Energy Sector

[Gregmal]

26 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Trump economy must deliver to win basically.

That’s always how it’s been. That’s why Harris/Biden 2 got smoked. That’s why Obama was elected. And that’s how it should be.

 

And frankly, Trump deserves some penalizing for getting duped by Israel into a prolonged Iran conflict that’s negatively impacted things as well.

[Sloanes Teddy]

35 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

IF the economy is solid, I do think 2028 election goes to Republicans - reform or not.  IF the economy is rough (Trump economic plan fails to deliver) and no election reform - we're toast.

Bad economy, with election reform, like we lose.

 

Trump economy must deliver to win basically.

 

Promises to the middle/working class have to materialize.

 

Foreign policy won't matter unless there is a disaster like hundreds killed in Iran.

So without reform you think the 2028 election will be corrupt and said corruption will/could sway the election result?

[SharperDingaan]

12 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

IF the economy is solid, I do think 2028 election goes to Republicans - reform or not.  IF the economy is rough (Trump economic plan fails to deliver) and no election reform - we're toast.

Bad economy, with election reform, like we lose.

 

Trump economy must deliver to win basically.

 

Promises to the middle/working class have to materialize.

 

Foreign policy won't matter unless there is a disaster like hundreds killed in Iran.

 

We're also inclined to the Republicans taking 2028; primarily 'cause the Democrats are so bad, and the Republican leader will be other than Trump (term limits).

 

Canada's last federal election should have been won by the Conservatives, who were 20+ % ahead at one point; solely 'cause the sitting prime minister was so hated. Trudeau got replaced by a better alternative (Carney), the Conservatives couldn't adapt, and lost the election to a Liberal minority government. Democrats counting on a win, 'cause Trump becomes despised.

 

However, a Republican landslide, should Trump get assassinated before then.

The party wins both the sympathy vote, and the opportunity to dump all the 'negatives' on Trump. The (corrupt?) family gets a free pass, as nobody is going to prosecute the family of a presidential hero who died for the nation (Jackie Kennedy/Onassis). The ME gets to claim (and sponsor?) the 'eye-for-an-eye' decapitation of the Great Satan (covering for the actual assassins). Arlington is looking more and more inevitable. 

 

Of course, it would be far better for all if both sides actually raised their game; though one doesn't have to raise the bar much, when the opposition is truly awful.

 

SD

Edited Sunday at 02:22 PM by SharperDingaan

[SharperDingaan]

Getting difficult to keep tankers crewed in the SOH.

https://gcaptain.com/shipowner-offers-seafarers-six-months-pay-to-sail-through-strait-of-hormuz/

 

" Sinokor Group, the world’s largest owner of supertankers, offered six months extra salary if they make a return voyage, which it said would take about a month in total. [Other] shipping firms were adding as much as 60 days of salary to a 30-day contract".

 

The highest-paid person on most ships is the captain, who has the ultimate say on navigational decisions. They earn as much as $15,000 a month on oil tankers, according to officials at two shipping companies. A junior sailor, known as a rating, might earn about $1,500 a month in normal times. They have the right to ask to leave a vessel and be replaced if they don’t want to sail into the danger zone. 

 

“We have heard stories of a large number of crew members getting off, but they are able to find people who are willing to go.” Junior ratings are not rich people, and typically have families reliant upon their continuing income to survive .... things have to be extremely bad for them to give it up. 

 

One of these under-crewed tankers gets attacked, it's abandoned at sea .... salvage for the picking  

All this before the Houthi threats on Red Sea tankers, and the closer proximity of Somali pirates looking for salvage.

 

SD

Edited Tuesday at 09:12 PM by SharperDingaan

[Fly]

37 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

Getting difficult to keep tankers crewed in the SOH.

https://gcaptain.com/shipowner-offers-seafarers-six-months-pay-to-sail-through-strait-of-hormuz/

 

" Sinokor Group, the world’s largest owner of supertankers, offered six months extra salary if they make a return voyage, which it said would take about a month in total. [Other] shipping firms were adding as much as 60 days of salary to a 30-day contract".

 

The highest-paid person on most ships is the captain, who has the ultimate say on navigational decisions. They earn as much as $15,000 a month on oil tankers, according to officials at two shipping companies. A junior sailor, known as a rating, might earn about $1,500 a month in normal times. They have the right to ask to leave a vessel and be replaced if they don’t want to sail into the danger zone. 

 

“We have heard stories of a large number of crew members getting off, but they are able to find people who are willing to go.” Junior ratings are not rich people, and typically have families reliant upon their continuing income to survive .... things have to be extremely bad for them to give it up. 

