Political Posts

[changegonnacome]

How an Israeli-American deception campaign lulled Iran into a false sense of security - Times of Israel

 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/how-an-israeli-american-deception-campaign-lulled-iran-into-a-false-sense-of-security/amp/

 

 

 

 

[Blake Hampton]

I don't particularly blame Israel for attacking. It makes sense given the monumental threat Iran poses with their nuclear development.

 

But that doesn't mean there's no consequences. You have to be willing to pay the price attached to being this aggressive. But maybe I'm wrong, maybe Iran is actually weak and doesn't have the capacity to respond in a meaningful way.

 

I don't know.

[Viking]

Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran have one - and only one - aim... to wipe Israel off the map. Israel has one primary aim - to survive. And to peacefully live with others in the region.  

 

Is the Middle East better off with Hamas, Hezbollah and now Iran defanged? I think so.  Is the world better off with a non-nuclear Iran? Of course. 

 

I am not a fan of Trump. But I do think he is a much better fit than Biden/Democrats for what needs to be done in the Middle East today. It will always be a messy, messy situation. And there are lots of ways this situation could yet play out. Let's hope the developments of the past 24 months will result in a more peaceful Middle East in the coming decades - where more countries continue to normal relations with Israel. and the focus shifts to improving the lives of people (as opposed to trying to kill them). 

Edited June 13, 2025 by Viking

[changegonnacome]

56 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Good for Bibi.

Good for Bibi if and a BIG if….he had the capability to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability, effect regime change or defend Israel entirely on its own and without an iota of US’s assistance….but he doesn’t. 

 

And so his strategic aim here, for months now, has been to pull the United States into a full blown conflict with Iran to do the above on his behalf. Last night was down payment on that plan. 
 

@cubsfan I’m not sure what your happy about…what we’ve always seemed to agree on….is the nation building, region building folly of overseas US military adventures costing hundreds of billions of dollars and American lives were a mistake…the DJT narrative is that he is not a war monger….i can assure you the war mongers in DC are making steak house reservations tonight….there is high probability on foot of these event that the US has just found its new forever war……Iraq/Afghanistan v2.0.

 

Make no mistake about it - Bibi is in Jerusalem now with his two fingers crossed on both hands hoping Iran attacks US military forces in region such that his dream above comes true. 

 

 

[LC]

3 minutes ago, Viking said:

Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran had one - and only one - aim... to wipe Israel off the map. Israel has one primary aim - to survive. And to peacefully live with others in the region.  

 

 

I don't think Israel wants to live peacefully with its neighbors, but of course it deserves to defend itself.

 

The Middle East is the real life version of "this town ain't big enough for the both of us", and both sides sincerely believe it.

[cubsfan]

42 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

@cubsfan I’m not sure what your happy about…what we’ve always seemed to agree on….is the nation building, region building folly of overseas US military adventures costing hundreds of billions of dollars and American lives were a mistake…the DJT narrative is that he is not a war monger….i can assure you the war mongers in DC are making steak house reservations tonight….there is high probability on foot of these event that the US has just found its new forever war……Iraq/Afghanistan v2.0.

 

Happy is definitely not the right word. And I am completely with you on endless wars and US involvement.  Trump is no warmonger.  We can certainly arm Israel to the teeth as Iran has done nothing but kill Americans at every opportunity it can.

So if they are a threat to Israel and the rest of the Middle East - Israel is willing to do the dirty work.  I would have vastly preferred the extended blockade route, but such is life, as it was Israel's decision. 

 

Israel is doing America, Europe and most everyone a huge favor.

 

[Viking]

1 hour ago, LC said:

 

I don't think Israel wants to live peacefully with its neighbors, but of course it deserves to defend itself.

 

The Middle East is the real life version of "this town ain't big enough for the both of us", and both sides sincerely believe it.

 

Are Egypt and Jordan not instructive examples in terms of what Israel wants? Both countries normalized relations with Israel long ago. All three countries now peacefully coexist - and they have for decades. 

 

What happened? Egypt and Jordan recognized Israel's right to exist. They also decided they no longer wanted to kill Israeli's. 

 

Saudi Arabia was poised to normalize relations with Israel - and Iran and their proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis) decided that couldn't happen and Hamas attacked Israel.

 

We have two very different models/approaches to getting to peace in the Middle East. I think Egypt/Jordan's model is the better path to peace in the Middle East than Iran's. I think Israel wants the Egypt/Jordan path. But I am by no means an expert of what is going on there. So I will try and remain open minded to understanding the situation.  

Edited June 13, 2025 by Viking

[changegonnacome]

38 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 Trump is no warmonger.

