schin Posted February 20 Posted February 20 On 1/28/2026 at 6:00 PM, SharperDingaan said: Let's just say that Israel's equivalent to Airforce 1/Cabinet evacuation has been repeatedly practised all this week, there are now enough flying tankers in the region to maintain 8-10 hours of continuous attack by a lot of planes, embassies have been quietly pulling out lower level staff and their families, and there have been some seaborne deliveries to key locations. Orange Boy has suddenly started escalating, Iran is digging in, and western markets are closed for two days starting Friday night. Maybe something happens, maybe it doesn't, but it would be foolish not to be prepared. SD Anyone have any thoughts on the best energy/oil trade if there is an Iran/US invasion? What the best oil stock to play from a valuation perspective? PBR? OXY? I haven't kept up with all the investment topics on energy in general. Just wondering if anyone is exploring it as a "Kashi trade" LOL.
Fly Posted February 20 Posted February 20 On 2/19/2026 at 12:44 AM, UK said: Also this is what Gemini told me re batteries: Chinese humanoid robots, such as the UBTECH Walker S2 and AgiBot models, typically last between 2 to 4 hours on a single charge during active, continuous operation. To achieve 24/7, non-stop operation, these robots utilize advanced, autonomous battery-swapping systems that replace depleted batteries in just 3 minutes. Key details regarding Chinese humanoid battery life: UBTECH Walker S2: This model features a 48-volt lithium battery system, allowing for 2–4 hours of work before requiring a charge. The robot can autonomously go to a charging station, remove its own battery, and swap in a fresh one. Batteries... so many batteries...
Spekulatius Posted February 21 Posted February 21 On 2/19/2026 at 12:44 AM, UK said: Also this is what Gemini told me re batteries: Chinese humanoid robots, such as the UBTECH Walker S2 and AgiBot models, typically last between 2 to 4 hours on a single charge during active, continuous operation. To achieve 24/7, non-stop operation, these robots utilize advanced, autonomous battery-swapping systems that replace depleted batteries in just 3 minutes. Key details regarding Chinese humanoid battery life: UBTECH Walker S2: This model features a 48-volt lithium battery system, allowing for 2–4 hours of work before requiring a charge. The robot can autonomously go to a charging station, remove its own battery, and swap in a fresh one. Not much different than people grabbing some lunch or go for dinner.
UK Posted February 21 Posted February 21 (edited) Also Gemini estimates it to cost depending on the model anywhere between 68 to 188 K USD. This seems like much, but imagine if cost because of the mass production would decrease like sun panel costs. And even at that price...I used to do some CBA for transportation in my previous life and do not remember figures no where as close to these figures 15 years ago, but it seems value of a statistical life estimate at DOT currently sits ~14 M USD and at OECD is 4-10 M USD, depending on a country. Edited February 21 by UK
SharperDingaan Posted February 21 Posted February 21 (edited) 17 hours ago, schin said: Anyone have any thoughts on the best energy/oil trade if there is an Iran/US invasion? Overweight an intermediate CAD oilsands producer. Sell off 25% in the days following invasion, a 2nd tranche of 25% once the shock and awe settles down. 3rd tranche of 25% when there are calls for troops on the ground to implement regime change. Proceeds kept as cash to buy back later. Orange Boy badly needs a distraction from the tarrif ruling, and is rapidly running out of options for the mid-term elections. Starting a war has to be one of his best remaining options .... if tweets are not to turn into 'quacks' from a lame duck president SD Edited February 21 by SharperDingaan
Ulti Posted February 21 Posted February 21 56 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said: range Boy badly needs a distraction from the tarrif ruling, and is rapidly running out of options for the mid-term elections. Starting a war has to be one of his best remaining options https://metro.co.uk/2026/02/20/donald-trump-orders-release-secret-files-aliens-ufos-27011837/ https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-15577477/air-force-jet-area-51-trump-ufo-files.html I like the alien option better.
