Buying puts before 10 am tomorrow?

[Cardboard]

I guess it is 10:00 MT.

 

I may buy some.

 

Why do I have a feeling that Powell will screw up again? Well, at least disappoint.

 

Cardboard

 

 

[Spekulatius]

I guess it is 10:00 MT.

 

I may buy some.

 

Why do I have a feeling that Powell will screw up again? Well, at least disappoint.

 

Cardboard

 

So what does screwing up mean in your opinion? I guess it’s the choice between no cut and a 0.25% cut. My odds would be 50/50. I honestly think it doesn’t matter.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

I find it amusing that some people are expecting him to commit to a huge rate cut or something.  This isn’t even an FOMC meeting.

 

To be fair, the signaling can be just as important as the actions. I think that's what most people are expecting from JH - signaling of a commitment in one direction or the other

[meiroy]

 

 

60% he cuts 0.25

4% he cuts 0.5

52% he says something stupid and messes up whatever he is trying to achieve.

 

100% I bought popcorn.

 

 

[Gregmal]

Puts already paying off lol.

 

But China just set the stage for a potentially very ugly day with dimwit Powell in the on deck circle... Buckle up.

[Spekulatius]

 

 

60% he cuts 0.25

4% he cuts 0.5

52% he says something stupid and messes up whatever he is trying to achieve.

 

100% I bought popcorn.

Powell hasn’t  mastered the art of Greenspan doublespeak to say nothing , but phrase it in a way that everyone can take away whatever they like.

 

However given what we know, why would we even care what he says?

[meiroy]

 

 

60% he cuts 0.25

4% he cuts 0.5

52% he says something stupid and messes up whatever he is trying to achieve.

 

100% I bought popcorn.

Powell habt mastered the art of Greenspan doublespeak to say nothing , but phrase it in a way that everyone can take away whatever they like.

 

However given what we know, why would we even care what he says?

 

Because it's entertaining?  Someone just announced more tariffs on US goods, about 1.5 hours before the market opens. Coincidence, no doubt.

 

Tim Duy's Fed Watch is a fantastic source to figure out all this Fed talk:

 

https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/

[TwoCitiesCapital]

 

 

60% he cuts 0.25

4% he cuts 0.5

52% he says something stupid and messes up whatever he is trying to achieve.

 

100% I bought popcorn.

Powell habt mastered the art of Greenspan doublespeak to say nothing , but phrase it in a way that everyone can take away whatever they like.

 

However given what we know, why would we even care what he says?

 

Because it's entertaining?  Someone just announced more tariffs on US goods, about 1.5 hours before the market opens. Coincidence, no doubt.

 

Tim Duy's Fed Watch is a fantastic source to figure out all this Fed talk:

 

https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/

 

1.5 hours before on a day where there was already a pretty high probability of disappointment out of the Fed not committing to further easing!

 

Buckle up.

[Gregmal]

The problem for Powell is Trump. Trump is right. But how does Powell do what Trump is saying to do, while not looking like a partisan hack or Trump's bitch? In this case, Donald should just shut up because he's making Powell, an already awkward guy, do and say these stupid short term things just to later rationalize doing his job...

 

Powell likely wants to ease, but with all Trumps bs, he is afraid to have it appear as though he is acknowledging that Trump was right and he was wrong. So instead he minces words to take the other side, while at the same time gravitating towards making the decision he wants to...It's dumb. But predictable. And now it seems Trump thinks he can ratchet up the trade war, because worst case it just forces the Fed to ease more...

[Gregmal]

I must say, Trump is such a moron sometimes... just shut up

[gfp]

That was great - right on cue.  I would cover now 

 

I must say, Trump is such a moron sometimes... just shut up

[Cardboard]

Trump ask what is our bigger enemy: Powell or Xi? I thought he said Xi was a friend of is???

 

Then orders all U.S. companies to move out of China.

 

Why playing around here? Let's just state that we don't recognize One China and arm Taiwan with nukes.

 

I thought that China would look to defuse the situation but, they certainly didn't this morning with more tarrifs or just ahead of September meetings. War is now a real possibility IMO.

