Political Posts

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

the entire Russian economy has been turned into a war economy geared to support the war.* There are lot of vested interests to keep the war humming. New oligarchs are being created. 

 

Oh sure...many pages back you and discussed this.....Russia views a neutral Ukraine and Belarus as essentially existentially important to its security architecture....once the Iinvasion/coup of Kyiv failed and the West/Ukraine was not willing to agree to Ukrainian non-NATO membership in Istanbul but instead decided to fight on......Russia had no choice but to impose its will by force....the fact that they turned their whole economy into a war machine is the evidence one needs to understand the importance it places on this red line issue....if it weren't red line a simple retreat to the pre-March 2022 borders was an easy de-escalatory route for Russia (& the West) but they chose not to proceed with this instead turning their whole economy on to a war footing.

 

I disagree that Putin will continue to Kyiv once the East falls......conquering and occupying a hostile Western Ukraine is a decades long headache of dissidents, gorilla warfare and revolutions to put down. In short it would be a nightmare for Putin and his successors. Putin is not foolish enough to sign up for whats he watched from afar....the US attempt to occupy a foreign territories for decades in Iraq and then Afghanistan where the base layer of the population despises them. Now I think its possible in a total Ukrainian capitulation that he drives towards Kyiv for a short occupation if he felt that it would lead to a final surrender by Ukraine/Trump & the West that met all Russia's peace terms ......but I think he would ultimately hand it back in a settlement of some sorts rather than occupy it......but your right once the warlords start making bank logic can go out the window marshalling these forces will be a test of Putin's power and control.

 

Edited July 29, 2025 by changegonnacome

[Sweet]

15 hours ago, adesigar said:

 

The far right cult. 

 

I genuinely want to watch this to know what a ‘far-right conservative’ is.  That’s a new term for me.  However it’s 1hr 40min, no chance.

[changegonnacome]

Tariffs will push Procter & Gamble's prices higher, but maker of consumer products is wary of the discounting frenzy- https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250729135/tariffs-will-push-procter-gambles-prices-higher-but-maker-of-consumer-products-is-wary-of-the-discounting-frenzy

 

About what I expected….companies took and wait see approach to tariffs….but the dam is bursting….and tariffs are getting passed through to Joe Sixpack starting about now.

 

Revenue raising, fantasy re-industrialization…..call it what you like…. pushing prices up for everyday consumers is political suicide for the GOP…it’s like they want to be slaughtered at the midterms or something. 

[cubsfan]

Oh shit, now what - no collapse??

 

Gross domestic product grew at an annualized pace of 3% in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a 2.6% increase.

[rogermunibond]

Economy is weakening - real final sales to domestic purchases is declining.  GDP has noise from import surge.  But averaging out over two quarters real GDP closer to 1.2%

 

[changegonnacome]

23 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

50 days.....now 10 or 12 days.......I'm sorry this is totally retarded.......what exactly is Trump going to do in 10 days or 12 days or 50 days or 500 days exactly?

 

I finally figured out why Trump has moved up the Russia deadline....from 50 days to 10 or 12 for no apparent reason..........cause this damn Epstein story wont go away no matter how much he tries to change the narrative.....the Obama treason distraction didn't work......threatening to arrest Oprah and Beyonce didn't work......trade deals haven't worked........

 

I know what will work thinks Trump.....bringing World War III up to the boil with Putin will definitely work.

 

August is a slow news month in D.C......Trump needs a new ball for the media to chase in August, cause if he doesn't they'll be chasing the Epstein ball relentlessly and for some strange reason he is very very afraid of whats in the Epstein files & to that you can add the Maxwell files.....

 

Indeed my base case now is that Ghislaine Maxwell provided the WSJ with access to the 50th birthday book to bring Trump to the heel and to the table as her appeal case is winding its way towards a big fail at the Supreme Court and she knows it....this Trump angle is her last shot at freedom........and you can only say it has worked beautifully......Maxwell just spent two full days with the President's criminal defense attorney (sorry No.2 at the DOJ).

