Coronavirus

[Read the Footnotes]

Really dumb question ...

 

If you get the virus, and then get over it with no ill effects (ie: you're healthy), are you now immunized against that particular strain of virus, or can you get it again? The ask is because if you're now immunized, the areas where this virus has been, must now be developing a progressively more robust herd immunization as time goes on. It becomes progressively harder for the virus to spread in those places, hence the numbers of new infections/deaths drop like a brick.

 

It would also explain why authorities have been mass quarantining in the millions. The aim is large numbers of mild cases that do not require assistance, to create a herd large enough upon exit, that it makes it harder for the virus to spread. If you can't quickly and reliably make and administer large quantities of vaccine, isn't this the next best mass alternative?

 

SD

This is the hope, but it's only one of many reasons to flatten the curve. Also, it cannot easily be tested. Plus Coronaviruses typically change slowly, but there is no guarantee.

 

The virus will spread more slowly if some degree of heard immunity is established. A vaccine if developed will be necessarily rationed and likely provided to more at risk populations first.

[Spekulatius]

OK, we know Washington State is at the epicenter of the outbreak in the US. The Governor gave an update today. Start watching at the 11:30 mark if you are pressed for time. It is sobering stuff. He clearly knows what is coming and he is trying to get the people of Washington State on the same page. My hat goes off to anyone in public service at this time.

 

- https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/inslee-up-to-64000-coronavirus-cases-in-wash-by-may-if-we-dont-take-action

 

He is estimating Washinton State has at least 1,000 cases as of today but admits they really do not know. He said they expect the number (whatever it is) to double every 5 to 8 days. He said they are looking at all measures to slow the outbreak. He said if they do not find a way to slow the outbreak it will simply overwhelm the state's medical system. He said (a couple of times) that what the state does will be based on science. He telegraphed that much more will be coming perhaps as soon as tomorrow. He clearly is trying to quickly educate and get the population behind the measures that are coming. Good for him for being transparent and moving as quickly as possible.

 

I noticed that confirmed cases in the US have just ballooned to just under 1,000. We could be at a tipping point as we watch confirmed cases double every 3-5 days until social distancing/lock-downs policies in the US are announced.

 

The good news is we all know the stock market is forward-looking and prices reflect everything that is currently known. So not to worry over the next couple of days as this plays out as expected.

 

 

Yes, that was a pretty good press conference. No sugar coating, stating what is known and admit was it not. Simply factual and forward looking. Compare this to Trump’s press conference yesterday. It was a clown show with a bit of campaigning and boasting thrown in.

[Liberty]

 

For weeks, thousands of flu samples sat in Seattle as researchers sought to test and flag them for coronavirus. The C.D.C. wouldn’t allow it.

 

When testing did happen, it was too late. The virus was upon us.

[Viking]

OK, we know Washington State is at the epicenter of the outbreak in the US. The Governor gave an update today. Start watching at the 11:30 mark if you are pressed for time. It is sobering stuff. He clearly knows what is coming and he is trying to get the people of Washington State on the same page. My hat goes off to anyone in public service at this time.

 

- https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/inslee-up-to-64000-coronavirus-cases-in-wash-by-may-if-we-dont-take-action

 

He is estimating Washinton State has at least 1,000 cases as of today but admits they really do not know. He said they expect the number (whatever it is) to double every 5 to 8 days. He said they are looking at all measures to slow the outbreak. He said if they do not find a way to slow the outbreak it will simply overwhelm the state's medical system. He said (a couple of times) that what the state does will be based on science. He telegraphed that much more will be coming perhaps as soon as tomorrow. He clearly is trying to quickly educate and get the population behind the measures that are coming. Good for him for being transparent and moving as quickly as possible.

 

I noticed that confirmed cases in the US have just ballooned to just under 1,000. We could be at a tipping point as we watch confirmed cases double every 3-5 days until social distancing/lock-downs policies in the US are announced.

