Russia-Ukrainian War - Political

[Luke]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Very good post and points here, @Castanza ,

 

In that respect : Zero performance bonus here for the two presidents and the vice president. Counterproductive and not positive in any way for a solution to the overall matter at hand, and likely also not at all to any of the parties involved in this whole mess, here even meant as including for Russia.

Dictated peace is worse than having WW3, got it

[cubsfan]

14 minutes ago, gary17 said:

I think Trump's position on the issue while makes sense, the unintended onsequence is that many countries like Korea, Taiwan , etc will look at this and realize the only true security guarantee they'll ever have is to have their own nuclear weapons.   

 

I don't disagree it's a bad situation and I don't know how else one would negotiate with Putin,  but  i think backing away from the 'leader of the free world' (right or wrong) creates a void for others to step in.  just my two cents.

 

You are correct. It's a bad situation, especially for Zelensky. He just threw away his winning hand.

[John Hjorth]

25 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

This discussion brings to mind the age old question:  Which is more important, form or substance?  Clearly the optics(form) here were terrible.  But with regard to substance does anyone have a better idea how to resolve this issue?  Seems like everyone is critical of the other as to form but no one seems to have a better idea than the one proposed by Trump which at least saves the US taxpayer from continuing to fund endless bloodshed and an unwinnable war.  There are a lot of way to coerce compromise; we saw one yesterday.  Whether it works is anyone's guess.

 

@73 Reds,

 

Three presidents, one of them a vice, all three amateurs out in diplomacy. Now next lower level professional diplomatic ressources from both sides will discretely step in and will clean up the messwithout any yelling, namecalling etc. that their political superiors here created yesterday. Three skating men on ice delivering a performance getting a low grade for the artistic impression. A bump in the road.

 

I personally don't think or believe the US administration have a clue of, nor even a specific and tangible plan for how to solve this conflict.

[John Hjorth]

25 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

This discussion brings to mind the age old question:  Which is more important, form or substance?  Clearly the optics(form) here were terrible.  But with regard to substance does anyone have a better idea how to resolve this issue?  Seems like everyone is critical of the other as to form but no one seems to have a better idea than the one proposed by Trump which at least saves the US taxpayer from continuing to fund endless bloodshed and an unwinnable war.  There are a lot of way to coerce compromise; we saw one yesterday.  Whether it works is anyone's guess.

 

@73 Reds,

 

Three presidents, one of them a vice, all three amateurs out in diplomacy. Now next lower level professional diplomatic ressources from both sides will discretely step in and will clean up the messwithout any yelling, namecalling etc. that their political superiors here created yesterday. Three skating men on ice delivering a performance getting a low grade for the artistic impression. A bump in the road.

 

I personally don't think or believe the US administration have a clue of, nor even a specific and tangible plan for how to solve this conflict.

[cubsfan]

5 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

I think yesterday's confrontation needed to happen - though not necessarily in the public eye.  It did nothing to denigrate what the US stands for in spite of what many Trump haters may believe.  The World will get over its collective vitriol when it recognizes that the "America First" movement is not about US control, but rather about returning to a semblance of balance as to the respective roles of each major western-thinking nation with respect to responsibility and material policy.  The World is a dangerous place and IMO large swaths of morality have been completely corrupted; this is clearly on display every time the UN meets and embarrasses itself while most Western nations sit idly by and do nothing.   

 

+1 - We can argue about the optics and methods as you say. The public forum makes clear America's stance for all to see. 

 

I'll say it again - all the matter is results, not methods.  In this case, ending a pointless war.

 

I find it laughable that people think this war would be an easy to end.

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@73 Reds,

 

Three presidents, one of them a vice, all three amateurs out in diplomacy. Now next lower level professional diplomatic ressources from both sides will discretely step in and will clean up the messwithout any yelling, namecalling etc. that their political superiors here created yesterday. Three skating men on ice delivering a performance getting a low grade for the artistic impression. A bump in the road.

 

I personally don't think or believe the US administration have a clue of, nor even a specific and tangible plan for how to solve this conflict.

John, as stated the optics were bad.  But has anyone proposed a better plan?  I'm all ears.

[cubsfan]

3 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@73 Reds,

 

Three presidents, one of them a vice, all three amateurs out in diplomacy. Now next lower level professional diplomatic ressources from both sides will discretely step in and will clean up the messwithout any yelling, namecalling etc. that their political superiors here created yesterday. Three skating men on ice delivering a performance getting a low grade for the artistic impression. A bump in the road.

 

I personally don't think or believe the US administration have a clue of, nor even a specific and tangible plan for how to solve this conflict.

 

Personally, I can't wait to see the European leaders host a nice tea party for Putin & Zelensky for the signing of the treaty. Don't forget the Danish pastries - everyone will feel so much better. 

[Ulti]

https://dnyuz.com/2025/03/01/trump-is-rootin-for-putin/

[cubsfan]

24 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

John, as stated the optics were bad.  But has anyone proposed a better plan?  I'm all ears.

