Political Posts

[changegonnacome]

36 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

I think we have a lot more Chamberlain's than Churchills

 

I liked JD Vance line recently he used when asked about his support for the Iran war (given his previous aversion talk to the stupidity of forever wars) and I think its applicable here:

 

"I do think we have to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past,” Vance added. “I also think that we have to avoid overlearning the lessons of the past"

 

Every war hawk since WWII has invoked the Chamberlain appeasement lesson as a rationale for escalation.....I'd posit that folks overlearned the Chamberlain/Hitler lesson.....why?.....cause I dont think people fully understand in the long arc of history what an atypical individual Hitler was, he was a congenital aggressor and that congenital aggressor found himself (unluckily for the world) with a German army that revolutionised warfare through blitzkrieg and so had stunning early military successes and Hitler's appetite for war grew with the eating (not to mention his drug use & delusion). 

 

The point is a subtle one....not every adversary is Hitler. In fact, almost none of them are. The Chamberlain lesson assumes you're always facing a congenital aggressor with a revolutionary military innovation at his fingertips every time. The reality most leaders/countries/regimes are rational actors operating with severe economic, military and domestic political constraints.

 

Chamberlain is actually the correct heuristic for international security interactions. Churchill the wrong one. Put in investing terms the base rate of finding yourself facing a congenital aggressors with revolutionary military capability is extremely low!

 

Edited April 8 by changegonnacome

[Parsad]

Minnesotans aren't only great at fraud, they have the best average credit score in the U.S.!  Ohhhh, Somali's!

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/banking/article/average-credit-score-in-america-by-state-212908597.html

 

 

Guess who has one of the worst average credit scores?  Texas!

 

 

Cheers!

[73 Reds]

3 minutes ago, Parsad said:

Minnesotans aren't only great at fraud, they have the best average credit score in the U.S.!  Ohhhh, Somali's!

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/banking/article/average-credit-score-in-america-by-state-212908597.html

 

 

Guess who has one of the worst average credit scores?  Texas!

 

 

Cheers!

People who steal don't have debt problems.

[changegonnacome]

2 minutes ago, Parsad said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/banking/article/average-credit-score-in-america-by-state-212908597.html

 

Great map!

[Parsad]

1 minute ago, 73 Reds said:

People who steal don't have debt problems.

 

They usually don't have credit cards in their names either.  A lot of shit thrown Minnesotan's ways in the last year.  

 

Maybe a teeny bit of exaggeration by the MAGA nutjobs and Trump?  I mean there's more fraud coming out Trump's butt than there probably was in all of Minnesota!

 

Cheers!

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, Parsad said:

 

They usually don't have credit cards in their names either.  A lot of shit thrown Minnesotan's ways in the last year.  

 

Maybe a teeny bit of exaggeration by the MAGA nutjobs and Trump?  I mean there's more fraud coming out Trump's butt than there probably was in all of Minnesota!

 

Cheers!

Actually most Minnesotans are salt of the earth folks.  Its always the bad apples that spoil it for the rest.  Along with politics.

[Parsad]

3 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

People who steal don't have debt problems.

 

Also, Trump had a crapload of debt problems over the years...and he wrote The Art of the Steal!  Cheers!

 

[73 Reds]

Just now, Parsad said:

 

Also, Trump had a crapload of debt problems over the years...and he wrote The Art of the Steal!  Cheers!

 

We could have an entirely new discussion about the value (or uselessness) of the credit industry.  Some of us older folks remember when credit could be obtained from your neighborhood bank or lending institution who knew you and the community.  

[Parsad]

Just now, 73 Reds said:

Actually most Minnesotans are salt of the earth folks.  Its always the bad apples that spoil it for the rest.  Along with politics.

 

I agree!  My uncle and first cousins are Minnesotans.  They've lived in Minneapolis for 40 years! 

 

He's a professor at the University of Minnesota...double PhD, MSc, BSc!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

Just now, 73 Reds said:

We could have an entirely new discussion about the value (or uselessness) of the credit industry.  Some of us older folks remember when credit could be obtained from your neighborhood bank or lending institution who knew you and the community.  

 

Oh, I remember that and I'm probably somewhat younger than you.  You actually would have to sit down with the manager and apply for credit.  They would grant it based on your application, history and business. 

