Russia-Ukrainian War

[no_free_lunch]

The US will increase artillery shell production 6 fold over the next 2 years. The US is covering dual contingencies of a long war in Ukraine as well as a possible war with China.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/pentagon-increasing-production-of-155mm-artillery-shells-2023-1

[Dinar]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-western-backers-of-ukraine-worry-that-time-might-be-on-russias-side-11674969063?mod=hp_lead_pos7

[Castanza]

On 1/27/2023 at 10:55 PM, no_free_lunch said:

The US will increase artillery shell production 6 fold over the next 2 years. The US is covering dual contingencies of a long war in Ukraine as well as a possible war with China.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/pentagon-increasing-production-of-155mm-artillery-shells-2023-1

The West loves a good proxy war. Taking full advantage of the situation to make sure Russia ends up as a third world country. The West will drag this out as long as possible. 
 

Everyone knows, even if Russia manages to win “militarily” there is no chance in Hell they would ever be able to hold Ukraine. The insurgency would be untenable. Also starting to look like the Chechens might seize the opportunity for some revenge. 
 

What a bizarre conflict. You’ve got Chechens fighting for Russia and for Ukraine. Then you have the awkwardness of former US troops fighting for Ukraine working with the very Chechens they saw in conflict in Afghanistan. 

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

The West loves a good proxy war. Taking full advantage of the situation to make sure Russia ends up as a third world country. The West will drag this out as long as possible. 
 

Everyone knows, even if Russia manages to win “militarily” there is no chance in Hell they would ever be able to hold Ukraine. The insurgency would be untenable. Also starting to look like the Chechens might seize the opportunity for some revenge. 
 

What a bizarre conflict. You’ve got Chechens fighting for Russia and for Ukraine. Then you have the awkwardness of former US troops fighting for Ukraine working with the very Chechens they saw in conflict in Afghanistan. 

 

For me the concept of "wining a war" has only value, if achieved within weeks/months of launching a war. After that time value element kicks in and everything gets to be relative and discounted.

 

Ukrainian "winning the war" or Russian "winning the war" are going forward highly relative concept.

 

 

 

 

[no_free_lunch]

2 hours ago, Castanza said:

The West loves a good proxy war. Taking full advantage of the situation to make sure Russia ends up as a third world country. The West will drag this out as long as possible. 
 

Everyone knows, even if Russia manages to win “militarily” there is no chance in Hell they would ever be able to hold Ukraine. The insurgency would be untenable. Also starting to look like the Chechens might seize the opportunity for some revenge. 
 

What a bizarre conflict. You’ve got Chechens fighting for Russia and for Ukraine. Then you have the awkwardness of former US troops fighting for Ukraine working with the very Chechens they saw in conflict in Afghanistan. 

I disagree and fear they could win and hold without western support. The soviets literally did this before in the 20th century.  They can go and do mass executions and brainwash the remainder.  You go kill 100k people and there will not be that many left with the will to resist.  That was the Chechnya playbook recently and similar story in Poland during ww2, just to pick a few examples.  

Edited January 30, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[Castanza]

9 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

I disagree and fear they could win and hold without western support. The soviets literally did this before in the 20th century.  They can go and do mass executions and brainwash the remainder.  You go kill 100k people and there will not be that many left with the will to resist.  That was the Chechnya playbook recently and similar story in Poland during ww2, just to pick a few examples.  

 

Without Western support, sure...but does that look like it's going away anytime soon? Highly doubtful. This is an opportunity the West cannot pass up. Russia has been a thorn in the side of NATO for a long time, and this is the opportunity to put an end to that. I think it's pretty clear what the West wants. 

 

Chechnya is like 6k square miles tucked between Russia and Georgia. Ukraine has 230k square miles with bordering NATO countries. That is an Apples to Oranges comparison. Russia does not have the resources or supply chain/logistics network to support that. The Russians trying to maintain power will look more like Rome trying to conquer Germania. 

 

Russian regulars do not have the will power for that. Most (not all) of the war crimes being committed have come from the conscripts and mercenaries so I highly doubt you'll see Russian regulars mass executing 100k people. More and more US Special Forces troops are going into Ukraine through private institutions and charities. Ukraine is becoming more and more tactically, medically, and organizationally sound by the day. Couple this with the growing number of Chechens (who are extremely capable) fighting for Ukraine and you have a better recipe for success. 

[no_free_lunch]

Castanza,

 

It's all part of the Russian playbook. I am not talking about some RU soldier randomly killing someone.  The executions are carried out by intelligence units in an organized fashion.  They target dissidents, former soldiers and anyone else else capable who is not wholeheartedly pro Russia. That is what is emerging from Kherson, now that its re-taken.  If you go around killing enough people you are going to squish resistance. 

