Political Posts

[changegonnacome]

31 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

But still waiting on all these other countries to follow thru on all their “we won’t take it” flexing. Wasn’t Canada gonna shut down a pipeline or something? 

 

I think alot of countries - are starting to look at it from the EU perspective I outlined earlier....Trump's tariff regime has no policy durability underpinning it....if you take the medium to long term view which many of these countries are.....best to give Trump a PR win now....and let the the Supreme Court first or the Congress a little later dismantle them.....put another way these trade 'understandings' aren't an end state....they are a political aberration for an unusual period in US politics where a US President is overstepping his constitutional powers and the Congress is not pushing back.

 

31 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

the least painful trade off in the whole balancing act equation that is a whole lot more presentable and allowable than austerity or sweeping tax hikes. 

 

For sure - its a clever way to sneak a federal sales tax into peoples daily lives, reduce consumer choice with some forced 'buy American'.... and somehow get half the country at least to think its some kind of big picture 'win'.

 

You can have endless debates on what the Trump admin is doing......but based on tariffs, GENIUS act, deregulation, DOGE, BBB, Fed takeover with likely fiscal dominance coming...what I will say is that they are attempting to apply a very innovative and novel playbook to solving the nations fiscal trajectory mess that both parties have got us into in the last 10yrs.......there are pluses and minuses to the strategy. I'd really like it work and am rooting for Stephen Miran & Bessent's superior market smarts to be right here.....if they pull it off..... it will be a beautiful deleveraging of USA LLC.....and Trump & team will deserve all the credit in the world for taking a non-conventional approach to an age old problem of the fiscal authority getting into deep debt.....but its not without the risks.....I think one should view what they are doing as a high risk - high reward strategy.....we'll know in 4-5yrs if its paid off....nobody, not a single person can say for sure whether its succeeding or failing at this early stage.....those talking about all the Trump 'wins' are calling a baseball game thats in its first inning....and likewise for those calling the opposite......the final inning and the game result on all this stuff is at least 4-5yrs out....and folks should be humble enough to know that.

 

Edited July 28, 2025 by changegonnacome

[cubsfan]

10 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

I think alot of countries - are starting to look at it from the EU perspective I outlined earlier....Trump's tariff regime has no policy durability underpinning it....if you take the medium to long term view which many of these countries are.....best to give Trump a PR win now....and let the the Supreme Court first or the Congress a little later dismantle them.....put another way these trade 'understandings' aren't an end state....they are a political aberration for an unusual period in US politics where a US President is overstepping his constitutional powers and the Congress is not pushing back.

 

 

For sure - its a clever way to sneak a federal sales tax into peoples daily lives, reduce consumer choice with some forced 'buy American'.... and somehow get half the country at least to think its some kind of big picture 'win'.

 

You can have endless debates on what the Trump admin is doing......but based on tariffs, GENIUS act, deregulation, DOGE, BBB, Fed takeover with likely fiscal dominance coming...what I will say is that they are attempting to apply a very innovative and novel playbook to solving the nations fiscal trajectory mess that both parties have got us into in the last 10yrs.......there are pluses and minuses to the strategy. I'd really like it work and am rooting for Stephen Miran & Bessent's superior market smarts to be right here.....if they pull it off..... it will be a beautiful deleveraging of USA LLC.....and Trump & team will deserve all the credit in the world for taking a non-conventional approach to an age old problem of the fiscal authority getting into deep debt.....but its not without the risks.....I think one should view what they are doing as a high risk - high reward strategy.....we'll know in 4-5yrs if its paid off.

 

Now there's a good post. Better to have a do-something executive, than the worthless do-nothing Presidents we've had that kick the can to the next administration.  We are gonna see how it all works out and adjust from there.

 

I think where you are wrong: There is little chance Trump is exceeding his constitutional authority - he has excellent advisors. IF you look at some of the Supreme Court rulings - I believe he has been reversed only 3 or 4 times of the 18 or 20 challenges that have appeared before the courts (of his executive orders) since his flurry of executive orders beginning in January.

[dwy000]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Not true - its all situational - every product is its own micro market...elasticity of demand, substitution effects, producer margins, market share aspirations.....how the tariff incidence is allocated is going to be very different for each product.

 

Tariffs are almost a perfect rorschach test for how partisan you are......if you belive it will be bourne completley by US consumers I can confidently tell you, you are LIB-tard......if you think the foreign company will pay it completley, I can confidently diagnosis you as having a serious case of MAGA.

