Jurgis Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 Actually, my quip wasn't direct at you. There was someone else who (seemingly seriously) was describing this as an extinction level event on a different thread than this one and then one you commented on. I thought your backtest joke was funny. :) You haven't seen extinction level event until you have seen zombie apocalypse. ... Although on some days I'm not sure if we haven't been invaded by zombies already. ::)
meiroy Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus https://www.wolframcloud.com/obj/examples/COVID19Dashboard
DooDiligence Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 LOL at the guy using a Damodoran DCF model for the S&P. Good luck buddy. Don't you guys see? Companies are going to revenue comp -20, -50, -80%--how many businesses can survive that? Airlines, theme parks, cruise ships, restaurants by the 1000s are dead companies walking. Hundreds of thousands of people, and 1000s of businesses are going to close. Unemployment is going to skyrocket. The gov't doesn't have enough money to bailout the people, to say nothing of the current crazy plans to bailout hotels and cruise lines. Your stocks--many of them anyway--are going to ZERO. The Democrats control the house--they aren't bailing out big business. BUY FOOD FOR A LONG TERM QUARANTINE. PRACTICE SOCIAL DISTANCING. Stay safe folks. We have a long way to go from here, so strap in. FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEED IT WELL, AND BECOME MORE RATIONAL AND DECISIVE
DooDiligence Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus https://www.wolframcloud.com/obj/examples/COVID19Dashboard Useful post, thanks.
LC Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 I read somewhere (maybe this thread) that CDC finally is distributing 1MM test kits. This will help much more to gain a clear picture how the virus is spreading and severity.
alwaysdrawing Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEED IT WELL, AND BECOME MORE RATIONAL AND DECISIVE Sometimes it's helpful to be scared when bad times are here. In a few weeks, you guys might figure it out...this is predictable and knowable right now.
DooDiligence Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEED IT WELL, AND BECOME MORE RATIONAL AND DECISIVE Sometimes it's helpful to be scared when bad times are here. In a few weeks, you guys might figure it out...this is predictable and knowable right now. You're slipping (neglected to write that in all caps).
alwaysdrawing Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 You're slipping (neglected to write that in all caps). I have been in this thread very earnestly trying to help people see what's right in front of their faces. At least some of you were able to get some lentils.
alwaysdrawing Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 Meanwhile, the guys who get it are posting Tolstoy (@vol_christopher): "As the enemy drew nearer to Moscow, instead of the Muscovites' view of their situation growing more serious, it became more frivolous, as is always the case with people who see a great danger approaching. At the threat of danger there are always two voices that speak with equal power in the human soul: one quite reasonably tells a man to consider the nature of the danger and the means of averting it; the other, still more reasonably, says that it is too depressing and painful to think of the danger, since it is not in man's power to foresee everything and escape from the general march of events, and it is, therefore, better to disregard what is painful till it comes, and to think about what is pleasant." Leo Tolstoy, "War and Peace"
brianr27 Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 "another of the biggest factors in whether a virus becomes seasonally recurrent is whether it reaches a level of transmission that is pandemic (prevalent everywhere) and endemic (circulating constantly in local human populations)." This article discusses whether COVID19 will be endemic. Does that mean that drive through testing clinics, home testing kits, social distancing and travel restrictions would become part of everyday life until vaccine is in place across much of the US population as well as in many other parts of the world? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/flu-comes-back-every-year-will-coronavirus/
