Russia-Ukrainian War

[Spekulatius]

I have donated to this organization that help with humanitarian aid as well as helping out some territorial forces that are often under supplied relative to regular military units.

https://www.mightycause.com/story/M1wzpf?amp;

 

I suppose these a Ukrainian organization in the US know what they are doing. While I sympathize with the Ukrainians, it is important to keep in mind that Ukraine is considered a fairly corrupt country and I don’t think a war really improves this situation either.

[Xerxes]

Thanks Spek. 
 

unrelated to Ukraine, I think the most effective donation are the ones people are doing in their own local community. Effective defined as “close to full worth of dollar” making a difference.

 

the further is the geographical distance between the donor and the destination, more gets shaved off that one dollar donation. Perhaps 15 cents for every 1,000 miles. 

[aws]

1 hour ago, Blugolds11 said:

 

If Ukraine found out Russians were doing this it would be all over the news, sick demented attackers write messages on munitions that level the country…

 

 

The Russian missile that killed over 50 fleeing civilians at a train station was painted with "for the children"

 

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-missile-kramatorsk-civilian-train-station-children-painted-1696354

 

 

[Spekulatius]

21 minutes ago, aws said:

 

The Russian missile that killed over 50 fleeing civilians at a train station was painted with "for the children"

 

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-missile-kramatorsk-civilian-train-station-children-painted-1696354

 

 

This was a cluster bomb, which are banned, yet the Russians keep using them. The marking may be misinterpreted though that the bomb most likely wasn’t aimed at children (the Russian intelligence and strike precision isn’t good enough anyways) and the bomb marking was a reference to an alleged strike of the Ukrainian military  in the Donetz or Luhansk area that hit children there. It was meant as an retaliation for this.

Edited July 24, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Spekulatius]

I think if we are talking about the geopolitical endgame it seems inevitable that Europe will try to become closer to the USA again. They tried to play a middle role between Russia and the US with the EU etc but that plan really fell apart in 2014 and even more so with the Russian invasion  and now it’s clear for everyone, I think.

We have got the iron curtain do over and while not directly, Europe is now at war with Russia. i a, not even sure that Putins demise would change anything as many Russians agree with him to some extend. I don’t think this is going to go well for Russia in the long run. Their demographics are already bad as is and energy and resources are what keeps them afloat, but talent is going to leave the country ins roves and most likely makes their problems worse. Maybe they become a Chinese puppet but I don’t think this is likely either.

 

Maybe I should try some of Peter Zeihans books.

Edited July 24, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Ulti]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22/russia-economy-sanctions-myths-ruble-business/

[changegonnacome]

Nord Stream Gas Flows to Drop to 20% of Capacity, Russia’s Gazprom Says

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nord-stream-gas-flows-to-drop-to-20-of-capacity-russias-gazprom-says-11658760473?mod=hp_lead_pos3

 

Here we go.....its leverage time.....lets see if its aimed at negotiating a settlement to the conflict later this winter.......the grain deal and this are what I would expect from a Russia looking for 'peace with honor'.

 

Like it or not Macron is correct in that it is not wise to humiliate Putin/Russia........even in a scenario where the West/NATO/Ukraine has stifled Russia & shown its undoubted superiority.

[Pelagic]

I'm honestly surprised there isn't more crowdfunding being done to encourage defection of Russian soldiers. A bonus for defecting coupled with a pathway to citizenship somewhere else seems like an easy way to destabilize the Russian military even more. Early in the war I read a good piece on why Argentina would be the perfect host country if EU countries weren't amenable to the idea. Toss in additional bonuses for sabotaged equipment and things start to stack up even more in Ukraine's favor.

 

Russians are being enticed to sign up for the military for a bonus that equates to something like $4,000 US and then monthly payments of $3-4,000. If western citizens can raise millions for Ukraine to buy a Bayraktar, a few million to encourage defections and destabilize Russian forces seems like a pretty good ROI.

 

Very rough math as a point of comparison, the US spent in the neighborhood of $27 million to kill one insurgent in Afghanistan. Something in the neighborhood of mid 5 figures would likely be plenty to see some meaningful defection, especially since it doesn't seem Russian soldiers are particularly ideologically committed to war with Ukraine.

 

 

Edited July 25, 2022 by Pelagic

[John Hjorth]

32 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Nord Stream Gas Flows to Drop to 20% of Capacity, Russia’s Gazprom Says

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nord-stream-gas-flows-to-drop-to-20-of-capacity-russias-gazprom-says-11658760473?mod=hp_lead_pos3

 

Here we go.....its leverage time.....lets see if its aimed at negotiating a settlement to the conflict later this winter.......the grain deal and this are what I would expect from a Russia looking for 'peace with honor'.