Sweet Posted March 1 Posted March 1 Oil may spike higher on opening, bringing with it many totally crap oil companies. I don’t think Trump will tolerate a spike in oil prices, and I’m sure he his allies will coordinate the release of strategic oil reserves should there be one, if history is anything to go by, that will cause oil prices to crash. So if we do get a spike, I’ll be on the hunt for puts. Probably first place I’ll look is puts on XES which is loaded with terrible companies.
frommi Posted March 1 Posted March 1 Most of the oil from that region goes to asia, how can the release of the US reserves (which are only at 60%) even help? (and it would be a small amount compare to what is blocked in the strait) It looks like we see a pretty long blockage of the strait without US troops on the ground, i doubt this is over on monday or tuesday.
Sweet Posted March 1 Posted March 1 4 minutes ago, frommi said: Most of the oil from that region goes to asia, how can the release of the US reserves (which are only at 60%) even help? (and it would be a small amount compare to what is blocked in the strait) It looks like we see a pretty long blockage of the strait without US troops on the ground, i doubt this is over on monday or tuesday. It’s a global market, if Asia is cut off they bid up prices from other regions. Some grades of crude are also important, particularly the heavy stuff, so even if only a small % is destined for a particular part of the world it’s typically used to blend to get the required fuel ratios. Not saying there will be a spike, I’ve no idea, just that if there is I would expect a coordinated release of reserves.
Sweet Posted March 1 Posted March 1 25 minutes ago, frommi said: Weekend oil prices point to a +10% gap. Well if that’s all the movement no point looking on Monday then.
SharperDingaan Posted March 1 Posted March 1 WTI opens at USD 72+, Brent at USD 79. Have to think there will also be an upward bias as the prospective days long closure of the Strait of Hormuz begins to penetrate. Higher still as tanker traffic continues to back up. SD
Sweet Posted March 2 Posted March 2 Probably an upward bias yes. I’m surprised that the WTI bulls wet dream has caused only a 10% increase in oil prices. I haven’t paid much attention to oil sector this past year or two, but sentiment and supply / demand dynamics musts be very bearish.
SharperDingaan Posted March 2 Posted March 2 (edited) A lot of people are going to make a great deal of 'funny money' in this cycle as energy prices spike upward; particularly those in the safer supply and more disciplined WCSB. It isn't just oil prices, it is rotation out of tech as well, momentum, west coast egress availability, hedging via Canadian vs US holdings, and the much cheaper valuations. Everybody is a millionaire, when there are positive press articles every day, and the share price has risen 2-3x. But .... holding onto the 'funny money' when the hangover arrives ... is what makes you rich. Enjoy yourself, dance with all the pretty girls, help yourself to the punch .... but systematically keep taking the gains off the table. As the cycle progresses, less stock and more calls ... to near 100% of the position May the pillage be awesome, and may we all make, or remake, our biggest fortunes to date . Just keep in mind that there will be a lot of very depressed people and suicides, once the hangover has persisted for a time. One of the hardest things is seeing friends and neighbours go to the wall (despite your warnings) ... when you've both kept the 'funny money', and also tripled it on the way down. Compassion is a hard won lesson. Bookends. SD Edited March 2 by SharperDingaan
schin Posted March 3 Posted March 3 On 2/20/2026 at 3:45 PM, Fly said: Batteries... so many batteries... @Fly - I was looking at the rare minerals trade for these batteries, drones, EVs.
schin Posted March 3 Posted March 3 On 2/20/2026 at 10:23 AM, schin said: Anyone have any thoughts on the best energy/oil trade if there is an Iran/US invasion? What the best oil stock to play from a valuation perspective? PBR? OXY? I haven't kept up with all the investment topics on energy in general. Just wondering if anyone is exploring it as a "Kashi trade" LOL. Anything oil or energy would have worked. But, buying RTX with all the missiles fired and radar systems...is a good play too.
