Political Posts

[shhughes1116]

On 1/18/2023 at 11:31 AM, Spekulatius said:

It's also interesting that these cruise missile systems didn't get intercepted by Russia and have been able to penetrate deep into Russian air space. One of the targeted airbases was close to Moscow. Ukraine may be able to fly one of these ones right into the Kremlin.

 
set aside radars and detection range for a moment.  You essentially have four types of air defense.

1. close-in shorad.  Something like the Gephard or dudes with an HMG on a truck. 

2.  Shorad.  Something like the NASAMS or Hawk or Aspide.  Range is maybe 15-20 miles.

3. medium range air defense.  Something like the patriot with a range of 15-100 miles.

4.  Long range / theater air defense.  Something like the THADD, with a range of maybe 150 miles.  
 

the Russians use different equipment but the concept is essentially the same.

 

With that in mind, think about the large landmass of Russia.  In order to create an impenetrable air defense curtain, you’d need a huge number of medium range and long-range air defense systems.  Russia doesn’t have this.  Neither does the West or China.  This equipment is expensive, hard to maintain, and hard to operate.  So you make a best guess about possible targets and attack vectors and place your equipment accordingly.  
 

Ukraine’s attacks deep in Russia are an important strategic move.  It is causing Russia to devote air defense assets towards the protection of targets in Russia.  This leaves Russian troops in Ukraine more exposed to drone attacks, missile attacks, and attacks by rotary and fixed wing aircraft. 
 

same concept was used by the British in 1941.  Bombing Germany caused a massive reallocation of resources (planes, AA, and personnel) from the front-lines to the inner parts of Germany.  In the long-run, this exposed/weakened German troops at the front.
 

 

 

[shhughes1116]

9 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Yes, i think Ukraine targeting Moscow is unlikely. In addition, the Kremlin is a world heritage site (just learned that when i looked it up), so that would be another argument against this particular target. 

 

I could see something along the lines happening just to force Russia to disperse resources. This would be similar thinking than the first British bombing raid on Berlin in 1941 that had only symbolic value, but led the Nazis to disperse large resources to protect German cities.

 

You hit the nail on the head.  The deep drone attacks force Russia to re-deploy scarce air defense assets away from Ukraine, or acknowledge to their people that they are vulnerable to attack.  

[Parsad]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/20/business/china-evergrande-hui-ka-yan-hnk-intl/index.html

 

At some point, the bank of China is not going to be able to continue acting as the shock absorber for these bad debts. 

 

Meaning...eventually they are going to have to go through their own Lehman/AIG moment! 

 

Cheers!

[Xerxes]

The WW2 analogies are based on a snapshot point in time.

 

If you add a time dimension to the analogies, a symblic Doolittle raid on Tokyo in April 1942 snowballed into Lemay firebombing of Tokyo in May 1945, some three years later !

[Spekulatius]

China (most just China) got to keep the lights on at night:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/shining-a-light-literally-on-how-much-dictators-manipulate-their-economic-stats-11674183190?mod=economy_lead_pos5

 

A recent paper, published in October, by the University of Chicago’s Luis Martinez shines a light on the extent to which autocratic governments might be juicing their estimates of gross domestic product, the commonly used measure of an economy’s size and might.

[Dinar]

It is not just China.  Do you trust US governmental statistics?  I for sure cannot reconcile CPI over the past three decades that I have lived here with how costs have changed.  Not for housing, healthcare, food, education, haircuts, newspapers, restaurants, take-out, and the list goes on.  

[no_free_lunch]

Given the discussion is on ww2, let's consider the rapid increase to weapons production during that period.   In the US, aircraft production went up close to 30 fold from 1940 to 1944.  This while increasingly the quality and complexity of the planes at the same time.  For instance, heavy bomber production actually went up 500 fold.   

 

I don't see why a similar production curve (possibly much larger) cannot happen for equipment such as autonomous drones.  In prior conflicts, what you usually see is this refinement and mass production of weapons that already existed at the start of the conflict.  I think this will happen here as well and drones seem like an obvious candidate.  

 

This type of tech could change the importance of troop levels or at least act as a multiplier. 

 

US combat aircraft production WW2

 

1940 plane production: 3,611

1942 plane production: 46,907

1944 plane production: 96,270

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_aircraft_production_during_World_War_II

Edited January 21, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[cubsfan]

^^^ Excellent post. And likely the reason Ukraine has such a strong chance against Russia. Much as I hate to see USA dedicate $100B a year to this war, then along with Europe adding billions for weapons - tough to see how Russia can not get buried, like Reagan buried them in the 80's.  Russia has manpower, but with a defense budget of $80B - they are in real trouble.

 

The wild card, of course, is nuclear weapons, which, in the hands of Putin - who the hell knows.

