The Next FANGs

[Guest cherzeca]

I think (especially as John has described it) AirBNB probably fits these criteria. About to IPO, huge runway. I think post-covid people will still want to travel, and they have the best market position in the travel universe. Margins should expand dramatically as they continue to grow.

 

They will have to add pivot's to adjacent markets to get to FAANG size, but I think a 2-3 year double from IPO (assuming it comes in around the $25-30 B rumoured price) doesn't seem like a stretch.

 

I think this is an interesting suggestion and I for one will read the S-1.  in recent months when air travel and hotel occupancy have plummeted, I have heard that AirBnB has done well. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/rural-airbnb-bookings-are-surging-as-vacationers-look-to-escape-the-coronavirus.html.  the past 6 months has been an acid test for them.  ask your friends and their adult kids if you are of a certain age if they have ever stayed with one...my guess is that an increasing % have or will say they will when travel resumes.  in essence, you have a Uber-like platform without the employee vs independent contractor issues...though I would want to check out the local regulatory issues.  but talk about a long runway...

[Spekulatius]

I agree on Airbnb. I also think Nextdoor has a lot of potential growth possibilities and could become huge.

[Guest]

Speaking of FANGs, Apple is now worth more than the entire Russell 2000...combined. Has 1 company ever had more than the entire market cap of the russell 2000 before?

 

And almost as much as the FTSE 100

 

"If Apple's stock rises 7%, it will surpass the FTSE in market capitalization."

 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/apple-2-trillion-rally-market-capitalization-entire-uk-stock-market-2020-8-1029524339

 

Wow, didn't realize that. Crazy times.

[Guest cherzeca]

the sun used to never set on the British empire.  now an apple casts a shadow over the ftse 100. I could go on about implications for US, but then that would be political, god forbid

[hillfronter83]

I like chance for Meituan (3690.HK). Already over $200b market cap, the third biggest technology company behind BABA and Tecent. Also Tecent owns 20% of it.

[rkbabang]

For Asian stocks I like Sea Limited (SE), a large growing market, the potential to be the Amazon of SE Asia I purchased it earlier this year and it has done well.  I'm wondering about JD.com as well, I used to own it but no longer do.  It's one of those companies I look at again and again, but I just don't think I have a good enough feel for what is going on in China to have the confidence to buy and hold.

 

[Xerxes]

There is a really good interview with Airbnb boss on Bloomberg from I think a month ago.

I ll try to find and post the link.

 

On Asian names, I think Ant Financial would be interesting. As well as GRAB (not public yet but Uber owns a quarter)

 

Personally I am not interested in Meiutan and It’s peer Pudadngo (spell)

They grow fast, but I ll go any day with Baba and Tencent instead. For me, a potential FANG ought to be a money spinner with scale. Ant Financial is one.

 

Grab is much smaller but it’s market is also smaller than China.

[Xerxes]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-07-21/leadership-live-with-david-rubenstein-michael-evans-alibaba-group-president-video

 

Interview with Alibaba president (a canadian)

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-07-10/airbnb-ceo-brian-chesky-on-bloomberg-studio-1-0-video

 

Interview with Airbnb ceo

[Castanza]

good but hard topic.  what companies will disrupt the disrupters?

 

I think the new wave of EV companies are interesting, especially those that are attacking tsla...I don't give much credence to legacy ICE companies, but maybe something like NIO.  Rivian if it goes public.

 

synthetic biology is REALLY hard.  various crispr companies, but how to analyze? I would wait for emergence of market leaders

 

the follow ons that will attack peloton...there will be a bunch...see https://www.barrons.com/articles/these-stocks-are-special-heres-why-51598036348?mod=past_editions (zwift)

 

slack has a long runway.  zoom as well.  all expensive

 

Match may very well grow into something so embedded into the culture that we will all be thinking, how did I miss that?

 

NIO is pretty interesting. A state backed luxury EV play with a battery as a service model that allows them to sell their cars at a 20ish% discount to Tesla. I picked up 100 "eff it" shares in May of 2019. We'll see what happens. I don't follow this space closely, but from the little I've seen they seem more mature/further along than many EV companies. Looking at the price today I'd say I've gotten pretty lucky so far  ;D

 

[rkbabang]

good but hard topic.  what companies will disrupt the disrupters?