 

Well he didn't stop Bibi starting one......and very soon, there's a very good chance, this will be our war to....and not one like Ukraine....one like Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam....I hope not...but IMO thats where we're headed.....Bibi is like Donald Trump with brains & strategic cunning......I have almost no doubt if Bibi's aim is to pull the US into an Iranian conflict (and it is) then the hardest part of that plan has already been achieved....he managed to get a 'no red light' sign from the WH to up the ante with Iran and go ahead with this strike....now he'll run rings around DJT slowly pulling him and the US further and further into this fight. Tiny little incremental commitments till we're waist deep in it. Hope I'm wrong - but make no mistake about it THIS Israeli war cabinet led by Bibi make Dick Cheney, Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton look like Ghandi in terms of their desire to use military force.

 

Edited June 13, 2025 by changegonnacome

[LC]

That's a good point. I made that comment given how long and how brutal the Israel-Palestine conflict is. I recall two friends in 20 years ago (one Jewish, one Persian) arguing for hours about the exact same topic we are discussing now. It's always the other guy's fault

[whiskybravo]

3 hours ago, Buckeye said:

Wow, so half of the country is unpatriotic? Huh, that’s an interesting take.  So patriotic of you!

I wasn’t stating a personal opinion, just an attempt at political analysis.  Most of my friends and acquaintances are to varying degrees on the left.  They are as patriotic as I am, that is to say not hyper patriotic but appreciative of their country and glad that they are lucky enough to live here.

 

There is a political perception that the left is less patriotic and this is what Trump would like to take advantage of on Saturday.  My advice to those attending no kings rallies is to wave the American flag.  It wasn’t  a good look in LA to see  foreign flags waved and American ones burned. In fact it was very beneficial, again from a political point of view, to Republicans.

[73 Reds]

48 minutes ago, Viking said:

 

Are Egypt and Jordan not instructive examples in terms of what Israel wants? Both countries normalized relations with Israel long ago. All three countries now peacefully coexist - and they have for decades. 

 

What happened? Egypt and Jordan recognized Israel's right to exist. They also decided they no longer wanted to kill Israeli's. 

 

Saudi Arabia was poised to normalize relations with Israel - and Iran and their proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis) decided that couldn't happen and Hamas attacked Israel.

 

We have two very different models/approaches to getting to peace in the Middle East. I think Egypt/Jordan's model is the better path to peace in the Middle East than Iran's. I think Israel wants the Egypt/Jordan path. But I am by no means an expert of what is going on there. So I will try and remain open minded to understanding the situation.  

@Viking Iran's objective is no model/approach for peace.  Otherwise you are correct.  The Abraham Accords were well on their way to furthering friendly relations in the region.  It is not constructive to focus on individuals; leaders like Bibi and Trump come and go.  Israel has prospered and done well under many different leaders and its relationships with Jordan and Egypt have survived even when those countries were having their own issues.  Extremist regimes are the cause of the problem.  From the day Israel became an independent State [Country] in 1948 it was under attack.  It has spent its entire existence defending itself against surrounding enemies.  Anyone who believes Israel wants anything but peace with its neighbors is delusional and historically ignorant.  The fact of the matter is, Israel represents a geographical blip on the radar of the Middle East (about the size of the State of Ohio). With no oil and no more resources than its immediate neighbors to the north, east and and south, Israel has built itself into a powerhouse nation in a mere 77 years from almost nothing.  What many don't understand is that there are wealthy Arab communities in the heart of Israel and they want nothing to do with their Palestinian brothers and sisters who serve as Iranian proxies in the adjacent territories; why would they - these Arabs live great lives - they are professionals, business owners and some own magnificent homes, the likes of which most people in this country would be envious.  Like Israelis, they simply want to be left alone to co-exist and prosper.  But unless one has been there and experienced life in the successful experiment - against all odds- known as Israel, one would never know from the non-stop agenda-driven nonsense we read and see every day in the media that Israelis and Arabs can co-exist and once extremist hatred is permanently removed from the equation, all people in the region can and will have brighter futures. 

Edited June 13, 2025 by 73 Reds
word

[Hektor]

55 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

one like Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam

Who will fund and supply Iran?