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 I think I'm reading Whitney Tilson's weekly email for comedy now. The man actually wrote yesterday the coronavirus is the most irrational thing he has ever seen. It makes me bullish of being able to profit from idiotic behavior even when someone graduated in the top 5% of his class at Harvard Business School and has been to every Berkshire and Wesco meeting for more than 20 years. This guy says Tesla will go below $100 (wtf?) and every week how more sure he is of Tesla to the coronavirus to the most irrational thing he has ever seen from how it is impacting markets. No wonder all of his investors left and now he is a writer. Almost like shorting Tesla and dismissing this virus was really bad for your financial health. (*Smugness intensifies*). From now on, my posts will be only for geeky financial type eyes only (even though I myself don't work in finance). If you do not belong in that category, please ignore. I will do my best to refrain from being confrontational and insulting with those I disagree with going forward as well. I thought I only needed to wait a month for markets to realize what we are in for. Turns out due to our brilliant leadership, it was only 4 days. Here is the only analysis you need for this (again, for geek eyes only): https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/800/cpsprodpb/10115/production/_107031856_blackswan3.jpg In all seriousness, though I have been repeatedly posting graphs on growth of cases outside China (still discouragingly exponential as the U.S. enters the fold), you do not need any sophisticated models to project this in the United States. With the U.S., we have the benefit of a several week delay from other countries and you can just see how this has evolved in those countries with similar management as the United States. And remember it takes weeks from onset to severe pulmonary symptoms and mortality on avg... Unfortunately, the United States seems more and more headed on the path of Italy (or worse) due to incompetent initial and continued management (beyond anything I could have predicted) when this could have been slowed. FYI Italy currently has near 7% deaths as percentage of confirmed cases (and their testing per capita is much higher than U.S.)...
alwaysdrawing Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 In all seriousness, though I have been repeatedly posting graphs on growth of cases outside China (still discouragingly exponential as the U.S. enters the fold), you do not need any sophisticated models to project this in the United States. With the U.S., we have the benefit of a several week delay from other countries and you can just see how this has evolved in those countries with similar management as the United States. And remember it takes weeks from onset to severe pulmonary symptoms and mortality on avg... Unfortunately, the United States seems more and more headed on the path of Italy (or worse) due to incompetent initial and continued management (beyond anything I could have predicted) when this could have been slowed. FYI Italy currently has near 7% deaths as percentage of confirmed cases (and their testing per capita is much higher than U.S.)... It's amazing so many people cannot see this, and are not preparing for what's coming. The next few weeks will all be brutal---this is not the time to buy the dip!
Guest Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 In all seriousness, though I have been repeatedly posting graphs on growth of cases outside China (still discouragingly exponential as the U.S. enters the fold), you do not need any sophisticated models to project this in the United States. With the U.S., we have the benefit of a several week delay from other countries and you can just see how this has evolved in those countries with similar management as the United States. And remember it takes weeks from onset to severe pulmonary symptoms and mortality on avg... Unfortunately, the United States seems more and more headed on the path of Italy (or worse) due to incompetent initial and continued management (beyond anything I could have predicted) when this could have been slowed. FYI Italy currently has near 7% deaths as percentage of confirmed cases (and their testing per capita is much higher than U.S.)... It's amazing so many people cannot see this, and are not preparing for what's coming. The next few weeks will all be brutal---this is not the time to buy the dip! Let's not forget about the massive amount of debt companies have been taking on due to "low" interest rates.
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 This is a tragedy in the making and all along intelligent people are saying "just the flu" and "nothing we can do". Due to weeks delay in severe symptoms/mortality from onset/catching this thing, we are being lulled into a false sense of security. We may be in the calm before the storm... :-\ Intervention helps and it's up to U.S. citizens to push for it: S Korea Deaths % of cases: ~0.7% Italy Deaths % of cases: ~7% Seven. Percent. And that's after S Korea had initial surge due to cult members spreading this. Management of this outbreak matters.
alwaysdrawing Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 This is a tragedy in the making and all along intelligent people are saying "just the flu" and "nothing we can do". Due to weeks delay in severe symptoms/mortality from onset/catching this thing, we are being lulled into a false sense of security. We may be in the calm before the storm... :-\ Intervention helps and it's up to U.S. citizens to push for it: S Korea Deaths % of cases: ~0.7% Italy Deaths % of cases: ~7% Seven. Percent. And that's after S Korea had initial surge due to cult members spreading this. Management of this outbreak matters. Yes--this is the right attitude. This is the calm before the storm.