 

Todd Blanche was not down in Florida for two days to find out what Ghilaine knows to prosecute other bad boys on the Epstein list.....he was down there to find out what other compromising material & info she has in the same vain as the 50th book and to figure out her mindset, willingness and strategy she has to use it........and to understand what it might take to get her to stop (commutation/pardon). When you put a scumbag in the White House, I guess you get scummy things - playing footsie with a convicted paedophile is new low that even Clinton didn't get to in his scummy time in office. Ugggh.

 

Edited July 30, 2025 by changegonnacome

[cubsfan]

Yeah , he's terrified. I saw him shaking at today's press conference.

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Oh shit, now what - no collapse??

 

Gross domestic product grew at an annualized pace of 3% in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a 2.6% increase.

 

There was nothing wrong with GDP...even from the Biden economy...until the tariffs made the world shit the bed when Trumpie implemented them!  It's like congratulating someone who shoots himself in the foot, for not shooting himself in the head!    Cheers!

 

[whiskybravo]

2 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

There was nothing wrong with GDP...even from the Biden economy...until the tariffs made the world shit the bed when Trumpie implemented them!  It's like congratulating someone who shoots himself in the foot, for not shooting himself in the head!    Cheers!

 

More like we are going to implement tariffs in an attempt to address an unsustainable global model and there will be consequent short term pain.  Oh, ok no short term pain so far….cool!

Edited July 30, 2025 by whiskybravo

[Parsad]

3 minutes ago, whiskybravo said:

More like we are going to implement tariffs in an attempt to address an unsustainable global model and there will be consequent short term pain.  Oh, ok no short term pain so far….cool!

 

You mean like adding nearly $4T to the national debt and staying in a deficit for another 3 years?  That type of unsustainable model?  And no pain...check the layoffs or closings globally.  Cheers!

[cwericb]

16 minutes ago, whiskybravo said:

More like we are going to implement tariffs in an attempt to address an unsustainable global model and there will be consequent short term pain.  Oh, ok no short term pain so far….cool!

 

Talk about unsustainable ! 

[changegonnacome]

3 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Yeah , he's terrified. I saw him shaking at today's press conference.

 

as much as I like speculating on what he's doing....what I prefer doing is making money off the guy......and to that end....I think Trump (via my Russia/Epstein distraction thesis) is going to make volatility great again in the month of August.....my bets are laid on! Let's see if Donald continues to boost my 2025 returns - he's been my favourite President in many years on this narrow metric.

[whiskybravo]

36 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

You mean like adding nearly $4T to the national debt and staying in a deficit for another 3 years?  That type of unsustainable model?  And no pain...check the layoffs or closings globally.  Cheers!

You put up a graph of GDP.  Today’s news was GDP.  Now you’re switching to debt/deficit.  Global layoffs? From AI, automation, corporate restructuring, etc.  Or are you saying that is due to tariffs?

[Parsad]

35 minutes ago, whiskybravo said:

You put up a graph of GDP.  Today’s news was GDP.  Now you’re switching to debt/deficit.  Global layoffs? From AI, automation, corporate restructuring, etc.  Or are you saying that is due to tariffs?

 

No, what I was saying was that there was nothing wrong with U.S. GDP for the last 3-4 years.  The fantastic 3% GDP announced today is where it's essentially been for 3-4 years.  

 

Layoffs, etc were just in response to you saying there was no pain.  There is real pain in the U.S. economy for middle-lower income people.  The primary relief has been lower gas prices and now some reduction in food prices, but almost everything else is going to go up in price in the next 6-12 months.  Cheers!

[whiskybravo]

3 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

No, what I was saying was that there was nothing wrong with U.S. GDP for the last 3-4 years.  The fantastic 3% GDP announced today is where it's essentially been for 3-4 years.  

 

Layoffs, etc were just in response to you saying there was no pain.  There is real pain in the U.S. economy for middle-lower income people.  The primary relief has been lower gas prices and now some reduction in food prices, but almost everything else is going to go up in price in the next 6-12 months.  Cheers!