 

Silence...... because Europe has had 3 years to settle this, certainly should have been done 2 years ago when momentum was behind them.  They tried to wait out the election and hope that Kamala would win.  That was their piss poor plan. Now they have to scramble.

 

So - yeah - they have no better plan. Just a war of words berating the USA.

[Pelagic]

Trump's post conference comments make his stance clearer than anything he's said or done previously. He wants peace now, at essentially any cost. He also seems to think Putin wants peace now too when its far more likely Putin would relish a ceasefire to replenish forces along the entirety of the front. It's also incredible that he continues to criticize Zelensky for not saying anything nice about Putin, just a fundamental misunderstanding of the conflict from Ukraine's perspective. To this point, Trump said something odd in the Fox News radio interview last week about only having just learned about kidnapped Ukrainian children, which is a core issue for Ukraine since the start of the conflict. Furthermore this specific issue has been a major topic among Evangelical Christians in the US, Franklin Graham (major Evangelical figure and Trump supporter) has done a lot of aid work in Ukraine on the issue for instance. Even one of Trump's closest allies in the senate, Lindsey Graham, has sponsored a bill on it and been a vocal proponent of returning the children to their families in Ukraine. Trump not being familiar with this issue, among many, is I think a microcosm for his understanding of the conflict and why him harping on Zelensky's criticism of Putin is likely to fall on deaf ears.

 

 

[cubsfan]

^^^^ There we go again. Trump is the responsible of all Ukraine's problems, even child kidnapping.

Nice.

 

Not a word about Biden or Europe ignoring this issue. It's all on Trump.

 

The sooner the USA gets out of this quagmire , the better.

[John Hjorth]

@73 Reds and Mike [ @cubsfan,

 

A suggestion :

 

1. Europe leases / borrows relatively short term [AirBnB style] some or all of CVN-68 to CVN-77 [the US Nimitz class aircraft carriers] from USA plus perhaps also CVN-78 [USS Gerald R. Ford] including all needed supplies, planes, crews [volunteer fighter pilots only, though, on double bubble, paid by Europe], and then we Europeans initiate a special military operation [<- you know, right?, -doing this is not war!], and then we kick all Russians and the likes out of the occupied areas of Ukraine. It's just a business deal with a dealmaker, also, right? And we do it a way, that Putin will never forget, and so that he never get such ideas again. It's called eating his own cooking.

 

2. Ukraine asked to back off and out of Russia.

 

3. New referendums about which state tot belong to in such areas covered by point 1. above, including Crimea.

 

4. Europe has to take care of it's own peacekeeping against Russia after the above sweep.

Edited 2 hours ago by John Hjorth

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, John Hjorth said:

@73 Reds,

 

A suggestion :

 

1. Europe leases / borrows relatively short term [AirBnB style] some or all of CVN-68 to CVN-77 [the US Nimitz class aircraft carriers] from USA plus perhaps also CVN-78 [USS Gerald R. Ford] including all needed supplies, planes, crews [volunteer fighter pilots only, though, on double bubble, paid by Europe], and then we Europeans initiate a special military operation [<- you know, right?, -doing this is not war!], and then we kick all Russians and the likes out of the occupied areas of Ukraine. It's just a business deal with a dealmaker, also, right? And we do it a way, that Putin will never forget, and so that he never get such ideas again. It's called eating his own cooking.

 

2. Ukraine asked to back off and out of Russia.

 

3. New referendums about which state tot belong to in such areas covered by point 1. above, including Crimea.

 

4. Europe has to take care of it's own peacekeeping against Russia after the above sweep.

No argument here Mr. Ambassador, now go sell your plan to the powers that be!

[cubsfan]

2 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

My change.  Unlikely Crimea & Donbas ever get returned. Or NATO membership ever happens.

15 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

@73 Reds and Mike [ @cubsfan,

 

A suggestion :

 

1. Europe leases / borrows relatively short term [AirBnB style] some or all of CVN-68 to CVN-77 [the US Nimitz class aircraft carriers] from USA plus perhaps also CVN-78 [USS Gerald R. Ford] including all needed supplies, planes, crews [volunteer fighter pilots only, though, on double bubble, paid by Europe], and then we Europeans initiate a special military operation [<- you know, right?, -doing this is not war!], and then we kick all Russians and the likes out of the occupied areas of Ukraine. It's just a business deal with a dealmaker, also, right? And we do it a way, that Putin will never forget, and so that he never get such ideas again. It's called eating his own cooking.

 

2. Ukraine asked to back off and out of Russia.

 

3. New referendums about which state tot belong to in such areas covered by point 1. above, including Crimea.

 

4. Europe has to take care of it's own peacekeeping against Russia after the above sweep.

 

I'll modify my response after a careful reading.

 

IMO - Europe should take the lead on negotiations with Putin. In Europe's mind, Trump is exactly the wrong individual to deal with anyone. So take the lead - work out what you can with all parties:

Ukraine, Russia, Europe and lastly the United States.

 

Perhaps an astute first step before the possibility of a Russian/Europe war.

 

Personally, I think Crimea, Donbas and NATO membership for Ukraine are non-starters and will lead to a much larger conflict.

