Political Posts

[Blake Hampton]

Buffett indicator is at 233%. Dot-com bubble peak was 190%.

 

Now, imagine the outcome if the future consists of vastly higher inflation and interest rates.

[Blake Hampton]

“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

 

What exactly are you getting for today's prices? Or is the fact that prices have risen consistently in the recent past all that really matters?

 

Maybe this time is different.

[Blake Hampton]

If you buy the market today, I’m certain it’ll go up quite a lot in nominal terms.

 

In real terms, however, you’re going to get absolutely fucking crushed.

[Gregmal]

Imagine paying what amounts to 25x for an asset that is guaranteed to lose value over time?
 

That’s at best what the case is for cash right now. You don’t need the past to be different or the same or whatever other thing you may need it to be. And good forbid you get inflation lmfao 

 

Or imagine waiting here for a pullback and getting 10%, ah, so you’re back to where things were a few weeks ago. Or 20-25%, ah now you’re back to where we were barely a year ago with the Liberation Day hysteria. But you have absolutely nothing to show for that except a wasted year. 

[Blake Hampton]

1 minute ago, Gregmal said:

Imagine paying what amounts to 25x for an asset that is guaranteed to lose value over time?
 

That’s at best what the case is for cash right now. You don’t need the past to be different or the same or whatever other thing you may need it to be. And good forbid you get inflation lmfao 

 

Or imagine waiting here for a pullback and getting 10%, ah, so you’re back to where things were a few weeks ago. Or 20-25%, ah now you’re back to where we were barely a year ago with the Liberation Day hysteria. But you have absolutely nothing to show for that except a wasted year. 

 

Imagine investing everything right before the economy has a stroke, and then having to rely on the government to save your ass.

That describes the entire U.S. economy

And what happened in the stock market around Liberation Day was nothing. What really should have scared people was what was happening in the bond market

But you wouldn't know anything about that.

[Gregmal]

2 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

But you wouldn't know anything about that.

I know you think that every time CNBC tells you that rates ticked up a small amount, that the system is on the brink of implosion, and there’s nothing that’s gonna change your mind on that; but you still haven’t answered the question everyone’s been asking you. How’s this attitude of yours worked out, from a returns perspective, over the past 1/3/5 years?

[cubsfan]

34 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Buffett indicator is at 233%. Dot-com bubble peak was 190%.

 

Now, imagine the outcome if the future consists of vastly higher inflation and interest rates.

 

The critical factor you avoid mentioning is that the Dot.com bubble featured hundreds of companies that made no money - so it was unsustainable, unbeknownst to idiots like me and others.

 

This massive bubble in tech features companies that are cash-flow monsters.

 

Big difference.

[73 Reds]

17 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

Imagine investing everything right before the economy has a stroke, and then having to rely on the government to save your ass.

That describes the entire U.S. economy

And what happened in the stock market around Liberation Day was nothing. What really should have scared people was what was happening in the bond market

But you wouldn't know anything about that.

Blake, why don't you consider a modified version of what Buffett has proscribed for his surviving spouse?  He has stated that he recommends 90% allocated into an S&P 500 index fund and the other 10% in treasuries.  His surviving spouse is old.  You are young and could allocate the same 90% into an S&P 500 index fund, and the other 10% into whatever you think makes sense at the time.  Even if your 10% doesn't outperform bonds, you'll still do OK rather than worry about current economic factors that in the long run are meaningless. 

Edited May 4 by 73 Reds
word

[Gregmal]

5 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Blake, why don't you consider a modified version of what Buffett has proscribed for his surviving spouse?  He has stated that he recommends 90% allocated into an S&P 500 index fund and the other 10% in bonds.  His surviving spouse is old.  You are young and could allocate the same 90% into an S&P 500 index fund, and the other 10% into whatever you think makes sense at the time.  Even if your 10% doesn't outperform bonds, you'll still do OK rather than worry about current economic factors that in the long run are meaningless. 

What’s crazy is extrapolating his rhetoric for the past few years and overlapping it with some of what little he’s said he owns, it’s near impossible to conclude anything other than that the results have been absolutely disastrous. And what’s worse, is given some of the things he claims to believe, none of these things will allow his results to get any better, even if you get the 10/20/30% opportunities. 
 

I feel so bad for younger people who’s investment return vehicle is structurally broken, and yet they are thoroughly convinced it’s a Gulfstream. 
 

Like fuck, even if you have half a brain and some cash now, why wouldn’t you at least buy some Berkshire lol?

Edited May 4 by Gregmal

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, Gregmal said:

Like fuck, even if you have half a brain and some cash now, why wouldn’t you at least buy some Berkshire lol?