Respect.  Just saying everyone expecting economic slowdown and lo and behold decent growth.  The whole point of the current economic strategy is to address the long term pain that middle and lower income people have been experiencing as a result of globalization.

 

[Parsad]

6 minutes ago, whiskybravo said:

Respect.  Just saying everyone expecting economic slowdown and lo and behold decent growth.  The whole point of the current economic strategy is to address the long term pain that middle and lower income people have been experiencing as a result of globalization.

 

 

Oh, I agree with that. I just thought there was another way to do this without all of the dumb panic and still undefined pain to come...just like DOGE.  Needed to be done, but the chainsaw effort, schtick around it and then the depressing end result of like $9B in savings...well! 

 

I still think Buffett's import/export certificates was the ideal way to deal with the problem of the trade imbalances.  But no politician actually truly listens to Buffett.  Cheers!

[Red Lion]

14 minutes ago, Parsad said:

I still think Buffett's import/export certificates was the ideal way to deal with the problem of the trade imbalances.  But no politician actually truly listens to Buffett.  Cheers!

 

Now what if the government were to implement Buffett's idea of trading import/export certificates, and then tax the transaction value of those trades? This would effectively boil down to a tariff which toggles up or down with the trade deficit and might not piss off our trading partners. 

[changegonnacome]

30 minutes ago, Parsad said:

I still think Buffett's import/export certificates was the ideal way to deal with the problem of the trade imbalances.

 

Based on all the action since liberation day and the deals announced so far - I have serious serious question marks around wether trade imbalances & re-industrialization we're ever the target here.....its more and more a smash and grab for revenue (& clientelism)........and as per Trump 2.0, the imperial presidency.....he is really only interested in doing things unilaterally...........fentanyl, 232....just mechanism by which he gets to pretend like he isnt in a constituently democracy.....he's living out his Xi, Kim Jong Un & Putin fantasies here and loving the attention.......until the courts or then the congress burst his bubble.....the key point that any company looking at all this policy volatility will see......is that there is zero policy durability to anything he has done......it would be foolish for a company to make a long run fixed asset investment for such tiny deltas created by these tariffs versus the ultra-high cost USA and if it that alone weren't enough......the policy durability of any of this is extremely extremely weak and so provides no certainty to capital.

 

Edited July 30, 2025 by changegonnacome

[Red Lion]

50 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

he key point that any company looking at all this policy volatility will see......is that there is zero policy durability to anything he has done......it would be foolish for a company to make a long run fixed asset investment for such tiny deltas created by these tariffs versus the ultra-high cost USA and if it that alone weren't enough......the policy durability of any of this is extremely extremely weak and so provides no certainty to capital.

 

If you take tariffs in a vacuum I would agree with this. But the tax bill provides a tremendous amount of policy durability with huge write offs for companies to invest in domestic growth CapEx.

 

Will companies find ways to make more long run fixed asset investments which they can get up front write offs on? Will 15% minimum tariffs benefit some of these investments? 

 

Do deregulation of the environmental review process and other regulatory hurdles make it incrementally more likely for more of these fixed asset investments? 

 

We can both agree that Fortune 500 companies aren't going to rush to build new underwear factories in California, but I believe it's clear that Trump seems to have a plan that goes beyond a smash and grab to finance tax cuts for the ultra wealthy with tariff revenue. Maybe Trump is a Russian spy who is going to end the democratic process in the USA, and usher in World War 3 and the Great Depression 2.0. Maybe he pulls off some onshoring without toppling the economy and without fixing our ballooning debt. Maybe he proves everyone wrong. 

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, Red Lion said:

But the tax bill provides a tremendous amount of policy durability with huge write offs for companies to invest in domestic growth CapEx.

 

Will companies find ways to make more long run fixed asset investments which they can get up front write offs on? Will 15% minimum tariffs benefit some of these investments? 

 

Your right - the expensing regime is attractive and durable......I was totally wrong to exclude that.....your right to call that out as counter to my argument.