Tariffs, by definition, are paid by the importer.  Every single $ of tariff is a check written by the importing company in the US. Can exporters reduce prices to offset the cost for the importer?  Yes they can but now they're selling for lower prices for no additional benefit - a price that non US buyers will demand. 

 

Ultimately, not only will the tariffs be passed along to consumers but even the amounts eaten by importers thru lower profits are offset by local producers raising prices because they can.  

[73 Reds]

6 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Tariffs, by definition, are paid by the importer.  Every single $ of tariff is a check written by the importing company in the US. Can exporters reduce prices to offset the cost for the importer?  Yes they can but now they're selling for lower prices for no additional benefit - a price that non US buyers will demand. 

 

Ultimately, not only will the tariffs be passed along to consumers but even the amounts eaten by importers thru lower profits are offset by local producers raising prices because they can.  

So better we do nothing and let the World keep taking advantage.  

[dwy000]

8 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

So better we do nothing and let the World keep taking advantage.  

Walk me thru how the UK is "taking advantage" of the US on trade.  We have a trade surplus with the UK.

 

How does taxing US consumers 15% solve the problem?

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, dwy000 said:

Walk me thru how the UK is "taking advantage" of the US on trade.  We have a trade surplus with the UK.

 

How does taxing US consumers 15% solve the problem?

They just made a deal  Good thing you weren't involved in negotiating it.  China?  Oh, that doesn't suit your narrative.

[dwy000]

1 minute ago, 73 Reds said:

They just made a deal  Good thing you weren't involved in negotiating it.  China?  Oh, that doesn't suit your narrative.

They didnt make a deal, they have a framework for a deal.  But please explain how this fixes them taking advantage of the US.

 

Oh and how canada is taking advantage of the US by operating under the very deal that Trump signed in his first term.  That deal was unfair?

[cwericb]

1 minute ago, dwy000 said:

Walk me thru how the UK is "taking advantage" of the US on trade.  We have a trade surplus with the UK.

 

How does taxing US consumers 15% solve the problem?

 

 

 

Pop Quiz for you MAGA guys:

Who the United States biggest customer for American products?

And then explain how they are taking advantage of the United States.

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, dwy000 said:

They didnt make a deal, they have a framework for a deal.  But please explain how this fixes them taking advantage of the US.

 

Oh and how canada is taking advantage of the US by operating under the very deal that Trump signed in his first term.  That deal was unfair?

BS.  They made a deal.  And the UK is so far down the list of the largest US trading partners, who even cares?  There's an old slogan involving forests and trees.

Edited July 28, 2025 by 73 Reds
spelling

[changegonnacome]

27 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Tariffs, by definition, are paid by the importer.  Every single $ of tariff is a check written by the importing company in the US. Can exporters reduce prices to offset the cost for the importer?  Yes they can but now they're selling for lower prices for no additional benefit - a price that non US buyers will demand. 

 

Ultimately, not only will the tariffs be passed along to consumers but even the amounts eaten by importers thru lower profits are offset by local producers raising prices because they can.  

 

Yes big big picture......there is no free lunch here...Friedman & Thomas Sowell are right....the Government has inserted themselves into a transaction between two parties.....a foreign producer and a US consumer.....in myriad different ways consumers and producers will pay for this interference.....it is quite something to see a nominal GOP government advocate for more taxes and more Government involvement in transactions between private parties but here we are its a crazy world and this isn't your Grandma GOP.....the Miran/Bessent/Trump thesis of course is that the US had untapped leverage in its trade relationships.....their bet is that when its all summed up....the tariff burden will fall disproportionately outside the US....and so it will be a net global transfer....they are also (subtly) if you listen to them, accepting that American's will get to consume less goods and so be worse off (in aggregate) but that expanded economic opportunity to the bottom 20% of American's (via re-industrialization) is a worthy tradeoff. Indeed what they are attempting to do is a right wing version of the 'new deal' - Trump's new deal is that everybody is little worse off from tariffs but a motivated Joe Sixpack has a little more diversity of economic opportunity moving forward and his labor might get a little more edge over capital. The proof will in the pudding on whether all this has worked.....you'd really need to see the bottoms quartiles real wages move up in ways we havent seen before....I'm skeptical...as I've said above.....15% in lots of these deals is not enough to move production....so you get the worst of all worlds.....higher prices, less consumer choice, less aggregate consumption, domestic producers coattaling foreign price increases and pocketing the difference with no incremental domestic production/import substitution or real wage growth (indeed perhaps even real wages start to slip)

Edited July 28, 2025 by changegonnacome

[dwy000]

2 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

BS.  They made a deal.  And the UK is so far down the list of the largest US trading partners, who even cares?  There's an old slogan involving forests and trees.

