that 'our' press is indeed the most free but its not immune to shaping the news around narratives/audiences/advertisers......Ukraine struggling to make headway with the offensive, after all our support and rhetoric, is counter to the narrative, fails to sell papers/clicks which loses you advertisers.

 

Our media aren't scumbags - but if/when things start going badly for the Ukrainians I would expect that we wouldn't hear about contemporaneously & in 'real-time' but rather a little after the fact and only when its hard to ignore. I would expect a little exaggeration too on Ukrainian successes. I think when you put that filter on things we are lucky to have a press/media as good as we do. 

[Viking]

25 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

The absense of news is a clue to how things are going. Omission is how our media filters information. Its certainly less horrible than the outright nonsense seen in other countries like Russia - we are lucky in that 'our' press is indeed the most free but its not immune to shaping the news around narratives/audiences/advertisers......Ukraine struggling to make headway with the offensive, after all our support and rhetoric, is counter to the narrative, fails to sell papers/clicks which loses you advertisers.

 

Our media aren't scumbags - but if/when things start going badly for the Ukrainians I would expect that we wouldn't hear about contemporaneously & in 'real-time' but rather a little after the fact and only when its hard to ignore. I would expect a little exaggeration too on Ukrainian successes. I think when you put that filter on things we are lucky to have a press/media as good as we do. 

@changegonnacome  Sorry, i am as dumb as a stump. Who is ‘our media’ you are referencing? Can you please list exactly who it is you are talking about?

 

And how, exactly, do they coordinate their news stories, especially breaking news?
 

Do they all go to some school where they are taught to do what you suggest? Or is there some secret book that lays everything out?

 

 

Edited June 23, 2023 by Viking

[changegonnacome]

Come on now your being a bit pendantic - 'our' news of course is the big boys with nice big budgets & audiences.... MSNC,CNN, ABC, CBS, Fox, BBC and list mainly TV news as this is the news that people consume reallly in the main....lets call it video news.

 

Of course the internet has changed the game so to speak - for those who want to dive deeper on things.......but like 98% of people dont.......I'm sure your in the 2% @Viking as are lots of people in this thread/board........we are a little cult of news junkies, that are curious, that are engaged. The 2% vote in elections....but so do the other 98% and they shape elections/public policy......I should have been clearer in my post.....I was thinking about how the average person vaguely engaged on the subject is presented information & indeed what their impression might be of how things are going & that is shaped. Folks on here go further and deeper than that......I would put you + the common posters here in perhaps the top 0.1% of folks engaged on things......and I'm guessing nobody starts & stops with the 6 minute segment on Ukraine on CBS in the evening.....but let me tell you 99% of people do.........CBS/ABC is the NEWS for lots and lots of people. That was point.

 

 

[Viking]

How do they all coordinate reporting not just the what (event) but also the message? All at the same time? Australia, Canada, Denmark, New Zealand, USA, France, Japan, Germany… and 20 or 30 more counties? Are they really that smart?
 

You lump them all together (‘our media’) and that i do not understand. 

Edited June 23, 2023 by Viking

[cubsfan]

19 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Come on now your being a bit pendantic - 'our' news of course is the big boys with nice big budgets & audiences.... MSNC,CNN, ABC, CBS, Fox, BBC and list mainly TV news as this is the news that people consume reallly in the main....lets call it video news.

 

Of course the internet has changed the game so to speak - for those who want to dive deeper on things.......but like 98% of people dont.......I'm sure your in the 2% @Viking as are lots of people in this thread/board........we are a little cult of news junkies, that are curious, that are engaged. The 2% vote in elections....but so do the other 98% and they shape elections/public policy......I should have been clearer in my post.....I was thinking about how the average person vaguely engaged on the subject is presented information & indeed what their impression might be of how things are going & that is shaped. Folks on here go further and deeper than that......I would put you + the common posters here in perhaps the top 0.1% of folks engaged on things......and I'm guessing nobody starts & stops with the 6 minute segment on Ukraine on CBS in the evening.....but let me tell you 99% of people do.........CBS/ABC is the NEWS for lots and lots of people. That was point.