 

What I would say however...when you look at the 10, 20yr life of fixed asset investments....you ask yourself over 10yr period what gets to a be bigger number.....capex or opex?.....Trump has done nothing to address the Opex burden of an American workforce versus say an Italian one.....the delta is large here mainly due ironically to healthcare costs....so Opex matters more in a model than Capex when you run it out years....and of course capex itself is more expensive in the USA vs. competing jurisdictions.....so sure the immediate expensing regime gets you 21% of costs delivered back as a tax rebate in Yr1 and the time value of money means its worth more than that.....but you know your spreadsheet still shows Mexico is 50% to build and as I said above opex costs begin to drive numbers bus very quickly once you go outside year 5.

 

Your point is well made - at the margins I think tariffs + expensing is going to move some marginal projects into the USA column.......I guess my less hyperbolic point is I'm seeing enough for a wholesale renaissance he's hyping up here.

 

 

Edited July 31, 2025 by changegonnacome

[whiskybravo]

5 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Trump has done nothing to address the Opex burden of an American workforce versus say an Italian one.....the delta is large here mainly due ironically to healthcare costs....so Opex matters more 

 

Employment Costs: US employers face additional employment costs (25-40% above base salary) compared to Italian employers (approximately 35-45% above base salary due to INPS contributions and mandatory benefits), but these costs are structured differently. US spending is focused on private healthcare, rather than Italy’s Servizio Sanitario Nazionale, and offers limited statutory benefits compared to Italy’s comprehensive social welfare system

 

https://www.footholdamerica.com/blog/expanding-to-the-usa-from-italy-complete-guide/

 

I’m here in Italy.  Don’t forget the beloved tredicesimo!

[Saluki]

I received this disturbing email in inbox: 

 

-------------------------------------

 

Dear Colleague,

You served the United States of America with distinction and honor. Now, your country calls upon you to serve once more. Due to the prior administration's disastrous immigration policies, the men and women of ICE now face unprecedented challenges. Your experience and unwavering commitment are critically needed to support our frontline Law Enforcement colleagues in helping to secure our communities and uphold our laws.

We are issuing an urgent call to former federal Attorneys to join OPERATION RETURN TO MISSION (“RTM”), where you can serve in your current location.

By returning to ICE, you are providing an honorable, indispensable service to our nation. The Trump Administration is fully committed to supporting the dedicated law enforcement, attorneys, and professionals who secure our borders, shield our communities, and protect our national security and public safety. This is a pivotal moment in our country's history, and your experience and expertise are vitally needed.

On Independence Day 2025, President Trump signed into law the One Big Beautiful Bill (“OBBB”), giving ICE the funding to once again defend the homeland and uphold the rule of law. As a result, we are significantly growing our ICE team -- starting with bringing back our retired colleagues. RTM is being offered to retired employees who departed federal service in good standing. If you qualify for RTM, you may be eligible for:

1. A signing bonus (recruitment incentive) of up to $50,000 may be paid as follows:
   1. A signing bonus of $10,000 upon returning to service;
   2. An additional $10,000 signing bonus upon returning to service if your completed application is submitted by August 6, 2025; and
   3. A $10,000 bonus paid annually on your service anniversary for up to three years.
2. A “dual compensation waiver” (salary offset waiver) which will allow you to continue to collect your new ICE salary while also retaining any existing federal benefits including pension payments.

If you are ready to RETURN TO MISSION, please submit your application at the following links.

• Attorney, GS-14 - USAJOBS - Job Announcement
• Attorney, GS-14 (FPL 15) DC Only - USAJOBS - Job Announcement

For more information and FAQs, please visit: https://www.ice.gov/return.

On behalf of a grateful nation, we proudly call upon you to RETURN TO MISSION and claim your vital role among the courageous men and women of ICE.

If you have questions regarding the announcements, please send them to [email protected].

Sincerely,
Madison D. Sheahan
Deputy Director
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement

[Red Lion]

14 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

Your point is well made - at the margins I think tariffs + expensing is going to move some marginal projects into the USA column.......I guess my less hyperbolic point is I'm seeing enough for a wholesale renaissance he's hyping up here.

