Political Posts

[no_free_lunch]

For what it's worth the Russian government and the Russian propaganda accounts I follow specifically mentioned and denied the possible use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine. I feel the arguments in its favor are written here by people who really are not following in detail the nuances of the Russian stance.  I don't think Russia has even done everything they can with conventional weapons yet.  They are not carpet bombing cities for instance.  Despite threats of murder they continue to acquire and trade prisoners of war. 

 

None of the above is to give a pass to the many war crimes committed but just a reflection of the realities on the field. 

 

They are waging a very real propaganda war, one which some in our country and certainly in Russia aligned countries buy into.  All attempts to ignore this in people's feigned understanding of Russian intention feel weak.  I cannot stress that enough. You need to consider and spend some time looking at their perspective to guess at their actions.

 

My theory is look for conventional escalation, murder of POWs, use of gas, other provocation first before nukes. 

[Xerxes]

47 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

For what it's worth the Russian government and the Russian propaganda accounts I follow specifically mentioned and denied the possible use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine. I feel the arguments in its favor are written here by people who really are not following in detail the nuances of the Russian stance.  I don't think Russia has even done everything they can with conventional weapons yet.  They are not carpet bombing cities for instance.  Despite threats of murder they continue to acquire and trade prisoners of war. 

 

None of the above is to give a pass to the many war crimes committed but just a reflection of the realities on the field. 

 

They are waging a very real propaganda war, one which some in our country and certainly in Russia aligned countries buy into.  All attempts to ignore this in people's feigned understanding of Russian intention feel weak.  I cannot stress that enough. You need to consider and spend some time looking at their perspective to guess at their actions.

 

My theory is look for conventional escalation, murder of POWs, use of gas, other provocation first before nukes. 

Russian state prepared their people in 2014 for what was coming. In 2022, complete opposite. No preparation. Despite the obvious signs of an army massing near the border and even going to Belarusia. 
 

I believe (with no evidence) that even foreign minister Lavrov didn’t know what was in Putin mind only weeks away from the invasion. 
 

I believe what Russian state says and what Putin decides to do are two different things.  And things happen the way they did, because he chose to make it a fait accompli

no time for internal dissent.
 

On nukes, Russian state is doing is job in signalling what they have told to signal, that is there is no escalation to that. But If it does happen i don’t expect it to be signalled in advance. 
 

it is already a long war and the day is still long. We are at year 8 and counting.

[no_free_lunch]

I disagree that the invasion was not signalled. It seems there was a legion of Russian trolls making the case for it well in advance.  I remember coming across comments on different platforms where they would advocate for war and lay out the various arguments. 

 

I am seeing the same type of accounts say specifically that they won't use nukes. Or at least the more respectable ones. 

Edited April 20, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Spekulatius]

58 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

I disagree that the invasion was not signalled. It seems there was a legion of Russian trolls making the case for it well in advance.  I remember coming across comments on different platforms where they would advocate for war and lay out the various arguments. 

 

I am seeing the same type of accounts say specifically that they won't use nukes. Or at least the more respectable ones. 

The Russian  are far away still from using nukes. Keep in mind that the Russian aren’t even in a war yet, it’s still a special operation. If they keep losing (not a given in my opinion) then the next escalation steps are:

1) Officially declare war

2) Mobilize (to get more conscripts)

3) Total conventional war (the entire Russian economy will be switched to war footing)

4) potential  nuke strike.

 

 

So we are still 2-3 escalation steps away from a potential nuke use. In my opinion, I nuclear escalation right now is very very unlikely because Putin would basically jump several escalation steps, which imo does not make much sense.

 

FWIW, I actually think that Putin is fairly predictable at this point.

Edited April 20, 2022 by Spekulatius

[patience_and_focus]

This is very gutsy to do in Russia right now. No idea if this is general sentiment or just one pissed off rich guy venting loss of money and stature -

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/19/russian-bank-founder-oleg-tinkov-condemns-ukraine-war-seeks-putin-exit.html

"Tinkov, in an impassioned Instagram post, also claimed that “90% of Russians are AGAINST this war!” He also argued that the remaining 10% are “morons,” and that the Russian army has been exposed as ’sh---y.”"

 

[Ulti]

https://www.thebulwark.com/i-commanded-u-s-army-europe-heres-what-i-saw-in-the-russian-and-ukrainian-armies/

[SharperDingaan]

Had a couple of games of chess recently with some Russian friends, all of whom had retired and escaped from Russia many years ago. Already good to start with, they have all have dramatically improved their 'game' over the last few months. Learnt all kinds of new ways of doing things.

 

The Russian goods, vs currency, FX rate is dramatically different - and widening. Cross the border with a railcar of Beluga Vodka under a layer of coal, and in some places - it will buy you an entire house.

 

SD

 

[no_free_lunch]

Fires reported at a Russian research facility and at a large chemical plant.  Similar to the sunken Moskva these are clearly just "accidents".  It's also possible that hybrid wars play in both directions. 

Edited April 21, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Pelagic]

An interesting interview with a captured Russian airborne soldier. Taking him at face value, it's amazing how little preparation they received for the invasion. No briefing or battle plan or anything really, just board helicopters and fly into Ukraine.

 

 

[Xerxes]

I am telling you guys the whole thing was made up in Putin’ brain on the go. Even internally at the highest level they were probably shocked. If soldiers were not ready, don’t think their people were ready in contrast to the 2014 annexation.  
 

it was an internal shock and awe as well as an external one.  

[no_free_lunch]

The population was prepared.  You can tell us all you want but I saw the trolls advocate for war.

 

 The specifics of the attack were likely held close to the chest but that's a different thing.  