 

The good news is we all know the stock market is forward-looking and prices reflect everything that is currently known. So not to worry over the next couple of days as this plays out as expected.

 

 

Yes, that was a pretty good press conference. No sugar coating, stating what is known and admit was it not. Simply factual and forward looking. Compare this to Trump’s press conference yesterday. It was a clown show with a bit of campaigning and boasting thrown in.

 

Spek, I was thinking the exact same thing about Trump. It really is mind boggling.

 

PS: I also owe you a thanks. When you posted about 2 weeks ago that you were busy selling a bunch of stuff due to your concerns it aligned with what i was thinking at the time and likely helped with my decision. :-)

[mloub]

 

For weeks, thousands of flu samples sat in Seattle as researchers sought to test and flag them for coronavirus. The C.D.C. wouldn’t allow it.

 

When testing did happen, it was too late. The virus was upon us.

 

Thanks for sharing, Liberty.

 

This will be an important part of the post-hoc analysis that will happen after this outbreak is contained, I'm sure.

 

The key to controlling these pandemics is acting quickly and working with what you have.

 

Here was a team near the first US cases that had thousands of community collected respiratory samples from patients who had flu like symptoms. They should have tested any sample that was negative for flu for covid-19 right away, if for nothing else, to establish a baseline of any community transmission patterns. If these are PCR tests, similar to the flu tests we use arond here, each test would have cost about $15. This excerpt from the article was especially painful to read:

 

"By Feb. 25, Dr. Chu and her colleagues could not bear to wait any longer. They began performing coronavirus tests, without government approval.

 

What came back confirmed their worst fear. They quickly had a positive test from a local teenager with no recent travel history. The coronavirus had already established itself on American soil without anybody realizing it."

 

Thank god for scientifically literate renegades. If Dr. Chu and her team hadn't broken ranks and tested those samples, we might have been further behind in containing the cluster in Washington state.

 

M.

 

 

 

[mloub]

This mealy mouthed defense from the feds quoted in the same article is especially infuriating:

 

"Federal and state officials said the flu study could not be repurposed because it did not have explicit permission from research subjects; the labs were also not certified for clinical work."

 

Covid-19 is clearly a global emergency. Officials are discussing quarantining folks, and restricting their liberties. And the Feds were worried that they didn't have the right consents and protocols in place to test the samples from Seattle in the middle of one of the worst pandemics we've seen in decades...

 

M.

 

[sleepydragon]

Confirmed cases in NYC locations:

 

1) One Grand Central Place, 60 East 42nd St

2) Barclays, 1301 6th Ave (2/F Trading)

3) BlackRock, 55 E 52nd St (10/F)

4) Salesforce Tower, 1095 6th Ave

5) 1411 Broadway

6) Point72, Hudson Yards (Research)

7) Morgan Stanley (1 Penn Plaza&Purchase Office)

8) Brookfield Asset Management, 250 Vesey St

9) Jane Street, 250 Vesey St

10) 30 W 24th St

11) RBC Capital Markets, 200 Vesey St

12) Meetup, 12 East 49th Street (3/F)

13) IBM Building, 590 Madison Ave

14) 4 World Trade Center, 150 Greenwich St

 

[orthopa]

 

 

There is a rule of thumb in medicine when faced with a catastrophic injury or situation, focus on the basics. We call them the ABCs: airway, breathing, circulation. You do not move off of the ABCs until you've made sure that they are all secured and stable. The ABCs of this outbreak would be A) Identifying as many infected people as possible by testing symptomatic patients regardless of travel history, B) Isolating those infected people as quickly as possible, C) tracing all known contacts of infected people and asking them to self-quarantine; and then repeat. Our governments should be mobilizing any and all resources at their disposal to accomplish A-C; like the Koreans did in their country. We are not anywhere near doing enough, and time is quickly running out.

 

M.

 

Interesting strategy. Couple questions for you.

