Russia-Ukrainian War - Political

[cubsfan]

13 minutes ago, Spooky said:

 

I mean there is another option where the US provides a real security guarantee and deterrence for a lasting peace rather than just giving Putin whatever he wants.

 

The devil is always in the details. Like I said before - the GREATEST RISK for any negotiation is when the parties need to sign an agreement and all the happy talk is behind you. 

Now commitments need to be made.

So the deal blew up - and they will take another run at it. 

 

There is no guarantee that a deal will every come to fruition.

 

But the Europeans have a golden opportunity to propose their own deal now to Zelenksy.

Zelensky will be all ears.

 

Then Europe will be negotiating with Ukraine, Russia, the USA and their Eurozone.

 

I'm sure they will conduct their negotiations in a very polite manner. And I'd wish them the best of luck.

 

End this war 

Edited 4 hours ago by cubsfan

[John Hjorth]

2 minutes ago, Milu said:

Either way Europe needs to toughen up. We are a block with an economy about 10 times the size of Russia and 4 times the population yet we are the ones who look intimidated.

 

This. Thank you, @Milu. Proportions really matter here.

 

In the meantime everybody has forgotten that Russia by now, out of pure desparation, has started to use donkeys to bring ammo  to the frontline.

[cubsfan]

6 minutes ago, Milu said:

I wouldn’t be so sure, Europe waited out trump for 4 years until 2020 and here they are waiting until 2028. And don’t be so sure the MAGA movement ends when trump leaves office. If the policies end up working Vance would be more than able to continue them for another 4-8 years. Either way Europe needs to toughen up. We are a block with an economy about 10 times the size of Russia and 4 times the population yet we are the ones who look intimidated.

 

+1 - Bingo - Europe is more than capable of defending itself, conducting the Ukraine war or settling the war.

 

The MAGA movement elected Trump with the mantra - end the wars in Israel & Ukraine.

Promises made, promises kept. 

 

The USA will have it's hands full with China and Mexico.

[cubsfan]

13 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Alliances are funny things.......they work both ways - might be time for say ASML to start shipping the leading edge EUV machines to China again???.....I mean.....Europe went along with American leadership on containing China and hobbled ASML with export controls as per the Trump administrations wishes in 2019.....but I mean in an age of America being an unreliable partner........what exactly is Europe doing trying to contain China on the US's behalf anyway?.....Europe isn't a global hegemon worried about the rise of a rival global hegemon...its the US's existentual mid-life crisis this China-phobia.

 

As we've discussed many time before @cubsfan what lots of the current administration supporters miss the whole time with this little 'wins' is the BIG BIG picture........the old world order (1994 - 2024) was a pretty shitty system, except for all the other systems there could be......what folks forget and its a very traditionally conservative outlook......as shitty as it was.......things can ALWAYS be a whole lot worse......as Trump rips away at the load bearing walls of the global system I dont see a single sign that he has something in mind for what will replace......the international system/order has bias towards anarchy, the post WWII system of alliances was an imperfect balance of power structure but it served us well.....its getting slowly dismantled with nothing coming up behind it.....history suggests that folks only come to appreciate global institutions & alliances again ( however imperfect) after finding out the anarchy that exists without them....we are on the early stages of the path towards learning that brutal lesson again......I hope I have no need to come back to this post again in a number of years to say I told you so.

 

 

 

I always like hearing your opinion - and you were very early right about the Ukraine war and why Ukraine could not win against an entrenched Russia. You called it 2 years ago.

 

However, I do not understand your conclusion. Is the USA out or in on continuing this war?

 

Does this war need to be settled or ramped up?

 

 

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Yes, gents please. Fight among yourself, but entertain me. Maybe we should all contribute some money and have Parsad set up a trust, then lever up to buy a small country. Why not actively participate in geopolitics?

 

[Luke]

35 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Alliances are funny things.......they work both ways - might be time for say ASML to start shipping the leading edge EUV machines to China again???.....I mean.....Europe went along with American leadership on containing China and hobbled ASML with export controls as per the Trump administrations wishes in 2019.....but I mean in an age of America being an unreliable partner........what exactly is Europe doing trying to contain China on the US's behalf anyway?.....Europe isn't a global hegemon worried about the rise of a rival global hegemon...its the US's existentual mid-life crisis this China-phobia.

 

As we've discussed many time before @cubsfan what lots of the current administration supporters miss the whole time with this little 'wins' is the BIG BIG picture........the old world order (1994 - 2024) was a pretty shitty system, except for all the other systems there could be......what folks forget and its a very traditionally conservative outlook......as shitty as it was.......things can ALWAYS be a whole lot worse......as Trump rips away at the load bearing walls of the global system I dont see a single sign that he has something in mind for what will replace......the international system/order has bias towards anarchy, the post WWII system of alliances was an imperfect balance of power structure but it served us well.....its getting slowly dismantled with nothing coming up behind it.....history suggests that folks only come to appreciate global institutions & alliances again ( however imperfect) after finding out the anarchy that exists without them....we are on the early stages of the path towards learning that brutal lesson again......I hope I have no need to come back to this post again in a number of years to say I told you so.

