Coronavirus

[Investor20]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kolkata/15-high-rises-2-slums-on-list-of-31-containment-zones/articleshow/77188071.cms

 

Kolkata: 15 high-rises, two slums on list of 31 containment  ..

 

The above website wont let me cut and paste. Few points:

 

High-rises seen 108% increase while slums seen 60% jump in Mumbai.

In Delhi most cases are from apartments (Not slums!)

 

Why would slums with crowding (that is lacking distancing), lacking continuous water supply (Washing hands), poor people probably lacking good masks would be doing better than high rise apartments? 

 

Is it Ventilation?

[Liberty]

Thread:

 

“ COVID Update July 26: We can virtually eliminate the virus any time we decide to

 

We can be back to a reasonably normal existence: schools, travel, job growth, safer nursing homes & other settings.

 

And we could do it in a matter of weeks. If we want to.“

[rb]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kolkata/15-high-rises-2-slums-on-list-of-31-containment-zones/articleshow/77188071.cms

 

Kolkata: 15 high-rises, two slums on list of 31 containment  ..

 

The above website wont let me cut and paste. Few points:

 

High-rises seen 108% increase while slums seen 60% jump in Mumbai.

In Delhi most cases are from apartments (Not slums!)

 

Why would slums with crowding (that is lacking distancing), lacking continuous water supply (Washing hands), poor people probably lacking good masks would be doing better than high rise apartments? 

 

Is it Ventilation?

It could be stronger immune systems due to living in squalor.

[rb]

And here we go almost right on cue with the politicization of vaccines.

 

https://www.axios.com/trump-coronavirus-vaccines-therapeutics-c6ce097a-bdea-410a-b02b-211574a3e9aa.html

[Liberty]

Yikes. These seemingly random long term effects on young, healthy people need to be studied, but it’ll take time, so in the meantime, let’s be careful:

 

[Liberty]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kolkata/15-high-rises-2-slums-on-list-of-31-containment-zones/articleshow/77188071.cms

 

Kolkata: 15 high-rises, two slums on list of 31 containment  ..

 

The above website wont let me cut and paste. Few points:

 

High-rises seen 108% increase while slums seen 60% jump in Mumbai.

In Delhi most cases are from apartments (Not slums!)

 

Why would slums with crowding (that is lacking distancing), lacking continuous water supply (Washing hands), poor people probably lacking good masks would be doing better than high rise apartments? 

 

Is it Ventilation?

It could be stronger immune systems due to living in squalor.

 

Could be they're just not getting tested nearly as much because of much worse access to healthcare?

 

Don't assume that the numbers (the map) represents reality accurately (the actual terrain).

[Liberty]

Senior advisers began presenting Trump with data showing coronavirus spiking "among 'OUR PEOPLE' in Republican states" and projections of virus surges hitting "politically important states."

 

"This new approach seemed to resonate" with Trump.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-not-solve-coronavirus-crisis/2020/07/26/7fca9a92-cdb0-11ea-91f1-28aca4d833a0_story.html

 

Good for those in red swing states, I guess...  :-\

[Liberty]

 

47.2% of US adults have a condition that means high risk for COVID19 complications: Obesity-BMI≥30(35.4%), Diabetes(12.8%), Emphysema/chron bronchitis(8.9%),Red heartdz(8.6%), Kidney dz(3.4%). Add race, age, blood pressure, immune suppression & number. Bottom Line: much of US at risk

[Dalal.Holdings]

And here we go almost right on cue with the politicization of vaccines.

 

https://www.axios.com/trump-coronavirus-vaccines-therapeutics-c6ce097a-bdea-410a-b02b-211574a3e9aa.html

 

You mean to tell me the guy who peddled HCQ and Azithro does not care about efficacy/safety and just wants to promote a false perception of a treatment for “no big deal” virus? You mean to tell me it is unlikely that people will trust whatever vaccine his son-in-law “warp speeds” into production? That people have no trust with this highly credible administration?