[Xerxes]

Everything is relative. If there was 10,000 trolls in 2014 and 50 trolls in 2022, it doesn’t make my argument wrong. Now I was neither paying attention to the trolls then and now. But I have seen the comparison argument in the western media a lot (The Economist even had an essay on it calling the contrast with 2014 odd), which made the whole thing confusing to decipher leading up to the war. 
 

Anyways. Point taken you saw some trolls. Agree to disagree. 
 

 

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, Xerxes said:

I am telling you guys the whole thing was made up in Putin’ brain on the go. Even internally at the highest level they were probably shocked. If soldiers were not ready, don’t think their people were ready in contrast to the 2014 annexation.  
 

it was an internal shock and awe as well as an external one.  

No, this attack was prepared for quite some time. The buildup of forces took month. It’s just that the cannon fodder soldiers were not prepared. They were informed on a need to know basis and it turned out they knew less than they needed to.

Edited April 22, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

Guys 

I am NOT talking about massing armies. Or doing war maneuvers. 
 

all of which they have done on and off as early as April 2021. 
 

the average joe sitting in Moscow coffee having that latte didn’t see it coming. (An actual all out invasion). Even the spy chief on public TV was off the rail when talking with Putin and that was not staged. 

[Castanza]

11 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Guys 

I am NOT talking about massing armies. Or doing war maneuvers. 
 

all of which they have done on and off as early as April 2021. 
 

the average joe sitting in Moscow coffee having that latte didn’t see it coming. (An actual all out invasion). Even the spy chief on public TV was off the rail when talking with Putin and that was not staged. 

That’s just denial though. Same thing had always happened throughout history and especially during modern times. People ignored 70k civ causalities during the GWOT. People in China probably ignore Uighur situation and people in Russia ignored their military buildup. 

[Spekulatius]

13 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Guys 

I am NOT talking about massing armies. Or doing war maneuvers. 
 

all of which they have done on and off as early as April 2021. 
 

the average joe sitting in Moscow coffee having that latte didn’t see it coming. (An actual all out invasion). Even the spy chief on public TV was off the rail when talking with Putin and that was not staged. 

I think you are right about the average Joe ( or Ivan) not see the war coming. Most people in Ukraine did not see it coming either.

[Benderok]

Yeah you are both right that the average person in Russia didn't see it coming and those who did couldn't imagine in their dreams such a scale. I think the reason for that being is that everyone who even loosely followed the situation from 2014 just got tired of this stuff coming from this TV's as well as the TV propaganda would never tell them what was actually developing there, even if we think they knew something. Xerxes's observation on spy chief is spot on i think. 

[SharperDingaan]

Think in terms of impact x probability. At the top of the chain, people very likely saw high impact, but almost no probability of it occurring - as it just wasn't rational. Then Putin goes crazy, and they all have to follow. 

 

The generals will all be familiar with Hitler's failed foray into Russia. Their best hope is that Ukraine falls, failing which what happened to von Brauchitsch happens to them.  https://www.britannica.com/biography/Walther-von-Brauchitsch

 

SD

 

[Xerxes]

Brauchitsch was fired and Hitler did assume personal command of the army, but he was not a theatre commander. His role was akin to General Marshall (chief of staff of U.S. army). 

 

Wehrmacht had no theatre commander on the eastern front controlling the army groups, before or after von Brauchitsch firing. It was all ran from the Wolf’ Lair in East Prussia with Hitler and his Yes-Men (Keitel and Jodl).
 

Unlike the First World War, where Hindenburg, Lunderndorff and Hoffman held away over the eastern front for a period, while Falkenhayn had the western front. 

Edited April 24, 2022 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

Ukraine war is not great for Russias weapon manufacturers:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-militarys-next-front-line-replacing-battlefield-equipment-destroyed-in-ukraine-11650879002?mod=hp_lead_pos9

[no_free_lunch]

Russia border city Bryansk has large fires at an oil and military facility.  Confirmed on both sides social media but still unofficially.  Some chatter from Ukrainian side that the attack was via drones.  It needed to be done, Ukraine cannot just have it's infrastructure obliterated without response.

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

Russia border city Bryansk has large fires at an oil and military facility.  Confirmed on both sides social media but still unofficially.  Some chatter from Ukrainian side that the attack was via drones.  It needed to be done, Ukraine cannot just have it's infrastructure obliterated without response.

Totally agreed fair is fair. 
Ukraine (at this point) it should feel comfortable to test the water, and do what it can against Russia.  
 

That said, would we make the same comment if Iraq were to attack Diego Garcia using ballistic missile (if the range was there) in 2003-04 as retaliation or would we say :

 

“well that is NOT the same thing, how dare a third rate country assault a first rate country. They should just stand still while we destroy them. It is for their own good. The faster we destroy them, and de-bathify them, the better it is for Iraq”

[Xerxes]

Lavrov interview with the Indian channel. This is for an Indian audience consumption (not western). Shoring up support of a wavering partner.  
 

 

 

[Xerxes]

On 4/23/2022 at 12:33 AM, Benderok said:

spy chief  

It was a “oh shit, are we seriously doing this” moment. 

 

Putin is corrupt but in Russia only him (and his close buddies) are allowed corruption.

They spend tens of billions on their armed forces and intelligence for the past 10 years. That only means that there is an entire class of corrupt imperial mandarins and eunuchs taking a cut until there was nothing left for the actual modernization, betting that it will be status-quo between West and Putin. 

[james22]

It is easy to bemoan the "woke" degraded Western military, but at least it is fundamentally professional.

 

As Instapundit says: Russian procurement makes ours look like a model of thrift, honesty, and competitive efficiency.

 

https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=51256