 

 

There is a new world order emerging, look at China/Russia/BRICS. I dont think there will be anarchy, just not a US dominated order anymore  

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Also, the EU should come out of the notion that it's problems are the world's problems and the world's problems are not it's problems. This isn't the colonial era, nobody owes them anything. Fight your own wars. I don't see why any country should be willing to foot the bill for a war that doesn't affect their taxpayers at the cost of the said taxpayers.

[Luke]

I still cant believe this is live on youtube. This discussion between trump and selensky...insane

[Luke]

1 minute ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Also, the EU should come out of the notion that it's problems are the world's problems and the world's problems are not it's problems. This isn't the colonial era, nobody owes them anything. Fight your own wars. I don't see why any country should be willing to foot the bill for a war that doesn't affect their taxpayers at the cost of the said taxpayers.

Well, there are arguments for helping suffering countries but in this case intervention is not smart anymore.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

4 minutes ago, Luke said:

I still cant believe this is live on youtube. This discussion between trump and selensky...insane

 

Shitshow. Diplomacy should be an affair, hide it from the mistress. Why would you air it out in the public, when you don't even have strong points to begin with. Came off as very immature, not something a president should be doing. The only winners in a war are those who play for both sides.

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

The USA is turning into an imperialist power. @kab60 Mark my words, but Trump is serious about Greenland too. He want wants to be the president who makes America larger on terms of land mass.

 

Imperialist powers think in terms of land mass first and # of people second . And imperialist likes to deal with other imperialist who think the same way. Thats now an imperialist trifecta of China, Russia, USA and soon India I think.

 

Those not on above list (Europe, Canada etc ) need to do something or they become colonies to be pushed around.

 

What a time to be alive.

 

 

Time for me to start reading this book, and move it to the front of the pile.

 

 

[Xerxes]

 

[Ulti]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/28/opinion/trump-zelensky.html
 

Thomas Friedman on todays event

[Sweet]

11 minutes ago, Ulti said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/28/opinion/trump-zelensky.html
 

Thomas Friedman on todays event

Can’t believe I read something from the NYT and actually agree lol

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

However, I do not understand your conclusion. Is the USA out or in on continuing this war?

 

Does this war need to be settled or ramped up?

 

The war needs to exited....on this you and I agree...... it was foolish to walk away from whatever settlement was available in Istanbul in 2022.....and more foolish still to not attempt a peace settlement in the early innings of the ramped up Ukraine offensive that saw their early victories in Kherson & Kharkiv.

 

The upperhand (artillery/manpower) is so clearly with the Russian's now that its not even funny. When you negotiate with an enemy that has the upperhand such as the Russian's do - you must attempt to show them a version of the future that amounts to HELL for them...they need to understand how things can get so much worse for them.

 

What Trump did today was create a disincentive for peace because what he really showed Putin is a version of the future where things can get so much better for the Russian side......a version of the future where the relationship between Zelensky and Trump becomes so toxic that the US simply cuts off aid to Ukraine.

 

I mean he has the upperhand on the battlefield..........and his enemies....the US-EU-Ukraine....are literally at each other's throats on TV...and about to go into a trade war in a month or so........why the hell would he stop the offensive now?

 

We'll see.....Trump didn't advance the end to the Ukrainian war today...he precipitated its continuation....it's been a massive own goal for the West & Trump's stated aim of ending this....and I sincerely hope I get proved wrong on that front.

 

Short version - after today you'd really have to ask yourself  @cubsfan - why the hell would Putin negotiate now when his enemies are at each other's throats in about every way it's possible to be?

 

Edited 3 hours ago by changegonnacome

[Ghost]

I gotta ask if Europe steps up in place of USA, I would see that as taking us another step forward to a full out European war. 

 

I do not pretend to be a history buff but...German took a bunch of land...then a whole lot of people died taking it back...history does not repeat itself but it rhymes

[cubsfan]

8 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

The war needs to exited....on this you and I agree...... it was foolish to walk away from whatever settlement was available in Istanbul in 2022.....and more foolish still to not attempt a peace settlement in the early innings of the ramped up Ukraine offensive that saw their early victories in Kherson & Kharkiv.

 

The upperhand (artillery/manpower) is so clearly with the Russian's now that its not even funny. When you negotiate with an enemy that has the upperhand such as the Russian's do - you must attempt to show them a version of the future that amounts to HELL for them...they need to understand how things can get so much worse for them.