 

I used to also go in with my father whenever he went to see his bank manager...a relationship that lasted for nearly 30 years from when my father first had to borrow money to bury his own father (I wasn't born yet) to the multiple properties he bought over decades.  Even after my father died over 30 years ago, we still are friends with his bank manager and he wrote us a 7 page letter when my father died back in 1991...we still have it!  That relationship/friendship with our family is now over 60 years old and the manager retired from banking just 2 years ago after a 60 year career!

 

But it was much harder to get credit then.  I didn't get my first credit card till my first day of university...they practically were handing applications out to all of the students as you picked up your books and schedule!  I'm sure many students, including myself, used it recklessly at that time.  I had a couple of tough lessons with credit cards when I was younger.  For the last 20 years, I've never paid a nickel of interest, never carried a balance past the due date, and have no debt other than my small mortgage at a low interest rate.  

 

Cheers!

[73 Reds]

4 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Oh, I remember that and I'm probably somewhat younger than you.  You actually would have to sit down with the manager and apply for credit.  They would grant it based on your application, history and business. 

 

I used to also go in with my father whenever he went to see his bank manager...a relationship that lasted for nearly 30 years from when my father first had to borrow money to bury his own father (I wasn't born yet) to the multiple properties he bought over decades.  Even after my father died over 30 years ago, we still are friends with his bank manager and he wrote us a 7 page letter when my father died back in 1991...we still have it!  That relationship/friendship with our family is now over 60 years old and the manager retired from banking just 2 years ago after a 60 year career!

 

But it was much harder to get credit then.  I didn't get my first credit card till my first day of university...they practically were handing applications out to all of the students as you picked up your books and schedule!  I'm sure many students, including myself, used it recklessly at that time.  I had a couple of tough lessons with credit cards when I was younger.  For the last 20 years, I've never paid a nickel of interest, never carried a balance past the due date, and have no debt other than my small mortgage at a low interest rate.  

 

Cheers!

Credit exists in many forms other than credit cards.  Rent an apartment, buy or lease a vehicle, take out a mortgage, carry any other form of revolving debt, or have utility accounts among many other things all generate a credit score.  But the futility of the credit industry is responsible for a good portion of my personal net worth since I'm a much better lender than investor.  And I've never once run a credit check on any of my borrowers; there are much better and more valuable ways to assess someone's creditworthiness than a credit score and even the accompanying report.  Unfortunately large institutions have to take the easy route, which creates plenty of business for folks like me. 

[changegonnacome]

As predicted......Israel escalates in Lebanon to jackknife Trumps Iran peace deal.

"Iran halts Hormuz traffic after Israel attacks Lebanon"

 

 

 

Meanwhile.....JD Vance is in Hunguray campaigning for Victor Orbans re-election but talking about EU interference in the Hungarian election

 

 

 

 

 

[Parsad]

1 minute ago, 73 Reds said:

Credit exists in many forms other than credit cards.  Rent an apartment, buy or lease a vehicle, take out a mortgage, carry any other form of revolving debt, or have utility accounts among many other things all generate a credit score.  But the futility of the credit industry is responsible for a good portion of my personal net worth since I'm a much better lender than investor.  And I've never once run a credit check on any of my borrowers; there are much better and more valuable ways to assess someone's creditworthiness than a credit score and even the accompanying report.  Unfortunately large institutions have to take the easy route, which creates plenty of business for folks like me. 

 

Yup.  I have all of those except I've never rented an apartment...but i carry no balances on any other than the mortgage.  My credit score is well over 800.  

 

I've lent money to other businesses through my businesses, but never on a personal basis really.  We always based it on the business and also did not run a credit check.  We were always first in line as a secured creditor.  If a bank or other institution was first in line, we did not invest. 

 

Cheers!

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

 

As I mentioned a couple of pages ago.....the point of the incursion and occupation of Southern Lebanon at the start of the Iran-US-Israel war becomes clear.......the US may be able to dictate to Israel what happens in the Iranian theatre but Israel is has full jurisdiction over its own mini-war in Southern Lebanon where it is in total control of the escalation ladder, the issue of course is that Iran-Hezobolah are tied together and as long as Israel occupies Southern Lebanon, Hezobolah will attack Israeli forces..in effect Southern Lebanon is mechanism by which Bibi continually gets to say that Israel is still under attack by Iran (just via proxies).....Southern Lebanon is Bibi's poison pill or veto on any deal that might get done in Hyderabad.