 

One of these under-crewed tankers gets attacked, it's abandoned at sea .... salvage for the picking  

All this before the Houthi threats on Red Sea tankers, and the closer proximity of Somali pirates looking for salvage.

 

SD

 

BWET has been on a rampage, if crew wages go up then this will get truly nutty.

[ratiman]

What if US just leaves? I could see Trump just leaving and pretending that the war never happened. Trump has reached max frustration and he's finally realizing there are no options left. Iran charging a few million per tanker was always the easiest option and it still is. 

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, ratiman said:

What if US just leaves? I could see Trump just leaving and pretending that the war never happened. Trump has reached max frustration and he's finally realizing there are no options left. Iran charging a few million per tanker was always the easiest option and it still is. 

I actually think that will end up happening more or less. The gulf states know that they will need to live with Iran no matter what and will hedge their bets accordingly and make a deal with Iran of some sorts,

[Marco Van Basten]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I actually think that will end up happening more or less. The gulf states know that they will need to live with Iran no matter what and will hedge their bets accordingly and make a deal with Iran of some sorts,

I doubt that Israel will allow Iran to make billions of dollars from the Strait since the money will be used to attack Israel.  Given Iran's current regime well known goal of wiping Israel off the map, the threat to Israel is existential, and hence I doubt that Israel will let it stand.  

[73 Reds]

6 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

I doubt that Israel will allow Iran to make billions of dollars from the Strait since the money will be used to attack Israel.  Given Iran's current regime well known goal of wiping Israel off the map, the threat to Israel is existential, and hence I doubt that Israel will let it stand.  

That is correct.  The transformation that has already occurred in the Middle East is remarkable.  Rather than focusing on near term politics, Trump and Israel are seeking long term solutions.  The possibilities are incredible for most  moderate Arab countries, along with the rest of the World.  Iran will eventually share the bounty but it will require regime change.  That is Israel's express goal - with or without US assistance.  My guess is a lot is happening that is not being reported so the usual complainers will continue to complain while real progress is being made.  

Edited 8 hours ago by 73 Reds
word

[Blake Hampton]

In the United States today, even amidst record levels of domestic production and factoring out unsustainable SPR drawdowns, we remain a net importer of around 798 million barrels of crude oil annually.

 

Our country's overall consumption of the black gold is roughly 6 billion barrels a year. Given there are approximately 343 million Americans, that's 17.5 barrels consumed for every man, woman, and child in our nation. At 300 pounds a barrel, that works out to nearly 5,300 pounds of crude oil for each person. For perspective, the combined weight of all food and fluids consumed by the average American is only about 4,500 pounds a year.

 

So crude oil is important.

 

Some other points:

 

A. Since the start of the new millennium, global reserve replacements have run at roughly a sixth of current production levels. The world is simply not finding more oil. Furthermore, the small quantities being found often lie in locations requiring high extraction costs.

 

B. Shale wells lose most of their output within their first year, forcing continuous drilling just to keep production flat. This makes shale production an accelerating treadmill driven by steepening decline rates, which continue to increase as operators are running out of prime drilling locations.

 

C. The world's geopolitical situation is fracturing. This has an untold number of effects, not least of which involve the relative value of currencies. Oil prices have an inverse relationship to the strength of the USD, making future monetary policy and the balance of payments increasingly important.

 

But politics remains a great risk to many things, oil investment of course being only one of them. I don't even blame the socialists at this point. That's how you know they're dangerous.

[Blake Hampton]

While I'm extremely bullish on oil prices over the long term, the more immediate concern to me is how surging inflation might affect credit markets.

[SharperDingaan]

Near term, most would expect that Murban, Brent, and WTI will be going up. Higher, faster, as Trump flounders, global inventories are materially lower, and China has resumed buying. It would also seem that China bound tankers are being allowed out of the Red Sea; most would expect for a fee ... paid in weapons delivered to the Houthis and Somalis. 

 

Longer term, there will eventually be a practical arrangement that works for all. But years away still, not until many of the existing heads of state have changed, and security guarantees have been 'modernised'.     

 

The inflation thing is very 'iffy'. Sure, gasoline may cost more (inflation), but net of driving less and keeping the tank only 1/2 full (substitution), no clear direction. Trump loses the midterms (chaos), tariffs get reimbursed (inflation), tariffs get rescinded (deflation) .... all very uncertain, situation specific, and hard to generalise.

 

SD

 

Edited 50 minutes ago by SharperDingaan