Spekulatius Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 On what basis are viruses not living things? It can’t replicate by itself, it needs a host to replicate. On a different matter, outbreak in Church in Germany - 107 cases all at once! Ouch. All churches in the area have been closed again. https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/coronavirus-in-frankfurt-am-main-mehr-als-hundert-glaeubige-in-kirche-infiziert-a-a94cf16c-f765-4549-b49f-704f33568b00 (There is an escalation Rule in place that allows only 50 cases within 7 days /100k population that if exceeded lights to a re-tightening of distancing rules in the affected county area. This rule was triggered here in even more than one county)
Liberty Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 The bottom line analysis from the Korean CDC demonstrating that those testing positive for SARSCoV2 after recovering from covid WERE NOT infected or contagious. The positive hit on the subsequent PCR test was dead virus and could not replicate in viral cell culture.
Pauly Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 On what basis are viruses not living things? Interesting reading on the subject : https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-viruses-alive-2004/
rb Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 On what basis are viruses not living things? It can’t replicate by itself, it needs a host to replicate. Doesn't a human, or any mammal for that matter need the same thing?
Spekulatius Posted May 25, 2020 Posted May 25, 2020 On what basis are viruses not living things? It can’t replicate by itself, it needs a host to replicate. On a different matter, outbreak in Church in Germany - 107 cases all at once! Ouch. All churches in the area have been closed again. https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/coronavirus-in-frankfurt-am-main-mehr-als-hundert-glaeubige-in-kirche-infiziert-a-a94cf16c-f765-4549-b49f-704f33568b00 (There is an escalation Rule in place that allows only 50 cases within 7 days /100k population that if exceeded lights to a re-tightening of distancing rules in the affected county area. This rule was triggered here in even more than one county) In another article it was mentioned that one of the main reason why mean processing plant workers are so susceptible to COVID-19 is because they are operating in relative crowded conditions, but also because the air temperature is typically low (4-7 Deg C) making the folks that stand there a long time more susceptible to respiratory infections. Dalal mentioned this - it applies to common cold, but COVID-19 likely as well. This might be one reason why southern states do relatively better but it also might mean a second wave isomorphic likely in fall/ early winter just like the Flu.
Spekulatius Posted May 26, 2020 Posted May 26, 2020 Here is another interesting paper. It’s basically showing evidence that COVID-19 progresses from an respiratory to a cardio disease in its severe case. this manifests itself in blood vessel inflammation and clogging up small blood vessels causing oxygen deprivation. Ventilators don’t help much in this case any more this is a cardiovascular diseases at this point sind I know docs are treating this differently now (blood Thinners like Heparin etc.). Hopefully this will lead to better outcomes. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2015432 Now back to bashing Trump.
DocSnowball Posted May 26, 2020 Posted May 26, 2020 Here is another interesting paper. It’s basically showing evidence that COVID-19 progresses from an respiratory to a cardio disease in its severe case. this manifests itself in blood vessel inflation and clogging up small Blut vessels causing oxygen deprivation. Ventilators don’t help much in this case any more this is a cardiovascular diseases at this point sind I know docs are treating this differently now (blood Thinners like Heparin etc.). hopefully this will lead to better outcomes. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2015432 Now back to bashing Trump. Excellent point. This is one of the things changing the mortality rate, along with having more hospital space and staff capacity available, and to some extent Remdesivir and IL-6 receptor blockers. It will be interesting to look at the mortality rate by severity category June onwards now that so much more is known.