 

1. As I'm sure you know symptoms are cough, difficulty breathing, fever, as well as common cold symptoms. We are still in cold and flu season as you know. That means since symptoms are similar we would need to test 10s of millions of people over the period of a couple of weeks with cold symptoms, pneumonia symptoms, strep throat symptoms, mono symptoms, asthma symptoms, COPD symptoms, flu symptoms, CA, viral URI symptoms, etc etc. You laid out your ABCs, how do you plan on doing this? Honestly? You guys are worried about overload of the medical system with ventilators, ICU beds etc. Jesus Christ. Its not feasible.

 

2. Im assuming you mean isolating those that test positive. Not above, not realistic.

 

3. How do you trace the known contacts of someone who traveled with virus? Who is doing this? The physician? The DOH? the CDC? The family? Your going to call the airline?, the hotel?, the restaurant?, etc and trace all known contacts? Honestly?  I could see friends and family, but those are not all known contacts.

 

Great idea but what your suggesting is impossible.

[orthopa]

Confirmed cases in NYC locations:

 

1) One Grand Central Place, 60 East 42nd St

2) Barclays, 1301 6th Ave (2/F Trading)

3) BlackRock, 55 E 52nd St (10/F)

4) Salesforce Tower, 1095 6th Ave

5) 1411 Broadway

6) Point72, Hudson Yards (Research)

7) Morgan Stanley (1 Penn Plaza&Purchase Office)

8) Brookfield Asset Management, 250 Vesey St

9) Jane Street, 250 Vesey St

10) 30 W 24th St

11) RBC Capital Markets, 200 Vesey St

12) Meetup, 12 East 49th Street (3/F)

13) IBM Building, 590 Madison Ave

14) 4 World Trade Center, 150 Greenwich St

 

Ok now trace all known contacts in last 14 days and test everyone. ::) ::) ::) ::) ::).  Then quarantine them.

[Spekulatius]

Interesting thread from reddit about conditions in Italy. Looks pretty dire. It also seems that they are not as incompetent as some here believe, as they clearly prepared a week ahead for an avalanche to patients that they new was coming. Italians may not have the strongest government, but are masters in improvisation at a local level.

https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/

 

I can vouch that this is real of course, pulled it from twitter. Make of it what you want.  If the hospitals prepared at a local level 1 week ahead, they are better then the hospital my wife is covering which seems to have done nothing (no protocols for COVID-19 patients in place, no N95 mask etc.). I hope it never hits as hard as it hits Italy because quite frankly, I don’t think we will look better.

[DocSnowball]

OK, we know Washington State is at the epicenter of the outbreak in the US. The Governor gave an update today. Start watching at the 11:30 mark if you are pressed for time. It is sobering stuff. He clearly knows what is coming and he is trying to get the people of Washington State on the same page. My hat goes off to anyone in public service at this time.

 

- https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/inslee-up-to-64000-coronavirus-cases-in-wash-by-may-if-we-dont-take-action

 

He is estimating Washinton State has at least 1,000 cases as of today but admits they really do not know. He said they expect the number (whatever it is) to double every 5 to 8 days. He said they are looking at all measures to slow the outbreak. He said if they do not find a way to slow the outbreak it will simply overwhelm the state's medical system. He said (a couple of times) that what the state does will be based on science. He telegraphed that much more will be coming perhaps as soon as tomorrow. He clearly is trying to quickly educate and get the population behind the measures that are coming. Good for him for being transparent and moving as quickly as possible.

 

I noticed that confirmed cases in the US have just ballooned to just under 1,000. We could be at a tipping point as we watch confirmed cases double every 3-5 days until social distancing/lock-downs policies in the US are announced.

 

The good news is we all know the stock market is forward-looking and prices reflect everything that is currently known. So not to worry over the next couple of days as this plays out as expected.

 

 

Yes, that was a pretty good press conference. No sugar coating, stating what is known and admit was it not. Simply factual and forward looking. Compare this to Trump’s press conference yesterday. It was a clown show with a bit of campaigning and boasting thrown in.

