Political Posts

[Parsad]

https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/05/climate/china-nuclear-fusion/index.html

 

Nobody builds shit faster!   

 

Cheers!

[rogermunibond]

More accessible link

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/images-show-china-building-huge-fusion-research-facility-analysts-say-2025-01-28/

[Spekulatius]

I pretty much agree :

 

 

[cubsfan]

^^^^

This guy is pretty much an idiot. He's blaming the weakening of Europe on Trump, when in fact, Trump has been in office 2 weeks - and the Ukraine war has been going on 3 years. 

Joe Biden did nothing to deter the Russian aggression UNTIL the war was well underway.

He practically gave Putin the green light to invade - and of course, since Biden was compromised by Ukrainian bribes - he finally responded. And good thing he did, to save the western part of Ukraine.

 

And now, this so-called expert says - NATO is weakened , when in fact, the leader of NATO

has thanked President Trump many times for strengthening NATO with dramatically increased funding.  No mention of that fact by this genius. It blows his narrative.

 

The war in Ukraine is LOST. The Russians have all the momentum. Look for a settlement that looks like North/South Vietnam BEFORE South Vietnam was totally lost to the communist. Ukrainian losses have been far too high. The government of Ukraine is highly corrupt (hence Biden would not allow military funds to be audited). The President has pretty much stated he's not going to throw good money after bad - but will do everything in his power to end the war. The best that will happen now - is a Ukraine that has lost significant territory - and a fortified DMZ.

 

This guy talks about "deterrence".

Deterrence was needed BEFORE this war started - not when it is lost.

 

And the  Europeans are nowhere to be found - and somehow -it's the United States that is responsible?  Where are the European troops? Why has the US supplied $300B in aid, but Europe has only supplied $100B?

 

 

 

[John Hjorth]

5 hours ago, cubsfan said:

... And the  Europeans are nowhere to be found - and somehow -it's the United States that is responsible?  Where are the European troops? Why has the US supplied $300B in aid, but Europe has only supplied $100B?

 

IFW - Kiel Institute for World Economy [February 6^th 2025] : Ukraine Support Tracker - Total bilateral aid: Government allocations in % of GDP.

 

Screen shot today :

 

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

<Do not let facts confuse you.>

[Spekulatius]

ThenUS aid is far less than $300B - I am not sure where this number is coming from. I think the goal disbursals are roughly $100B  This is particular true if you look that much of USA aid are donations of obsolete US equipment.

 

However, that’s not that material to what Nielsen says.. The material thing is that Trump rips up long standing agreements, threatens allies and has questioned article 5, which is at the core of NATO. That undermines NATO and sooner or later will lead to a test incident.

 

As I said, MAGA is really more the USA going alone as Peter Zeihan predicted.

[cubsfan]

3 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

IFW - Kiel Institute for World Economy [February 6^th 2025] : Ukraine Support Tracker - Total bilateral aid: Government allocations in % of GDP.

 

Screen shot today :

 

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

<Do not let facts confuse you.>

 

I never let the facts confused me.  

 

The major point, is that Europe is far stronger today because of a much stronger military alliance with NATO - meanwhile, the clown in the video is whining about President Trump -who forced the issue of increased NATO contributions and military strength.  

 

Congratulations to the European nations for waking up to the Russian threat. I'm quite sure Europe with be fully prepared from now on. Containing the Russian bear is a SHARED responsibility , not the sole responsibility of the USA.

 

 

[cubsfan]

@John Hjorth @Spekulatius

 

Statement from Secretary General of NATO - Mark Rutte - January 25, 2025

 

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_232545.htm

 

Not sure why guys claim everything in direct contradiction of the Secretary General of NATO.
He was very clear in his statement re: USA funding vs European funding.

Completely dismisses Anders Nielsen and his silly video.

 

excerpts: 

 

 the problem is not the US, the problem is Europe. The problem is that – and Trump has consistently made this point - that in Europe, we are underspending in terms of defence.  

