Political Posts

[UK]

2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Damn! [in a positive way, -not kidding!],

 

I personally appreciate very much all the input I get almost every day in this topic about this calamity, and how to at least try to think about it, and about how to bring the warfare activities to an end. For my personal part, it actually occupies quite a bit of my mind on a daily basis these days, likely because I live relatively close by.

 

This also includes keeping the ongoing dialogue and discussion civil on an ongoing basis. [I'm by the way pretty sure this topic would suffer the death with a sudden [and silent] *poof* if it was not so - it is like the topic is and exist here on 'tolerated stay', like some most wanted terrorist on a real vacation somewhere, without getting recognized.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Thank you.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-31/ukraine-must-be-allowed-to-use-f-16s-inside-russia-denmark-says

 

[UK]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

This picture,,,,  likely not the best way to enter into a ceasefire or settlement talk.

 

 No doubt. And no one from the plenty hawks has yet articulated what winning even means in this case.

[cubsfan]

11 minutes ago, UK said:

 

 No doubt. And no one from the plenty hawks has yet articulated what winning even means in this case.

 

That is exactly right. I can't speak to Europe, but the Biden administration can not define the end game.

[Xerxes]

I saw some reports that the Russian are building trench around the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk.  
 

So if Kursk is a huge tactical victory, it may end up being a strategic mistake, if Moscow doesn’t take the bait. And pushes on. 
 

The good professor on SkyNews said the same thing on his channel. 

[John Hjorth]

21 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I saw some reports that the Russian are building trench around the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk.  
 

So if Kursk is a huge tactical victory, it may end up being a strategic mistake, if Moscow doesn’t take the bait. And pushes on. 
 

The good professor on SkyNews said the same thing on his channel. 

 

Both Putin and the good professor on SkyNews have misunderstood - What is going on in Kursk is 'just' an Ukrainian Special Military Operation.  <Sorry, I coulden't help it>

[Xerxes]

3 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Both Putin and the good professor on SkyNews have misunderstood - What is going on in Kursk is 'just' an Ukrainian Special Military Operation.  <Sorry, I coulden't help it>

 

 

For clarity, by the professor I meant, Professor Clark from SkyNews and not Mearshiemer.

 

The former is a military analyst, while the latter is a Realpolitikist who does not have a problem to call a spade a spade.

While Mearshiemer speaks his mind, on military matters, I will go with professor Clark.  

 

On Special Operations, well let us not forget that the last time U.S. Congress declared war on any nation was in Dec 1941, and it has been a roller coaster of "special operations" since then till today. With a couple of U.N. mandate special operations thrown in between (thinking Korea and Kuwait).

 

Though technically, it might have been actually 1942, as per Wiki, U.S. went to war against other Axis powers in 1942.

 

Declaration of war by the United States - Wikipedia

 

[Xerxes]

On 8/16/2024 at 8:51 AM, Xerxes said:

Looks like I was wrong and way off, the culprit was not Poland. 
 

According to WSJ, it was the ex-Ukrainian general, and few drunken men that decided to blow up Nord Stream. 
 

Read “ex-Ukrainian general, and few drunken men” ==> unsanctioned lose canons and mavericks

plot thickens. 

a new suspect in the Nord Stream case ? 
 

[UK]

9 hours ago, UK said:

For my personal part, it actually occupies quite a bit of my mind on a daily basis these days, likely because I live relatively close by.

 

I would consider your are far enough, at least for a 'boots on the ground' type risk, but of course, the closer you are, the sronger this mind occupation...and empathy perhaps. Oh and btw, few days ago it was 31 year anniversary of a situation I hope (but not sure) will continue for at least anoter 30 years.

 

Article from a year ago: https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2066608/red-army-go-home-how-lithuania-expelled-russian-troops-30-years-ago

[Xerxes]

8 hours ago, UK said:

 

I would consider your are far enough, at least for a 'boots on the ground' type risk, but of course, the closer you are, the sronger this mind occupation...and empathy perhaps. Oh and btw, few days ago it was 31 year anniversary of a situation I hope (but not sure) will continue for at least anoter 30 years.

 

Article from a year ago: https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2066608/red-army-go-home-how-lithuania-expelled-russian-troops-30-years-ago

i was in Iran in the 80s, the Soviets being there for ten years and the finally withdrawing barely registered on the VIX. 
 

granted I was just a kid. But I was watching news all the time. 