 

Spek, I was thinking the exact same thing about Trump. It really is mind boggling.

 

PS: I also owe you a thanks. When you posted about 2 weeks ago that you were busy selling a bunch of stuff due to your concerns it aligned with what i was thinking at the time and likely helped with my decision. :-)

 

Thanks for sharing. An act of leadership by Inslee, hoping actions will speak louder than words.

I'm not sure if you were being sarcastic - I don't think a US epidemic is priced in. Clusters in some states yes, but if they have 1000s of infected patients in more than a couple of states moving freely across the country, I don't think the kind of interventions that will be needed and economic disruption that will ensue are priced in.

[mloub]

 

 

There is a rule of thumb in medicine when faced with a catastrophic injury or situation, focus on the basics. We call them the ABCs: airway, breathing, circulation. You do not move off of the ABCs until you've made sure that they are all secured and stable. The ABCs of this outbreak would be A) Identifying as many infected people as possible by testing symptomatic patients regardless of travel history, B) Isolating those infected people as quickly as possible, C) tracing all known contacts of infected people and asking them to self-quarantine; and then repeat. Our governments should be mobilizing any and all resources at their disposal to accomplish A-C; like the Koreans did in their country. We are not anywhere near doing enough, and time is quickly running out.

 

M.

 

Interesting strategy. Couple questions for you.

 

1. As I'm sure you know symptoms are cough, difficulty breathing, fever, as well as common cold symptoms. We are still in cold and flu season as you know. That means since symptoms are similar we would need to test 10s of millions of people over the period of a couple of weeks with cold symptoms, pneumonia symptoms, strep throat symptoms, mono symptoms, asthma symptoms, COPD symptoms, flu symptoms, CA, viral URI symptoms, etc etc. You laid out your ABCs, how do you plan on doing this? Honestly? You guys are worried about overload of the medical system with ventilators, ICU beds etc. Jesus Christ. Its not feasible.

 

2. Im assuming you mean isolating those that test positive. Not above, not realistic.

 

3. How do you trace the known contacts of someone who traveled with virus? Who is doing this? The physician? The DOH? the CDC? The family? Your going to call the airline?, the hotel?, the restaurant?, etc and trace all known contacts? Honestly?  I could see friends and family, but those are not all known contacts.

 

Great idea but what your suggesting is impossible.

 

These are great questions, and this is how I would approach them.

 

First, concentrate on the states with the currently highest known case loads (I know this is a moving target), but let's say Washington, Oregon, California, NY, MA.

 

In these highest risk states, public health officials should be out in the hot spots testing anyone who is symptomatic - just like they did in Korea with their road side checks.

 

Everyone who presents to a doctor with Upper respiratory tract infection symptoms anywhere in the country, who also does not have another proven diagnosis (i.e. Strep Throat, Flu, bacterial pneumonia, etc) should get a nasal swab sent for Covid-19 PCR. This would add a total of 15 seconds to the patient encounter while you uncork the swab stick it up their nose and apologize for the discomfort. There is already an infrastructure in place for flu PCR testing and surveillance across the country, you would basically bolt on the covid-19 testing to the flu surveillance network.

 

People who are symptomatic with no known cause should self-isolate while they wait for their test results. Those who test positive go into quarantine and the source contact tracing and testing pathway.

 

To answer your second question, I would only quarantine folks who tested positive, not all symptomatic people.

 

To answer your 3rd question, the Department of Health should be tracing contacts of known infected cases. This is of course an inexact process, but we should try. There is a well established methodology for doing this and we've been systematically doing this as a society for a couple of hundred years - https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/mar/15/john-snow-cholera-map

 

The Koreans were publishing infection travel patterns on a public health website and sending push notifications to phones of folks in the effected areas. For example, "A patient with Covid-19 was identified who was at Jim's Bar at 11pm, and at a Conference in 'So-and-So' building this morning at 8am. If you were at either location and have upper respiratory tract infection symptoms, please present to medical care for testing".