 

Maybe when all this is done, he and Bolsonaro can launch a homeopathic med business. Just think of the infomercials...

[LC]

Well, its hardly a secret that the virus is less deadly. FL for instance has been having an outbreak for what? 2 months now? Texas the same. If we want to talk about being intellectually dishonest...shouldnt we get a follow up from the folks who confidently sneered about "waiting 2 weeks" back in June? I mean, its not like you need to give Trump credit for the death rate being much lower, so I dont see why its so hard even acknowledging it.

 

Well take a look at Florida and Texas' excess deaths:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

 

They are certainly above the average. As of today, CDC estimates anywhere from 140,000-190,000 deaths associated with COVID, post Feb 2020.

 

 

 

 

[muscleman]

And here we go almost right on cue with the politicization of vaccines.

 

https://www.axios.com/trump-coronavirus-vaccines-therapeutics-c6ce097a-bdea-410a-b02b-211574a3e9aa.html

 

You mean to tell me the guy who peddled HCQ and Azithro does not care about efficacy/safety and just wants to promote a false perception of a treatment for “no big deal” virus? You mean to tell me it is unlikely that people will trust whatever vaccine his son-in-law “warp speeds” into production? That people have no trust with this highly credible administration?

 

Maybe when all this is done, he and Bolsonaro can launch a homeopathic med business. Just think of the infomercials...

 

Given this is a stock forum, I would have to assume that we share the same assumption that we are forward looking not backward looking right?

Of course the Republicans are wrong when they said it is just another flu. But that’s not important. What’s important is this:

Do you think things will be a lot better 4-8 weeks from now or a lot worse? How about 6 months from now?

The market is forward looking 6-12 months from now.

[rb]

The market is forward looking 6-12 months from now.

That's more of a saying. Not so much as a law, you know...

[Dalal.Holdings]

And here we go almost right on cue with the politicization of vaccines.

 

https://www.axios.com/trump-coronavirus-vaccines-therapeutics-c6ce097a-bdea-410a-b02b-211574a3e9aa.html

 

You mean to tell me the guy who peddled HCQ and Azithro does not care about efficacy/safety and just wants to promote a false perception of a treatment for “no big deal” virus? You mean to tell me it is unlikely that people will trust whatever vaccine his son-in-law “warp speeds” into production? That people have no trust with this highly credible administration?

 

Maybe when all this is done, he and Bolsonaro can launch a homeopathic med business. Just think of the infomercials...

 

Given this is a stock forum, I would have to assume that we share the same assumption that we are forward looking not backward looking right?

Of course the Republicans are wrong when they said it is just another flu. But that’s not important. What’s important is this:

Do you think things will be a lot better 4-8 weeks from now or a lot worse? How about 6 months from now?

The market is forward looking 6-12 months from now.

 

You're asking the wrong question. The market is close to all time highs hit in Feb 2020 before covid was even a thing in the United States and after the S&P gained like 34% in 2019 to cap off an 11 y bull market...

 

So...my question to you is...is the outlook vs Feb 2020 unchanged by events of this pandemic (March-Present)--are we all set to have the same bright future we were to have back in Feb 2020? What is the remaining risk-reward in broader equities? Buffett seems to have an opinion contrary to yours...

 

Even if we have a vaccine with full rollout in 6 mo and covid goes to zero in January 2021, it's laughable to think that there will be no long term (economic) consequences from this whole fiasco that does not affect the economy and shareholder returns. Chapter 11s already being logged, massive government deficits, prolonged unemployment, political backlash against tech, likely political change causing corporate tax rates to jump from 22 to 28 to 35%?...

 

These are the things I'm sorry to say that will pop the "V shaped" hope bubble at some point regardless of whatever happens with covid from here on out...

 

Then again, if the dollar weakens enough as the metals market imply, the S&P may indeed go higher, just don't ask about real returns...