Investor20 Posted May 26, 2020 Posted May 26, 2020 https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/label/2017/009768s037s045s047lbl.pdf Hydroxychloroquine dosage recommendations by FDA approved label: Rheumatoid Arthritis The action of hydroxychloroquine is cumulative and may require weeks to months to achieve the maximum therapeutic effect (see CLINICAL PHARMACOLOGY). Initial adult dosage: 400 mg to 600 mg (310 to 465 mg base) daily, administered as a single daily dose or in two divided doses. In a small percentage of patients, side effects may require temporary reduction of the initial dosage. Maintenance adult dosage: When a good response is obtained, the dosage may be reduced by 50 percent and continued at a maintenance level of 200 mg to 400 mg (155 to 310 mg base) daily, administered as a single daily dose or in two divided doses. Do not exceed 600 mg or 6.5 mg/kg (5 mg/kg base) per day, whichever is lower, as the incidence of retinopathy has been reported to be higher when this maintenance dose is exceeded. Corticosteroids and salicylates may be used in conjunction with PLAQUENIL, and they can generally be decreased gradually in dosage or eliminated after a maintenance dose of PLAQUENIL has been achieved. Lupus Erythematosus The recommended adult dosage is 200 to 400 mg (155 to 310 mg base) daily, administered as a single daily dose or in two divided doses. Doses above 400 mg a day are not recommended. The incidence of retinopathy has been reported to be higher when this maintenance dose is exceeded. John Hopkins article on Lupus treatment: Lastly, remember that even though you may feel the benefits of anti-malarial therapy after about a month of treatment, it may take up to three months for the full benefits of the drug to manifest. If you experience any serious adverse effects, notify your doctor. Can I stop taking anti-malarials suddenly? Long-term anti-malarial use is normally safe. However, if you stop taking your anti-malarial drugs, you may experience a lupus flare. https://www.hopkinslupus.org/lupus-treatment/lupus-medications/antimalarial-drugs/ NYU Grossman study dose: Patients were categorized based on their exposure to hydroxychloroquine (400 mg load followed by 200 mg twice daily for five days) and azithromycin (500 mg once daily) alone or with zinc sulfate (220 mg capsule containing 50 mg elemental zinc twice daily for five days) as treatment in addition to standard supportive care. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.02.20080036v1.full.pdf Please explain the problem. For discussion only. Not medical advise. Please consult your doctor. These are prescription only medicines.
Cigarbutt Posted May 26, 2020 Posted May 26, 2020 On what basis are viruses not living things? It can’t replicate by itself, it needs a host to replicate. On a different matter, outbreak in Church in Germany - 107 cases all at once! Ouch. All churches in the area have been closed again. https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/coronavirus-in-frankfurt-am-main-mehr-als-hundert-glaeubige-in-kirche-infiziert-a-a94cf16c-f765-4549-b49f-704f33568b00 (There is an escalation Rule in place that allows only 50 cases within 7 days /100k population that if exceeded lights to a re-tightening of distancing rules in the affected county area. This rule was triggered here in even more than one county) In another article it was mentioned that one of the main reason why meat processing plant workers are so susceptible to COVID-19 is because they are operating in relative crowded conditions, but also because the air temperature is typically low (4-7 Deg C) making the folks that stand there a long time more susceptible to respiratory infections. Dalal mentioned this - it applies to common cold, but COVID-19 likely as well. This might be one reason why southern states do relatively better but it also might mean a second wave isomorphic likely in fall/ early winter just like the Flu. i've looked at various meat processors over the years (for example Hormel Foods, HRL) and they have produced impressive financial numbers IMO related to impressive growth in productivity but also (ab)use of an expendable workforce. In Germany, it seems that a majority of meat processing workers are migrants (Eastern and Southern Europe). In the US, it's been reported that 30 to 50% of the workforce is composed of undocumented immigrants. It appears that living conditions for the typical worker involves crowded and multi-generational habitats. It looks like some places are taking advantage of the fact that a virus does not replicate well in robots (even those that don't take chloroquine, zinc, vitamin F3 and elderberry extract juice). https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-makes-the-case-for-more-meatpacking-robots/ Anecdotal addition: As a kid, i had the opportunity to visit a sausage factory. i came away fascinated by human ingenuity. It also took a while before i could eat sausages. Often, it's better not to know. At times, it is.
Jurgis Posted May 26, 2020 Posted May 26, 2020 On a different matter, outbreak in Church in Germany - 107 cases all at once! Ouch. All churches in the area have been closed again. https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/coronavirus-in-frankfurt-am-main-mehr-als-hundert-glaeubige-in-kirche-infiziert-a-a94cf16c-f765-4549-b49f-704f33568b00 They never learn, do they. ::)
Liberty Posted May 27, 2020 Posted May 27, 2020 https://www.lifehacker.com.au/2020/05/no-wearing-a-mask-isnt-dangerous/
LongHaul Posted May 27, 2020 Posted May 27, 2020 Liberty - any thoughts on the risk of getting infected outside if you are at least 15 feet away? I did hear of a cases in Japan where kids were wearing N95 masks and exercising hard and got hypoxia (low oxygen) and ended up dead. I think wearing a mask inside is a signal of virtue.