 

I think the new wave of EV companies are interesting, especially those that are attacking tsla...I don't give much credence to legacy ICE companies, but maybe something like NIO.  Rivian if it goes public.

 

synthetic biology is REALLY hard.  various crispr companies, but how to analyze? I would wait for emergence of market leaders

 

the follow ons that will attack peloton...there will be a bunch...see https://www.barrons.com/articles/these-stocks-are-special-heres-why-51598036348?mod=past_editions (zwift)

 

slack has a long runway.  zoom as well.  all expensive

 

Match may very well grow into something so embedded into the culture that we will all be thinking, how did I miss that?

 

NIO is pretty interesting. A state backed luxury EV play with a battery as a service model that allows them to sell their cars at a 20ish% discount to Tesla. I picked up 100 "eff it" shares in May of 2019. We'll see what happens. I don't follow this space closely, but from the little I've seen they seem more mature/further along than many EV companies. Looking at the price today I'd say I've gotten pretty lucky so far  ;D

 

 

What about LI, have you looked into it at all?  On a first look it seems less overpriced than NIO, but I know very little about the Chinese EV market.

[Castanza]

good but hard topic.  what companies will disrupt the disrupters?

 

I think the new wave of EV companies are interesting, especially those that are attacking tsla...I don't give much credence to legacy ICE companies, but maybe something like NIO.  Rivian if it goes public.

 

synthetic biology is REALLY hard.  various crispr companies, but how to analyze? I would wait for emergence of market leaders

 

the follow ons that will attack peloton...there will be a bunch...see https://www.barrons.com/articles/these-stocks-are-special-heres-why-51598036348?mod=past_editions (zwift)

 

slack has a long runway.  zoom as well.  all expensive

 

Match may very well grow into something so embedded into the culture that we will all be thinking, how did I miss that?

 

NIO is pretty interesting. A state backed luxury EV play with a battery as a service model that allows them to sell their cars at a 20ish% discount to Tesla. I picked up 100 "eff it" shares in May of 2019. We'll see what happens. I don't follow this space closely, but from the little I've seen they seem more mature/further along than many EV companies. Looking at the price today I'd say I've gotten pretty lucky so far  ;D

 

 

What about LI, have you looked into it at all?  On a first look it seems less overpriced than NIO, but I know very little about the Chinese EV market.

 

I haven't, maybe Liberty could comment? He seems to follow the industry closely. NIO at least is selling vehicles and actually rolling out their BaaS infrastructure. they have 143 stations and have completed 800,000 battery swaps. This industry is inevitable and Tesla is with 100% certainty not going to be the only big player.

 

Lucid Motors (not publicly traded yet) also seems compelling from a product standpoint. The board seems to have some quality individuals as well (ex.) former head Tesla Model S engineer Peter Rawlinson.

 

"Peter was Vice President of Vehicle Engineering at Tesla and Chief Engineer of the Model S, where he led the engineering of the Model S from a clean sheet to production readiness while building the engineering team.

 

A graduate of Imperial College, University of London, Peter was formerly Head of Vehicle Engineering at Corus Automotive, Chief Engineer at Lotus Cars, and Principal Engineer at Jaguar Cars."

 

https://lucidmotors.com/company/board

[Guest cherzeca]

this may be interesting if it doesn't run up too much after SPAC closing:  https://www.fiskerinc.com/investors/

[Gregmal]

this may be interesting if it doesn't run up too much after SPAC closing:  https://www.fiskerinc.com/investors/

 

If you think so, buy a few of the warrants and then forget about it. I am speculatively long some of this.

[Guest cherzeca]

this may be interesting if it doesn't run up too much after SPAC closing:  https://www.fiskerinc.com/investors/

 

If you think so, buy a few of the warrants and then forget about it. I am speculatively long some of this.

 

any risk the deal doesn't close?

[Gregmal]

this may be interesting if it doesn't run up too much after SPAC closing:  https://www.fiskerinc.com/investors/

 

If you think so, buy a few of the warrants and then forget about it. I am speculatively long some of this.