 

Edit:

The only way the "forward looking so stonks will go up" meme works is if:

1) The market was significantly undervalued in Feb 2020 (I doubt this)

Or

2) There are no long term economic effects of covid that impact shareholders (I doubt this)

Or

3) Pres Chump wins again and the next 4 years are all about pumping markets at all costs: more exploding gov't debt, currency devaluation, negative rates, USD loses reserve status, etc--don't ask about the state of the real economy though; (#3 is not beyond the realm of possibilities unlike #1 and #2 IMO)

[Investor20]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kolkata/15-high-rises-2-slums-on-list-of-31-containment-zones/articleshow/77188071.cms

 

Kolkata: 15 high-rises, two slums on list of 31 containment  ..

 

The above website wont let me cut and paste. Few points:

 

High-rises seen 108% increase while slums seen 60% jump in Mumbai.

In Delhi most cases are from apartments (Not slums!)

 

Why would slums with crowding (that is lacking distancing), lacking continuous water supply (Washing hands), poor people probably lacking good masks would be doing better than high rise apartments? 

 

Is it Ventilation?

It could be stronger immune systems due to living in squalor.

 

You mean they have more cross immunity to other coronaviruses?

[Investor20]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kolkata/15-high-rises-2-slums-on-list-of-31-containment-zones/articleshow/77188071.cms

 

Kolkata: 15 high-rises, two slums on list of 31 containment  ..

 

The above website wont let me cut and paste. Few points:

 

High-rises seen 108% increase while slums seen 60% jump in Mumbai.

In Delhi most cases are from apartments (Not slums!)

 

Why would slums with crowding (that is lacking distancing), lacking continuous water supply (Washing hands), poor people probably lacking good masks would be doing better than high rise apartments? 

 

Is it Ventilation?

It could be stronger immune systems due to living in squalor.

 

Could be they're just not getting tested nearly as much because of much worse access to healthcare?

Unlikely because low testing cannot hide high deaths.

[rb]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kolkata/15-high-rises-2-slums-on-list-of-31-containment-zones/articleshow/77188071.cms

 

Kolkata: 15 high-rises, two slums on list of 31 containment  ..

 

The above website wont let me cut and paste. Few points:

 

High-rises seen 108% increase while slums seen 60% jump in Mumbai.

In Delhi most cases are from apartments (Not slums!)

 

Why would slums with crowding (that is lacking distancing), lacking continuous water supply (Washing hands), poor people probably lacking good masks would be doing better than high rise apartments? 

 

Is it Ventilation?

It could be stronger immune systems due to living in squalor.

 

You mean they have more cross immunity to other coronaviruses?

Not necessarily cross immunity to viruses. Just a stronger immune system and a better response. If you're living in squalor you'll generally have a much better immune system and better immune response than some fat guy that drives everywhere and washes regularly. It's also a big part of the reason why there are less people with allergies in developing countries.

[Investor20]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kolkata/15-high-rises-2-slums-on-list-of-31-containment-zones/articleshow/77188071.cms

 

Kolkata: 15 high-rises, two slums on list of 31 containment  ..

 

The above website wont let me cut and paste. Few points:

 

High-rises seen 108% increase while slums seen 60% jump in Mumbai.

In Delhi most cases are from apartments (Not slums!)

 

Why would slums with crowding (that is lacking distancing), lacking continuous water supply (Washing hands), poor people probably lacking good masks would be doing better than high rise apartments? 

 

Is it Ventilation?

It could be stronger immune systems due to living in squalor.

 

You mean they have more cross immunity to other coronaviruses?

Not necessarily cross immunity to viruses. Just a stronger immune system and a better response. If you're living in squalor you'll generally have a much better immune system and better immune response than some fat guy that drives everywhere and washes regularly. It's also a big part of the reason why there are less people with allergies in developing countries.

 

Allergies are over reaction of immune system. Your evidence says poorer people have less immunity.

 

Covid-19 is much more prevalent in lower income groups in US, which is shown in NYC.  But that is usually explained because of crowding in smaller housing.