Liberty Posted May 27, 2020 Posted May 27, 2020 Liberty - any thoughts on the risk of getting infected outside if you are at least 15 feet away? Probably very very low, though not impossible, as it depends what you're doing outside (touching surfaces touched by many others?). I did hear of a cases in Japan where kids were wearing N95 masks and exercising hard and got hypoxia (low oxygen) and ended up dead. Source? I think wearing a mask inside is a signal of virtue. I think wearing a mask inside can be a very good idea in certain situations, and not do much in others. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
mattee2264 Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/22/nothing-can-justify-this-destruction-of-peoples-lives/ Interesting take on the virus.
Cigarbutt Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 So (after a relatively acute phase because of genetic novelty), it seems that the new CV is about to enter a lingering phase, perhaps similar to other CVs and influenza (seasonal etc). The COVID-19 episode has renewed impetus for the anti-vaxxer movement. http://www.apnorc.org/projects/Pages/Expectations-for-a-COVID-19-Vaccine.aspx A vaccine for new CV is clearly not a slam dunk but may become a useful long-term and evolving tool. It appears (and this is detrimental to the premises underlying the efficacy of vaccines) that a significant portion of the population will actively or passively not have it (them). The determinants behind the anti-vaxxer movement are fascinating. The movement attracts different flavors: environmental, anti-BigPharma, celebrity cult followers. More recently the wide availability of poor and false information spread on the internet or social media has been a great enhancer of individuals who think they know better and who have deep antipathy to 'experts'. It seems that the common sense crowd (at least a significant portion of them) who felt that the first phase would be like the flu and that opening up should be done indiscriminately also believe the anti-vaxxer message. In 1776, when Thomas Paine disseminated Common Sense, he underlined the importance of keeping a healthy dose of skepticism against government and authority but encouraged people to use science and reason over beliefs. The development of Internet has been great but it is only a tool.
DocSnowball Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 One important factor to consider is beliefs of the burden of disease versus beliefs of harm from the vaccine. This NEJM perspective article sheds light. IMHO cities and communities that have seen significant disease impact will have more successful vaccine rollouts. Go big and go fast - vaccine refusal and eradication https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1300765 Many factors contribute to the development of clusters of people who refuse vaccines, including changes over time in attitudes toward vaccines. If aggressive control efforts have substantially reduced a disease's incidence, few people in a given community may have direct (or indirect) experience with that disease. Therefore, successive age cohorts have only a vague collective memory of the disease's dangers, whereas people may frequently hear about real and perceived adverse effects of vaccination. Parental perception of risks and benefits associated with vaccines is thus altered, and vaccine refusals often increase.1 North American and European countries, for example, have seen substantial reductions in the rates of vaccine-preventable diseases. Since vaccines against measles, mumps, rubella, and diphtheria were introduced in the United States, their incidence has been reduced by more than 99%, and the incidence of tetanus has fallen by 94% since routine tetanus vaccination began.2,3 These decreases have coincided with increases in vaccine refusal in the United States and Europe. The notion that vaccine acceptance is influenced by rates of vaccine-preventable diseases is supported by theories from behavioral sciences. For example, a useful framework for understanding vaccine acceptance is the health-belief model, according to which the uptake of a health intervention is associated with perceived susceptibility to and severity of the relevant disease and the intervention's safety and efficacy. Empirical studies have validated this model as a predictor of vaccine refusal. In the context of eradication, reduction in disease incidence reduces the perceptions of susceptibility to disease and its complications, diminishing an important motivation for accepting a vaccine.
Liberty Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 On the psychology behind the man, which helps explain a lot of the COVID reaction (and the rest of his life, frankly): https://medium.com/@tony_schwartz/the-psychopath-in-chief-aa10ab2165d9 This is written by the man who wrote The Art of the Deal for Trump and spent hundreds of hours with him over 18 month, so he's got plenty of first-hand experience.
Castanza Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 On the psychology behind the man, which helps explain a lot of the COVID reaction (and the rest of his life, frankly): https://medium.com/@tony_schwartz/the-psychopath-in-chief-aa10ab2165d9 This is written by the man who wrote The Art of the Deal for Trump and spent hundreds of hours with him over 18 month, so he's got plenty of first-hand experience. You should spend less time thinking about Trump. Tony Schwartz isn't even a psychologist.
