Have We Hit The Top?

[John Hjorth]

Great [short term] by now to be a Dane [or European [EUR based], for that matter] these days, with a fairly high percentage of capital already invested in USA, North America [still posted while I'm not a currrency arbitrage guy].

 

[UK]

38 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Great [short term] by now to be a Dane [or European [EUR based], for that matter] these days, with a fairly high percentage of capital already invested in USA, North America [still posted while I'm not a currrency arbitrage guy].

 

+1. Perhaps also could be not so short term thing:)

[John Hjorth]

51 minutes ago, UK said:

+1. Perhaps also could be not so short term thing:)

 

Agreed, @UK,

 

What is trend related, and what is volatity?

 

Daily volatility has for me evolved to become an, average, and over time, measure of success, when one look at it, measured and denominated in personally chosen functional currency, presented to me thereby in nominal DKK on our investment banks user interface, main section, centered both vertically and horisontally on the screen, thrown at my nose, every time I log on, to stimulate me to trade.

 

On a day like this, the figure in DKK the UI is throwing my way is a figure, that is two and half times my last montly salary ex. bonus.

 

Why the hell was I so dumb not to start to become a saving cheapskate 20, 25, even 30 or more years ago, in stead of being a member of the concept called 'the 'Danish consumer' [read : crowd]?

[Junior R]

the one part that's a mystery is do we give stocks a higher multiple on forward earnings just cause of Trump...Many stocks are over priced on a multiple 

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, Junior R said:

the one part that's a mystery is do we give stocks a higher multiple on forward earnings just cause of Trump...Many stocks are over priced on a multiple 

Trump is going to cause a lot more volatility. The sleepy days of the Biden admin are gone.

[Spekulatius]

WMT and NVDA PE are almost the same. I am not sure what’s going on here or where the bubble is:

 

[Junior R]

29 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

WMT and NVDA PE are almost the same. I am not sure what’s going on here or where the bubble is:

 

If you click on 10years what does it show as AVG for WMT ...I think its around 25 to 28 last I checked...NVDA EPS would go down in the future when Hyperscale's use the own in home grown chips (which they are working on) or another vendor...Maybe 3+ Q away

[Junior R]

Quote

Stocks Are Expensive - Torsten Sløk - Apollo Chief Economist

Quote

When growth is strong, corporate earnings are high. When growth is weak, corporate earnings are low. This makes it difficult to find out if companies are cheap or expensive.

One way to analyze if stocks are cheap or expensive is to remove the business cycle by taking the 10-year average of earnings, and doing so shows that stocks are very expensive at the moment.

Specifically, the cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio at 38 is near all-time highs, significantly above its long-term average at 17, see chart below.

 

https://www.apolloacademy.com/stocks-are-expensive/

[Spekulatius]

We are pretty close to 1999/2000 sentiment with record high equity valuations - not just tech (see WMT, FICO etc), US exceptionalism, large cap vs small/mid cap outperformance.

 

Then on the other side, lot of other country stock markets are very cheap, Europe, Latam maybe China or even in US markets, if you get off the beaten tracks. I don’t know if we are in 1998, 1999 or 2000 but ai think we are closer to the top then the bottom in sentiment here, that’s for sure (to paraphrase Howard Marks)

[Junior R]

37 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

We are pretty close to 1999/2000 sentiment with record high equity valuations - not just tech (see WMT, FICO etc), US exceptionalism, large cap vs small/mid cap outperformance.

 

Then on the other side, lot of other country stock markets are very cheap, Europe, Latam maybe China or even in US markets, if you get off the beaten tracks. I don’t know if we are in 1998, 1999 or 2000 but ai think we are closer to the top then the bottom in sentiment here, that’s for sure (to paraphrase Howard Marks)

lol you forgot one 1929 ...China is hard to invest in until the Taiwan situation is solved...Even assets managers like APO went from really undervalued in Aug to now over valued lol

 

in the US market health care is cheap as long as RFK doesn't do something that impacts them

 

If NVDA continues to fall it might single other stock downturns 

 

The best thing that can happen for Trump is stocks to drop 5 to 20% before his inauguration and he can take quick win for the market going back up

Edited yesterday at 02:49 PM by Junior R

[frommi]

On 11/22/2024 at 5:25 PM, John Hjorth said:

Great [short term] by now to be a Dane [or European [EUR based], for that matter] these days, with a fairly high percentage of capital already invested in USA, North America [still posted while I'm not a currrency arbitrage guy].

 

As a european I started to hedge my USD exposure and limit investments in the US. I doubt this currency trend will hold, over the past 30 years the USD tanked during every republican president, i doubt that this time is different.

[Red Lion]

11 hours ago, frommi said:

As a european I started to hedge my USD exposure and limit investments in the US. I doubt this currency trend will hold, over the past 30 years the USD tanked during every republican president, i doubt that this time is different.

 

What investments do you think would do well if the USD tanks? Other than FX? Maybe PM.