 

It's also the same exact thing as in Chechnya.   Putin was in charge of that too.  It's actually likely to be more effective in Ukraine than Chechnya as Ukraine us culturally more similar than Chechnya.

 

There are already pro Russia elements of the population.  The Russians would empower those elements, it's going to be tough to resist that for very long. 

 

This was all done, multiple times in the 20th century.  I don't mean to belittle  but if you read the history,  and I've read too much, it can be done.  It's how the USSR was assembled. 

Edited January 30, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[Castanza]

28 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Castanza,

 

It's all part of the Russian playbook. I am not talking about some RU soldier randomly killing someone.  The executions are carried out by intelligence units in an organized fashion.  They target dissidents, former soldiers and anyone else else capable who is not wholeheartedly pro Russia. That is what is emerging from Kherson, now that its re-taken.  If you go around killing enough people you are going to squish resistance. 

 

It's also the same exact thing as in Chechnya.   Putin was in charge of that too.  It's actually likely to be more effective in Ukraine than Chechnya as Ukraine us culturally more similar than Chechnya.

 

There are already pro Russia elements of the population.  The Russians would empower those elements, it's going to be tough to resist that for very long. 

 

This was all done, multiple times in the 20th century.  I don't mean to belittle  but if you read the history,  and I've read too much, it can be done.  It's how the USSR was assembled. 

 

History is not always indicative of the present. There is also a significant amount of Russian citizens fighting for Ukraine...Russia is not the same as the USSR. This is a ridiculous comparison. Watch some interviews and listen to some podcasts with people who are there and are seeing first hand accounts of what's happening on the ground. No offense to you....but I will listen to the opinions of US SF (who are the best in the world at what they do insurgency guerilla warfare, unconventional unit tactics, and training up native troops) then your desire to constantly compare this to WWII or what happened in Chechnya. 

 

Just a month ago you were lambasting everyone on here for saying the West shouldn't try to negotiate a peace deal. You were saying "The Ukrainians will never give up they will fight tooth and nail till the end." Now all of a sudden you're just coming to your own conclusion that Russia is going to capture and execute 100k Ukrainians and break their resolve. 

Edited January 30, 2023 by Castanza

[no_free_lunch]

I think it's ridiculous to NOT compare it to Chechnya. That was only 20-30 years ago. Putin had a hand in that. Of course they will use the same tactics.

 

I will keep my ww2 comparisons,  thanks. Russia is the same garbage pile ethically as the USSR.  Human life doesn't mean much to them.  Have you seen how they are treating even their own citizens, sending them to Ukraine with minimal training and coordination. 

 

I am not saying there will be no resistance movement but it's wishful thinking that will mean anything.  Sure somebody might use an ied here or there.  Not going to stop them from controlling the country.

 

In the occupied areas they are putting people through filtration camps. Children are being separated from their parents.  People are disappearing if Russia deems appropriate.   I don't see how you get any reasonable resistance out of that.

 

Your last comments are thrashing nonsense.  Ukraine will fight when they have half a chance. They are not all going to suicide. 

 

 

Edited January 31, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[Dinar]

@Castanza, do not debate.  Anyone who says anything rational here is immediately called a Putin apologist, and a pro-Russian jerk.  One can be sympathetic to the Ukrainian cause and abhor Putin & Russian invasion, while being realistic about vulnerabilities of both sides, however too many people here cannot think rationally about this war.

[Castanza]

@no_free_lunch

 

IEDs are probably the single most effective tool used in war over the last 80 years outside of the Atomic Bomb. There is a reason the US DOD had to spend billions figuring out ways to over come them. It creates an almost untenable situation for the invading force. Simple IEDs built by people with no education, no money, and nothing but an AK47 some flip flops and a walk-in talkie stopped histories most powerful military in its tracks. So if a military with unlimited resources couldn’t stop and insurgency how is Russia a country with scarce resources, short supply of munitions s, poor training and a crippled economy going to do it when the other guys have western backing (seemingly unlimited funds). 
 

Counter Insurgency has almost never worked. (Columbia is the “bestish”  example of it working)
 

10-2=12 

 

Things Russia will need to be able to do if they wish to maintain control of Ukraine and overcome an insurgency. 
 

1.    ⁠Establishment of a local ally as a power broker. For this to succeed it is important to be flexible with who you talk to (old enemies and ideologically not palatable actors can make do). Having a potent local ally is better than having “ideologically clean” one.

