ValueArb Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 On 12/17/2021 at 10:40 PM, stockman500 said: So if a company makes a 52 week low, generally the idea is to stay away from the stock until a base appears to have formed because it will probably go lower because its bottom, last remaining, yearly support has been broken? If there was any technique to predicting short term stock price moves with even 52% accuracy, it's adherents would have returns far in excess of Buffett, and be much richer than him. But somehow I've never seen a technical analysis billionaire. ARKK is $65.54 as I write this. A year ago it closed at $146.67. Good thing it's a diversified ETF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CafeB Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 01/27/22: VWE - Vintage Wine Estates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueArb Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 2:37 PM, CafeB said: 01/27/22: VWE - Vintage Wine Estates I'm pouring one out just for them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CafeB Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 2/1/22: CMPR - Cimpress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 (edited) Based on AH quotes of ~ $146, PYPL will be at a 52 week low tomorrow. Pretty good company, but I can see this one going back all the way to pre- COVID prices of $110-120 when the bear get growling a bit longer. Forward guidance of ~6% for Q1. (14% wo EBay) is not going to get growth investor exited. Edited February 1, 2022 by Spekulatius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Spekulatius said: Based on AH quotes of ~ $146, PYPL will be at a 52 week low tomorrow. Pretty good company, but I can see this one going back all the way to pre- COVID prices of $110-120 when the bear get growling a bit longer. Forward guidance of ~6% for Q1. (14% wo EBay) is not going to get growth investor exited. You can clone Kerrisdale, who's lazy VIC pitch just went full public. If you assume a ridiculous multiple on 23 estimates you can get 25% upside from $185 LOL. Yea, thats hedge fund investing these days. 2/20 baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, Gregmal said: You can clone Kerrisdale, who's lazy VIC pitch just went full public. If you assume a ridiculous multiple on 23 estimates you can get 25% upside from $185 LOL. Yea, thats hedge fund investing these days. 2/20 baby! One little problem I see with this pitch is that they have 2022 earnings estimates at ~$6.7 and PYPL just forecasted $4.6-4.75. Crystal ball must be broken, pls fix. Overall it is interesting that this COVID-19 beneficiary has underperformed the broad market through the COVID-19 cycle. So much about #neversell. Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 What’s more is Sahm is actually one of the better ones. There’s so much malaise and complacency with folks and the bar for investments just seems lower than I can ever recall. We ve come around to the baseline being “if they hit numbers and you give it a 35x”….. just another data point and red flag to take notice of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 11 hours ago, Gregmal said: What’s more is Sahm is actually one of the better ones. There’s so much malaise and complacency with folks and the bar for investments just seems lower than I can ever recall. We ve come around to the baseline being “if they hit numbers and you give it a 35x”….. just another data point and red flag to take notice of Yes, some pitches now feel like - we think this X will happen and the growth apes will bid this up to 30x revenues and there you have your 50% return! This has afflicted VIC now as well. Lately this has not been working that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CafeB Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 (edited) 2/3/22: HON - Honeywell LMNR - Limoneira PRPL - Purple Innovation -- last at level in April 2020 XYL - Xylem Edited February 3, 2022 by CafeB To add LMNR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CafeB Posted February 4, 2022 Author Share Posted February 4, 2022 2/4/22: ENR - Energizer -- earnings Monday, 2/7 FARM - Farmer Bros. -- national coffee roaster, wholesaler and distributor of coffee, tea and culinary products -- "Our second fiscal quarter marked the sixth quarter of sequential improvement in our DSD sales, and we ended the quarter with average weekly DSD sales down 17% compared to pre-COVID levels, representing improvement from down 25% in the prior period and down 40% from one year ago." FTV - Fortive GFF - Griffon -- activist investor presentation: www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/voss-capital-issues-detailed-investor-presentation-on-griffon-corp-301465833.html LII - Lennox -- TT/Trane also down after earnings, ~10% above its low -- CARR/Carrier earnings Tuesday, 2/8 MLR - Miller Industries -- towing and recovery equipment MNRO - Monro (formerly Monro Muffler Brake) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CafeB Posted February 7, 2022 Author Share Posted February 7, 2022 