matts Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 This is a tragedy in the making and all along intelligent people are saying "just the flu" and "nothing we can do". Due to weeks delay in severe symptoms/mortality from onset/catching this thing, we are being lulled into a false sense of security. We may be in the calm before the storm... :-\ Intervention helps and it's up to U.S. citizens to push for it: S Korea Deaths % of cases: ~0.7% Italy Deaths % of cases: ~7% Seven. Percent. And that's after S Korea had initial surge due to cult members spreading this. Management of this outbreak matters. It does matter. But you guys need to calm down. China is already getting back to work. South Korea is quickly approaching that stage. Yes, there have been and will continue to be second infections of the same individuals. But life has not fundamentally changed in China so it isn't going to fundamentally change in the west. You keep saying that you can see the wave coming because you saw what happened to China and extrapolated to the US. Congrats, you were more correct than many in this thread. But are you now conveniently not extrapolating what is happening in china NOW? and I don't want to argue about timing. Because no one knows. But eventually, we will go back to our regular lives with a much more aggressive flu/COVID season.
AzCactus Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 Because Donald Trump saying the market will be "just fine" is too interesting not to post. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/12/trump-says-markets-will-be-fine-as-stocks-crater-on-coronavirus-worry.html David
Hoodlum Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 This is a tragedy in the making and all along intelligent people are saying "just the flu" and "nothing we can do". Due to weeks delay in severe symptoms/mortality from onset/catching this thing, we are being lulled into a false sense of security. We may be in the calm before the storm... :-\ Intervention helps and it's up to U.S. citizens to push for it: S Korea Deaths % of cases: ~0.7% Italy Deaths % of cases: ~7% Seven. Percent. And that's after S Korea had initial surge due to cult members spreading this. Management of this outbreak matters. The below is a better indication of where are based on closed cases. There is currently a 6% death rate for closed cases wordwide with 10% of open cases in serious/critical condition. It does not look good after extrapolating this out. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Jurgis Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 Because Donald Trump saying the market will be "just fine" Now I am concerned. :-\
orthopa Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 Did I misinterpret or misrepresent anything here? I think you have an excellent understanding of this at this point, and apparently able to put it down on paper better then me. Thanks. Just trying to make sure I fully understand the various perspectives. Again, apologies again for the comment before re: the profession you've chosen. It meant no disrepect. I do want to ask you - if you were to take a step back and think about your position, where could you be wrong? I could be wrong by how much of a hit this will be to the ICU/need for respirator, ie breakdown of health system. I can only think back to working during the H1N1 outbreak and the 17-18 flu season and that volume load which was ~15 million cases if I recall correctly. The system was stretched, but did not collapse, My opinion is the virus has been here for 6 weeks/months and cases are vastly under reported. So in my mind we are currently in an environment of where many think we will be from documented patient 1 say 4-6 weeks from now, already! Its in this mind frame I have a hard time rectifying a wickedly high death rate and medical system collapse if we are operating in this environment currently. I certainly could be wrong on this, I hope I'm right of course. We will see. The fact of the matter is if the cases are severely under estimated and we are handling it now maybe we are further along on the curve then we think, and handling it fine. Thanks, that's a helpful perspective to understand the disconnect given your view. So a few follow up questions / thoughts: 1) If it's been here for that long, is it possible that people are dying in smaller numbers and we haven't been seeing them due to the deaths being dispersed and thus not counted as COVID19 related deaths? Is there a national database to check real time death rate (regardless of cause of death)? 2) Is it possible that the density of our cities decrease R0 vs. other countries (along with an advanced heads up from seeing what happened in Wuhan)? 3) Is CFR lower than what we have been told? Or maybe virus has mutated? I don't know what else could cause a disconnect between your hypothesis that it's been here for a while, and the lack of impact we are seeing. Either you are wrong about the date of arrival and the number of people in the population, or the R0/CFR rates are wrong or changing significantly, or we're not capturing the impact somehow. What else could it be? I think where you are getting off track is that corona virus does not equal death. It does not equal ICU. It does not equal respirator. The vast, vast, vast, vast majority of people, even elderly will not DIE. People dont believe it has been here for a long time because there have only been a small number of deaths.....but again. Corona does not equal death!!! You do not have to die to have corona. You do not have to be tested to have corona virus.