 

And my other fear - is just how much of that arms aid gets stolen by the Ukrainian corruption.

[Dinar]

18 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ Excellent post. And likely the reason Ukraine has such a strong chance against Russia. Much as I hate to see USA dedicate $100B a year to this war, then along with Europe adding billions for weapons - tough to see how Russia can not get buried, like Reagan buried them in the 80's.  Russia has manpower, but with a defense budget of $80B - they are in real trouble.

 

The wild card, of course, is nuclear weapons, which, in the hands of Putin - who the hell knows.

 

And my other fear - is just how much of that arms aid gets stolen by the Ukrainian corruption.

Reagan did not bury the USSR in 1980s.  The Afghan war and the collapse in petroleum prices did the trick.  

[cubsfan]

^^ Well, ok - how about excess spending on defense did the trick? 

 

If your enemies can outspend you by orders of magnitude - it's just a matter of time until you're done. You can't be running a sustained campaign when you're solely dependent on a commodity price like oil.

[no_free_lunch]

15 hours ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ Excellent post. And likely the reason Ukraine has such a strong chance against Russia. Much as I hate to see USA dedicate $100B a year to this war, then along with Europe adding billions for weapons - tough to see how Russia can not get buried, like Reagan buried them in the 80's.  Russia has manpower, but with a defense budget of $80B - they are in real trouble.

 

The wild card, of course, is nuclear weapons, which, in the hands of Putin - who the hell knows.

 

And my other fear - is just how much of that arms aid gets stolen by the Ukrainian corruption.

 

The best way to keep track of the arms is to send more advisers to Ukraine.

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

^^ Well, ok - how about excess spending on defense did the trick? 

 

If your enemies can outspend you by orders of magnitude - it's just a matter of time until you're done. You can't be running a sustained campaign when you're solely dependent on a commodity price like oil.

No.  Look at US or USSR in Afghanistan or US in Vietnam, or China in Vietnam.  Or go back to in time and look at Mongols, Arabs in 7th century AD, Ottoman Turks, and the list goes on.  

 

[no_free_lunch]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

No.  Look at US or USSR in Afghanistan or US in Vietnam, or China in Vietnam.  Or go back to in time and look at Mongols, Arabs in 7th century AD, Ottoman Turks, and the list goes on.  

 

 

Those first 3 examples, Ukraine is the equivalent of Afghanistan / Vietnam.  The defender with nothing left to lose.  In those cases to actually achieve superiority of production (if it happens), would further the gap.  Also note that those were all guerilla wars, this is a conventional war.

 

 What we learned from ww2 is that when armies start to adapt similar tactics it does come down to some multiple of quality x quantity.

 

If this was the Mongolian invasion then it would for sure be over already.  We have already seen that these 2 armies are at least roughly comparable.

[Xerxes]

There is an interesting bit on why M1 are not suitable for Ukraine and why Leopold II are the best bet. 
 

M1 is indeed running on a gas turbine engine. Powered by Honeywell !! 

 

https://aerospace.honeywell.com/us/en/products-and-services/product/hardware-and-systems/engines/agt-1500

 

A shame though as those armoured beasts were design to operate in the battlefield of Eastern Europe fighting off the Warsaw Pact, and we are not going to get see that.  
 

 

[Dinar]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-weapons-industry-unprepared-for-a-china-conflict-report-says-11674479916?mod=hp_lead_pos4

 

Left unsaid is that we can't handle another 12 months of the war in Ukraine.  

[no_free_lunch]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-weapons-industry-unprepared-for-a-china-conflict-report-says-11674479916?mod=hp_lead_pos4

 

Left unsaid is that we can't handle another 12 months of the war in Ukraine.  

 

We can afford it. Its less than half a percent of gdp for most countries. Meanwhile we are building up our armaments industries.  We do need European countries to carry a greater load but yes its quite doable.  The alternative of course is to sign some peace treaty and Russia and allies learns they can get away with this shit.  

[Xerxes]

Nothing to do with people getting away or not getting away. Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney and George Bush all got away from it. The world didn’t stop turning. 

 

Support should continue (or not continue) for the right reason: geopolitical, humanitarian and economical (ramp up the war industry or not). The combination of these vs. alternative. 

[ValueArb]

43 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Nothing to do with people getting away or not getting away. Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney and George Bush all got away from it. The world didn’t stop turning. 

 

Support should continue (or not continue) for the right reason: geopolitical, humanitarian and economical (ramp up the war industry or not). The combination of these vs. alternative. 

every dictator has a cost/benefits model in their head. If they see a worst case scenario for Putin end with him still controlling Crimea and Donbas they are going to be more likely to commit to their own invasions think the west will tire quickly like they did with Putin.