Theres no signed deal.  Its a framework.

 

But again, please explain how this fixes them taking advantage of the US.  

[73 Reds]

Just now, dwy000 said:

Theres no signed deal.  Its a framework.

 

But again, please explain how this fixes them taking advantage of the US.  

Why?  So you can continue to argue for the sake of argument?  Start by removing Trump from your mindset and every discussion.  

[cubsfan]

3 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Why?  So you can continue to argue for the sake of argument?  Start by removing Trump from your mindset and every discussion.  

 

We all know there are many non-tariff based barriers that block US imports into other countries. Now with US tariffs, they get a taste of their own medicine - and, of course, they can't stand ti.

[cwericb]

 

Still waiting for one of you MAGA guys to explain. Who is the US's biggest customer for US exports? Please explain how that is taking advantage of the US via trade. 

[Gregmal]

TDS is eating their brains. So amusing to watch this unfold.

[dwy000]

13 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Why?  So you can continue to argue for the sake of argument?  Start by removing Trump from your mindset and every discussion.  

If youre arguing a position that you can't explain solely because it was put forth by Trump, that's a cult. 

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

If youre arguing a position that you can't explain solely because it was put forth by Trump, that's a cult. 

@dwy000 you and others should really try to frame a proper question.  Otherwise, no further reply is even warranted so continue on with your TDS and the rest of us will simply observe and hope you recover.

[Gregmal]

Should start a list called “sorry, not allowed to discuss Trump because your input on the subject is worthless and predictions always turn out to be the exact opposite of what happens” 

[dwy000]

Just now, 73 Reds said:

@dwy000 you and others should really try to frame a proper question.  Otherwise, no further reply is even warranted so continue on with your TDS and the rest of us will simply observe and hope you recover.

How many times do I have to frame it.  Please explain how the UK was taking advantage of the US but now taxing US consumers on British imports by 15% fixes that. 

[cubsfan]

5 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

If youre arguing a position that you can't explain solely because it was put forth by Trump, that's a cult. 

 

Dude - you really love that cult stuff, don't you, especially when the cult is kicking ass.  Better get used to it.

[dwy000]

Just now, cubsfan said:

 

Dude - you really love that cult stuff, don't you, especially when the cult is kicking ass.  Better get used to it.

Dude, youre so gone in the cult I rarely look at your posts because there's no independent thought. Only regurgitation of the party line and worship. 

[Marco Van Basten]

2 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

The smarter sole source producers just stop supply, immediately raise US prices 25-30%, and kick back part of the windfall rake with Indian competitors; the US either pays up or suffers withdrawal, no different to a pusher squeezing the junkies hooked on the product.

 

It is also low risk. The US can threaten all it likes, but it is very unlikely that the US can domestically manufacture (patent theft) and replace the supply within the next 18 months (post mid-term elections). Particularly when those being stolen from, also throw as much sand into the machinery as they can 

 

Sure the deals make headlines .... but maybe they aren't quite what they seem. 

 

SD

Dude, what are you smoking?  What sole producers are you talking about?  What windfall rake?  Have you heard of elasticity of demand?  Why do you automatically assume that US needs patent theft to manufacture things?  Last time I checked, it was Europe, Canada, India and China that engage in patent theft, and when Canada forces US pharmaceutical companies to sell at 1/5 the price, that is theft.  What have you in Canada or Europeans in Europe or Indians in India have actually invented in the past 20 years, besides two companies - ASML and Novo Nordisk?

@dwy000, tariffs are not automatically paid by importer, they are allocated based on elasticity of demand.  If India tomorrow imposes 100% tariffs on jet engines, it ain't going to be GE/Safran that will pay, it will be Indian airlines.  

[changegonnacome]

38 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

I think where you are wrong: There is little chance Trump is exceeding his constitutional authority - he has excellent advisors. IF you look at some of the Supreme Court rulings

 

The lower court record now on these reciprocal tariffs is quite clear so far....he's playing outside the lines...

 

The section 232 stuff he is on much firmer ground..........but lots of these trade understandings/frameworks we are talking about the bulk of trade value does not fall on 232.....they fall on this reciprocity concept....which will in my opinion, having reviewed it myself, in a fair bit of detail will fail at the Supreme Court.