 

Like it or not Macron is correct in that it is not wise to humiliate Putin/Russia........even in a scenario where the West/NATO/Ukraine has stifled Russia & shown its undoubted superiority.

 

Source [This topic is so far saturated with this kind of biased information because of lack to primary [first hand] sources.

Edited July 25, 2022 by John Hjorth

[Castanza]

48 minutes ago, Pelagic said:

I'm honestly surprised there isn't more crowdfunding being done to encourage defection of Russian soldiers. A bonus for defecting coupled with a pathway to citizenship somewhere else seems like an easy way to destabilize the Russian military even more. Early in the war I read a good piece on why Argentina would be the perfect host country if EU countries weren't amenable to the idea. Toss in additional bonuses for sabotaged equipment and things start to stack up even more in Ukraine's favor.

 

Russians are being enticed to sign up for the military for a bonus that equates to something like $4,000 US and then monthly payments of $3-4,000. If western citizens can raise millions for Ukraine to buy a Bayraktar, a few million to encourage defections and destabilize Russian forces seems like a pretty good ROI.

 

Very rough math as a point of comparison, the US spent in the neighborhood of $27 million to kill one insurgent in Afghanistan. Something in the neighborhood of mid 5 figures would likely be plenty to see some meaningful defection, especially since it doesn't seem Russian soldiers are particularly ideologically committed to war with Ukraine.

They don't have to be committed to the cause to continue to fight. They are committed to their buddies next to them in the trench. This is pretty common in most wars. Even with US troops in Afghanistan or Iraq there were plenty of troops not fully behind what they were doing. But at the eod they were committed to each other and carried on. Same thing for every military throughout all of history. 

 

Have some defect and you'll have strict punishment (bullet to the back of the head) that will put a quick end to any further defectors. 

 

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

Nord Stream Gas Flows to Drop to 20% of Capacity, Russia’s Gazprom Says

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nord-stream-gas-flows-to-drop-to-20-of-capacity-russias-gazprom-says-11658760473?mod=hp_lead_pos3

 

Here we go.....its leverage time.....lets see if its aimed at negotiating a settlement to the conflict later this winter.......the grain deal and this are what I would expect from a Russia looking for 'peace with honor'.

 

Like it or not Macron is correct in that it is not wise to humiliate Putin/Russia........even in a scenario where the West/NATO/Ukraine has stifled Russia & shown its undoubted superiority.

 

Macros is quite right. People seem to forget that Nuclear weapons are primarily defensive options, not offensive. Back Putin into a corner with no out and that risk goes up imo. 

[aws]

1 hour ago, Pelagic said:

I'm honestly surprised there isn't more crowdfunding being done to encourage defection of Russian soldiers. A bonus for defecting coupled with a pathway to citizenship somewhere else seems like an easy way to destabilize the Russian military even more. Early in the war I read a good piece on why Argentina would be the perfect host country if EU countries weren't amenable to the idea. Toss in additional bonuses for sabotaged equipment and things start to stack up even more in Ukraine's favor.

 

Russians are being enticed to sign up for the military for a bonus that equates to something like $4,000 US and then monthly payments of $3-4,000. If western citizens can raise millions for Ukraine to buy a Bayraktar, a few million to encourage defections and destabilize Russian forces seems like a pretty good ROI.

 

Very rough math as a point of comparison, the US spent in the neighborhood of $27 million to kill one insurgent in Afghanistan. Something in the neighborhood of mid 5 figures would likely be plenty to see some meaningful defection, especially since it doesn't seem Russian soldiers are particularly ideologically committed to war with Ukraine.

 

 

 

There has been an outstanding offer to pay large sums of cash and citizenship for defections with military equipment, although I don't know how serious the offer was intended to be or if it yielded anything. There was a story going around on Twitter today about negotiations for pilots defecting, but it turned into more of a spy drama with the FSB trying to pump Ukraine for info about anti-aircraft guns and the Ukrainians tricking them into traveling to Minsk to wait around for meetings that would never happen.

 

 

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, Pelagic said:

I'm honestly surprised there isn't more crowdfunding being done to encourage defection of Russian soldiers. A bonus for defecting coupled with a pathway to citizenship somewhere else seems like an easy way to destabilize the Russian military even more. Early in the war I read a good piece on why Argentina would be the perfect host country if EU countries weren't amenable to the idea. Toss in additional bonuses for sabotaged equipment and things start to stack up even more in Ukraine's favor.