 

 

Most of these guys went to the same schools - liberal bastions where they get brainwashed- Columbia, Norhwestern, Berkeley..

 

A masters in journalism is about as useless as you can get. All you need to understand is how to write and how to tell a story. Great journalists are story tellers..

 

The state of journalism is in USA has changed from fact telling to advocacy. It’s pathetic. Yeah the press/media is “free press” , but it’s incredibly dishonest unfortunately.

[backtothebeach]

11 minutes ago, Viking said:

How do they all coordinate reporting not just the what (event) but also the message? All at the same time? Australia, Canada, Denmark, New Zealand, USA, France, Japan, Germany… and 20 or 30 more counties? Are they really that smart?
 

You lump them all together (‘our media’) and that i do not understand. 

Because they all use the same sources, Reuters and AP, and are more inclined to present information (propaganda) from Ukrainian sources as fact than from Russian sources?

[james22]

Russian state news has just confirmed that Wagner is attempting a coup d'état in Russia.

 

Russian sources say that the Russian 45th Brigade (VDV/paratroopers) have refused orders to deploy against Wagner. It's important to note that Russian soldiers generally respect Prigozhin and Wagner more than their own senior commanders whom they see as cowardly and corrupt.

 

More and more Russian generals are appealing to Wagner to stop the coup attempt. Here, the 1st deputy head of the GRU (military intelligence), General Alekseev says that the Russian military neither attacked nor plans to use force against Wagner and begs them to stop.

 

The Russian military is deploying troops, including special forces in Moscow and barricading the center of the city as it prepares for what looks more and more like a coup.

 

Russian general Surovikin says that the Russian Ministry of Defense ordered him to return from the front and he appeals to Wagner to obey Putin's orders and to stop their armed convoys. He says that Wagner fighters are comrades in arms and that what they're doing helps the enemy.

 

Russian sources report that 2 Wagner military convoys that are each dozens of kilometers long are heading into Rostov from Russian-occupied Ukraine (Donetsk). Russian border guards are letting them through even though the border was ordered closed.

 

Turmoil in Russia: -some Russian TV channels have shown Prigozhin's anti-MoD speech. -state of emergency in Rostov-on-Don (possibly Moscow) with heavy military/MVD presence; checkpoints on road to Moscow. -Border between Rostov region and Russian-occupied Donetsk has been closed.

 

There are reports (not yet officially confirmed) that Moscow is being put into a high state of emergency, known as plan "Fortress." This would be done when there is a serious security threat such as violent riots, terrorism, or a coup attempt.

 

Prigozhin accuses Russian defense minister Shoigu of coming to Rostov-on-Don to oversee a military operation that was supposed to destroy PMC Wagner and that the helicopter pilots and artillerymen who were involved were kept in the dark about the real target of the operation.

 

Prigozhin says that 25,000 of his men are on a mission to take on the Russian Ministry of Defense and to restore justice, but says this is not a military coup and the actions of Wagner will not affect Russian troops. He says anyone can join them on their justice crusade.

 

Prigozhin has just announced that after the attacks on his men by the Ministry of Defence, Wagner will clean house, punishing those responsible. He says they will kill anyone that gets in their way and restore justice to the army and all of Russia.

 

Just in: Prigozhin's channels release video, claiming rocket strikes on Wagner PMC camps. Reports of numerous casualties. Eyewitnesses suggest the attack came from the rear, implicating Russian military forces.

 

https://twitter.com/StateOfUkraine

[changegonnacome]

27 minutes ago, Viking said:

How do they all coordinate reporting not just the what (event) but also the message? All at the same time? Australia, Canada, Denmark, New Zealand, USA, France, Japan, Germany… and 20 or 30 more counties? Are they really that smart?
 

You lump them all together (‘our media’) and that i do not understand. 

 

Tribalism nationalism - but your putting words in my mouth.....i never spoke about coordination......I think we can agree that the news or lets call it 'big' news can have a tilt.......when 'we' are at war with 'them'......the news gets tilted to favor the 'we' at the end of the day we are social animals & this comes out in our news.....as Pink Floyd put it there is 'Us and Them'.....the news inevitably follows an Us & them tilt......I'm not claiming a consirpacy here....i hate that bullshit........just a simple commonly known psychological quirk of people......which finds its way into reporting....no matter how objective the attempt....when you layer on the commercial imperative....to 'please' an audience......audiences are most 'pleased' in war reporting by us and them narratives. So please dont put me in a consipracy bucket....nobody is having secret editorial calls at midnight across Japan, germany, france etc. of course not.

