Political Posts

[Spekulatius]

This whole thing is so bizarre on many levels:

 

[Xerxes]

LOL ... What a guy ! He is having a champaign while doing his thing in a nice looking room in the Kremlin. For a moment i thought he was going to cry when he mentioned the Kerch bridge. Watch closely, he does not call Ukraine by name, but rather as the "neighbouring country" that speaks volume of how he feels.

 

Kremlin's PR machine gets a zero as a grade when it comes to PR.

 

However, Ukraine PR machine gets an A+

 

Zelensky does not need to be in green military fatigue all the time, with every one of his footage showing him in a dark/half-lit room sometimes with sandbags around. He also has access to electricity, which means he can shave, (maybe not recently with the infrastructure bombing). It is all part of the "resistance" portait that he does so well and he gets exactly what resonates with the West.

 

Bottom line, like everything else in this war, the Ukrainian have shown themselves to be extremely adaptable and leveraging all they can. Like it or not, the PR campaign is a huge compenent of the war effort.

 

-----------------

EDIT: 

My assessment is that it will take a good 30-40 years before the scars are healed. An entire generation and then some !  Thanks to all the parties, governments, etc who pushed this to the brink and to the point of no return. Really well done (sarcasam)

 

Edited December 12, 2022 by Xerxes

[no_free_lunch]

Zelensky himself may overplay his very particular role but the people of Ukraine often have no electricity and are subject to bombings, that is a fact.

 

Hopefully it takes longer than 30-40 years for things to heal.  Part of the issue is not learning from the Holodomor of the 30s.   The only lesson here is never to trust Russia.

[Xerxes]

Don't get me wrong, they are lucky to have Zelensky.

 

He is the leader that the country needed in time of crisis. If you take out Zelensky from the equation today, the fight will continue as the genie of resistance is already out of the bottle, and it is much bigger than him now. But if he was taken out in Feb, during those fatefull days before he made the call to arms as he stood his ground, history would have taken a different path.

 

Now interestingly and ironically, it may also been truth that no invasion would have taken place, if he never became the president. Meaning that it is very likely that as a former comedian, he must have seen as a "pushover" by Putin and this must have played into his calculus. With Putin everything is about image, therefore, how one appears to him plays a role.

 

You cannot take a look at this image below from this pre-war meetings with Macron and not come out thinking that this comedian is way out of his league.

 

[UK]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

This whole thing is so bizarre on many levels:

 

 

Very bizarre indeed, maybe after everything what has happened or for some other reasons he/they do not care about how everything looks like to the world anymore.

[james22]

15 hours ago, Xerxes said:

My assessment is that it will take a good 30-40 years before the scars are healed. An entire generation and then some !  Thanks to all the parties, governments, etc who pushed this to the brink and to the point of no return. Really well done (sarcasam)

 

 

You'd think, but was pretty surprised when visiting Tbilisi several years ago when a girl I met said I'd love the Russian girls who visited Georgia.

As she'd just shared that her brother had fought against the Russians when they invaded ten years earlier.

When I asked her about it, she said no one held individuals responsible for their government's actions.

[Parsad]

Not sure if I'm worried more or worried less:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/13/politics/us-patriot-missile-defense-system-ukraine/index.html

 

Cheers!

[Spekulatius]

30 minutes ago, Parsad said:

Not sure if I'm worried more or worried less:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/13/politics/us-patriot-missile-defense-system-ukraine/index.html

 

Cheers!

My main worry would be that Ukraine starts to shoot down cheap $20K drones from Iran with $500K missiles. What concerns do you have?

 

Ukraine needs longer range weapons to destroy the drone / rocket bases from which Russia launches their missiles, imo. The US knows where they are (I presume) based on trajectories and satellite surveillance.

[Xerxes]

5 hours ago, james22 said:

 

You'd think, but was pretty surprised when visiting Tbilisi several years ago when a girl I met said I'd love the Russian girls who visited Georgia.

As she'd just shared that her brother had fought against the Russians when they invaded ten years earlier.