 

Cardboard

 

 

[Spekulatius]

LOL. Sounds like Trump overdoses his Adderrall ( or whatever he is taking) today.

 

Saw a sign today at a neighbors lawn:

“Any functioning grown up 2020”.

 

It’s a tall order though.

[merkhet]

From a twitter account I follow: "he's gonna make the Fed more hawkish and the SCOTUS more liberal than they otherwise would be because he is a complete moron"

 

Trump ask what is our bigger enemy: Powell or Xi? I thought he said Xi was a friend of is???

 

Then orders all U.S. companies to move out of China.

 

Why playing around here? Let's just state that we don't recognize One China and arm Taiwan with nukes.

 

I thought that China would look to defuse the situation but, they certainly didn't this morning with more tarrifs or just ahead of September meetings. War is now a real possibility IMO.

 

Cardboard

 

I suspect the idea is that if the market continues to tank and the economy continues to soften, they will be dealing with someone else in 2021.

[Cardboard]

My fear is that we don't make it to 2021...

 

Cardboard

[RuleNumberOne]

If Trump had never commented on the Federal Reserve for the last 3 years, he could have had his trade war with just a small scratch on the stock market instead of the major wounds it has now.

 

The Fed is there to help. Trump just needs to calm down and stop commenting on the Fed.

[DooDiligence]

Why should he quit shitposting when it's great for his private account.

 

Short & cover, short & cover, short & cover.

 

I'll bet he's levered to the hilt.

[Cardboard]

Well DooDiligence, I have stated multiple times that if there was something to investigate it should be insider trading.

 

There are way too many of these market moving tweets with high impact. Way too many people involved or in the entourage for this not to be the case.

 

Cardboard

[merkhet]

I suspect the idea is that if the market continues to tank and the economy continues to soften, they will be dealing with someone else in 2021.

 

That is a higher probability event than a lot of my capitalist friends seem to think IMO.  God help us if we end up with a mad socialist in the White House.

 

Texas has an open primary, so I will be voting in the Democratic primary for the first time in my life to try and help that not happen.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Well DooDiligence, I have stated multiple times that if there was something to investigate it should be insider trading.

 

There are way too many of these market moving tweets with high impact. Way too many people involved or in the entourage for this not to be the case.

 

Cardboard

 

Politicians aren't subject to insider trading laws and their portfolios returns regularly do better than the average retail investor. Go figure.

[DooDiligence]

Well DooDiligence, I have stated multiple times that if there was something to investigate it should be insider trading.

 

There are way too many of these market moving tweets with high impact. Way too many people involved or in the entourage for this not to be the case.

 

Cardboard

 

Politicians aren't subject to insider trading laws and their portfolios returns regularly do better than the average retail investor. Go figure.

 

>:( >:( >:(

[Spekulatius]

^ Texas needs another one or two elections cycles to turn blue.

 

We would be better off, if Trump just goes golfing for the remainder of his presidency.

[Cardboard]

I actually bought some calls today.

 

Yup, VIX calls before Powell. Then they lost me a lot of money until the imbecile started Tweeting. Then proceeded to sell them for a decent profit.

 

It is a very small consolation for a very bad day.

 

So where do we go from here? Do you guys still think that a deal with China is possible?

 

Calling Xi the enemy, ordering companies to move out. I mean, this is going too far.

 

Cardboard

[Gregmal]

Yea....

 

I am about as big an advocate of much of Trump's tactics, and rhetoric in terms of slapping back many of these loser lefties.... but Im sick of this kind of uncalled for nonsense and the constant bullying where it isn't needed. HE picked Powell. And now the guy can't breathe without Trumps rampant bullshit. The market liked what Powell said today. Then Trump starts in AGAIN...unprovoked. HE escalated things with Xi. Then today HE comes out of nowhere with a bunch of 10 level responses to a 3 level action... We'd be several hundred points green today and because of this idiot we are probably finishing 500+ points lower with a setup for a really, really, nasty Monday...Give me Biden.

[Guest]

Shouldn't you guys be hoping for lower prices, not higher ones? Part of me would kind of like it if Trump just came out of no where and banned all trade with China (though I'd prefer for people not to get hurt in the real world). I wouldn't be surprised at all if he does that if he loses in 2020.