 

[John Hjorth]

 

Well, wasen't that my line, - not yours, @UK? 

[UK]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keep_Calm_and_Carry_On

[Dinar]

9 hours ago, UK said:

 

I would consider your are far enough, at least for a 'boots on the ground' type risk, but of course, the closer you are, the sronger this mind occupation...and empathy perhaps. Oh and btw, few days ago it was 31 year anniversary of a situation I hope (but not sure) will continue for at least anoter 30 years.

 

Article from a year ago: https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2066608/red-army-go-home-how-lithuania-expelled-russian-troops-30-years-ago

Dude, the Baltics were part of the Russian empire from 1740s (called Kurland) until 1917.  Then USSR 1939-1941, Germany (1941-1944), and then USSR again 1944-1990.  Lithuania did NOT expel Russian troops, there was the Soviet Army, and Lithuania did not have the ability to do it.  After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia left voluntary.  Lithuania never had the means to expel anyone.  Might as well say that Austria expelled the Soviet troops in 1955....  

[UK]

19 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Dude, the Baltics were part of the Russian empire from 1740s (called Kurland) until 1917.  Then USSR 1939-1941, Germany (1941-1944), and then USSR again 1944-1990.  Lithuania did NOT expel Russian troops, there was the Soviet Army, and Lithuania did not have the ability to do it.  After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia left voluntary.  Lithuania never had the means to expel anyone.  Might as well say that Austria expelled the Soviet troops in 1955....  

 

True, but I did not said that, only that we got lucky big time (some more post ago) and I would be happy to see this situation to continue.

 

Btw we got lucky big time not once, e.g.: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_coup_attempt

 

I am rooting for this stroke of luck not to end.

 

Edited September 2, 2024 by UK

[John Hjorth]

2 hours ago, UK said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keep_Calm_and_Carry_On

 

To understand your line of posting in this topic, I hope you woulden't mind to share a little about what's in your backpack by your history and where you live today. It's pretty darn impossible to relate to your postings in this topic without this information.

 

The above hereby posted based on that I've personally never felt that I've lost any part of my privacy by posting here on CoBF, that I'm a Dane, living in Denmark.

 

Thank you, no  matter how you may prefer to reply. It is - after all - just about clarity.

[UK]

31 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

To understand your line of posting in this topic, I hope you woulden't mind to share a little about what's in your backpack by your history and where you live today. It's pretty darn impossible to relate to your postings in this topic without this information.

 

The above hereby posted based on that I've personally never felt that I've lost any part of my privacy by posting here on CoBF, that I'm a Dane, living in Denmark.

 

Thank you, no  matter how you may prefer to reply. It is - after all - just about clarity.

 

No problem John:). IIRC, you already had asked once and I answered, but still the same today, I live in Vilnius, Lithuania. So EU and NATO, but at the same time it is like only 36 km to our border with Belarus or only some 40 km from the new Astravets Nuclear Power Plant, which Belarusians have built here for not totally clear reasons:)

 

Edited September 2, 2024 by UK

[Dinar]

49 minutes ago, UK said:

 

No problem John:). IIRC, you already had asked once and I answered, but still the same today, I live in Vilnius, Lithuania. So EU and NATO, but at the same time it is like only 36 km to our border with Belarus or only some 40 km from the new Astravets Nuclear Power Plant, which Belarusians have built here for not totally clear reasons:)

 

If you had a choice between spending the summer in Yurmala, German Baltic coast or Italy/Spain/Greece, which would you choose?  If you would not choose Yurmala, why not?  Thank you.

[UK]

58 minutes ago, Dinar said:

If you had a choice between spending the summer in Yurmala, German Baltic coast or Italy/Spain/Greece, which would you choose?  If you would not choose Yurmala, why not?  Thank you.