 

Russians are being enticed to sign up for the military for a bonus that equates to something like $4,000 US and then monthly payments of $3-4,000. If western citizens can raise millions for Ukraine to buy a Bayraktar, a few million to encourage defections and destabilize Russian forces seems like a pretty good ROI.

 

Very rough math as a point of comparison, the US spent in the neighborhood of $27 million to kill one insurgent in Afghanistan. Something in the neighborhood of mid 5 figures would likely be plenty to see some meaningful defection, especially since it doesn't seem Russian soldiers are particularly ideologically committed to war with Ukraine.

 

 

Defection is technically difficult. Most of the soldiers aren't operating alone so, so unless the entire unit is on board, how do you defect. Then there is risk that the enemy unit on the other side don't regard you as a threat and just shoot you to smithereens.

 

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

They don't have to be committed to the cause to continue to fight. They are committed to their buddies next to them in the trench. This is pretty common in most wars. Even with US troops in Afghanistan or Iraq there were plenty of troops not fully behind what they were doing. But at the eod they were committed to each other and carried on. Same thing for every military throughout all of history. 

 

Have some defect and you'll have strict punishment (bullet to the back of the head) that will put a quick end to any further defectors. 

 

 

Macros is quite right. People seem to forget that Nuclear weapons are primarily defensive options, not offensive. Back Putin into a corner with no out and that risk goes up imo. 

That was expected. Putin playing his games with everything - grain deal, NG etc. His NG games will be over after the winter though for the most part.

 

Anyways those people who think that negotiations lead anywhere with him should really think over their position.

 

[Xerxes]

At this point, the battle lines has been drawn, blood has been spilled, brothers have killed brothers, so unlikely that negotiation would lead anywhere. Historical inertia is doing most of the work, and things need to get worse and mood needs to get darker, before there is tangible interest from either side. And that won’t be before 2023 winter.  
 

But not talking also doesn’t lead anywhere.

I will also add that “negotiation will not lead anywhere” narrative (which is definitely true now) wasn’t the case right at the beginning of the conflict. But there was too much emotional investment by the West to let that happen. We needed to humiliate Russia. 

 

Now lets see things from the other side (Kremlin). Let forgot about NATO mishaps, promises etx. All water under the bridge. 
 

knowing everything we know now, do you really feel that Kremlin would allow some strategic pause for Western countries to fill Ukraine with all the military h/w they can and have another go at it (Ala Punic Wars). The answer is a clear no. They rather have a perpetual conflict (with different level of intensity) that gives them free reign, in this perpetual conflict Ukraine (backed by western countries, sometimes wavering sometimes not) will be pitted against Russia’ long game and its reserves. 
 

I know I know I know. We overestimate Russia. But just because they botched the short game don’t underestimate their capacity to absorb pain, and inflict similar pain on Ukraine, which may not be able to absorb. 
 

 

all this to say it is real shit show. 

Edited July 25, 2022 by Xerxes

[Castanza]

24 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

That was expected. Putin playing his games with everything - grain deal, NG etc. His NG games will be over after the winter though for the most part.

 

Anyways those people who think that negotiations lead anywhere with him should really think over their position.

 

 

Putin has been trying to negotiate with NATO since what 2008? Fell on deaf ears and now here we are. 

 

Idk if it will work or not now but what I do know is an approach that ends the bloodshed should be at the forefront of every politicians mind. Russia HAS to feel like they've won something or this gets worse. What does Putin have to lose if the West cripples his economy, sanctions everything they export indefinitely, and lets it be known that Putin will never have a seat at the table again. Nothing... 

 

Some of you guys act like the ones calling for negotiations are rooting for Putin which couldn't be further from the case. 

 

Who was Qasem Soleimani and why did the US hate him so much?  Well he was aiding another force and supplying weapons. Taking him out was advantageous to the US but the caveat/lesson here is that is what we are doing with Ukraine is the same thing Soleimani was doing. Russia likely views us this way (and has made it known) That's something we shouldn't take lightly. 

 

Tempt not a desperate man. Unlike North Korea, Russia actually has nuclear capability of working and if backed into a corner with nowhere to go for the next 30 years that option seems more likely now than it ever did before. 

[changegonnacome]

26 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Some of you guys act like the ones calling for negotiations are rooting for Putin which couldn't be further from the case. 