[whiskybravo]

50 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

@Viking Iran's objective is no model/approach for peace.  Otherwise you are correct.  The Abraham Accords were well on their way to furthering friendly relations in the region.  It is not constructive to focus on individuals; leaders like Bibi and Trump come and go.  Israel has prospered and done well under many different leaders and its relationships with Jordan and Egypt have survived even when those countries were having their own issues.  Extremist regimes are the cause of the problem.  From the day Israel became an independent State [Country] in 1948 it was under attack.  It has spent its entire existence defending itself against surrounding enemies.  Anyone who believes Israel wants anything but peace with its neighbors is delusional and historically ignorant.  The fact of the matter is, Israel represents a geographical blip on the radar of the Middle East (about the size of the State of Ohio). With no oil and no more resources than its immediate neighbors to the north, east and and south, Israel has built itself into a powerhouse nation in a mere 77 years from almost nothing.  What many don't understand is that there are wealthy Arab communities in the heart of Israel and they want nothing to do with their Palestinian brothers and sisters who serve as Iranian proxies in the adjacent territories; why would they - these Arabs live great lives - they are professionals, business owners and some own magnificent homes, the likes of which most people in this country would be envious.  Like Israelis, they simply want to be left alone to co-exist and prosper.  But unless one has been there and experienced life in the successful experiment - against all odds- known as Israel, one would never know from the non-stop agenda-driven nonsense we read and see every day in the media that Israelis and Arabs can co-exist and once extremist hatred is permanently removed from the equation, all people in the region can and will have brighter futures. 

Yes, nailed it.

[Stuart D]

3 hours ago, Viking said:

Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran have one - and only one - aim... to wipe Israel off the map. Israel has one primary aim - to survive. And to peacefully live with others in the region.  

 

Is the Middle East better off with Hamas, Hezbollah and now Iran defanged? I think so.  Is the world better off with a non-nuclear Iran? Of course. 

 

I am not a fan of Trump. But I do think he is a much better fit than Biden/Democrats for what needs to be done in the Middle East today. It will always be a messy, messy situation. And there are lots of ways this situation could yet play out. Let's hope the developments of the past 24 months will result in a more peaceful Middle East in the coming decades - where more countries continue to normal relations with Israel. and the focus shifts to improving the lives of people (as opposed to trying to kill them). 

Well said. 
+1

[Red Lion]

3 hours ago, Viking said:

Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran have one - and only one - aim... to wipe Israel off the map. Israel has one primary aim - to survive. And to peacefully live with others in the region.  

 

Is the Middle East better off with Hamas, Hezbollah and now Iran defanged? I think so.  Is the world better off with a non-nuclear Iran? Of course. 

 

I am not a fan of Trump. But I do think he is a much better fit than Biden/Democrats for what needs to be done in the Middle East today. It will always be a messy, messy situation. And there are lots of ways this situation could yet play out. Let's hope the developments of the past 24 months will result in a more peaceful Middle East in the coming decades - where more countries continue to normal relations with Israel. and the focus shifts to improving the lives of people (as opposed to trying to kill them). 

Hear hear 

[Eldad]

Strange to me that Mossad keeps giving the play by play of how smart they are and everything they do. First with the Hezbollah radios and now this. 

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Well he didn't stop Bibi starting one......and very soon, there's a very good chance, this will be our war to....and not one like Ukraine....one like Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam....I hope not...but IMO thats where we're headed.....Bibi is like Donald Trump with brains & strategic cunning......I have almost no doubt if Bibi's aim is to pull the US into an Iranian conflict (and it is) then the hardest part of that plan has already been achieved....he managed to get a 'no red light' sign from the WH to up the ante with Iran and go ahead with this strike....now he'll run rings around DJT slowly pulling him and the US further and further into this fight. Tiny little incremental commitments till we're waist deep in it. Hope I'm wrong - but make no mistake about it THIS Israeli war cabinet led by Bibi make Dick Cheney, Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton look like Ghandi in terms of their desire to use military force.

 

 

Damn, you're a cynical son-of-a-bitch. You were right about Ukraine....for which you have my respect.  DJT will get dragged into this kicking and screaming.

Only if Bibi can't handle them. Remains to be seen.

 

I'm mystified as to what you think Bibi should have done.

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, whiskybravo said:

 My advice to those attending no kings rallies is to wave the American flag.  It wasn’t  a good look in LA to see  foreign flags waved and American ones burned. In fact it was very beneficial, again from a political point of view, to Republicans.

 

The backlash has been pretty severe on this idiots, so they are passing out American flags to these protesters, since the optics to regular Americans has been toxic.

 

It won't fool anyone. They hate America and what it stands for..