 

And I think, thanks partly also to him, and maybe to a large extent, we have seen this upturn in spending in NATO on the European side. And he felt that basically, the US was getting a bad deal, and that Europe was basically is funding its social model and its health care system, etc, and its pension system by underfunding in defence.

 

The problem, of course, is that we are not yet all at 2% - that’s problem number one. Problem number two is that 2% is not nearly enough.

 

We are safe now, but NATO collectively is not able to defend itself in four or five years if we stick to the 2%

 

But I can guarantee you, when you look at the incoming data now, 2% is not nearly enough. 

 

And on Ukraine. We need the US also to stay involved and to do as much as possible to get Ukraine in a position of strength and have the peace talks start. But I can tell the Europeans, if this new Trump administration is willing to keep on supplying Ukraine with defence industrial, from its defence industrial base, the bill will be paid by the Europeans. I'm absolutely convinced of this. We have to be willing to do that, because at this moment, they (USA) are paying more than the Europeans. And here Trump is right. It is a worldwide conflict, yes, but still, Ukraine is closer to Europe than to the US.

 

...... Don't let the facts confuse you.

Edited February 7, 2025 by cubsfan

[John Hjorth]

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

NATO - Public Diplomacy Division [June 12^th 2024] : Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2024)

 

Including :

 

 

And the absolute majority of member countries have been ramping up since June 2024 in a material way.

 

Here in Denmark we are already hitting 3.5 percent, by several specific political and defence decisions already taken.

 

I.e. shipbuilding decisions can move the needle in a material way.

 

And the political talk here in Denmark is about 5 percent now, and about how to get ends to meet in the state budget.

 

The ramp up takes time, there exist lead times on pretty much everything in all kinds of supply chains.

 

What naturally matters most for European countries as a whole is how UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain are doing with this. Please note their individual rank in the graph above, and think a bit about how these countries individual economic situations are : UK, Germany, France and Italy each already have their own separate national issues to deal with, and Spain is [as usual?] just the naughty boy in the class here.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

So, a peptalk to the laggards and ring kissing for Trump from Rutte, which is referred to by you above. Rutte is just doing the job he's paid to do with this talk. A bureucrat talking his book, which is naturally OK, but context still matters.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

<Talk is talk, data is data.>

 

 

[Spekulatius]

US Defence spending :$820B

US GDP: $2.7T.

 

Now I would subtract ~$100B from Defence spending because it is really welfare (veterans healthcare etc) which in other countries with universal healthcare comes out of a different bucket. If you don’t  believe me, check the Pentagon budget breakdown.

 

So call it ~$720B net which is  2.7% of GDP. Tell me where I am wrong.

https://www.defense.gov/Multimedia/Photos/igphoto/2002099941/

 

Yes, the USA spends more because it is a bigger economy.

 

[John Hjorth]

On 2/6/2025 at 3:55 AM, cubsfan said:

^^^^

This guy is pretty much an idiot. He's blaming the weakening of Europe on Trump, when in fact, Trump has been in office 2 weeks - and the Ukraine war has been going on 3 years. 

 

Joe Biden did nothing to deter the Russian aggression UNTIL the war was well underway.

He practically gave Putin the green light to invade - and of course, since Biden was compromised by Ukrainian bribes - he finally responded. And good thing he did, to save the western part of Ukraine.

 

And now, this so-called expert says - NATO is weakened , when in fact, the leader of NATO

has thanked President Trump many times for strengthening NATO with dramatically increased funding.  No mention of that fact by this genius. It blows his narrative.

 

The war in Ukraine is LOST. The Russians have all the momentum. Look for a settlement that looks like North/South Vietnam BEFORE South Vietnam was totally lost to the communist. Ukrainian losses have been far too high. The government of Ukraine is highly corrupt (hence Biden would not allow military funds to be audited). The President has pretty much stated he's not going to throw good money after bad - but will do everything in his power to end the war. The best that will happen now - is a Ukraine that has lost significant territory - and a fortified DMZ.