 

Exactly - looks like low hanging fruit and sitting right in front of your face..... unless of course, you are into market timing.

[dealraker]

5 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Imagine paying what amounts to 25x for an asset that is guaranteed to lose value over time?
 

That’s at best what the case is for cash right now. You don’t need the past to be different or the same or whatever other thing you may need it to be. And good forbid you get inflation lmfao 

 

Or imagine waiting here for a pullback and getting 10%, ah, so you’re back to where things were a few weeks ago. Or 20-25%, ah now you’re back to where we were barely a year ago with the Liberation Day hysteria. But you have absolutely nothing to show for that except a wasted year. 

Greg, you and I have almost identical investment models.  What I find somewhat perplexing though is how much emphasis and "valuation" you put on tiny market moves based on politics.  Mr. Market in my view is programmed presently to "escalate" his hopes and dreams and I do not doubt for one instance that he could take us vastly higher.

 

But I'd be willing, quite willing if I were a gambler, to place a bet that at some point more than a few years from now--- that Mr. Market revisits today's prices if not lower.  That view mind you isn't about business valuations, it is about who and what is propelling today's path upwards and what kind of business and business value can sustain itself over change.

 

I recently bought huge amounts of Amazon, Broadcom, and Advance Micro Devices in the tax free account and I wrote that here when I bought them.  But the AVGO and AMD choices are based on completely unsustainable cyclical movements in my view, but very powerful while they last.  Any day you go into the office and your business just got an offer for twice yesterday's offer?  Well, you might consider such an era not particularly sustainable.

 

Amazon and friends, even those of a different color (read Fairfax etc) type businesses---- they are likely sustainable in my view.  But much of today's market valuations will come and go on hard, harder, and the hardest ever abrupt cyclical charge and retreat - and then repeat - themes.

 

To me there are countless unsustainable things happening today, some related to lust for Trump and his widely reported business expertise magic and some not related to anything above basic human stupidity.  But any market move to me such as since lib day is one I'd say is what Buffett mentioned, "Nothing at all."

 

Trade it is my view, but don't expect not to revisit it.  I may be wrong but I have a very high probability in my thinking as to a hard reset, much-much-much harder than liberation day.  That may be after a 50% rise though.

 

Mr. Market?  I think Mr. Market is going to reflect Trump on one of his endless night time tweeting episodes, he will be completely unhinged.  

 

As you know, just my morning ramble...don't take me too seriously.  

 

Late on Friday night, President Donald J. Trump took to social media. At 11:03 he posted an AI-generated image of himself, alongside Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum, all shirtless, along with an unidentifiable woman in a bikini, appearing to be relaxing in a swimming pool. But the “swimming pool” was the reflecting pool in front of the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, D.C.

Then, at 11:04, Trump posted an image of First Lady Melania Trump grinning at the press conference Trump held after the incident at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, when he said that incident proved he needed his proposed ballroom for his security.

Then, at 11:13, Trump posted an image of House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), who is Black, holding a baseball bat. The caption calls Jeffries “low IQ,” “a THUG,” and “a danger to our Country.”

Then, at 11:15, he posted an image of himself smiling and holding six wild cards from the game Uno. The caption read, “I HAVE ALL THE CARDS.”

Then, at 11:22, he posted a profile image of himself in gold.

Then, at 11:26, he posted an image showing him standing near Mt. Rushmore, with the angle arranged to make his head the fifth sculpture on the mountain, so from left to right they were George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt, Abraham Lincoln, and Donald Trump.

Then, at 11:32, he posted an image of himself and the first lady.

Then, at 11:37, he posted an image of himself and King Charles III.

Then, at 11:40, he posted an image of what appeared to be the reflecting pool full of algae next to one that appeared to be the reflecting pool clean and with a bright blue color. Above the dirty image was the label “Hussein Obama,” and below it, the caption “Photo taken Sept[ember] 29, 2012”; the clean one was labeled with “Trump” and “Coming Soon.” Over the two together, the caption read: “This is what our Country was before, and after, “TRUMP!”

Then, at 11:41, he posted an AI image of the reflecting pool appearing bright blue, under the caption “American Flag Blue.”

Then, at 11:45, he posted another AI image of the reflecting pool appearing bright blue under the caption “American Flag Blue.”

It was some 43 minutes.

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

What’s crazy is extrapolating his rhetoric for the past few years and overlapping it with some of what little he’s said he owns, it’s near impossible to conclude anything other than that the results have been absolutely disastrous. And what’s worse, is given some of the things he claims to believe, none of these things will allow his results to get any better, even if you get the 10/20/30% opportunities. 
 