 

I understand this might all seem overwhelming, but it is manageable. The government recently announced $8.5billion in emergency economic aid around Covid-19. All of the measures I describe above, would cost less than half that much money, and would have cost even less if they were started earlier.

 

M.

 

PS. Let's assume it costs $100 per test to test all 10 million folks in the US who currently have upper respiratory tract infections. That would still only cost $1billion, but as I mentioned above, likely less because those with obvious clinical explanations for their symptoms like Strep Throat, Ear infections, Pneumonia, flu, etc would be exluded.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mloub]

Great idea but what your suggesting is impossible.

 

In the "greatest health care system in the world", basic public health containment measures are impossible? If so, how did the Koreans manage it with less resources per capita than the US has at its disposal?

 

M.

 

[Casey]

Interesting thread from reddit about conditions in Italy. Looks pretty dire. It also seems that they are not as incompetent as some here believe, as they clearly prepared a week ahead for an avalanche to patients that they new was coming. Italians may not have the strongest government, but are masters in improvisation at a local level.

https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/

 

I can vouch that this is real of course, pulled it from twitter. Make of it what you want.  If the hospitals prepared at a local level 1 week ahead, they are better then the hospital my wife is covering which seems to have done nothing (no protocols for COVID-19 patients in place, no N95 mask etc.). I hope it never hits as hard as it hits Italy because quite frankly, I don’t think we will look better.

 

Yep. I'm extremely concerned. I read a few different descriptions of Italian response/situation on twitter. 10-15 days from now sounds like it is going to be brutal. Boston, NY, Seattle, D.C. and probably others should all be looking at doing exactly what Italy is doing right now and figuring out: What should the soft lockdown / quarantine rules be and what situation/case numbers should trigger them? And second, how can we set up ways for people to get access to testing while endangering minimum amount of other people? Drive through testing in S Korea was a great idea.

 

Maybe we get lucky with spring weather and physical distance of US suburbia helping us out. I am really hoping so.

 

I am in Boston. people are in the park swinging on the swings, and cafes/Starbucks are full of people working on their laptops. It's mindblowing tbh.

[alwaysdrawing]

Contact tracing will obviously no longer work in the US. That is an opportunity the US has missed. 

 

We must start social distancing immediately, including cancelling public events, and reducing exposures to large groups.

 

Marc Lipsitch, the Harvard Epidemiologist has a thread here:

 

[Spekulatius]

OK, we know Washington State is at the epicenter of the outbreak in the US. The Governor gave an update today. Start watching at the 11:30 mark if you are pressed for time. It is sobering stuff. He clearly knows what is coming and he is trying to get the people of Washington State on the same page. My hat goes off to anyone in public service at this time.

 

- https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/inslee-up-to-64000-coronavirus-cases-in-wash-by-may-if-we-dont-take-action

 

He is estimating Washinton State has at least 1,000 cases as of today but admits they really do not know. He said they expect the number (whatever it is) to double every 5 to 8 days. He said they are looking at all measures to slow the outbreak. He said if they do not find a way to slow the outbreak it will simply overwhelm the state's medical system. He said (a couple of times) that what the state does will be based on science. He telegraphed that much more will be coming perhaps as soon as tomorrow. He clearly is trying to quickly educate and get the population behind the measures that are coming. Good for him for being transparent and moving as quickly as possible.

 

I noticed that confirmed cases in the US have just ballooned to just under 1,000. We could be at a tipping point as we watch confirmed cases double every 3-5 days until social distancing/lock-downs policies in the US are announced.

 

The good news is we all know the stock market is forward-looking and prices reflect everything that is currently known. So not to worry over the next couple of days as this plays out as expected.

 

 

Yes, that was a pretty good press conference. No sugar coating, stating what is known and admit was it not. Simply factual and forward looking. Compare this to Trump’s press conference yesterday. It was a clown show with a bit of campaigning and boasting thrown in.

 

Spek, I was thinking the exact same thing about Trump. It really is mind boggling.