 

any risk the deal doesn't close?

 

I have little more than just my opinion, but Ive followed SPACs for a long time, and even the most obviously terrible deals often find a way to close. This one really shouldn't have a problem, and IIRC, they've already got quite a lineup for the PIPE. Only way it doesnt close is if you have folks who rather get their $10 a share back, IE -40% from todays close. Hard to see enough people willingly taking a haircut like that.

[Gregmal]

Perhaps it may be Salesforce...or maybe the market is really just kinda fun right now. Who the heck knows anymore.

[Gregmal]

Speaking of AirBNB, word is that this was Ackman's SPAC target. Take it for what you will.

[wescobrk]

It is only a matter of time for Tencent and Alibaba cross the trillion mark.

Any other reasons besides (1) interest rates in China higher than the US and (2) potential risk from the Chinese government why theses names aren't higher?

Tencent looks unstoppable with WeChat and the monopoly they have.

[Ulverski]

Jio Platforms, Reliance Industries subsydiary. Telecom, e-commerce, streaming services in India. 

Flipkart - e-commerce in India owned by Walmart (77%).

Snapdeal - e-commerce in India

Huge growth potencial businesses, but with no IPOs (yet?). Also Amazon India is coming.

[Xerxes]

looking back to this thread, i dont think anyone identified Nvidia, fast approaching $800 billion market cap

While I realize being part of FANG and having a $1 trillion market cap are not the same, still ....

 

[Gregmal]

Yea I was actually thinking just that when I saw the thread pop up. I would definitely consider NVDA a FANG caliber. I long neglected to look at this because even if I tried I probably wouldnt understand the space and as a result never really appreciated how truly dominant NVDA is. Essentially the core/bones of crypto, gaming, AR....all very big pieces of the future. 

 

 

[rolling]

This article from 24/08/2018 caught my eye at the time, unfortunately  did not act upon it

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4201845-fang-dominated-this-decade-panda-will-dominate-2020s

 

nvidia is the winner

[Xerxes]

I had NVIDIA at about $120-130 (pre-split) cost, what got my attention was an article on The Economist that explained tailwind on its graphic heavy product vs. the Intels of the world. Nowadays everyone knows that but just three years that was eye opening. I bought it and even held it through the crash, when they had too much inventory piling up due to the Crypto winter in '18-19, but unfortunately I let it go (along with Bank of America) in March 2020.  Somehow I deluded myself that I needed to lock-in my NVIDIA's paper profit to raise cash, as oppose to selling some other thing to raise cash that was threading close to its cost. I work in aerospace, so my world was melting in front of my eyes so rapidly, that i felt to need to raise cash. Now thankfully bought it heavily into tons of thing starting April 2020 and again fall of 2020, but never NVIDIA and missed 4 bags since.

 

 

[clutch]

6 hours ago, Xerxes said:

I had NVIDIA at about $120-130 (pre-split) cost, what got my attention was an article on The Economist that explained tailwind on its graphic heavy product vs. the Intels of the world. Nowadays everyone knows that but just three years that was eye opening. I bought it and even held it through the crash, when they had too much inventory piling up due to the Crypto winter in '18-19, but unfortunately I let it go (along with Bank of America) in March 2020.  Somehow I deluded myself that I needed to lock-in my NVIDIA's paper profit to raise cash, as oppose to selling some other thing to raise cash that was threading close to its cost. I work in aerospace, so my world was melting in front of my eyes so rapidly, that i felt to need to raise cash. Now thankfully bought it heavily into tons of thing starting April 2020 and again fall of 2020, but never NVIDIA and missed 4 bags since.

 

 

 

To make you feel better, I had bought NVDA at around $20 5 years ago.

 

My work is related to high performance computing and deep learning so I knew GPU computing was ripe to proliferate at that time. Also, the moat of CUDA.

 

I sold all of them over a 2 year period as the shares quadrupled...

 

I got back in in March 2020, though. This time I haven't sold any.

 

 

[Xerxes]

 so then i guess i sold my shares to you in March 2020 ... LOL