 

But that is not the case in India.  Slums with high crowding have lower Covid-19.

[muscleman]

And here we go almost right on cue with the politicization of vaccines.

 

https://www.axios.com/trump-coronavirus-vaccines-therapeutics-c6ce097a-bdea-410a-b02b-211574a3e9aa.html

 

You mean to tell me the guy who peddled HCQ and Azithro does not care about efficacy/safety and just wants to promote a false perception of a treatment for “no big deal” virus? You mean to tell me it is unlikely that people will trust whatever vaccine his son-in-law “warp speeds” into production? That people have no trust with this highly credible administration?

 

Maybe when all this is done, he and Bolsonaro can launch a homeopathic med business. Just think of the infomercials...

 

Given this is a stock forum, I would have to assume that we share the same assumption that we are forward looking not backward looking right?

Of course the Republicans are wrong when they said it is just another flu. But that’s not important. What’s important is this:

Do you think things will be a lot better 4-8 weeks from now or a lot worse? How about 6 months from now?

The market is forward looking 6-12 months from now.

 

You're asking the wrong question. The market is close to all time highs hit in Feb 2020 before covid was even a thing in the United States and after the S&P gained like 34% in 2019 to cap off an 11 y bull market...

 

So...my question to you is...is the outlook vs Feb 2020 unchanged by events of this pandemic (March-Present)--are we all set to have the same bright future we were to have back in Feb 2020? What is the remaining risk-reward in broader equities? Buffett seems to have an opinion contrary to yours...

 

Even if we have a vaccine with full rollout in 6 mo and covid goes to zero in January 2021, it's laughable to think that there will be no long term (economic) consequences from this whole fiasco that does not affect the economy and shareholder returns. Chapter 11s already being logged, massive government deficits, prolonged unemployment, political backlash against tech, likely political change causing corporate tax rates to jump from 22 to 28 to 35%?...

 

These are the things I'm sorry to say that will pop the "V shaped" hope bubble at some point regardless of whatever happens with covid from here on out...

 

Then again, if the dollar weakens enough as the metals market imply, the S&P may indeed go higher, just don't ask about real returns...

 

Edit:

The only way the "forward looking so stonks will go up" meme works is if:

1) The market was significantly undervalued in Feb 2020 (I doubt this)

Or

2) There are no long term economic effects of covid that impact shareholders (I doubt this)

Or

3) Pres Chump wins again and the next 4 years are all about pumping markets at all costs: more exploding gov't debt, currency devaluation, negative rates, USD loses reserve status, etc--don't ask about the state of the real economy though; (#3 is not beyond the realm of possibilities unlike #1 and #2 IMO)

 

You are leaping forward. It is better to go one step at a time. I have high conviction that by the end of August, the covid situation will improve dramatically. How about you?

[Dalal.Holdings]

You are leaping forward. It is better to go one step at a time. I have high conviction that by the end of August, the covid situation will improve dramatically. How about you?

 

You asked me about the market...so I answered. Funny you say I jump ahead when if the market were perfectly forward looking, it too would “jump ahead”. Fact is, market is at pre-covid levels so it is already pricing in a vaccine/cure with no long term economic effects in my view.

 

I refrain from forming high convictions about situations with wide uncertainty/fat tails. Some folks believe they can form high conviction opinions about massive events like covid with multi order effects (and call out people like me as “not committing” even though the things I’ve committed to—like exp growth in March, delayed mortality from Southern spike in June—have panned out). If you think you can forecast this thing along with 2nd/3rd order effects with “high conviction” and derive an edge, then be my guest.

 

Now it sure does look like U.S. daily cases may have peaked (with certain restrictions in place) though deaths in some places continue to rise—FL just reported a record number of daily deaths (consistent with being a lagging indicator as I’ve stated with regards to deaths).