2.    ⁠Divide et Empera. Majority of countries have competing factions/ethnicities. Exploit old grievances and creat new ones so that those factions seek support from invading force.

3.    ⁠Radicalize opposition (by elimination of moderate wing) so it has less support from inside and outside.

4.    ⁠Quickly provide well being and efficient administration on occupied territories while denying it for the uncontrolled ones.

5.    ⁠Support local allies without interference - locals can rule locals better than anyone, so don’t impose your values when it’s unnecessary.

6.    ⁠Creat image of perpetuality of current administration so that local population can’t see any alternatives.

7.    ⁠Engage and integrate local armed formations into central command so that potential insurgents are on your payroll and somewhat controlled.

This is not going to be an easy thing to do and I’d say the odds of western powers allowing it are slim to none. 
 

Ukraine is already littered with mines and IEDs. Problem currently is that it’s very poorly organized. In fact Ukraine is not even sharing information regarding location of mines with troops as they rotate in and out. The US has recognized this (at least some have) and there are a handful of groups/organizations that are dedicated specifically to this task. 
 

Night Vision is also a huge advantage for Ukraine and will continue to grow as they get more of it. It was the US’s biggest advantage in Iraq. Outside of a few groups the majority of Russian troops are not issued nvg. 
 

At the end of the day, you can’t kill your way out of a COIN environment. It simply doesn’t work. Russias military is pretty much equipped to only do this at this point in time. 
 

So no I think it will be impossible for Russia to maintain any type of control over Ukraine even if they turn every city to rubble. Parts of it on the Eastern front? Possibly….but that could simply come about by negotiations. 
 

But hey, you’re right in wrong because 1945 or something like that…..

[no_free_lunch]

I don't really disagree with much of this.  I think though that you underestimate what Russia is willing to do.  To your points, its items 1, 4, 5, 6 in particular that they will use.  There are pro-Russian elements, we saw that when regions were taken over.   So these elements will be empowered.   Russians will be encouraged to emigrate.  As I said, they will try to intimitdate or liquidate any Ukrainian nationalists.  They would try to wipe out the Ukrainian identity once and for all.

 

Far better to fight a conventional war than to get into that garbage. 

Edited January 31, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[Castanza]

7 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

I don't really disagree with much of this.  

 

Far better to fight a conventional war than to get into that garbage. 

 

Well it doesn't really matter if you agree or disagree. What i wrote was a simplified version of the US's Counter Insurgency Field Manual. It's what the West is planning for and has been silently implementing from Day 1 of the invasion. We have 20+ years of research on Counter Insurgency and have a CIA/SF that is pretty damn good at implementing and establishing Insurgencies. Russia's goal was a quick take over and it failed. So now they are in an uncomfortable situation where they have to expend more resources than they want to and basically at a standstill. The exchange of shells won't go on forever and is not an end al be all strategy for either side. Russia has to push in further and install leadership in areas to maintain control. Ukraine either has to expel Russia or make it a living hell for them to exist there and deplete their resources, manpower, and will over time. The West is clearly supporting the conventional war aspects now and planning for the coming insurgency that's inevitable should Russia try to hold Ukraine. 

 

https://news.yahoo.com/cia-trained-ukrainian-paramilitaries-may-take-central-role-if-russia-invades-185258008.html

 

https://mwi.usma.edu/war-books-building-counterinsurgency-library/

If you haven't read Petraeus's book I recommend it. 

[james22]

10 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

To your points, its items 1, 4, 5, 6 in particular that they will use.

 

4 (Quickly provide well being and efficient administration...)??

 

They can't provide that at home.

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-02-01/ukraine-russia-war-us-tanks-missiles-may-bring-putin-to-the-table?srnd=premium-europe

 

https://www.newsweek.com/what-are-small-diameter-bombs-us-weapon-might-cross-putins-red-line-1775059

[no_free_lunch]

20 hours ago, james22 said:

 

4 (Quickly provide well being and efficient administration...)??

 

They can't provide that at home.

Not well but they would provide something. If you watch RU propaganda they really pride themselves on this sort of thing.

 

Note that in Russia there is not really a significant resistance movement. It would eventually be the same in Ukraine. 

 

Castanza, trusting what the CIA says is madness. Of course they will try for a counter insurgency and I don't doubt it will exist if that's the argument.   I just don't see it being  effective once RU deploys all their tools.   Far easier to fight a conventional war and if it's lost let's burn the country down and get as many people out as possible.  Scorched earth, deny it to the beast. 

Edited February 1, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

Not well but they would provide something. If you watch RU propaganda they really pride themselves on this sort of thing.