 

this is all theoretical anyways given there is no way Ukraine is going to agree to any peace deal with Russian troops still in the Don Bas or Crimea. And now way should we end our support no matter how long it takes. 

[crs223]

On 1/20/2023 at 5:51 PM, Dinar said:

It is not just China.  Do you trust US governmental statistics?

 

I think it would be easy to identify fraud in US stats relative to China given all the data available for research.  My uninformed understanding is that people get black-bagged in China for speaking out against the party narrative.

 

Example: administration might say “no recession” but individuals can crunch the numbers themselves and come to a different conclusion.

[Dinar]

37 minutes ago, crs223 said:

 

I think it would be easy to identify fraud in US stats relative to China given all the data available for research.  My uninformed understanding is that people get black-bagged in China for speaking out against the party narrative.

 

Example: administration might say “no recession” but individuals can crunch the numbers themselves and come to a different conclusion.

Have you looked at the US CPI statistics?  Take a look at food, healthcare, housing, education, services, et all over the past 50 years and see if you can reconcile with official inflation measures.  I have lived in the US for 33 years, official inflation was 120% (CPI went from 134.2 on 12/31/90 to 298.349 on 12/30/2022).   I say not true.  

In terms of food, prices have more than tripled, and closer to 4x for fish.  In terms of healthcare, going back to February of 2009, health insurance prices are up 5x for the same policy.  And I would wager there was no deflation in healthcare between 1990 and 2009.  Education - Yale tuition+room&board = $27K in 1995, and $80K+ this year.  Services: haircut in Manhattan went from 12 in 2001 to $35 in 2023 for a male.  Restaurants - Per Se in 2004 pre-fix = $125, today =  $350 plus...  (CPI = 185.5 on 12/31/2003 and 298.35 on 12/31/2022.) 

Housing: harder to compare, but NYC rents increased three-four fold since 1990 based on anecdotal evidence/personal experience.  

 

This is why I do not trust US government statistics.  Do not start me on quality adjustments and other tricks. Somehow if I ate lobster and it doubled in price, I automatically switch to chicken, so there is no inflation.   My first laptop lasted 8 years - IBM thinkpad, top of the line Dell's break within two years (happened to five Dells that I owned, before I stopped buying from Dell.)  We inherited a baby carriage from sister-in-law, the carriage lasted 4 kids and 15 years, my wife decided to buy new, top-of-the line from the same brand since she was ashamed of the looks she was getting at our private day-care in Manhattan.  New top-of-the line Uppa Baby broke within twelve months.  Same story with jackets - zippers no longer last more than 24 months, Mephisto shoes used to last a decade, now break within 24 months and the list goes on.  

 

[vinod1]

There is no government manipulation of inflation data. It is just a difficult thing to measure and the bureaucrats actually do a pretty good job. One of the few. 

 

Inflation is highly personal and each of us experience differently. As they say our personal experience trumps any data. I bought a Camry LE in 1997 for $19,500. Another Camry LE in 2011 for $20,000. PC's, phones, cameras, etc. All cheaper and better. There are a lot of clothes, shoes and other stuff that were outsourced and quality went down but they got cheaper. They became more of a use a few times and throw. 

 

There is a billion prices project that produces inflation figures similar to official data.

 

http://www.thebillionpricesproject.com/

 

Vinod

[crs223]

I’m not smart enough to compute inflation.

 

I still don’t believe US bureaucrats are manipulating the stats at a level similar to CCP.

 

If the USG is fooling the market, you can profit by selling inflation protected securities.

[Xerxes]

On 1/20/2023 at 7:31 PM, Spekulatius said:

of Chicago’s Luis Martinez shines a light on the extent to which autocratic governments might be juicing their estimates of gross domestic product, the commonly used measure of an economy’s size and might.

 

They learned this from Jack Welch

 

[Spekulatius]

Operation Blau 2.0:

Some good stuff getting some action - Abrahams, Leopards, Bradley's etc.

 

I think Abrahams were sent to force Olaf Stolz to sent Leo's as well since he had the lame excuse he didn't want to go alone...

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-germany-approves-sending-of-leopard-2-tanks/a-64506202

[Xerxes]

Every American general’s wet dream has been to see M1 Abrams roaming the fields of Eastern Europe. Even if they are symbolic to allow to more available Leopoldo get released. 
 

I think the purges in Kiev, the secret (not so secret) visit by CIA director and the tank approval are all linked. Message to Zelensky: clean up the corruption in your government. 
 

PS: There is a lot of good commentary on line about Abrams. It is clear that they would be “few months” away at the very least given all the logistics that is needed to support them vs the readily available diesel engine powered Leopolds. 

Edited January 25, 2023 by Xerxes