2/7/22: ABG - Asbury Automotive MMM NTUS - Natus Medical SWK - Stanley Black & Decker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CafeB Posted February 8, 2022 Author Share Posted February 8, 2022 2/8/22: KMT - Kennametal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CafeB Posted February 10, 2022 Author Share Posted February 10, 2022 2/10/22: BKI - Black Knight KAR - KAR Auction Services PTVE - Pactiv Evergreen -- foodservice and food & beverage merchandising packaging -- "broken IPO" (IPO September 2020 at 14) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 On 2/10/2022 at 4:56 PM, CafeB said: 2/10/22: BKI - Black Knight KAR - KAR Auction Services PTVE - Pactiv Evergreen -- foodservice and food & beverage merchandising packaging -- "broken IPO" (IPO September 2020 at 14) Looked at PTVE and it's really a POS business or management team. this was supposed to be a reopening play, but somehow got wrecked by inflation and lack of execution. I think prior to going public again, the business has shrunk for years. It was a VIC recommendation at ~$18.5 https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/PACTIV_EVERGREEN_INC/0301387172 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CafeB Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 (edited) 2/23/22: CSGP -- “2021 was our first full year in the residential property space ... With an addressable market almost three times the size of our existing business, we believe that the residential property opportunity has the potential to add billions in revenue to CoStar Group over the medium to long term. In order to take advantage of this significant growth opportunity, we plan to increase the level of investment in residential products, content, sales and marketing in 2022.” ROST, TJX Edited February 23, 2022 by CafeB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, CafeB said: 2/23/22: CSGP -- “2021 was our first full year in the residential property space ... With an addressable market almost three times the size of our existing business, we believe that the residential property opportunity has the potential to add billions in revenue to CoStar Group over the medium to long term. In order to take advantage of this significant growth opportunity, we plan to increase the level of investment in residential products, content, sales and marketing in 2022.” ROST, TJX I actually bought some ROST today. Always liked the business and price is fair. We might all need to buy our clothing there if this market continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CafeB Posted February 24, 2022 Author Share Posted February 24, 2022 3 hours ago, Spekulatius said: bought some ROST Prefer to TJX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 59 minutes ago, CafeB said: Prefer to TJX? Not Spek, but I'm a long term ROST holder (and adding below $90). I think management is quite a bit better than TJX, and I expect better growth from all the whitespace on their map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CafeB Posted February 24, 2022 Author Share Posted February 24, 2022 (edited) 21 hours ago, bizaro86 said: long term ROST holder (and adding below $90). I think management is quite a bit better than TJX, and I expect better growth Interesting. Thanks. Any opinion on BURL? From its investor presentation, on its potential: "remains the smallest, least productive, and least profitable of the major off-price retail chains". Thanks again Edited February 24, 2022 by CafeB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 8:08 PM, CafeB said: Prefer to TJX? I think ROST is a simpler story than TJX and the valuation is lower. Both are fine companies, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CafeB Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 Thanks @Spekulatius on ROST/TJX 2/28/22: KWR - Quaker PPG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CafeB Posted March 4, 2022 Author Share Posted March 4, 2022 On 2/24/2022 at 6:51 PM, CafeB said: BURL? From its investor presentation, on its potential: "remains the smallest, least productive, and least profitable of the major off-price retail chains". 3/3/22: BURL BOOM - DMC Global -- recent building products acquisition diversifying away from "perforating systems and associated hardware for the global oil and gas industry" and ''explosion-welded cladding technology" -- energy industry ~1/3 pro forma sales ALV - Autoliv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formthirteen Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Both ASC.L and BOO.L are now at 52-week lows. I have been considering buying back both. The last time didn't go that well and I was lucky I sold. BOO.L 5-year average ROCE is ~25%. There's a recent VIC write-up for the interested. Stocks on the London Stock Exchange seem to be quite cheap. FEVR.L is also at 52-week lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elliott Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Inditex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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