 

You almost make it sound like Israel wants this war with Hezbollah.

 

Of course, it complicates things - alliances are rarely perfect. The US does not want to be in a ground war with Iran. Israel does not want to be threatened by Iran or Iranian proxies.  

 

So objectives will differ - and good allies will work through the issues.

[Castanza]

58 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

I liked JD Vance line recently he used when asked about his support for the Iran war (given his previous aversion talk to the stupidity of forever wars) and I think its applicable here:

 

"I do think we have to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past,” Vance added. “I also think that we have to avoid overlearning the lessons of the past"

 

Every war hawk since WWII has invoked the Chamberlain appeasement lesson as a rationale for escalation.....I'd posit that folks overlearned the Chamberlain/Hitler lesson.....why?.....cause I dont think people fully understand in the long arc of history what an atypical individual Hitler was, he was a congenital aggressor and that congenital aggressor found himself (unluckily for the world) with a German army that revolutionised warfare through blitzkrieg and so had stunning early military successes and Hitler's appetite for war grew with the eating (not to mention his drug use & delusion). 

 

The point is a subtle one....not every adversary is Hitler. In fact, almost none of them are. The Chamberlain lesson assumes you're always facing a congenital aggressor with a revolutionary military innovation at his fingertips every time. The reality most leaders/countries/regimes are rational actors operating with severe economic, military and domestic political constraints.

 

Chamberlain is actually the correct heuristic for international security interactions. Churchill the wrong one. Put in investing terms the base rate of finding yourself facing a congenital aggressors with revolutionary military capability is extremely low!

 

 

I'm not sure Chamberlain or Churchill are relevant when dealing with terrorist states. We've known for 20 years that terrorism is here to stay. The question is, how do you keep it at arms length? The question the west and developed world need to answer. Economics does not matter to ISRG...they do not need billions to bring the world to a standstill. Terrorism IS effective and the cost to those carrying it out can be little...

[73 Reds]

7 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Yup.  I have all of those except I've never rented an apartment...but i carry no balances on any other than the mortgage.  My credit score is well over 800.  

 

I've lent money to other businesses through my businesses, but never on a personal basis really.  We always based it on the business and also did not run a credit check.  We were always first in line as a secured creditor.  If a bank or other institution was first in line, we did not invest. 

 

Cheers!

Yeah, first positions are always necessary unless you are adequately compensated for the risk of an inferior position.  I'll sometimes cross collateralize a second piece of encumbered RE with a 1st mortgage for a borrower just to have some additional protection.   If the borrower squawks and inferior financing is not prohibited by the existing 1st mortgage, I'll walk.

Edited April 8 by 73 Reds
word

[Parsad]

1 minute ago, cubsfan said:

 

You almost make it sound like Israel wants this war with Hezbollah.

 

Of course, it complicates things - alliances are rarely perfect. The US does not want to be in a ground war with Iran. Israel does not want to be threatened by Iran or Iranian proxies.  

 

So objectives will differ - and good allies will work through the issues.

 

Yeah, but you have to admit...we all knew one or both of these fuckers (Bibi/Regime) would try and get a last shot in or could risk any potential agreement.  I mean, Greg probably smelled it last week it was so obvious!  He probably bet on it last night and has gone long the VIX!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

Just now, 73 Reds said:

Yeah, first positions are always necessary unless you are adequately compensated for the risk of an inferior position.  I'll sometimes cross collateralize a second piece of RE with a 1st mortgage for a borrower just to have some additional protection.   If the borrower squawks and inferior financing is not prohibited by the 1st mortgage, I'll walk.

 

Yeah, that's smart...I think that's a hell of a lot safer.  Especially with how notorious banks are about being first in line and when they cease a property.  Cheers!

[changegonnacome]

20 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

You almost make it sound like Israel wants this war with Hezbollah.