When I asked her about it, she said no one held individuals responsible for their government's actions.

I meant mostly at government/state level (even with Putin being gone, government-level hate/dislike has interia). Think Vietnam and U.S. Or other example. 
 

Normal everyday people are often more mature, more reasonable (and dare I say, more humane) than their own government. 

Unrelated, incidentally, Putin’ presidency is up for grab in 2024. I think that is where the presidential term ends. A nice exit ramp for Putin to retirement (with state protection, just like the one he offered Yeltsin in 1999) and a fresh face taking over. 
 

I don’t buy these stories circulating of Putin and Igor Sechin looking for Venezuela or elsewhere in South America as escape plan. I think that is complete fabricated bullshit (and I don’t know by whom).

They know that they live or die by Russia. Their fate and those of the state is intertwined. There is no escape. 

[james22]

29 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I meant mostly at government/state level (even with Putin being gone, government-level hate/dislike has interia). Think Vietnam and U.S. Or other example. 

 

Gotcha.

 

29 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Normal everyday people are often more mature, more reasonable (and dare I say, more humane) than their own government. 

 

No doubt.

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

My main worry would be that Ukraine starts to shoot down cheap $20K drones from Iran with $500K missiles. What concerns do you have?

 

Ukraine needs longer range weapons to destroy the drone / rocket bases from which Russia launches their missiles, imo. The US knows where they are (I presume) based on trajectories and satellite surveillance.

 

The system is for defense purposes only...not to take out drone/rocket bases.

 

My concern is you add the patriot missile defense system, and now Russia will look to unconventional weapons in the war.  

 

You could hope Putin may say..."Oh well, our rockets can't get in now, so we'll call a truce!", but that's not him.  The war may become more volatile and dirty than it's already been! 

 

Cheers!

[Pelagic]

I think missed in the news around Patriot batteries is Ben Wallace's statement yesterday that he's open to sending longer ranged missiles to Ukraine if Russia keeps targeting civilian infrastructure. Patriots are just part of a unified NATO message to knock off the attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.

 

Also possibly a preemptive response to Russia acquiring ballistic missiles from Iran as a lot of the other air defense aid has focused on cost effective solutions to low altitude cruise missiles and drones.

[no_free_lunch]

On this board, on social media, the argument from day one has been that supporting Ukraine will just make things worse.  Yet they now have retaken some of the seized territory.   You can see that so far that logic has proven wrong.  I don't see why patriots are going to tip the scales, it's not like it will completely seal the skies.  Just give them the weapons they need so they can finish this thing.

Edited December 14, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Parsad]

21 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

On this board, on social media, the argument from day one has been that supporting Ukraine will just make things worse.  Yet they now have retaken some of the seized territory.   You can see that so far that logic has proven wrong.  I don't see why patriots are going to tip the scales, it's not like it will completely seal the skies.  Just give them the weapons they need so they can finish this thing.

 

I'm not sure anyone said not to support Ukraine.  The fear was that with too much support, it may just lead to a larger scale war engaging other European nations on both sides.  Cheers! 

[Blugolds]

"Just give them the weapons they need so they can finish this thing."

 

Everyone supports Ukraine defending itself, but the only one that can finish it is Russia, ultimately they decide when it ends. 

 

 

[ANP301191]

I dont think the risk of war expanding to encompass other European nations is as high a risk today as it was a few months ago. Putin has had multiple opportunities to expand the warzone, but he hasn't (probably the easiest would have been when Finland applied for NATO membership). I also believe that most European countries do not have the popular political will to actual engage in anything more than what is being done today. If you read the local papers in Belgium for example, 60% (my estimation over the past 2 weeks - annecdotal) of the articles that cover Ukraine and Russia, also talk about how energy prices have risen because of the war. Speaking for myself, our energy prices are up over 150% year on year. Food inflation is probably closer to 30% than the official 12% put out by the Belgian government. I am pretty confident that most, if not all, EU countries are in a similar predicament, and hence, I dont see any of them wanting to heat up the conflict either.

