Political Posts

[John Hjorth]

What I wrote above is also the official answer from Denmark to the former POTUS, when he suggested USA to acquire Greenland in like "it's just another real estate deal", and afterwards my PM Mette Frederiksen had a hard time afterwards defending her initial reponse blown out by the press all over, because it was impulsive, as if she was saying "get away from me!", after this ol' man was hitting on her! 

 

But as mentioned : With an internal catch.

 

And now we are full circle, if it's true she is a candidate for the next NATO Sectary General.

 

 

[shhughes1116]

On 6/20/2023 at 10:13 AM, cubsfan said:

 
Interesting/good input. Do you think the Russians can be expelled from Eastern Ukraine? Or are we destined for a stalemate whereby Crimea is conceded in order to return the East?

 

I do think Ukraine is capable of expelling Russia from Eastern Ukraine, Southern Ukraine, and Crimea, provided military support from the West continues.  But I question whether they have the political will to tolerate the level of causalities needed to sustain that effort across Southern Ukraine, Eastern Ukraine, and Crimea.  

 

If they liberate Crimea, what are they really liberating?  What is left of Ukraine in Crimea?  It is mainly Russian colonizers.  Do the Ukrainians really want to die for that when they can just turn off the water supply, drop the bridge, and watch Crimea wither away?   

 

Aside from Donetsk, there are large parts of Eastern Ukraine that still have Ukrainians present.  There is a reason to liberate those areas. 

 

Liberating Southern Ukraine and strangling Crimea puts Ukraine in a good position to make a grand bargain with Russia.  Concede Crimea to Russia in return for Russia leaving Eastern Ukraine.    Whether or not Russia would entertain this proposal is another question, and it sets a pretty terrible precedent for future "occupations".   

 

I still think it is possible that the Russian units in Southern Ukraine crack and rout.  If that's the case, I could see a Ukranian thunder-run via the Isthmus to Kerch.  If that happens, then I think Ukraine will fight for Eastern Ukraine rather than negotiate.      

 

 

 

[shhughes1116]

3 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

You've called a lot of things in Ukraine spot on. I'm curious to know what your thoughts are on the Russian deployment of helicopters to take out Ukrainian armor formations. It made sense for Russia to bench these on the offense after they lost a bunch but now this looks looks like a perfect setup for KA52s. They seem to be sitting 10kms out so they can't be hit with MANPADs and long-range AA is just too far. 

 

The Russians have a long line of fortifications protected by minefields.  But the mobik units have little or no ATGM capability, little or no organic armor or IFVs, and the Russian's mobile reserves and artillery are inadequate to support multiple parts of the line at the same time.   So the Alligators are used like a fire-fighting brigade - they are deploying the Alligators to compensate for lack of ATGMs along the line, and a lack of an armored reserve.   Drones spot Ukrainian armor columns and the Alligators show up in an effort to slow down or stop the column before it reaches the fortification line.  The Alligators mainly use guided munitions, so they can stand-off 5-10km and do this.  The older Russian helicopters use unguided rockets which are not suited for this application.  

 

Here are the problem that the Russians will have. 

1. The Alligator is a pretty good helicopter, but they have a limited number of Alligators.  Many have been shot down over the last year, and the remainder have been poorly maintained.  They will not be able to sustain this level of operations for a long period of time.

2. They consume a lot of fuel which comes via rail.  Lots of rail lines have been blown up recently.  Lack of fuel will make it hard to sustain this level of operations. 

3. Ukraine will adapt, either with Western 4th-gen fighters (future),or sending SOF into the Russian rear with MANPADS to start shooting down helicopters. 

 

By poking at multiple parts of the line in Southern Ukraine, Ukraine is forcing Russia to bring its maneuver units and aviation lose to the front line.  This exposes them to MANPADS, drone strikes and artillery fire, and starts to attrit them.  If and when the line cracks, the units that would have been deployed to stem the breach, or that would have been deployed to facilitate a fighting withdrawal, will be of little value.  Once the Ukrainians are into the rear, Mobiks along the line of fortifications will be stuck in place, and will likely die in place or surrender.    

 

 

[cubsfan]

@shhughes1116  Thanks for the terrific input. Regarding Crimea - do you consider the entire population pro-Russian? Have most all pro-Ukrainian's left for good?

[Luke]

https://www.ft.com/content/d0b94966-d6fa-4042-a918-37e71eb7282e

Western manufacturers will be able to de-risk their operations in China but will find it impossible to cut ties completely with the country, according to the head of one of the US’s largest aerospace and defence companies.

 

Greg Hayes, chief executive of Raytheon, said the company had “several thousand suppliers in China and decoupling . . . is impossible”.

 

“We can de-risk but not decouple,” Hayes told the Financial Times in an interview, adding that he believed this to be the case “for everybody”.

“Think about the $500bn of trade that goes from China to the US every year. More than 95 per cent of rare earth materials or metals come from, or are processed in, China. There is no alternative,” said Hayes.