 

This guy talks about "deterrence".

Deterrence was needed BEFORE this war started - not when it is lost.

 

And the  Europeans are nowhere to be found - and somehow -it's the United States that is responsible?  Where are the European troops? Why has the US supplied $300B in aid, but Europe has only supplied $100B?

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

You need to be forced to study your own approach, methods and strategies for discussing  this matter.

 

Bringing - by now! -what the former POTUS did, or did not, into the discussion, why is that relevant for this discussion, forward looking?

 

As far as I've understood you're living in Chicago, and are  thereby a US citizen, living in a democracy, with a government body with two chambers by constituon, and yet you still blame one US citizen for all this mess. Is that person, and thereby USA, thereby also you, responsible for the actual situation we discuss here?

 

Or do you question the presidential election outcome [the US peoples opinion] four years ago?

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

That said, Anders Puck Nielsen, also to me personally, has now crossed a line, where I don't understand any longer how it's possible for him to continue these personal activities of his, all while maintaining his employment in the Danish military, as a Danish public servant.

 

If I was his superior, he would by now had been called to my office for a talk - short one :

 

Anders, pick one of those :

 

1. Putting you signature on a written, personal & instant cease and desist statement on my public activities on matters that releates to the security of the Danish State, because these activities aren't compatiable with my military employment.

 

2. I hereby resign effective x.x.2025.

 

3. Me firing you, because you refused to both the alternatives 1. and 2.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Here is an e-mail that I received from Anders Puck Nielsen yesterday at 17:25 [, and I don't mind sharing it, because his mailing list is public accessible] :

 

 

Yoy don't need to click to get the answer to you question : DKK 249.00 per ticket, from Billetto :

 

 

Text translation :

Danish :

 

Quote

Beskrivelse

Overskuddet fra dette foredrag vil gå ubeskåret til ukrainske medics og læger ved fronten

 

translates to English by :

Quote

Description

The proceeds from this lecture will go entirely to Ukrainian medics and doctors at the front

 

Samuel Rachlin, author of a book about Putin, called 'I, Putin', ref. one of my earlier posts in this topic, is as such today independent, Anders Puck Nielsen is not.

[cubsfan]

8 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

<Talk is talk, data is data.>

 

Good one @John Hjorth  !

 

I did not realize that Secretary General of NATO was a Trump Toadie - yeah, sure.

 

Your numbers for 2024 are estimates, and the Europeans have had 8 years to hit the targets!

I mean WTF???

 

As of January 25th - not looking so good, and you can hate Trump all you want, sorry it took him to get NATO in line.

 

Don't shoot the messenger!

 

Peace

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Samuel Rachlin, author of a book about Putin, called 'I, Putin', ref. one of my earlier posts in this topic, is as such today independent, Anders Puck Nielsen is not.

 

You and I agree for once, the Dane Anders Puck Nielsen, is a clown show.

We have LOTS of them in America too - so I won't hold it against Denmark.

 

Congrats on your 3.5% goal for NATO - seriously!

 

Get the rest of your NATO members in line.

[John Hjorth]

2 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Good one @John Hjorth  !

 

I did not realize that Secretary General of NATO was a Trump Toadie - yeah, sure.

 

Your numbers for 2024 are estimates, and the Europeans have had 8 years to hit the targets!

I mean WTF???

 

As of January 25th - not looking so good, and you can hate Trump all you want, sorry it took him to get NATO in line.

 

Don't shoot the messenger!

 

Peace

 

I'm now giving up on you here in this topic, Mike [ @cubsfan ].

 

Yoy are just 'slinging numbers' around you with no data basis initially, and when the numbers *BS* by you is called, etc., you just move on to new 'statements' or what ever you may call it.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Above I posted a graph showing NATO 2024e numbers as of a date in June 2024 [, as the best estimate available, by then], and then you are contuining your posings of backward looking statements like :

 

25 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Your numbers for 2024 are estimates, and the Europeans have had 8 years to hit the targets! I mean WTF???