Liberty Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 On the psychology behind the man, which helps explain a lot of the COVID reaction (and the rest of his life, frankly): https://medium.com/@tony_schwartz/the-psychopath-in-chief-aa10ab2165d9 This is written by the man who wrote The Art of the Deal for Trump and spent hundreds of hours with him over 18 month, so he's got plenty of first-hand experience. You should spend less time thinking about Trump. Tony Schwartz isn't even a psychologist. I'll think about whatever I want, thank you very much. I guess I can't know anything about investing, I've never studied it and don't have a degree. I suggest you watch this documentary, it's very interesting: [Part 1] [Part 2] [Part 3] [Part 4] [Part 5] [Part 6] [Part 7] [Part 8] [Part 9]
Spekulatius Posted May 28, 2020 Posted May 28, 2020 We talk about thr VOVID-19 in the US a lot, but what is going on in Canada? It seems they the quebecois have a high affinity to the virus or is this a NE thing? https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107066/covid19-confirmed-cases-by-province-territory-canada/
clutch Posted May 29, 2020 Posted May 29, 2020 "New data from CDC estimates COVID 19 mortality rate is 0.4%, significantly lower than previously reported" https://www.wcnc.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/data-cdc-estimates-covid-19-mortality-rate/275-fc43f37f-6764-45e3-b615-123459f0082b
Cigarbutt Posted May 29, 2020 Posted May 29, 2020 We talk about thr VOVID-19 in the US a lot, but what is going on in Canada? It seems they the quebecois have a high affinity to the virus or is this a NE thing? https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107066/covid19-confirmed-cases-by-province-territory-canada/ Canada's market cap is less than 3% of global market cap and Quebec is largely irrelevant but since you ask. Looking at standardized reported numbers, mortality rates in Canada without the two central (and most populous) provinces (Ontario and Quebec) are comparable to Germany. Ontario has been reporting number showing slightly lower mortality versus average US. In my province (Quebec) mortality numbers compare to Spain, Italy etc. Reasons for relatively higher numbers are many and include slight differences in policy choices and application. However, the main reason for higher mortality in my province is a slightly older age demographic profile and, especially, at much higher rate of chronic care institutionalization for elderlies (about 3x the rate versus the rest of Canada). 80% of deaths occur in people living in large chronic care institutions (Petri dish scenario). With more data coming in, it looks like the overall mortality rate (global) will be relatively low (tip of the iceberg versus the whole iceberg). The following is an interesting study dealing with some kind of natural experiment. However, i can tell you that, for population at risk, including older, sicker and clustered, this CV thing can be decimating and is nothing like the flu (at least this first wave). https://thorax.bmj.com/content/early/2020/05/27/thoraxjnl-2020-215091.full Maybe i'm taking too much space here but here's an embarrassing situation. Last Thursday, i participated in an international symposium (virtual) and one of the speakers was Dr. Heidi Stensmyren (relevant clinician and policy advocate in Stockholm) and while she explained their rationale, it appeared clear that they were playing this for the long run, keeping an eye for overall costs and showing better numbers than my province when it was pretty much in full lockdown..Canada's "stimulus" program (both federal and provincial) is running at about 20% of GDP and still counting..
KCLarkin Posted May 29, 2020 Posted May 29, 2020 "New data from CDC estimates COVID 19 mortality rate is 0.4%, significantly lower than previously reported" https://www.wcnc.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/data-cdc-estimates-covid-19-mortality-rate/275-fc43f37f-6764-45e3-b615-123459f0082b Probably shouldn’t trust a source that doesn’t know what “data” means.
Spekulatius Posted May 29, 2020 Posted May 29, 2020 "New data from CDC estimates COVID 19 mortality rate is 0.4%, significantly lower than previously reported" https://www.wcnc.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/data-cdc-estimates-covid-19-mortality-rate/275-fc43f37f-6764-45e3-b615-123459f0082b Probably shouldn’t trust a source that doesn’t know what “data” means. 0.4% is lower than the estimates I have seen (~0.75%), but it still would mean 800k death if we go all the way to herd immunity and get 200M Americans infected Ted. This would mean that we are about 1/8 through with this epidemic. Just saying. The numbers from Quebec vs. other Canadian provinces looks interesting, due to the huge difference in outcome compared to other provinces. It’s clear that relatively small differences in starting points lead to vastly different results in outcome. Perhaps not so surprising, considering the math behind epidemics and the nature of logistics function.
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