 

+1

 

I'm rooting for Ukraine and its people.........but some times your best friend, can be your worst enemy........the current strategy aided and abetted & fundamentally enabled by 'the West' has Ukraine on a pathway to Allepo'izing its whole country. This is not wise if alternative potential outcomes exist.

 

 

The above is not a zero probability outcome for every Ukrainian city larger 250,000 people

Edited July 25, 2022 by changegonnacome

[Castanza]

Queue the lawyer backed “Military Advisors”. No more sure fire way to get drug into a long drawn out conflict than lawyers pushing for military advisors being sent down range. 
 

war is a racket 

[mcliu]

Clearly the sanctions have not worked. For the most part, Russian elites and commoners have stood behind Putin.

 

Ukraine's going to turn into a blackhole of money for the West, much like Iraq and Afghanistan. This money would have been better spent building domestic infrastructure, renewable energy, education and healthcare. The way democracy wins against autocracy is not through wars but to show that the system is superior.

 

Georgia surrendered to Russia after 12 days. Georgia is still an independent country and its infrastructure is largely left intact. GDP per capita has increased >30% since that war. The longer Ukraine fights, the great probability the country will be left in ruins. 

[Castanza]

18 minutes ago, mcliu said:

Clearly the sanctions have not worked. For the most part, Russian elites and commoners have stood behind Putin.

 

Ukraine's going to turn into a blackhole of money for the West, much like Iraq and Afghanistan. This money would have been better spent building domestic infrastructure, renewable energy, education and healthcare. The way democracy wins against autocracy is not through wars but to show that the system is superior.

 

Georgia surrendered to Russia after 12 days. Georgia is still an independent country and its infrastructure is largely left intact. GDP per capita has increased >30% since that war. The longer Ukraine fights, the great probability the country will be left in ruins. 

agree with this take! US needs to get back to its roots of noninterventionism. We have enough problems at home. 
 

M.K. Bhadrakumar (former Indian ambassador) has had a lot of good articles on the subject. 
 

“US went into this with a 4 pillar approach and every single one has failed” 
 

https://www.indianpunchline.com/ukraine-grain-deal-is-a-feel-good-event-but-road-to-peace-is-long-and-winding/

[changegonnacome]

19 hours ago, Castanza said:

agree with this take! US needs to get back to its roots of noninterventionism. We have enough problems at home. 

Agree somewhat…….US foreign policy energy & $ are being wasted in Ukraine…..when the real peer competitor ( China) is rising fast and making moves globally (BRI)….US needs to pivot back to Asia fast……being embroiled in the shit show in Eastern Europe is not smart and I’m sure Xi wakes up everyday hoping more military hardware & US military mind power is getting dumped into Ukraine to fight a fading fake boogeyman enemy like Putin/Russia.

[Castanza]

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

Agree somewhat…….US foreign policy energy & $ are being wasted in Ukraine…..when the real peer competitor ( China) is rising fast and making moves globally (BRI)….US needs to pivot back to Asia fast……being embroiled in the shit show in Eastern Europe is not smart and I’m sure Xi wakes up everyday hoping more military hardware & US military mind power is getting dumped into Ukraine to fight a fading fake boogeyman enemy like Putin/Russia.

Yup, the US is stretching itself thin on resources and sentiment. This country is already war weary, recruitment was down 40%, the military has gone woke and people who actually do the hard shit in the military feel ostracized. US needs to take a step back and get its own house in order first. China is a bigger deal long term. And getting drug into a 10-15 year land war is not beneficial in any capacity. 

[changegonnacome]

You cant make it up........this Vogue thing might do more to dis-unite European leaders than Russia dialling back gas supplies.

 

Vogue Photo Shoot for the Zelenskys . Its like something from Wag the Dog if anyone remembers that movie.

 

 

Edited July 28, 2022 by changegonnacome

[Xerxes]

On 7/24/2022 at 1:35 PM, Xerxes said:

^^^ 

On a different note, I just bought a copy of “Peter the Great” and “Catherine the Great” books, written by Robert Massie.  

 

 

Received my +900 page copy of Peter the Great. The objective would be to be wiser 900 pages later. 
 

[Spekulatius]

Russian economy in bad shape:

 

[Spekulatius]

Russia running out of friends. Probably the next target for an invasion:

https://www.wsj.com/video/series/shelby-holliday/kazakhstan-unease-toward-russia-grows-as-ukraine-war-drags-on/2A4C2EC4-481D-401E-89E8-D94D1A185565