 

I think we are in complete agreement. I never buy the Trump hype for the best (insert policy choice) in the history of the world. But domestic growth CapEx in the USA is at least somewhat more attractive than it was 6 months ago. Mostly because of the taxes, but I'm sure there are some winners from the tariffs and deregulation as well. 

[Red Lion]

6 minutes ago, Saluki said:

I received this disturbing email in inbox: 

 

-------------------------------------

 

Dear Colleague,

You served the United States of America with distinction and honor. Now, your country calls upon you to serve once more. Due to the prior administration's disastrous immigration policies, the men and women of ICE now face unprecedented challenges. Your experience and unwavering commitment are critically needed to support our frontline Law Enforcement colleagues in helping to secure our communities and uphold our laws.

We are issuing an urgent call to former federal Attorneys to join OPERATION RETURN TO MISSION (“RTM”), where you can serve in your current location.

By returning to ICE, you are providing an honorable, indispensable service to our nation. The Trump Administration is fully committed to supporting the dedicated law enforcement, attorneys, and professionals who secure our borders, shield our communities, and protect our national security and public safety. This is a pivotal moment in our country's history, and your experience and expertise are vitally needed.

On Independence Day 2025, President Trump signed into law the One Big Beautiful Bill (“OBBB”), giving ICE the funding to once again defend the homeland and uphold the rule of law. As a result, we are significantly growing our ICE team -- starting with bringing back our retired colleagues. RTM is being offered to retired employees who departed federal service in good standing. If you qualify for RTM, you may be eligible for:

1. A signing bonus (recruitment incentive) of up to $50,000 may be paid as follows:
   1. A signing bonus of $10,000 upon returning to service;
   2. An additional $10,000 signing bonus upon returning to service if your completed application is submitted by August 6, 2025; and
   3. A $10,000 bonus paid annually on your service anniversary for up to three years.
2. A “dual compensation waiver” (salary offset waiver) which will allow you to continue to collect your new ICE salary while also retaining any existing federal benefits including pension payments.

If you are ready to RETURN TO MISSION, please submit your application at the following links.

• Attorney, GS-14 - USAJOBS - Job Announcement
• Attorney, GS-14 (FPL 15) DC Only - USAJOBS - Job Announcement

For more information and FAQs, please visit: https://www.ice.gov/return.

On behalf of a grateful nation, we proudly call upon you to RETURN TO MISSION and claim your vital role among the courageous men and women of ICE.

If you have questions regarding the announcements, please send them to [email protected].

Sincerely,
Madison D. Sheahan
Deputy Director
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement

 

Because I'm sure you went to law school hoping to become an ICE lawyer. lmao

[changegonnacome]

9 hours ago, whiskybravo said:

I’m here in Italy.

 

Italy perhaps a bad European example.......US companies in the main offshore to Europe .....look to the Netherlands, UK, Ireland and then Eastern Europe.....Italy not super high on the FDI list.

 

Even as the worst example like for like and on an FX basis - an Italian worker versus a US (all in) is still cheaper.....the sad reality is that as the US has diverged from EU and become wealthier and wealthier.....they are no longer comparable in terms of costs structures.....THIS is a good thing for the USA....it outpaced Europe and became an expensive place to do business as a result....a trade deficit and services surplus is what that looks like......Europe would kill to have the USA's "problem".....which amounts to something like we are so wealthy and successful and at full employment that manufactoring here versus overseas has become a very hard math problem!!!

 

48 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

But domestic growth CapEx in the USA is at least somewhat more attractive than it was 6 months ago. Mostly because of the taxes, but I'm sure there are some winners from the tariffs and deregulation as well. 

 

Yeah agree....it reminds there is a couple of days work to figure out what companies are going to benefit from this provision.....I think alot of companies are going to wake up in a few months time and realize this provision exists and how attractive it is.....and will bring forward equipment & fixed asset investments......its a very pro-growth provision....and possibly the one thing in the BBB that I think is very smart politics and will result in meaningful activity next year coming up to the mid-terms.