Edited June 23, 2023 by changegonnacome

[Spekulatius]

@cubsfan Sputnik news is hardly a creditable news source, it’s a Russian government disinformation channel.

Interesting stuff happening with Prighozin (Wagner leader). I predicted that a year from noe, Prighozin is likely not alive any more and I think things may be unraveling  quicker than I thought now 

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/23/prigozhin-charged-with-inciting-armed-revolt-after-vowing-to-stop-evil-military-leadership-a81615

 

I do think than Ukraine is taking high losses during the counteroffensive and needs to re-evaluate. Russian are taking terrible losses too, but that’s nothing new.

[Ulti]

https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/jihadi-blowback-the-wagner-groups-hidden-downside/

[james22]

Prigozhin now says that the Russian military has ordered air strikes on Wagner convoys inside Russia, but thanked Russian air force pilots for refusing to obey those orders.

In the latest update, Prigozhin says that Wagner has entered Rostov and was warmly welcomed by Russian border guards. He said that 18-year-old conscripts were deployed to stop them, but that they let Wagner pass through. He says that Wagner will not stop.

[james22]

Because so much of what happens in Russia, is elaborate state-sponsored theater meant to distract attention from actual problems, it is not completely unreasonable to suspect that the currents events may not be a real coup. Here's a possible alternative explanation.

 

According to one version of the "fake coup" theory, Russia is losing the war slowly but surely, Ukraine is poised to liberate large swathes of land, but Putin needs an internal off-ramp, a way to place the blame on anyone except himself.

 

For months, Prigozhin ruthlessly criticized the Russian military something that Putin cannot publicly do, fomenting what appears to be a conflict between Wagner & the Russian military. But, he doesn't criticize Putin, who is the one ultimately responsible for Russian losses.

 

One of the hallmarks of Putin's reign has been interfactional fighting. The country is controlled by competing clans who control and get rich off of various parts of the state budget, while Putin remains safely above the fray, making sure that no clans gets too powerful.

 

The real or fake conflict between Wagner and the Russian military gives Putin a few options, one of which is to say that Russia is facing internal turmoil and he needs to withdraw troops from Ukraine to protect Russia. That way a military retreat can be covered up.

 

In addition, any staged turmoil inside Russia can be used as an excuse to tighten control over society, by limiting Internet access for example (there are signs of this already). Tightening the screws may be necessary for Putin to remain in power in the wake of a military defeat.

 

Both Prigozhin (formerly Putin's chef) and defense minister Shoigu are close to Putin and they're not suicidal. Whether there is an actual coup taking place in Russia or Kabuki theater remains to be seen. Either way, Putin's regime is as weak as it has ever been.

[james22]

Shoigu may not be suicidal, but seems he's the fall guy if this is a fake coup.

 

[Xerxes]

Neither Shoigu nor Gerasimov are going anywhere. They are the Keitel and Jodl of Kremlin. Loyalists. 
 

Anyone remember Marshal Voroshilov (one of the original 5 marshals of Soviet Union). He led the disasterous Russian-Finland war and was still around to tell his tale. 

[Xerxes]

As far as Prigozhin is concerned he is like the Captain Rohm of the SA in the 1930s.
 

A useful idiot until his services was no longer required. 

[Spekulatius]

Looks like the Wagner coup is happening around Rostov, which is where Wagner pulled back after Bahkmut. This is also where most of the Russian command for the war is located, as well as it plays a role as a logistics hub:

I don’t think that this coup is going to work, but I think Wagner is probably not going to be a factor any more. According to some sources, this happened because Wagner was supposed to be run by the MOD rather than Prigozhin (or Mr Pringles as they call him in Reddit). The comparison with Röhm  may be befitting, although Röhm actually never recalled putsched.

Edited June 24, 2023 by Spekulatius

[james22]