 

 

Edited June 21, 2023 by Luca

[Spekulatius]

Interesting interview with Dimitry Muratov. I like the comment on the price of V and Z themed T- Shirts in Russia.

 

Sounds like young people in Russia are against the war, older people are for it and support Putin. Maybe more people should eat their own cooking.

Edited June 21, 2023 by Spekulatius

[shhughes1116]

15 hours ago, cubsfan said:

@shhughes1116  Thanks for the terrific input. Regarding Crimea - do you consider the entire population pro-Russian? Have most all pro-Ukrainian's left for good?

That’s a good question and one that I think is unanswerable at the moment with any level of confidence.  
 

I’m sure there are still some pro-Ukrainian people in Crimea, along with some people that support an independent state for Crimean Tatars.  Heck, there are probably people that were pro-Russian that have now become pro-Ukrainian.  But the consequences of speaking freely and publicly in areas occupied by Russia mean that we will never really know what the current “residents” of Crimea think.  

[Luke]

 

Interesting Graph from Bridgewater associates.

[Castanza]

16 hours ago, Luca said:

https://www.ft.com/content/d0b94966-d6fa-4042-a918-37e71eb7282e

Western manufacturers will be able to de-risk their operations in China but will find it impossible to cut ties completely with the country, according to the head of one of the US’s largest aerospace and defence companies.

 

Greg Hayes, chief executive of Raytheon, said the company had “several thousand suppliers in China and decoupling . . . is impossible”.

 

“We can de-risk but not decouple,” Hayes told the Financial Times in an interview, adding that he believed this to be the case “for everybody”.

“Think about the $500bn of trade that goes from China to the US every year. More than 95 per cent of rare earth materials or metals come from, or are processed in, China. There is no alternative,” said Hayes.

 

 

 

China likes to control the resources and the shovels needed to extract the resources. Both literally and figuratively. Take a look at the Congo and who owns the majority of those mines. Who moved into Afghanistan right after the US pulled out (likely for the lithium). Who's buying up shipping ports in distressed countries? It's a real problem for the Western world. The leadership of 80% of the Western World has been straight dogshit US, UK, Germany, France, Australia, NZ, Canada, EU countries. Utter garage. There is not a single leader I can look at and be like "Yeah, that's a person who instills confidence and is inspiring or making moves that will benefit the US down the line." 

 

When I look at Xi I see a guy who is laser focused on getting his country on the same page. A guy who has initiative and direction. Both in scope of high level and granular level stuff. I might not agree with the approach or methods used; but nobody can deny it. He might not be successful there are certainly a lot of negatives to deal with in China. But I can tell you this......He isn't spending his press conferences discussing his favorite ice cream flavor, inviting smooth brain celebrities to the Zhonghai, or discussing his childhood adventures or taking credit for job creation coming out of a global lockdown.....

 

There are a few niche areas the West still has the advantage in. Fortunately they are key areas, but they are under constant onslaught. 

 

________________________

 

Discussing investing in China is one thing. I don't do it personally. 

 

Discussing the changing world order is another. On this front, China is playing 4-D chess while the West is on their heels. 

[Luke]

Just now, Castanza said:

 

China likes to control the resources and the shovels needed to extract the resources. Both literally and figuratively. Take a look at the Congo and who owns the majority of those mines. Who moved into Afghanistan right after the US pulled out (likely for the lithium). Who's buying up shipping ports in distressed countries? It's a real problem for the Western world. The leadership of 80% of the Western World has been straight dogshit US, UK, Germany, France, Australia, NZ, Canada, EU countries. Utter garage. There is not a single leader I can look at and be like "Yeah, that's a person who instills confidence and is inspiring or making moves that will benefit the US down the line." 

 

When I look at Xi I see a guy who is laser focused on getting his country on the same page. A guy who has initiative and direction. Both in scope of high level and granular level stuff. I might not agree with the approach or methods used; but nobody can deny it. He might not be successful there are certainly a lot of negatives to deal with in China. But I can tell you this......He isn't spending his press conferences discussing his favorite ice cream flavor, inviting smooth brain celebrities to the Zhonghai, or discussing his childhood adventures or taking credit for job creation coming out of a global lockdown.....

 

There are a few niche areas the West still has the advantage in. Fortunately they are key areas, but they are under constant onslaught. 

 

________________________

 

Discussing investing in China is one thing. I don't do it personally. 

 

Discussing the changing world order is another. On this front, China is playing 4-D chess while the West is on their heels. 

Couldnt agree more. 

[crs223]

19 hours ago, Luca said:

 

Interesting Graph from Bridgewater associates.