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 This is a tragedy in the making and all along intelligent people are saying "just the flu" and "nothing we can do". Due to weeks delay in severe symptoms/mortality from onset/catching this thing, we are being lulled into a false sense of security. We may be in the calm before the storm... :-\ Intervention helps and it's up to U.S. citizens to push for it: S Korea Deaths % of cases: ~0.7% Italy Deaths % of cases: ~7% Seven. Percent. And that's after S Korea had initial surge due to cult members spreading this. Management of this outbreak matters. It does matter. But you guys need to calm down. China is already getting back to work. South Korea is quickly approaching that stage. Yes, there have been and will continue to be second infections of the same individuals. But life has not fundamentally changed in China so it isn't going to fundamentally change in the west. You keep saying that you can see the wave coming because you saw what happened to China and extrapolated to the US. Congrats, you were more correct than many in this thread. But are you now conveniently not extrapolating what is happening in china NOW? and I don't want to argue about timing. Because no one knows. But eventually, we will go back to our regular lives with a much more aggressive flu/COVID season. The question is which country do we most resemble in terms of management of this and population? I do not think we thus far resemble China or S Korea which took and are taking aggressive steps. I believe we may most resemble Italy. Very different outcomes among those three places. Now, Italy's CFR may be skewed higher due to its much older population--for more on that, I've just retweeted some good analysis of why Italy skews higher (adjusted may be 2% not 6.6%. Twitter is not all noise).
orthopa Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 https://www.yahoo.com/news/dont-panic-says-us-woman-recovered-coronavirus-055155667.html Interesting story seems to vibe with some of the things orthopa mentioned earlier. Seems to? LOL. This is what is GOING ON!!!! Again. I treat patients in an ER and have been seeing this for weeks!!!! We just went back and retrospectively called all of our negative flu swabs from my clinic for 6 weeks. All 1450 people recovered NO ONE DIED. There were 2 hospital admission. Again no way to know if these were corona positive but again.....we are in a pandemic right?? ??? ??? ??? ???
Guest Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 https://www.yahoo.com/news/dont-panic-says-us-woman-recovered-coronavirus-055155667.html Interesting story seems to vibe with some of the things orthopa mentioned earlier. Seems to? LOL. This is what is GOING ON!!!! Again. I treat patients in an ER and have been seeing this for weeks!!!! We just went back and retrospectively called all of our negative flu swabs from my clinic for 6 weeks. All 1450 people recovered NO ONE DIED. There were 2 hospital admission. Again no way to know if these were corona positive but again.....we are in a pandemic right?? ??? ??? ??? ??? are you holding cash or mostly invested?
orthopa Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 I would invite everyone to go back and read my first post in this thread. I dont have time look now, then read the yahoo article gregmal posted. That being said realize in this thread I have been called "ignorant", a "cabbage brain", "blind", and have had very little offer. 8)
orthopa Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 https://www.yahoo.com/news/dont-panic-says-us-woman-recovered-coronavirus-055155667.html Interesting story seems to vibe with some of the things orthopa mentioned earlier. Seems to? LOL. This is what is GOING ON!!!! Again. I treat patients in an ER and have been seeing this for weeks!!!! We just went back and retrospectively called all of our negative flu swabs from my clinic for 6 weeks. All 1450 people recovered NO ONE DIED. There were 2 hospital admission. Again no way to know if these were corona positive but again.....we are in a pandemic right?? ??? ??? ??? ??? are you holding cash or mostly invested? Mostly/fully invested. Eventually as more people are tested we will find the death rate plummets and thousands and thousands if not millions had the virus and recovered and were asymptomatic.
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