 

Now the admin is expanding 232 investigations around lots of areas......exactly because of what I said above.....they see reciprocity falling at the supreme court level and want a bunch of 232's on ICE....or why bother with stacking these 232's? in background.!?!

 

The 232's then - if we focus on these......again fail the policy durabilty test....they amount in governance terms to executuve orders.....if you believe that there will never be a Democratic free market/globaist president again then they are permanent.......or more reasonable argument to make would be a little like replacement theory was a way for the Democratic party to stack the deck at elections with voters........Section 232 is a way to get whole industries into your GOP voter column (what steelworker in his right mind would vote for a democratic President who wanted to drop 232 on steel, ditto for autoworkers!!!!!). 

 

So the GOP is involved in its own cynical replacement project here....they are replacing their ageing voter base....with tariff shielded industries who's employee base will vote with their pocket books at election to keep the trade barriers...and the companies in which they work will pay tithings to the GOP (via SuperPacs) to keep the protectionist barriers up.........net net as @dwy000 points out....its a dead weight loss economically.....if you step out of the realm of pure economics maybe you come to a different view from society perspective......as many folks have pointed out recently GDP per capita is not a very holistic metric that one can measure the success or failure of your Country.....the US is the GDP per capita king of the jungle......but fentanyl deaths, gun violence, mass shootings, wealth distribution, suicide rates, number of people one paycheck away from bankruptcy, healthcare access and costs tell a different.....European's have a much lower GDP per capita than us.......and I have many friends there who visit the United States and when the consider things in the round they consider the United States to be an inferior value proposition to the median citzen and when you talk with them....its very very very very hard to argue with them.

[dwy000]

1 minute ago, Marco Van Basten said:

 

@dwy000, tariffs are not automatically paid by importer, they are allocated based on elasticity of demand.  If India tomorrow imposes 100% tariffs on jet engines, it ain't going to be GE/Safran that will pay, it will be Indian airlines.  

Your example is exactly the point i was making.  The importer pays the tariff not the exporter.  If demand goes down because of elasticity, there's less product purchased and less tariff paid.  But the tariffs are paid by the importer (and usually passed ongoing to their customer).

[cubsfan]

5 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

The lower court record now on these reciprocal tariffs is quite clear so far....he's playing outside the lines...

 

The section 232 stuff he is on much firmer ground..........but lots of these trade understandings/frameworks we are talking about the bulk of trade value does not fall on 232.....they fall on this reciprocity concept....which will in my opinion, having reviewed it myself, in a fair bit of detail will fail at the Supreme Court.

 

Now the admin is expanding 232 investigations around lots of areas......exactly because of what I said above.....they see reciprocity falling at the supreme court level and want a bunch of 232's on ICE....or why bother with stacking these 232's? in background.!?!

 

The 232's then - if we focus on these......again fail the policy durabilty test....they amount in governance terms to executuve orders.....if you believe that there will never be a Democratic free market/globaist president again then they are permanent.......or more reasonable argument to make would be a little like replacement theory was a way for the Democratic party to stack the deck at elections with voters........Section 232 is a way to get whole industries into your GOP voter column (what steelworker in his right mind would vote for a democratic President who wanted to drop 232 on steel, ditto for autoworkers!!!!!). 

 

So the GOP is involved in its own cynical replacement project here....they are replacing their ageing voter base....with tariff shielded industries who's employee base will vote with their pocket books at election to keep the trade barriers...and the companies in which they work will pay tithings to the GOP (via SuperPacs) to keep the protectionist barriers up.........net net as @dwy000 points out....its a dead weight loss economically.....if you step out of the realm of pure economics maybe you come to a different view from society perspective......as many folks have pointed out recently GDP per capita is not a very holistic metric that one can measure the success or failure of your Country.....the US is the GDP per capita king of the jungle......but fentanyl deaths, gun violence, mass shootings, wealth distribution, suicide rates, number of people one paycheck away from bankruptcy, healthcare access and costs tell a different.....European's have a much lower GDP per capita than us.......and I have many friends there who visit the United States and when the consider things in the round they consider the United States to be an inferior value proposition to the median citzen and when you talk with them....its very very very very hard to argue with them.

 

Damn - I think I'm going to blow my brains out. Sounds like we're all gonna die!

 

And, yes, it would be far preferable if Congress codifies the tariffs. But of course, we all know that Congress has maybe a 20% favorability rating, precisely because they usually do NOTHING about difficult issues.

 

Thank goodness we have a President with equal power.

 

You may understand the legal issues better than me - we will see how good Trump's legal advisers are - becuase they have been pretty damn good thus far.