 

Id like to know what went into computing “relative standing”.  that china curve is hard to take seriously… “relative standing” will be off the scale in 20 years

 

 

Edited June 23, 2023 by crs223

[Luke]

23 minutes ago, crs223 said:

 

Id like to know what went into computing “relative standing”.  that china curve is hard to take seriously… “relative standing” will be off the scale in 20 years

 

 

If i find more i will let you know. Chinas massive growth since 1980 is represented quite well in the graph, same is true for the dutch global trade dominance in 1600-1800. 

 

Id personally assume Chinas growth to decrease a bit but steadily increase still.

[james22]

Last year India surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation. That might be a marginal consideration until specifics are examined. The fact is, China’s population fell for the first time in 60 years, and China is now the fastest-aging nation in human history.

 

As most know, the population replacement rate is 2.1 children per woman. China’s 2011-2020 census (as far as CCP numbers can be trusted) shows their replacement rate is 1.3 at best. Peter Zeihan has reported the replacement rate of women in highly populated urban areas like Shanghai is 0.7!

 

Replacement rates, and these charts, tell us that China’s demographic collapse will occur within one generation – within a human lifetime! China’s worker-age population peaked in the last decade, and by 2050 will be less than half of what it was in 2020. The population collapse of China is not just starting, it is happening right now!

 

https://andmagazine.substack.com/p/china-is-a-dying-paper-dragon

[hillfronter83]

https://themarket.ch/interview/george-magnus-china-will-not-be-able-to-de-dollarize-under-xi-ld.9180

[cubsfan]

I thought these were  pretty good articles regarding the difficulty the Ukrainians seem to be experiencing with their offensive.  Looks like I'm gonna have to eat my words about the impact of technology making the difference. 

 

https://sputnikglobe.com/20230612/cynical-ukrainian-counteroffensive-takes-horrific-casualties-1111076303.html

 

https://amgreatness.com/2023/06/22/the-end-of-offensive-warfare/

 

 

[changegonnacome]

It’s artillery, economy & the number of male bodies you can put through the meat grinder here that matters most.

 

Population - Russia has Ukraine beat what 5 to 1 on the population piece and I don’t see a commitment where ‘we’ would be sending any of our young men to die.

 

Artillery - Russia is the master of its own destiny here….Ukraine not so much….id rather be Russia here.

 

Economy - like it or not Russia has a self-sustaining economy with petro dollars….Ukraine is on life support & completely reliant on the kindness of strangers.

 

I hate what Russia has done - but you ask me what position I’d like to be in across the above criteria - you would ask for the Russian set of cards every day of the week. 

[james22]

Coup?

 

 

[james22]

 

[james22]

 

[cubsfan]

27 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

It’s artillery, economy & the number of male bodies you can put through the meat grinder here that matters most.

 

Population - Russia has Ukraine beat what 5 to 1 on the population piece and I don’t see a commitment where ‘we’ would be sending any of our young men to die.

 

Artillery - Russia is the master of its own destiny here….Ukraine not so much….id rather be Russia here.

 

Economy - like it or not Russia has a self-sustaining economy with petro dollars….Ukraine is on life support & completely reliant on the kindness of strangers.

 

I hate what Russia has done - but you ask me what position I’d like to be in across the above criteria - you would ask for the Russian set of cards every day of the week. 

 

Coming around here.... not a very good start for the offensive.

 

Certainly don't seem to be getting much news on the offensive, which might be par for the course with the corrupt media hiding bad news...

[james22]

Prigozhin, whose Wagner troops have pulled back from Bakhmut, also attacked Russia’s current war efforts in the face of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

 

Directly contradicting Putin’s claims that Moscow has fended off Kyiv’s counterattack, Prigozhin also accused the Russian military leadership of lying to the public about the scale of its losses and setbacks in Ukraine.

 

“The Russian army is retreating in all directions and shedding a lot of blood … What they tell us is the deepest deception.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/23/wagner-chief-accuses-russias-military-of-attack-and-says-evil-leadership-must-be-stopped

[John Hjorth]

What is it with CoBF members posting in this topic, - then deleting their posts - "unfortunately" after getting some posts quoted by other CoBF members before deleting them?

[james22]

 

[cubsfan]

@james22 - thanks for the clips.

 

"The Fog of War" in action

[changegonnacome]

43 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Certainly don't seem to be getting much news on the offensive, which might be par for the course with the corrupt media hiding bad news...

 

The absense of news is a clue to how things are going. Omission is how our media filters information. Its certainly less horrible than the outright nonsense seen in other countries like Russia - we are lucky in that 'our' press is indeed the most free but its not immune to shaping the news around narratives/audiences/advertisers......Ukraine struggling to make headway with the offensive, after all our support and rhetoric, is counter to the narrative, fails to sell papers/clicks which loses you advertisers.

 

Our media aren't scumbags - but if/when things start going badly for the Ukrainians I would expect that we wouldn't hear about contemporaneously & in 'real-time' but rather a little after the fact and only when its hard to ignore. I would expect a little exaggeration too on Ukrainian successes. I think when you put that filter on things we are lucky to have a press/media as good as we do.