I feel so bad for younger people who’s investment return vehicle is structurally broken, and yet they are thoroughly convinced it’s a Gulfstream. 
 

Like fuck, even if you have half a brain and some cash now, why wouldn’t you at least buy some Berkshire lol?

Yep.  Sanjeev made it real easy for almost anyone - Berkshire and Fairfax.  Highly diversified portfolios, great management and cultures, optionality for future growth and if you really want to get picky, select a valuation metric below which you add shares and above which you sit pat.  Could it be any simpler than that?  

[Gregmal]

2 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Greg, you and I have almost identical investment models.  What I find somewhat perplexing though is how much emphasis and "valuation" you put on tiny market moves based on politics.  Mr. Market in my view is programmed presently to "escalate" his hopes and dreams and I do not doubt for one instance that he could take us vastly higher.

 

But I'd be willing, quite willing if I were a gambler, to place a bet that at some point more than a few years from now--- that Mr. Market revisits today's prices if not lower.  That view mind you isn't about business valuations, it is about who and what is propelling today's path upwards and what kind of business and business value can sustain itself over change.

I do trade smaller bits and pieces on the hysteria rollercoaster, but by and large, I’m indifferent to it. 
 

I was however, laughing my ass off reading about how Buffett was quoted as saying this isn’t a great environment and it’s just gambling. One because let’s face it, technically for somebody who’s statistical investment horizon is at best maybe one year at this point, so what? But also because, as you allude to above, there’s utterly tons of great, durable, long term businesses to buy right now, if you look outside of the headline grabbers. Again, hey Warren…what’s it say about what you left your boys in Omaha, if even with $400b in cash and a 52 week low you have no interest in adding your own shares?

[gfp]

10 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Again, hey Warren…what’s it say about what you left your boys in Omaha, if even with $400b in cash and a 52 week low you have no interest in adding your own shares?

 

Repurchases are very likely to resume tomorrow FWIW.

[dealraker]

19 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I do trade smaller bits and pieces on the hysteria rollercoaster, but by and large, I’m indifferent to it. 
 

I was however, laughing my ass off reading about how Buffett was quoted as saying this isn’t a great environment and it’s just gambling. One because let’s face it, technically for somebody who’s statistical investment horizon is at best maybe one year at this point, so what? But also because, as you allude to above, there’s utterly tons of great, durable, long term businesses to buy right now, if you look outside of the headline grabbers. Again, hey Warren…what’s it say about what you left your boys in Omaha, if even with $400b in cash and a 52 week low you have no interest in adding your own shares?

I thought his reference was more of a two faced market.  But Warren got old and people vastly underestimate the slowdown and less aware part of aging.  I know it full well, I fight it hard and force myself to update.  But the truth is it simply slowly fails to work.  

[Gregmal]

1 minute ago, dealraker said:

I thought his reference was more of a two faced market.  But Warren got old and people vastly underestimate the slowdown and less aware part of aging.  I know it full well, I fight it hard and force myself to update.  But the truth is it simply slowly fails to work.  

Yeah….im not sure why but one of the most potent quotes I’ve ever heard was some years back, Tiger Woods said something like “Father Time is undefeated”. It’s always stuck with me.

[Lazarus]

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

Indeed, with a long enough time horizon nothing beats owning great businesses.  The chart also demonstrates that with a long enough time horizon trying to time the markets is hardly worthwhile for mere mortals.  

 

The real irony is that Blake isn't open-minded enough to recognize those lessons in the very chart he posted.

 

Blake - I'll offer you a well-intended word of advice (which you are going to ignore because you think you know it all): stop being such a pessimist, stop trying to time the market, and start DCA into index funds with the vast bulk (or all) of your investment money. Set it and forget it, and you'll eventually be rich or at least very comfortable. You have a long investment horizon ahead of you so just get the snowball started. If you have super bad luck and the markets crash near term, it doesn't matter - just keep DCA in and view the crashes as a chance to buy more at cheaper prices.

 

You are a pessimist. I've seen you on this board for a few years screaming that the sky is falling. Eventually you'll be right but you'll probably still avoid buying since you'll think the market will fall further still. Blind optimism pays in investing over the long run, as reckless as it seems. Look at your graph: the markets went up doing WW2 even though the very fabric of society was at risk.  

 

[LC]

I appreciate all forms of pushback but I'll echo cubs' suggestion:

 

Berkshire has to be one of the most risk-averse investments: diversified, tons of 'old economy' stuff, tons of cash on the balance sheet. And it's reasonably priced right now. 

 

Even if we all accept Blake's position that the SP500 is totally overvalued, wouldn't Berkshire be a great alternative that is better than cash? 