 

I think the most logical endpoint of this has to be an exit ramp for Putin, as much as I hate saying it. He has to be able to declare victory because I don't see him surviving in Russia if the elites think of the war as a complete loss, and from everything he has done and whatever he has said, I believe that he will absolutely burn down the world with him if he goes down. It, then, behooves us in the West to provide the Ukrainians with sufficient arms to make sure that the victory he declares is as small as possible. Whether the Patriot Missiles are the right armaments or not, I cannot say, I have no understanding of arms, but I don't accept the belief that by providing more/better arms to Ukraine we risk a larger conflict.

[UK]

My understanding is that Patriot systems is needed for possible balistic missille atacks, and thee could also come from Iran in the future. RE drones, they say in a video one round / 6 bullets of this "creature" is enought to take one drone down: 

 

Edited December 14, 2022 by UK

[Xerxes]

The enemy gets a vote too. 
 

Both sides have to decide (or being compelled to decide) that it is over. Both sides will feel that they are not getting everything they wanted, such is the outcome with negotiations with equal peers. 

 

The concept of this xxx country winning or losing is highly relative. A “win” against tangible objective within a few weeks of war breaking out has more value than the same “win” against the same objectives achieved 4 years later.
 

The longest a war goes the concept of win and losing start to overlap. Because as “duration” takes over, opportunity cost etc start to seep in, and become a factor. Win at what cost ? Lose at what gain. Is a Pyrrhic victory really a win. 
 

The only thing is that is absolutely absolute is the concept of “unconditional surrender”. Not seen since the dark days of world war 2, according to my history scrolls. 

Edited December 14, 2022 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

15 hours ago, Pelagic said:

I think missed in the news around Patriot batteries is Ben Wallace's statement yesterday that he's open to sending longer ranged missiles to Ukraine if Russia keeps targeting civilian infrastructure. Patriots are just part of a unified NATO message to knock off the attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.

 

Also possibly a preemptive response to Russia acquiring ballistic missiles from Iran as a lot of the other air defense aid has focused on cost effective solutions to low altitude cruise missiles and drones.

I think that's the way I see it too.

[Xerxes]

Too bad they had not thought about sending Patriots to Yemen. You know that other war, where the bully wanted to re-establish its suzerainty, over what it consider to be its “sphere of influence”. Yemen lost. Qatar only survived the contest of being “independent” of Saudi yoke by being one of the wealthiest nation on earth.
 

I thought the “sphere of influence” concept as per the board members should not exists in 21st century. Yet it seems like everything else it exists when it is convenient to exists. 

 

Those Patriots would have sure handy to deter Saudi bombing of school buses, hospital and schools. Not exactly a pretty scene. It could have been a message to the Saudi to knock it off. 
 

But maybe that would have been too weird !! After all the bombs, planes and missile came from the West, the enablers. Even the planes were re-fuelled by US tankers on the way to drop their payload. 
 

Hypocrisy and geopolitics always go hand in hand. Unfortunately. 
 

 

EDIT:  ranting over. Aeroplane mode back “on”. Back on Ukraine being as that is the only thing that ever mattered. 

 

Edited December 14, 2022 by Xerxes

[james22]

15 hours ago, Pelagic said:

I think missed in the news around Patriot batteries...

 

The Ukrainians are expected to need six to eight weeks of training in Europe to begin operating the system, and a full 10 months to reach full operating capability.

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-patriot-missiles-pentagon-russia-missile-defense/

 

Missed is the assumption of a long war.

[Spekulatius]

10 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Too bad they had not thought about sending Patriots to Yemen. You know that other war, where the bully wanted to re-establish its suzerainty, over what it consider to be its “sphere of influence”. Yemen lost. Qatar only survived the contest of being “independent” of Saudi yoke by being one of the wealthiest nation on earth.
 

I thought the “sphere of influence” concept as per the board members should not exists in 21st century. Yet it seems like everything else it exists when it is convenient to exists. 