 

So yes, it certainly seems we may have seen the worst of it in the U.S. wrt rising cases...but if the market is truly “forward looking”, it already has accounted for that, no? The rise in U.S. cases has been declining for a couple of weeks now. I mean we are just going in circles if we are going to pontificate about “the market” anyway which is why it’s always fun to talk about “the market” but useless. On a general risk-reward basis though I don’t see what’s attractive in the broader market even in your high conviction scenario.

 

To put it another way, if covid were gone today, what would we have to look forward to tomorrow to drive markets higher from their already all time high levels? I’m not sure what that would be (on a real return basis)...

[rb]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kolkata/15-high-rises-2-slums-on-list-of-31-containment-zones/articleshow/77188071.cms

 

Kolkata: 15 high-rises, two slums on list of 31 containment  ..

 

The above website wont let me cut and paste. Few points:

 

High-rises seen 108% increase while slums seen 60% jump in Mumbai.

In Delhi most cases are from apartments (Not slums!)

 

Why would slums with crowding (that is lacking distancing), lacking continuous water supply (Washing hands), poor people probably lacking good masks would be doing better than high rise apartments? 

 

Is it Ventilation?

It could be stronger immune systems due to living in squalor.

 

You mean they have more cross immunity to other coronaviruses?

Not necessarily cross immunity to viruses. Just a stronger immune system and a better response. If you're living in squalor you'll generally have a much better immune system and better immune response than some fat guy that drives everywhere and washes regularly. It's also a big part of the reason why there are less people with allergies in developing countries.

 

Allergies are over reaction of immune system. Your evidence says poorer people have less immunity.

 

Covid-19 is much more prevalent in lower income groups in US, which is shown in NYC.  But that is usually explained because of crowding in smaller housing.

 

But that is not the case in India.  Slums with high crowding have lower Covid-19.

Yes allergies are an over reaction of the immune system. But you're looking this in an over-simplified way. Like in any fight/battle the level of strength is not all that matters. Tactics matter a great deal as well. So the guy who grew up a (relatively) rich life in America who's mom was always there with Purell go clean the germs may have a strong immune system because he is healthy and not malnourished etc... But the Indian who grew up in squalor playing in dirt and shit with not a bar of soap in sight has an immune system that is better equipped to deal with threats because it has been exposed to so many pathogens. That's why the rich guy's immune system goes like Holy Shit! A nut, Red Alert, DEFCON 1! and the poor guy's immune system goes like, oh a nut, that looks yummy.

 

To put this another way the rich guy's immune system is like a white guy that attends private school, goes to the gym 3 times a week to pump lift weights for 2 hours, drinks protein shakes. The poor guy's immune system is like a dirt-under-fingernails street fighter from the bad side of Jakarta. Christopher over there looks pretty impressive. But which one of the two do you want backing you in a dark alley fight?

[mattee2264]

 

  Lots of liquidity and Federal government stimulus can keep markets high long enough for the economy to improve. It is difficult to foresee either the Fed or the US government removing the punchbowl especially as they seem to be working in tandem. Government and corporate debt levels look scary at first sight but so long as interest rates remain very low there won't be a near term reckoning. Also roughly 20% of the S&P 500 is represented by FANGAM stocks who are seen as major beneficiaries from the virus. Other components of the S&P 500 such as healthcare stocks, consumer staples etc are also relatively unaffected. Meanwhile banks are still 50% or so off their pre-COVID highs, airlines and other travel stocks as well as energy stocks have been decimated etc. So there is some logic to the valuations and it is not predicated on things going back to normal in the near future and does reflect a pretty bad economy.

 

I would agree there doesn't appear to be a huge amount of further upside. The FANGAM stocks have borrowed against the future as COVID has accelerated the shift online and will eventually see a slowdown in their growth rates and they might sell off. On the other hand financials, energy and travel names will eventually recover somewhat. Eventually interest rates will rise somewhat which will cause multiples to contract somewhat. But this won't happen until there are real signs of a recovery in the economy which will have an offsetting effect as earnings rise back towards pre COVID levels. So more of a stock pickers market.