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, Luke said:

Dictated peace is worse than having WW3, got it

That’s not even remotely close to what I said. I said discussion between world leaders (specifically Allies) should be done behind closed doors until you have something to share. 
 

-The reality of the war (death toll, monetary destruction, global disruption) needs to be discussed

- Does Ukraine have the ability to win WITH allied support or not. 
- Consequences of a Ukrainian loss need to be discussed.

- Future support and deterrence need to be discussed. 
- Russias future intentions need to be discussed 

WW3 could happen either way. 

 

[Pelagic]

32 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^^ There we go again. Trump is the responsible of all Ukraine's problems, even child kidnapping.

Nice.

 

Not a word about Biden or Europe ignoring this issue. It's all on Trump.

 

The sooner the USA gets out of this quagmire , the better.

Where do you possibly get the idea I was implying Trump was responsible for any of their problems, much less child kidnapping? My point was simply that not knowing it was an issue until last week is strange for someone who wants to end the conflict quickly. It's a central issue for Ukraine and he has plenty of friends/supporters that are very familiar with it.

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

He just threw away his winning hand.

He had a winning hand lol?  What was it?

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

 

There is enormous value in ambiguity in regards to Trump words. FAFO.

 

His enemies know he is totally unpredictable - just ask the Iranian generals, the Russian generals in Syria, the Taliban who tested him and earned the MOAB. 

 

When he says "don't", unlike flunky Biden or Obama - Trump means it.

 

That Zelensky played games with his best chance to end this war - was an enormous gamble.

He just threw away his Trump card.

What is the value of that ambiguity for Ukraine?

 

I don’t think Trump is as unpredictable as you think.

 

It’s pretty clear that US support comes with strings attached.  It’s also pretty clear Trump isn’t going to risk as he describes it ‘World War 3’.  It’s verging on predictable actually.

[Ulti]

2 minutes ago, Sweet said:

He had a winning hand lol?  What was it?

Probably temporary peace for 50%” minerals”, land and the 20000 Ukrainian kids Putin “ borrowed “

[cubsfan]

3 minutes ago, Sweet said:

He had a winning hand lol?  What was it?

 

The strongest military in the world on his side.

 

Like @james22 said - ambiguity is an enormous strategic advantage in final negotiations.

You or Putin have no idea what might be in store for Putin should he violate a final agreement.

 

To spell it out now would be a mistake, you save it for Putin.

 

I have a very hard time believing that Zelenksy is in a stronger postion against Putin without Trump.

[Luke]

42 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

@73 Reds and Mike [ @cubsfan,

 

A suggestion :

 

1. Europe leases / borrows relatively short term [AirBnB style] some or all of CVN-68 to CVN-77 [the US Nimitz class aircraft carriers] from USA plus perhaps also CVN-78 [USS Gerald R. Ford] including all needed supplies, planes, crews [volunteer fighter pilots only, though, on double bubble, paid by Europe], and then we Europeans initiate a special military operation [<- you know, right?, -doing this is not war!], and then we kick all Russians and the likes out of the occupied areas of Ukraine. It's just a business deal with a dealmaker, also, right? And we do it a way, that Putin will never forget, and so that he never get such ideas again. It's called eating his own cooking.

 

2. Ukraine asked to back off and out of Russia.

 

3. New referendums about which state tot belong to in such areas covered by point 1. above, including Crimea.

 

4. Europe has to take care of it's own peacekeeping against Russia after the above sweep.

That surely will not be possible without Russia knowing way in advance and immediately escalating further, maybe going nuclear? What would you do then? Is dictated peace still unacceptable if those are possible outcomes?

[cubsfan]

9 minutes ago, Ulti said:

Probably temporary peace for 50%” minerals”, land and the 20000 Ukrainian kids Putin “ borrowed “

 

It's really time for Europe to take this over. Obviously, the allies have lost confidence in Trump.

 

 

[Castanza]

2 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

It's really time for Europe to take this over. Obviously, the allies have lost confidence in Trump.

 

 

The problem is Europe can’t just push a button and fill US military and Intelligence support or supply lines. That is for a future “game.” 
 

War is not football and you don’t get a halftime to make adjustments. You roll with the game plan you had out of the gate until the game ends. It would take years for Europe to fill the shoes of the US in all areas. 

[John Hjorth]

50 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

No argument here Mr. Ambassador, now go sell your plan to the powers that be!

 

@73 Reds,

 

 

It has absolutely nothing with diplomacy to do.

 

It's hands-on problem solving by conscious choice of solution metod to achieve the desired solution and outcome, in a case, where one has no trust to the future behavior of the adversary, based on what one already has experienced.

 

It usually not that complicated, unless one is naive. One looks in the toolbox for the biggest hammer one have, and if the biggest hammer one have is considered not big enough, one may ask the friendly neighbour, if one can borrorow the bigger one, that you know that the friendly neighbour actually have

Edited 1 hour ago by John Hjorth
Fixed spelling

[james22]

It's almost like there are consequences for the EU's failing to invest in their defense (and energy independence) for the last 35 years.