 

Get real, or you - for my part - get ignored. Enough here.

 

[cubsfan]

@John Hjorth Sorry John.  The Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, raised a SERIOUS issue in regards to NATO funding and NATO's future.  You don't like it?  

It's a serious shortfall in European funding - not my words - his. Get serious about the real problem here - it's not the US funding.  It's about European nations meeting their commitments quickly, without excuses.

 

Try reading his words:

 

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_232545.htm

 

[John Hjorth]

You really don't understand a whit of what this is about for the Ukrainian people, nor do you even try to understand, Mike [ @cubsfan ], I'm not going, from this point on,  to comment on your posts here in this topic going forward [waste of time], unless they derails totally, into the extremes.

[cubsfan]

The Ukraine war needs to be settled before every young man in Ukraine dies.

If that does not happens, then Europe will be called on to send their young men to die in front of the inexhaustible supply of men from Russia.  I do not think you can count on the USA to send soldiers, therefore, it will be up to Europe to continue the meat grinder.

 

I seriously doubt Ukraine ever sees NATO membership, as Putin has proved his point and now holds large swaths of Ukrainian territory. The sanctions don't seem to have had much of an impact. The Russians seem to be cranking out massive amounts of munitions & artillery with their war-time economy.  It does not seem that time is on Ukraine's side.

 

The finale is the message to NATO - arm up to protect the rest of Europe. You have a serious threat on your borders.

Good luck.

[cubsfan]

BTW - I think it's pretty clear what is going to happen next.

 

The current adminstration is going to attempt to end the carnage in Ukraine.

If the Europeans don't grab the lead on this - then President Trump will.

How he forces a deal - I'm not sure - but it looks like it's coming.

 

Both sides, Zelensky & Putin - are dug in. But Ukraine will need Europe & possibly, the USA to continue the war. Putin looks like he can easily continue the war - so that is a huge problem for Ukraine.  Ukraine is not dealing from a position of strength, as significant support may be withdrawn in terms of military aid.

 

Think that one over.

[John Hjorth]

Hi Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

Thank for your latest two posts. They are to me personally, materially different - at least, to me, in positive way - from what you have posted lately in this topic.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Certainly something to think about in this situation. So, thank you.

 

What happens inside my head, every time I try mentally pursue your line of thinking, every mental scenario 'collapses' by that we can't live with - as Europeans - to have a country in Europe the size of Ukraine [a grain chamber] existing as giant a demilitarized zone, up against Russia, existing based on welfare from other countries, including USA.

 

A giant European DMZ wasteland - because of this initial Russian agression - is simply not an option - for us Europeans.

 

All we Europeans not already attacked, already face a huge bill on.

Edited February 8, 2025 by John Hjorth

[cubsfan]

@John Hjorth You're welcome.

 

It's going to be an interesting few months coming up. 

[John Hjorth]

Mike [ @cubsfan ], @Spekulatius, @UK et. al.,

 

How do you asses recent developments, within the last few days? Are we by now able to see the end of these warfare activities, to stop all the meaningless madness.

[Spekulatius]

Which news are you referring to?

 

Russians are crushing it:

 

[cubsfan]

On 2/9/2025 at 3:43 PM, John Hjorth said:

Mike [ @cubsfan ], @Spekulatius, @UK et. al.,

 

How do you asses recent developments, within the last few days? Are we by now able to see the end of these warfare activities, to stop all the meaningless madness.

 

Trump isn't saying much. We'll have to see what he and Putin have up their sleeves.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-it-neither-confirms-nor-denies-trump-putin-phone-call-2025-02-10/

 

 

[nsx5200]

China to boost residents' income to spur spending | Reuters

Looks like they're finally trying to juice Chinese consumer into more spending.

[rogermunibond]

FT column on China and it's trade advantages.  The size of China monthly exports to emerging countries is rather astounding.

 

https://on.ft.com/3CJtRt4

Edited February 11, 2025 by rogermunibond