 

There is of course a lot of uncertainty which will cause some volatility so a correction or a melt up might be on the cards. But I do not really foresee a further market crash. That will probably come much later down the line either if we run into stagflation at some point or the government and Fed decide to get tough when they feel the economy is out of the woods.

[Gregmal]

 

  Lots of liquidity and Federal government stimulus can keep markets high long enough for the economy to improve. It is difficult to foresee either the Fed or the US government removing the punchbowl especially as they seem to be working in tandem. Government and corporate debt levels look scary at first sight but so long as interest rates remain very low there won't be a near term reckoning. Also roughly 20% of the S&P 500 is represented by FANGAM stocks who are seen as major beneficiaries from the virus. Other components of the S&P 500 such as healthcare stocks, consumer staples etc are also relatively unaffected. Meanwhile banks are still 50% or so off their pre-COVID highs, airlines and other travel stocks as well as energy stocks have been decimated etc. So there is some logic to the valuations and it is not predicated on things going back to normal in the near future and does reflect a pretty bad economy.

 

I would agree there doesn't appear to be a huge amount of further upside. The FANGAM stocks have borrowed against the future as COVID has accelerated the shift online and will eventually see a slowdown in their growth rates and they might sell off. On the other hand financials, energy and travel names will eventually recover somewhat. Eventually interest rates will rise somewhat which will cause multiples to contract somewhat. But this won't happen until there are real signs of a recovery in the economy which will have an offsetting effect as earnings rise back towards pre COVID levels. So more of a stock pickers market.

 

There is of course a lot of uncertainty which will cause some volatility so a correction or a melt up might be on the cards. But I do not really foresee a further market crash. That will probably come much later down the line either if we run into stagflation at some point or the government and Fed decide to get tough when they feel the economy is out of the woods.

 

Exactly. The same exact arguments about the Fed and government propping up the market, and things being ahead of themselves, was made by some, almost every week, from 2010-2013. Then it seemed they shut up. Now it seems theyre back. What you described above, happened.

 

And anyone comparing S&P February to S&P today is missing quite a bit. Mainly, the dislocation with tech has gotten much larger, and second, probably most importantly, we have some significant clarity on where rates will be for the forteseeable future. That is always important. Go pull up the Buffett quotes about where stocks should be if rates are long term low.... The whole "S&P shouldn't be here" is just lazy and half assed.

[muscleman]

You are leaping forward. It is better to go one step at a time. I have high conviction that by the end of August, the covid situation will improve dramatically. How about you?

 

You asked me about the market...so I answered. Funny you say I jump ahead when if the market were perfectly forward looking, it too would “jump ahead”. Fact is, market is at pre-covid levels so it is already pricing in a vaccine/cure with no long term economic effects in my view.

 

I refrain from forming high convictions about situations with wide uncertainty/fat tails. Some folks believe they can form high conviction opinions about massive events like covid with multi order effects (and call out people like me as “not committing” even though the things I’ve committed to—like exp growth in March, delayed mortality from Southern spike in June—have panned out). If you think you can forecast this thing along with 2nd/3rd order effects with “high conviction” and derive an edge, then be my guest.

 

Now it sure does look like U.S. daily cases may have peaked (with certain restrictions in place) though deaths in some places continue to rise—FL just reported a record number of daily deaths (consistent with being a lagging indicator as I’ve stated with regards to deaths).

 

So yes, it certainly seems we may have seen the worst of it in the U.S. wrt rising cases...but if the market is truly “forward looking”, it already has accounted for that, no? The rise in U.S. cases has been declining for a couple of weeks now. I mean we are just going in circles if we are going to pontificate about “the market” anyway which is why it’s always fun to talk about “the market” but useless. On a general risk-reward basis though I don’t see what’s attractive in the broader market even in your high conviction scenario.

 

To put it another way, if covid were gone today, what would we have to look forward to tomorrow to drive markets higher from their already all time high levels? I’m not sure what that would be (on a real return basis)...