 

@cubsfan Israel started preemptively firing on Hezbollah on March 1st to goad them into responding, once they did Israel simultaneously with a deeply complex and expansive mission against Iran decided to launch a full on ground invasion of Lebanon (in response to hostilities Israel started remember). Israel displaced 1.2 million people in doing so and now occupies a huge slug of another country.

 

Just coincidence I guess?

 

I explained to you already.....why Israel wanted THIS particular occupation of Lebanon at this PARTICULAR time. Its about kniving Trumps off ramp and one can argue if a land force was ever required in Iran, Bibi can tell Trump that the IDF has its handful managing Lebanon and so US troops ALONE would need to be heading into Iran.

 

20 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

So objectives will differ - and good allies will work through the issues.

 

Lets see....IMO Bibi is playing for keeps here with Iran.....Trump clearly wants to do a deal and bail.....Bibi is going to do everything in his power to stop that deal occurring and Lebanon is the poison pill he created at the start of this war to give him the means to do that.

 

Trump is the US President.....and a foreign leader is undermining his agenda in Iran.....you seem docile about that.... if it we're Macron or Schultz you'd be having a nervous breakdown right now. Just saying.

Edited April 8 by changegonnacome

[cubsfan]

6 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

@cubsfan Israel started preemptively firing on Hezbollah on March 1st to goad them into responding, once they did Israel simultaneously with a deeply complex and expansive mission against Iran decided to launch a full on ground invasion of Lebanon (in response to hostilities Israel started remember). Israel displaced 1.2 million people in doing so and now occupies a huge slug of another country.

 

Just coincidence I guess?

 

I explained to you already.....why Israel wanted THIS particular occupation of Lebanon at this PARTICULAR time. Its about kniving Trumps off ramp and one can argue if a land force was ever required in Iran, Bibi can tell Trump that the IDF has its handful managing Lebanon and so US troops ALONE would need to be heading into Iran.

 

 

Lets see....IMO Bibi is playing for keeps here with Iran.....Trump clearly wants to do a deal and bail.....Bibi is going to do everything in his power to stop that deal occurring and Lebanon is the poison pill he created at the start of this war to give him the means to do that.

 

Trump is the US President.....and a foreign leader is undermining his agenda in Iran.....you seem docile about that.... if it we're Macron or Schultz you'd be having a nervous breakdown right now. Just saying.

 

Wait a minute - clear something up for me.

 

Are you saying that there has been a "ceasefire" in place between Israel and Hezbollah??

 

Hezbollah attacked Israel in retaliation for killing Kahmenei on Feb 28th. 

 

Why does Israel not have a right to defend themselves?

[changegonnacome]

33 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Wait a minute - clear something up for me.

 

Are you saying that there has been a "ceasefire" in place between Israel and Hezbollah??

 

Hezbollah attacked Israel in retaliation for killing Kahmenei on Feb 28th. 

 

Why does Israel not have a right to defend themselves?

 

Sure - that's an argument for striking Hezbollah military targets as per the usual way.....that is the standard call and response framework forever......Bibi didnt do that......he decided to escalate to the moon by invading and occupying a sovereign country up to the Litani River and displacing 1.2m people. Your acting like Hezbollah rockets coming into Israel is new somehow. Its almost routine.

 

So ask yourself....why now? to invade and occupy Lebanon so aggressively......as I said Bibi built a poison pill with Southern Lebanon to essentially put him in the room in Hyderabad.... brilliant move by the Prime Minister of Israel, on behalf of the people of Israel who want to see the US 'finish the job' in Iran as opposed to slink off home......not so great as OUR President has clearly decided we've done enough now....and thats the central tension here.....OUR President and the American people want this to end.....and a foreign country doesnt want it to end. Lets see what happens.

[Viking]

Is the ceasefire 'agreement' unravelling? Oh, wait... nothing was actually put down on paper. What could possibly go wrong?

 

Edited April 8 by Viking

[Parsad]

3 minutes ago, Viking said:

Is the ceasefire 'agreement' unravelling? Oh, wait... nothing was actually put down on paper. What could possibly go wrong?

 

 

LOL!  Viking...it was an agreement in principle.  Like the saying...you break it, you buy it!    Cheers!

[Gregmal]

lol chicken little 

[DooDiligence]

Seriously, is anyone surprised here?