 

Those Patriots would have sure handy to deter Saudi bombing of school buses, hospital and schools. Not exactly a pretty scene. It could have been a message to the Saudi to knock it off. 
 

But maybe that would have been too weird !! After all the bombs, planes and missile came from the West, the enablers. Even the planes were re-fuelled by US tankers on the way to drop their payload. 
 

Hypocrisy and geopolitics always go hand in hand. Unfortunately. 
 

 

EDIT:  ranting over. Aeroplane mode back “on”. Back on Ukraine being as that is the only thing that ever mattered. 

 

Why would the US sent patriots to Yemen to help the Houthi? The Houthi are not our friends and neither are the Saudis. In fact if I read this correctly, the Houthis are loosely allied with Iran, so if the US sends Patriots to Yemen, they could end up in Iranian hands.

 

if there is a conflict to stay way from, that sure looks like one. Ukraine is an entirely different case, imo.

[Xerxes]

6 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Why would the US sent patriots to Yemen to help the Houthi? The Houthi are not our friends and neither are the Saudis. In fact if I read this correctly, the Houthis are loosely allied with Iran, so if the US sends Patriots to Yemen, they could end up in Iranian hands.

 

if there is a conflict to stay way from, that sure looks like one. Ukraine is an entirely different case, imo.

I agree. It is geopolitics. 

My note was for folks who for whatever reason decided this is the first time civilians are targeted since the dawn of mankind. And how sad it is. Never mind that we do that ourselves on a dime, with no second thought.  
 

On Houthi, your comment is a simplification. Houthi themselves would heavily push back by being called pawns of Tehran. They are a Shia-offshoot but pre-dated 1979 Iranian revolution I imagine by centuries. 
 

It is one of those situation where the tie between Tehran and Houthi drastically strengthened thanks to the Saudi invasion in 2015. Much like that of West and Ukraine, and how Kremlin got a blowback for trying to bring Ukraine under its yoke.

 

Like it or not, ignore it or not. U.S. is the prime enabler for Saudi atrocities in Yemen.  

 

 

[Xerxes]

On 12/8/2022 at 4:18 PM, Xerxes said:

I have not read. But i think it deserve printing and reading back to back. I am planning to do so myself. Looking fast, there are some passage in relation to the post occupation plans, had it come to pass. 

 

https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf

 

 

the conclusion from the long RUSI report were cited in the AW article, precisely on the topic of air dominance and need for Western surface to air missiles 

 

[Parsad]

14 hours ago, ANP301191 said:

I dont think the risk of war expanding to encompass other European nations is as high a risk today as it was a few months ago. Putin has had multiple opportunities to expand the warzone, but he hasn't (probably the easiest would have been when Finland applied for NATO membership). I also believe that most European countries do not have the popular political will to actual engage in anything more than what is being done today. If you read the local papers in Belgium for example, 60% (my estimation over the past 2 weeks - annecdotal) of the articles that cover Ukraine and Russia, also talk about how energy prices have risen because of the war. Speaking for myself, our energy prices are up over 150% year on year. Food inflation is probably closer to 30% than the official 12% put out by the Belgian government. I am pretty confident that most, if not all, EU countries are in a similar predicament, and hence, I dont see any of them wanting to heat up the conflict either.

 

I think the most logical endpoint of this has to be an exit ramp for Putin, as much as I hate saying it. He has to be able to declare victory because I don't see him surviving in Russia if the elites think of the war as a complete loss, and from everything he has done and whatever he has said, I believe that he will absolutely burn down the world with him if he goes down. It, then, behooves us in the West to provide the Ukrainians with sufficient arms to make sure that the victory he declares is as small as possible. Whether the Patriot Missiles are the right armaments or not, I cannot say, I have no understanding of arms, but I don't accept the belief that by providing more/better arms to Ukraine we risk a larger conflict.

 

I agree with Putin needing to save face to end the war.  The only way that happens, which I've been saying from the beginning, is if he gets a piece of the Ukraine...bringing the Crimea region back into the fold.  Cheers!