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

@Viking Iran's objective is no model/approach for peace.  Otherwise you are correct.  The Abraham Accords were well on their way to furthering friendly relations in the region.  It is not constructive to focus on individuals; leaders like Bibi and Trump come and go.  Israel has prospered and done well under many different leaders and its relationships with Jordan and Egypt have survived even when those countries were having their own issues.  Extremist regimes are the cause of the problem.  From the day Israel became an independent State [Country] in 1948 it was under attack.  It has spent its entire existence defending itself against surrounding enemies.  Anyone who believes Israel wants anything but peace with its neighbors is delusional and historically ignorant.  The fact of the matter is, Israel represents a geographical blip on the radar of the Middle East (about the size of the State of Ohio). With no oil and no more resources than its immediate neighbors to the north, east and and south, Israel has built itself into a powerhouse nation in a mere 77 years from almost nothing.  What many don't understand is that there are wealthy Arab communities in the heart of Israel and they want nothing to do with their Palestinian brothers and sisters who serve as Iranian proxies in the adjacent territories; why would they - these Arabs live great lives - they are professionals, business owners and some own magnificent homes, the likes of which most people in this country would be envious.  Like Israelis, they simply want to be left alone to co-exist and prosper.  But unless one has been there and experienced life in the successful experiment - against all odds- known as Israel, one would never know from the non-stop agenda-driven nonsense we read and see every day in the media that Israelis and Arabs can co-exist and once extremist hatred is permanently removed from the equation, all people in the region can and will have brighter futures. 

 

Very well put. And @Viking  as well.

Edited June 13, 2025 by cubsfan

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

That's only semantics.  Israel will do what it wants and when without anyone's permission when its survival is at stake.  Had Iran come this close to nukes under Biden, Israel would likely have not even given us the courtesy of a heads-up.  Because Israel acted alone, the US is in the same position as a negotiator as it was yesterday at this time.  The "Iranian point of view" is only that of its ruling regime, not its people.  The majority of Iranians would like nothing better than to be rid of them.    

Actually the reward for letting the US know is that Trump basically blurted out 12h before that it will happen. I am not sure it matters in this case, but if you are an ally, you look at this and probably don’t want to Trump/Hegseth to know what you plan to do, because they can’t keep their mouth shut.

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, Spekulatius said:

Actually the reward for letting the US know is that Trump basically blurted out 12h before that it will happen. I am not sure it matters in this case, but if you are an ally, you look at this and probably don’t want to Trump/Hegseth to know what you plan to do, because they can’t keep their mouth shut.

 

So what you're saying is that the Iranians are morons because they all got smoked in spite of the fact that Trump let them know.

 

Tell us another fairy tail.

[Spekulatius]

Iran needs Israel as a scapegoat and enemy for political reasons. The regime is concerned about politic unrest  and nothing is better to rally the people and troops  than a common enemy.

The question now is how far are they willing to escalate. They could threaten the Hormuz Straight which would essentially stop ship traffic from entering and exiting the Persian Gulf and at this point the US would likely enter the theatre with the Navy.

Edited June 13, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Red Lion]

1 hour ago, Eldad said:

Strange to me that Mossad keeps giving the play by play of how smart they are and everything they do. First with the Hezbollah radios and now this. 

With the pager bombs, how could they not? I’d be bragging about that one too. 
 

But to answer the question, to instill fear in their opponents? 

[Xerxes]

4 hours ago, Viking said:

 

Are Egypt and Jordan not instructive examples in terms of what Israel wants? Both countries normalized relations with Israel long ago. All three countries now peacefully coexist - and they have for decades. 

 

What happened? Egypt and Jordan recognized Israel's right to exist. They also decided they no longer wanted to kill Israeli's. 

 

Saudi Arabia was poised to normalize relations with Israel - and Iran and their proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis) decided that couldn't happen and Hamas attacked Israel.

 

We have two very different models/approaches to getting to peace in the Middle East. I think Egypt/Jordan's model is the better path to peace in the Middle East than Iran's. I think Israel wants the Egypt/Jordan path. But I am by no means an expert of what is going on there. So I will try and remain open minded to understanding the situation.  

wrong on two fronts 

 

1) While Egypt and Jordan approach has been a “breakthrough” when it happened in Camp David. They are by no means warm relations. 
 

The aspirational model is that of Abraham Accord with UAE. 

 

2) Oct 7th was a Hamas operation to derail Saudi joining Abraham. Even Israelis know that.
 

What evidence do you have to make a claim that Iran was involved in planning of that operation.
 

Hamas is as sovereign as Israel is when it comes to enact its foreign policy.  

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Actually the reward for letting the US know is that Trump basically blurted out 12h before that it will happen. I am not sure it matters in this case, but if you are an ally, you look at this and probably don’t want to Trump/Hegseth to know what you plan to do, because they can’t keep their mouth shut.

 

I think Trump, ever the salesman, as soon as he figured that the operation was a success, he positioned himself as a co-sponsor of the wining hand, even “talking up” U.S.  equipment(s)/hardware. 
 

he is the best