 

If strictly in summer, for me it would be easy to answer: I avoid Baltic coast in our country in peak months (June-August), because it is very crowdy and expensive at this time, and I am afraid same would be true for Jurmala. The other part of Latvian Baltic coast is way less crowdy, even in summer, but also with way less infrastructure, perhaps good only if you are ok with enjoying the nature with less people and much else to do (still the better option for me personally). The best time to visit Jurmala (as our Palanga) I think is early September, because the weather is still nice (or even like in the summer as currently is), but all bad things disappear right with the back to school season, not an option if you travel with kids though. Italy/Spain/Greece of course would be my choice, but the problem with recent summers, it could be really too hot, there is even a new word/trend, 'coolcation' I think, to describe this phenomena. Again late spring or early autumn perhaps would be a safer bet. So I have never been in German Baltic coast (or only from the side of Denmark:)), but I would chose this over other options (perhaps even adding some places in Poland, especially if you will use car), or even Scandinavia, depending on the circumstances, for the summer. E.g. Stockholm is very nice in the summer, you can be in the city, many things to do, and go to swim in the sea basically using public transport and for me it is same price/as easy to reach (thank you Ryanair) as Jurmala, so really no brainer vs our/Latvian Baltic Coast. But if you really want to visit Yurmala, maybe you can add Riga as well. I think it is also easy to reach from Yurmala by train or vice versa. 

 

Edited September 2, 2024 by UK

[Dinar]

@UK, thank you very much.  Yes, coming with three kids, tied to the school schedule, oldest will be 9 and youngest almost 4.   I would like to show my wife (born in Kiev) and my three kids (born in the US), the Baltics, so I would definitely go to Tartu, Talinn, Riga, Kaunas, Vilnius.  None of us have been to Krakow, and I have never been to Scandinavia.  For the kids' first European trip, I was debating between beach and culture (Prague, Paris.)  I was thinking of Spain (Barcelona, Valencia) since it is easy to combine beach and culture, but yes, I have heard of the recent heat waves over the last couple of years.  

[UK]

6 hours ago, Dinar said:

@UK, thank you very much.  Yes, coming with three kids, tied to the school schedule, oldest will be 9 and youngest almost 4.   I would like to show my wife (born in Kiev) and my three kids (born in the US), the Baltics, so I would definitely go to Tartu, Talinn, Riga, Kaunas, Vilnius.  None of us have been to Krakow, and I have never been to Scandinavia.  For the kids' first European trip, I was debating between beach and culture (Prague, Paris.)  I was thinking of Spain (Barcelona, Valencia) since it is easy to combine beach and culture, but yes, I have heard of the recent heat waves over the last couple of years.  

 

This sounds like a serious and nice plan! In such case, adding a few days for Jurmala or Nida (this is perhaps a nicest coast you can get in LT/LV) would not be bad, I was just sceptical of chosing them as the only place to visit/staying for long here:). Krakow is really nice, perhaps would be my top single city of Poland to visit, if I had to chose one (also Auschwitz is near, as is Energylandia). There are plenty of cheap flights or even overnight ferries from Stockholm to Riga (or perhaps also Tallin or Klaipeda), so personally I would include Stockholm or Copenhagen (or maybe even place such as Gotland), especially if in the middle of summer. Most of Scandinavia is very nice and summer, maybe +- one month, is really the only time to visit it, since it could be to cold in other time (same for Baltics:)).

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-07-03/norway-sweden-and-denmark-tourism-boosted-by-coolcation-trend

 

Edited September 3, 2024 by UK

[Hektor]

Reality check on de-risking China relationship!

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/02/india-china-manufacturing-supply-chains/

 

India’s growing reliance on China poses challenge for U.S. trade strategy

The United States is looking to Indian manufacturing as a way to reduce commercial ties with Chinese factories and avoid supply disruptions.

 

 

American businesses looking to reduce their reliance on China have increasingly been eyeing India in the past few years as a new manufacturing hub — and as a hedge against potential disruptions in Chinese supply chains caused by rising geopolitical tensions or another pandemic.

 

But as India has amped up its production of goods like smartphones, solar panels and medicine, the Indian economy itself has become even more dependent on Chinese imports, in particular for the components that go into these products, according to trade figures and economic analysts.

 

This dynamic serves as a reality check for U.S. policymakers, who have been urgently promoting efforts to diversify supply chains away from Chinese factories and “de-risk” the commercial relationship with China.

 

[WFF]

On 8/30/2024 at 9:27 PM, Hektor said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-considers-allowing-refinancing-5-035032297.html

 

China Considers Allowing Refinancing on $5.4 Trillion in Mortgages

 

Under the plan, homeowners would be able to renegotiate terms with their current lenders before January, when banks typically reprice mortgages, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified discussing private information. They would also be allowed to refinance with a different bank for the first time since the global financial crisis, the people said.