[Gregmal]

Yea smart guys rely their whole lives on grades validating their worth. They go through the system in school not just seeking out As, but 100% marks. It's the scorecard that they thrive on. Then some of them get to the stock market, and for whatever reasons, and not just stupid short term ones, but for extended periods of time, produce results that any monkey can conclude are rubbish. Total slop. If someone handed me a report card where the trailing 3-5 years of returns resembles holding cash, being short, etc...the response would likely be "WTF is this garbage and what are you doing????"....At a minimum, it would support the idea that a "strategic review" is warranted. Not, "status quo".

[73 Reds]

9 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yea smart guys rely their whole lives on grades validating their worth. They go through the system in school not just seeking out As, but 100% marks. It's the scorecard that they thrive on. Then some of them get to the stock market, and for whatever reasons, and not just stupid short term ones, but for extended periods of time, produce results that any monkey can conclude are rubbish. Total slop. If someone handed me a report card where the trailing 3-5 years of returns resembles holding cash, being short, etc...the response would likely be "WTF is this garbage and what are you doing????"....At a minimum, it would support the idea that a "strategic review" is warranted. Not, "status quo".

Successful people can admit when they are wrong and learn from their mistakes.  The most successful people I have ever known (including 2 billionaires) were lousy students in school and largely self-taught.

[Castanza]

On 5/2/2026 at 2:25 PM, Blake Hampton said:

It's being driven by a sense of enormous inequality and how systems that define our lives (education, real estate, healthcare, labor markets) are increasingly broken.

 

The young right now are facing hardships that many older people fail to understand. I hear their arguments all the time, and many of them make very little logical sense.

 

There are some issues no doubt, but you cannot continue to try and put a square peg in a round hole. The young that choose to recognize the world is changing and adapt their order of operations to the traditional approach of going from adolescence to being a successful productive adult. 

 

Housing, Education and Labor Markets (jobs) are not guarantees. Nobody owes you any of those things because you took out 100k is student loans. You're covered by your parents healthcare until you're what 26? If you're not getting life figured out by then well I'd argue that it's your fault. 

 

Things are difficult no doubt. I would argue for the younger generation (which I am a part of) a difference between what our generation faces and say boomers is that necessities are expensive and luxuries are cheap. This creates multiple hurdles and also requires a higher degree of personal financial responsibility. 

 

The sooner you learn "nobody is coming to save you" the better off you will be. There are plenty of great options to become successful out there but the fact is people (youth) are really clinging hard to the traditional cushy route of (HS, College, Party, Gap Years, Vacations, Entry level high paying Job, New Car, Expensive Apartments). 

 

Perhaps people need to re-evaluate what your 20's is supposed to be about and come back to the historical view that your 20's is for grinding now just partying. I keep hearing that the American Dream is Dead! Bullshit! The American Dream has always been earned through blood sweat and tears. Your Grandparents 20's would make the "tough conditions" today seem like a goddamn dream. 

[cubsfan]

30 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Housing, Education and Labor Markets (jobs) are not guarantees. 

 

Things are difficult no doubt.  

 

The sooner you learn "nobody is coming to save you" the better off you will be.  

 

The American Dream has always been earned through blood sweat and tears. Your Grandparents 20's would make the "tough conditions" today seem like a goddamn dream. 

 

Not to sound like a Hallmark card - but this is a wonderful viewpoint. People from all over the world have been breaking down the door to get into this country - because they get it - and they are not stopping.

 

In most cases, you will make your own luck, but there are no guarantees except your willingness to give it 100%.

[John Hjorth]

3 hours ago, Gregmal said:

It's pretty stunning one can look at that chart and arrive at any conclusion other than owning stocks is the way to go. Good lord. 

 

I wholeheartedly agree with Greg [ @Gregmal ] here.

 

3 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

The last two recessions nearly resulted in financial collapse. ...

 

Where do you get that from, Blake [ @Blake Hampton ]? Do you here consider the 2020 event a recession?

[Malmqky]

It's always nearly.

 

How many times did the world nearly end during the Cold War?

 

The world is held together by duct tape and glue.

[Red Lion]

3 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

Buffett indicator is at 233%. Dot-com bubble peak was 190%.

 

Now, imagine the outcome if the future consists of vastly higher inflation and interest rates.

 

I can imagine that future, but two scenarios I think might be more likely. 
 

1) Adoption of AI provides a headwind to employment numbers and Inflation,  increased corporate productivity and profit margins, and interest rates stay relatively low by historical standards. The commodity noise from the Iran debacle either diminishes or gets baked into a new normal commodity pricing regime. 
 

2) Financial repression / negative real rates like we had post ww2. 
 

I definitely think this is a good time to be a (good) stock picker though. Isn’t it always?