 

Note that in Russia there is not really a significant resistance movement. It would eventually be the same in Ukraine. 

 

Castanza, trusting what the CIA says is madness. Of course they will try for a counter insurgency and I don't doubt it will exist if that's the argument.   I just don't see it being  effective once RU deploys all their tools.   Far easier to fight a conventional war and if it's lost let's burn the country down and get as many people out as possible.  Scorched earth, deny it to the beast. 

 

"Don't trust the CIA, but trust what Russian Propaganda says".....

[no_free_lunch]

2 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

"Don't trust the CIA, but trust what Russian Propaganda says".....

I never said to trust Russia propaganda but to listen to it and I'm not going to play childish word games with you.  

[Xerxes]

Not current news but pretty interesting. 
 

Notes for the French-speaking gunner on how to identify German tanks and their “soft” spot. The last one with a “deux” next to it is a Tiger II (aka King Tiger)

 

 

[UK]

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/01/29/ukraine-should-and-properly-supported-can-seize-crimea-argues-ben-hodges

[no_free_lunch]

5 hours ago, UK said:

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/01/29/ukraine-should-and-properly-supported-can-seize-crimea-argues-ben-hodges

As pro Ukraine as I am, I could care less about Crimea. It has a history of being Russian.  An offensive on it is more a tool to divert Russian defenses.

 

I think it would be reasonable to surrender Crimea in exchange for a return of the other areas and peace.  

Edited February 4, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[Xerxes]

I found this interesting. Not the content of it, which I have not read in details, and is a different discussion altogether, perhaps not suited for this forum where extreme biases dominates, including my very own without-proof-Poles-did-it theory. But the fact that the author behind this is someone I never heard about, yet as I was browsing his name on line, I actually found that I have his bombshell book (unread) in my own very library.

 

How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline (substack.com)

 

The plot thickens !

 

The Price of Power: Kissinger in the Nixon White House: Hersh, Seymour M.: 9780671447601: Books - Amazon.ca

 

Tucked in neatly in between the Dead Hand (read) and the Iron Kingdom (unread).

I got to get Price of Power ahead of the line !!

 

 

Edited February 10, 2023 by Xerxes

[Xerxes]

Awesome interview with John Bolton. The “Hawk” nails it. It is part of the PBS Frontline documentary called “Putin and the Presidents” which I think non-Americans cannot watch without VPN. I couldn’t even find it. 
 

In any case you can watch the interviews. 

 

  

[changegonnacome]

13 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Awesome interview with John Bolton. The “Hawk” nails it. It is part of the PBS Frontline documentary called “Putin and the Presidents” which I think non-Americans cannot watch without VPN. I couldn’t even find it. 
 

In any case you can watch the interviews. 

 

  

 

Look forward to watching this - Bolton is a hawk for sure.....on a go forward basis I tend to be skeptical of his bias towards action......as a critic of past strategy it give him's more latitude than most.

 

Curious for those following the Russian side of things more closely than me.........has Putin, with ever increasing escalation and provision of weapons from NATO states, managed to stir some genuine nationalistic fervor at home? Which leads me to the below (and in some ways its a prerequisite).

 

In terms of the toolkit of escalation available to Putin/Russia, outside of the military options, and in light of the recent move to reduce Russian oil production by 500,000 barrels a day......do people see the possibility or the fiscal space from a Russian economic perspective for them, as part of the war effort and to hurt the global economy, to reduce Russian oil production by something much more dramatic?

 

Seems to me of the escalatory options left available to Russia with a genuine global impact (outside of strategic nukes)....is its ability to drive oil prices up to uncomfortable levels for the global economy. That is if their fiscal, oligarch & domestic population could support it for a few months. Interested in the various thoughts on this - withholding natural gas didn't break Europe that was the 'cheap' energy play for Putin......oil is much more lucrative and the real Russian cash cow.......does he fully weaponize this next?

[Spekulatius]

The main reason that Putin is reducing crude production is to reduce the sky high differential to other regular crudes. Increasing the overall crude prices is a secondary effect, but also welcome of course.

Ironically, the high differential have been benefiting Russias economic allies China and India the most, as they have been benefitting from being the only buyers left for Rusdian oil and were able to buy Russian at very low prices.

 

So China and India will get hurt more than the rest of the world because less Russian crude supply will mean lower differential in addition to higher prices overall.

I do think Putin can do this for a while , but there are problems with shutting in production , as field can be also impossible  to start up again. I don’t think China and India will like this move either, so similar to the NG embargo, he plays for short term benefit but damages his position longer term.