 

If approved, it may serve to ease mortgage burdens faster than expected. While China has pushed average mortgage costs to a record low this year, most households haven’t benefited since banks won’t reprice existing loans until next year.

 

China’s outstanding amount of individual mortgages stood at 38.2 trillion yuan ($5.4 trillion) at the end of March, and count as prime assets at Chinese lenders. More than 90% of China’s outstanding mortgages were for first homes as of late 2021, according to the latest public data available from the banking regulator.

China Merchant Bank said that they haven’t recieve opinion requests from the authorities (usually step 1), but if it does happen he expects a huge decline in mortgage interest incomes.  That said, I don’t think it will impact much, on an individual basis, as most that bought years ago, esp first time owners have LPR - first time owner discount.  The recent decline is small, though welcome but relieve won’t come until Jan, or when they pay in Feb.  if they can allow refinance to cash out the equity portion, that will help consumer tap into the equity portion, as many wants to tap but don’t want to sell given low prices. 

[nsx5200]

Interesting take on the structural economic issues that China's currently facing.

 

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-real-economic-crisis-zongyuan-liu

"Despite vehement denials by Beijing, Chinese industrial policy has for decades led to recurring cycles of overcapacity"

"In prioritizing industrial output, China’s economic planners assume that Chinese producers will always be able to offload excess supply in the global market and reap cash from foreign sales.  In practice, however, they have created vast overinvestment in production across sectors in which the domestic market is already saturated and foreign governments are wary of Chinese supply chain dominance."

"A larger problem with China’s reliance on local government to implement industrial policy is that it causes cities and regions across the country to compete in the same sectors rather than complement each other or play to their own strengths."

"These dynamics all contribute to a vicious cycle: firms backed by bank loans and local government support must produce nonstop to maintain their cash flow."

[Luke]

16 minutes ago, nsx5200 said:

Interesting take on the structural economic issues that China's currently facing.

 

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-real-economic-crisis-zongyuan-liu

"Despite vehement denials by Beijing, Chinese industrial policy has for decades led to recurring cycles of overcapacity"

"In prioritizing industrial output, China’s economic planners assume that Chinese producers will always be able to offload excess supply in the global market and reap cash from foreign sales.  In practice, however, they have created vast overinvestment in production across sectors in which the domestic market is already saturated and foreign governments are wary of Chinese supply chain dominance."

"A larger problem with China’s reliance on local government to implement industrial policy is that it causes cities and regions across the country to compete in the same sectors rather than complement each other or play to their own strengths."

"These dynamics all contribute to a vicious cycle: firms backed by bank loans and local government support must produce nonstop to maintain their cash flow."

What the financial media calls overproduction is just gaslighting. China is not allowed to participate in a market where the market participants find the right price for what is produced. Id gladly take a cheap EV but I am not allowed to buy it at the right price, henceforth china sits on lots of production it can't sell to me, a market participant looking for things. 

 

Everybody knows that once China is allowed to fully compete globally, 90% of industries will be immediately commoditized because there is (and soon wont be) no moat in cars, appliances, food, clothing etc (except for luxury nieches). That of course can not happen because the SP 500 trades at 30x earnings and would collapse, billionaires wont be billionaires, China would have even more control, capitalism as we know it changes from the financial engineered high margin system led by the US to a consumer oriented actual free market economy where the country that works the hardest, offers the best product and prices and hence earns the most money! 

 

 

 

Edited September 3, 2024 by Luke

[Luke]

BUT YOU CANT SUBSIDIZE YOUR COMPANIES (except if we do it its okay because whatever). 

BUT YOU CANT OVERPRODUCE (because all our capital backers will lose money and be angry)

 

Chose your fighter, would you rather be an ally with a country that has a huge industrial base for all sorts of things everyone needs, at cheap prices or would you want to be an ally with a country that has highly concentrated monopoly firms that will eat your own countries lunch, buy your politicians and squeeze the maximum price out of everyone's pocket? 

 

Thats why countries side with China, especially developed countries that want to rise up...because rising up is hard when everything is protected to death by patents and politics and you can make 30% margins selling toilet paper  

Edited September 3, 2024 by Luke

[Luke]

I think everybody in the western world would preorder an EV at the right price. It might be at a 2% margin for a Chinese player but at global scale that's still a lot of cash. But you cant guys! Because some shareholders and family owners don't want it! (of course they could just go bankrupt and then I work for a Chinese company that does everything better but they don't tell you that!)