 

PS: I also owe you a thanks. When you posted about 2 weeks ago that you were busy selling a bunch of stuff due to your concerns it aligned with what i was thinking at the time and likely helped with my decision. :-)

 

Thanks for sharing. An act of leadership by Inslee, hoping actions will speak louder than words.

I'm not sure if you were being sarcastic - I don't think a US epidemic is priced in. Clusters in some states yes, but if they have 1000s of infected patients in more than a couple of states moving freely across the country, I don't think the kind of interventions that will be needed and economic disruption that will ensue are priced in.

 

I think it was Vikings comments that near term developments are priced in,  it mind. This is most likely correct. I am not sure it is priced in that we may have large scale lockdowns, airports shut down, schools shut down (already happening) some of this possibly nationwide.

 

Also if this peters in summer, it doesn’t mean it is over either, but that we need to prepare for a second wave that most likely is going to hit next winter. It is unclear if we have a vaccine by then and even if, it will most likely to be only partly effective. So I think this is going to be a big deal, similar than 9/11 but most likely worse in terms of economic outfall.

 

 

Sounds pessimistic, but I tend to be optimistic. I just want to get  rewarded for risk taken. valuations are getting better and there are some cheap stocks around, but overall markets haven’t priced in these risks yet. I am about 75% invested (from 50% when I sold, since I rebought a bunch of stuff cheaper ) and I think it’s still too high. I can easily see us breaking the lows from 2018.

 

More importantly, me and my wife both have elderly parents we are worried about. My wife wanted to visit her mom this spring break in CA, but she cancelled this trip, out of concern about travel risk and exposing her, as well as the risk of getting stuck in a lockdown.

[Guest cherzeca]

Great idea but what your suggesting is impossible.

 

In the greatest health care system in the world, basic public health containment measures are impossible? If so, how did the Koreans manage it with less resources per capita than the US has at its disposal?

 

M.

 

shouldn't everyone presenting with respiratory symptoms self quarantine, by applying our current logic relating to covid-19?  many more people die from flu.  I dont understand the emphasis on something that is novel but quite small and not on something that is much large, more lethal and something we have at least some prior experience with.  also if >80 are at greater risk, why are we not focusing on preventing them from getting it, as opposed to just quarantining those younger who have it...unless it is a bloomie "oh you will die soon" thing

[KCLarkin]

In the greatest health care system in the world, basic public health containment measures are impossible?

 

The answer is obvious. It is a pretty terrible health care system. The medical care is excellent, but there are enormous cracks.

[mloub]

Great idea but what your suggesting is impossible.

 

In the greatest health care system in the world, basic public health containment measures are impossible? If so, how did the Koreans manage it with less resources per capita than the US has at its disposal?

 

M.

 

shouldn't everyone presenting with respiratory symptoms self quarantine, by applying our current logic relating to covid-19?  many more people die from flu.  I dont understand the emphasis on something that is novel but quite small and not on something that is much large, more lethal and something we have at least some prior experience with.  also if >80 are at greater risk, why are we not focusing on preventing them from getting it, as opposed to just quarantining those younger who have it...unless it is a bloomie "oh you will die soon" thing

 

Definitely folks who are sick should self isolate. This is important and I am in no way minimizing that.

 

I'm proposing that relying on folks to self-isolate would not be sufficient. As evidence I point to the demonstrable effects that large outbreaks have had in Wuhan, and Northern Italy where presumably sick people were also aware they should self-isolate. The Italian healthcare system is now on its knees. They are scraping together every ICU bed they can. In Northern Italy they are cancelling all elective procedures and emptying out their hospitals of non-covid cases so they can focus on the outbreak. We need to avoid a similar outcome. Believe me the reported number of deaths you are seeing is just the tip of the iceburg. Check back on the death rate in Italy in 14 days and let me know if you still feel this is a minor issue that is being overblown.

 

M.