SharperDingaan Posted March 3 Posted March 3 (edited) Nice spike in WTI this morning to USD 77 (+8%). The great hope is a release from the US SPR at USD 80/bbl ... of course, the reality is that there is very little heavy oil in the SPR (the required), most of what is available is light (not required), and Venezuelan heavy is limited via degraded infrastructure. Fixable .... but not for a while yet The Hail Mary is that the Iran war is over within 5 weeks (35 days), everybody comes home in time for the FIFA World Cup (100 days), there are ticker tape parades for the great saviours, a weeks long party, then off to the polls to vote the saviours back in. The problem is that this does NOT look like the Iran war is going to be done in 35 days, it will be body bags ... not servicemen coming home < 35 days, no party, and a a lot of the FIFA games in either Canada or Mexico as players/supporters can't play in the US (banned countries). Great for Canadian and Mexican tourism ... not so much for US tourism, and the mid-terms. Have to think that WTI will be going a lot higher than USD 77/bbl Buckle up. SD Edited March 3 by SharperDingaan
Fly Posted March 3 Posted March 3 11 hours ago, schin said: @Fly - I was looking at the rare minerals trade for these batteries, drones, EVs. I like that angle as well, but haven't looked as closely at the raw materials. Any names you like in particular? I assume US/Canadian producers/refiners would be key here for the defense supply chain aspect
schin Posted March 3 Posted March 3 3 hours ago, Fly said: I like that angle as well, but haven't looked as closely at the raw materials. Any names you like in particular? I assume US/Canadian producers/refiners would be key here for the defense supply chain aspect @Fly - I've been looking at MP Materials ($MP), which has an DoW equity investment and also, a floor pricing arrangement.
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 3 Posted March 3 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-03/trump-says-us-will-escort-insure-oil-tankers-amid-iran-war Quote President Donald Trump said the US would provide insurance guarantees and naval escorts to ensure safe passage for oil tankers and other vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, measures meant to head off a potential energy crisis caused by the war with Iran. Quote “No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD,” the president posted on social media. Yet another reminder that this president will do whatever he can to keep a lid on oil prices
SharperDingaan Posted March 3 Posted March 3 (edited) On 3/3/2026 at 3:11 PM, Dalal.Holdings said: Yet another reminder that this president will do whatever he can to keep a lid on oil prices The article neglects to mention .... it's also a US blockade on sanctioned Iranian exports, and only on certain cargo's. As long as its a ship registered to friendly parties, or a cargo owned by friendly parties, you're golden Maybe those Chinese cargo's are allowed through for the right 'fee' ? .... or maybe not. Maybe that temporarily US owned cargo on an Iranian ship ... for the right fee? If you want production from Kharg Island ..... ships routinely sink in awkward places, and Iranian oil smugglers are amongst the best in the world SD Edited March 5 by SharperDingaan
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 3 Posted March 3 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/03/china-calls-protection-vessels-strait-hormuz-amid-soaring-shipping-costs Quote The Chinese government has called for vessels passing through the strait of Hormuz to be protected by all sides in the escalating Iran conflict, as shipping freight rates soared. Both the CCP (Iran's "friend") and the President of the U.S. have a strong interest in keeping oil & gas flowing through the Strait ("the spice must flow"). I think that tells you a lot about where energy is likely headed after the recent spike.
Blake Hampton Posted March 3 Posted March 3 51 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said: Yet another reminder that this president will do whatever he can to keep a lid on oil prices You're correct. Just as he will do whatever he can to keep inflation at bay, interest rates low, the stock market booming, housing prices high, etc. But what about the long term? I post frequently about how global reserves are being replaced at only a small fraction of current global production. I also strongly believe demand will only continue to grow. What then will this situation look like in 10 years? What about in 20 years? I of course have the same concern with items like our national debt.
SharperDingaan Posted March 3 Posted March 3 (edited) Tankers will ultimately move through the SOH, but it's in no ones interest to make it easy, or cheap. That Iranian crude is currently sanctioned, and going to Russia/China at deeply discounted prices .... keep it blockaded, and crude goes up as both Russia/China are forced into the unsanctioned market . Lift the blockade, pay the 3-5% 'tax' per cargo, Kharg Island continues to flow, crude prices largely remain as they are, Russia/China pay world price, and Iran's revenue shoots up But .... how does a very vain man ... publicly lift sanctions on a nation that the US is currently at war with ? pay the smugglers to not go scorched earth, and improve the oppositions ability to fight . Welcome to Iran! SD . Edited March 6 by SharperDingaan
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 3 Posted March 3 This is too funny...China's "friends" the Iranian Regime are getting pounded and what's China's message to them? Keep the Strait open and lay off Qatari gas, Saudi oil, etc. Quote Senior gas executives said earlier that China has been pressuring Iranian officials behind the scenes, urging them to avoid action that would disrupt Qatari gas exports or other energy shipments making their way through the strait. So far, at least four commercial ships have reportedly been damaged.
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