 

What Trump did today was create a disincentive for peace because what he really showed Putin is a version of the future where things can get so much better for the Russian side......a version of the future where the relationship between Zelensky and Trump becomes so toxic that the US simply cuts off aid to Ukraine.

 

I mean he has the upperhand on the battlefield..........and his enemies....the US-EU-Ukraine....are literally at each other's throats on TV...and about to go into a trade war in a month or so........why the hell would he stop the offensive now?

 

We'll see.....Trump didn't advance the end to the Ukrainian war today...he precipitated its continuation....it's been a massive own goal for the West & Trump's stated aim of ending this....and I sincerely hope I get proved wrong on that front.

 

Short version - after today you'd really have to ask yourself  @cubsfan - why the hell would Putin negotiate now when his enemies are at each other's throats in about every way it's possible to be?

 

 

Thank you. You have one of the best minds on this conflict. You were right on with the artillery advantages and failed offensive 2 years ago.

 

Personally, I don't think Trump has yet to show his teeth to Putin. It may come to that. And that's when things get really ugly.

 

Regardless, the Europeans need to quite fucking around and get serious about this guy

[Ghost]

Am I wrong...it sure seems that Trump and Vance are pro Putin?

[changegonnacome]

7 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

I don't think Trump has yet to show his teeth to Putin.

 

I'm sorry @cubsfan Trump has defacto capitulated publicly.....he did so re:Ukraine during the campaign as a popular America First political strategy....but I really expected a change in messaging once he was in office to actually HELP bring about his desired outcome of ending the war.....escalate to de-escalate type thing...what we've got is capiltuation which doesn't as I've laid out advance the peace.......this tack he's taking is really counterproductive to his own agenda.

 

Guess you'd say he's crazy like a fox...playing 4D chess......I hope you right....what I've seen so far on both the micro level (Ukraine-Russia) and on the macro level (NATO / EU Canada / Mexico Trade War/ / UN / Israel - Gaza) is simply crazy.....I'm failing to see an overarching plan that optimizes for the US's safety, security, prosperity and economic dominance over the next hundred. I'm seeing a guy roll the dice on whats worked astoundingly well for the USA over the last hundred years (if you go and look at the relative out-performance of this country versus everywhere else on Earth!).

[james22]

 

[james22]

[james22]

 

[Ulti]

https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/28/media/tass-russian-state-media-oval-office/index.html

[Sweet]

31 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/28/politics/volodymyr-zelensky-thankful-us-fact-check/index.html

 

CNN found 33 times that Zelenskyy has thanked America in a couple of hours.

 

I repeat… ‘they were fine people’ ‘horse tranquilizer‘ CNN are finding this one easy!

 

Yet JD Vance can’t remember a single instance?

Vance actually made a fool of himself today.

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Sweet

[Luke]

20 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Guess you'd say he's crazy like a fox...playing 4D chess......I hope you right....what I've seen so far on both the micro level (Ukraine-Russia) and on the macro level (NATO / EU Canada / Mexico Trade War/ / UN / Israel - Gaza) is simply crazy.....I'm failing to see an overarching plan that optimizes for the US's safety, security, prosperity and economic dominance over the next hundred. I'm seeing a guy roll the dice on whats worked astoundingly well for the USA over the last hundred years (if you go and look at the relative out-performance of this country versus everywhere else on Earth!).

I think Trump and Vance are smarter than people give them credit. They are realists, whats in here for the US? They delivered billions of USD for 0 gains and a stalemate with ukraine slowly losing anyways. The mantra since 3 years always was "we need more weapons" "we need this kind of weapon and that will be the gamechanger", nothing of that changed the slowly but sure outcome of ukraine losing everything. What do you want to give them when they lack manpower and their infrastructure is destroyed? Even with better rockets, russia will immediately up the gear and escalate into destroying more critical infrastructure before those taurus weapons arrive, it will be public anyways.

 

There is no Win here for ukraine or the west, not without significant risks and significantly more men cost. Suppose ukraine could get the territories back with the support of Nato troops by the US and Germany, how many would have to come? Germany has 300k active soldiers, is 100k enough? What stops russia from using tactical nukes in that case because then russia is threatened on a different level with direct war against nato. What would that bring us and the US? That ukraine has more regions? Why would we sacrifice so much money and soldiers for that?

 

The hitler analogy is ridiculous because russia lacks the manpower to do anything against nato countries and can be disregarded.

 

Trump and Vance want a settlement now, it was enough. Selensky will always try again and again but he needs a clear resounding "NO", you have no cards, get a deal and lets bring the world together again.

 

Thats diplomacy, while not ideal, it will save lifes and bring enough calm to find a position where both security interests from russia and ukraine are guaranteed.