 

[Guest cherzeca]

we dont close down schools and ban public events during flu season.  we dont lock down new Rochelle, quarantine and impose social distancing during flu season.  there is more cause to do this during normal flu season than because of this novel virus. 

[Viking]

Thanks for sharing. An act of leadership by Inslee, hoping actions will speak louder than words.

I'm not sure if you were being sarcastic - I don't think a US epidemic is priced in. Clusters in some states yes, but if they have 1000s of infected patients in more than a couple of states moving freely across the country, I don't think the kind of interventions that will be needed and economic disruption that will ensue are priced in.

 

Doc, yes, my (obviously terrible) attempt at sarcasm. I think the situation, and therefore the news flow, will be getting much worse in the US. My guess is this will trigger the computers to sell. I did notice, for the first time on Monday, genuine fear in the voice of more than a few of the business TV media people. Some were also visibly angry with Trump and his efforts to date. I was shocked. I wonder if we are not getting closer to a tipping point where real panic sets in.

[SnarkyPuppy]

The conversation is beginning to shift, which a reason for slight optimism.  It is incredibly frustrating to watch this unfold given how obvious this was ~2 weeks ago but at least most rationale people I know are starting to take notice of the severity of the situation. 

 

Though I'm not surprised to see some people continue to exhibit blatant commitment and consistency bias - maybe these people will find a way to change their minds if "more people die from COVID than the flu", but will they recognize that their unfairly high hurdle for mental flexibility means becoming concerned once we are passed the point of no return?

 

We should be ringing every alarm at this point.  We are about 10-15 days away from a catastrophic situation in the US.  Each state should should be assessing, at the worst case scenario the limits of hospital capacity, and producing consistent metrics to communicate in a streamlined way to the federal government.  The federal government should use every resource (economic and human capital) this country has to remediate gaps in capacity over the next 10 days. 

 

The advice to "not panic" and to not be an alarmist has been dismissive and demonstrably wrong.  Maybe if there was more concern and panic 15 days ago, people would have been shitting their pants and stayed home as much as possible.  Instead we continue to have massive gatherings across the country, through today, 3/10/2020.  The reaction to date to this virus by the government, and now by the average person, has been absolutely disgusting. 

[SnarkyPuppy]

we dont close down schools and ban public events during flu season.  we dont lock down new Rochelle, quarantine and impose social distancing during flu season.  there is more cause to do this during normal flu season than because of this novel virus.

 

Italy didn't turn their entire economy off overnight because they are having a bad flu season.  Commitment and consistency bias. 

[Guest cherzeca]

we dont close down schools and ban public events during flu season.  we dont lock down new Rochelle, quarantine and impose social distancing during flu season.  there is more cause to do this during normal flu season than because of this novel virus.

 

Italy didn't turn their entire economy off overnight because they are having a bad flu season.  Commitment and consistency bias.

 

that is my point.  Italy while still hit by covid19 is hurt worse by flu every year, and they dont shut their entire country down.  pure lunacy.  while wuhan is a special case, since the outbreak coincided with a new year celebration with much travel and social engagement, I am not sure even wuhan had more fatalities than a normal flu season. haven't seen Chinese data on normal flu fatalities in wuhan (60MM people)

[SnarkyPuppy]

we dont close down schools and ban public events during flu season.  we dont lock down new Rochelle, quarantine and impose social distancing during flu season.  there is more cause to do this during normal flu season than because of this novel virus.

 

Italy didn't turn their entire economy off overnight because they are having a bad flu season.  Commitment and consistency bias.

 

that is my point.  Italy while still hit by covid19 is hurt worse by flu every year, and they dont shut their entire country down.  pure lunacy.  while wuhan is a special case, since the outbreak coincided with a new year celebration with much travel and social engagement, I am not sure even wuhan had more fatalities than a normal flu season. haven't seen Chinese data on normal flu fatalities in wuhan (60MM people)

 

So your base case thesis is that Italy shut off it's entire economy because of "fake news", instead of the thesis that there is an actual problem?

 

What you said.  Pure lunacy.