 

I am just trying to go one step at a time. So it seems like you kinda agree but not quite sure that things will be much better from today by the end of August? That's fine. I think it is important to acknowledge that when we build a decision based on a complex web of information.

 

But since you are asking about what would happen today if the virus is gone.... I have a completely different thesis than anyone else here. I think the continued daily cases will drive the market up, and by the time the virus is gone, the market will crash. Again I have high conviction on this. :) But I don't want to elaborate on that because it is a pretty complex theory and this is a COVID thread and it took so much back and forth to even try to agree on some hard facts about COVID. I don't expect you or anyone to believe in my market theory but I think it'll be fun to keep it in mind and see if it works out that way.  ;)

[rb]

So it seems that The Crew is back to hawking HCQ and trying to discredit Fauci.

 

They have a new favourite doctor now who's a total whackadoodle. Loves HCQ and there's something in there about having dream sex with demons making you sick. I shit you not. If this person is a real doctor, as in has a medical license, I have some concerns.

[Dalal.Holdings]

You are leaping forward. It is better to go one step at a time. I have high conviction that by the end of August, the covid situation will improve dramatically. How about you?

 

You asked me about the market...so I answered. Funny you say I jump ahead when if the market were perfectly forward looking, it too would “jump ahead”. Fact is, market is at pre-covid levels so it is already pricing in a vaccine/cure with no long term economic effects in my view.

 

I refrain from forming high convictions about situations with wide uncertainty/fat tails. Some folks believe they can form high conviction opinions about massive events like covid with multi order effects (and call out people like me as “not committing” even though the things I’ve committed to—like exp growth in March, delayed mortality from Southern spike in June—have panned out). If you think you can forecast this thing along with 2nd/3rd order effects with “high conviction” and derive an edge, then be my guest.

 

Now it sure does look like U.S. daily cases may have peaked (with certain restrictions in place) though deaths in some places continue to rise—FL just reported a record number of daily deaths (consistent with being a lagging indicator as I’ve stated with regards to deaths).

 

So yes, it certainly seems we may have seen the worst of it in the U.S. wrt rising cases...but if the market is truly “forward looking”, it already has accounted for that, no? The rise in U.S. cases has been declining for a couple of weeks now. I mean we are just going in circles if we are going to pontificate about “the market” anyway which is why it’s always fun to talk about “the market” but useless. On a general risk-reward basis though I don’t see what’s attractive in the broader market even in your high conviction scenario.

 

To put it another way, if covid were gone today, what would we have to look forward to tomorrow to drive markets higher from their already all time high levels? I’m not sure what that would be (on a real return basis)...

 

But since you are asking about what would happen today if the virus is gone.... I have a completely different thesis than anyone else here. I think the continued daily cases will drive the market up, and by the time the virus is gone, the market will crash. Again I have high conviction on this. :) But I don't want to elaborate on that because it is a pretty complex theory and this is a COVID thread and it took so much back and forth to even try to agree on some hard facts about COVID. I don't expect you or anyone to believe in my market theory but I think it'll be fun to keep it in mind and see if it works out that way.  ;)

 

I actually agree with you—the market slowly edges up as positive covid news comes out, but then when we get vaccine approval/reopen economy, crash as the “forward looking” market faces the harsh reality beyond covid: long term economic damage from covid, a potential Biden presidency with Dems at the helm ready to raise taxes and pay for all the costs of Corona mismanagement from Trump. Like a stock that rises in anticipation to an expectedly positive earnings report, but crashes when earnings are released even when it’s a beat.

 

And even if the punchbowl can’t be taken away completely, there is no way fiscal and monetary stimulus can continue at current levels anything beyond short term...

 

But then again, pontificating on markets while fun, is highly useless IMO and not reliable. I‘d rather spend time on individual names and have lots of liquidity in times of uncertainty. But if you have high conviction, would love to hear the reasoning behind that, though I remain skeptical of anyone who can forecast short term price movements in general.