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Buying puts before 10 am tomorrow?


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I guess it is 10:00 MT.

 

I may buy some.

 

Why do I have a feeling that Powell will screw up again? Well, at least disappoint.

 

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So what does screwing up mean in your opinion? I guess it’s the choice between no cut and a 0.25% cut. My odds would be 50/50. I honestly think it doesn’t matter.

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I find it amusing that some people are expecting him to commit to a huge rate cut or something.  This isn’t even an FOMC meeting.

 

To be fair, the signaling can be just as important as the actions. I think that's what most people are expecting from JH - signaling of a commitment in one direction or the other

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I find it amusing that some people are expecting him to commit to a huge rate cut or something.  This isn’t even an FOMC meeting.

 

To be fair, the signaling can be just as important as the actions. I think that's what most people are expecting from JH - signaling of a commitment in one direction or the other

 

That’s true.  Personally I’m quite skeptical that he’ll say what Mr Market wants to hear given the circumstances (the US economy is holding up okay so far; the issues we’re seeing are almost surely due to tariffs and other geopolitical issues which I don’t think the Fed can fix; and the Fed itself is divided on whether it’s a good idea to cut rates preemptively or not). 

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60% he cuts 0.25

4% he cuts 0.5

52% he says something stupid and messes up whatever he is trying to achieve.

 

100% I bought popcorn.

Powell hasn’t  mastered the art of Greenspan doublespeak to say nothing , but phrase it in a way that everyone can take away whatever they like.

 

However given what we know, why would we even care what he says?

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60% he cuts 0.25

4% he cuts 0.5

52% he says something stupid and messes up whatever he is trying to achieve.

 

100% I bought popcorn.

Powell habt mastered the art of Greenspan doublespeak to say nothing , but phrase it in a way that everyone can take away whatever they like.

 

However given what we know, why would we even care what he says?

 

Because it's entertaining?  Someone just announced more tariffs on US goods, about 1.5 hours before the market opens. Coincidence, no doubt.

 

Tim Duy's Fed Watch is a fantastic source to figure out all this Fed talk:

 

https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/

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60% he cuts 0.25

4% he cuts 0.5

52% he says something stupid and messes up whatever he is trying to achieve.

 

100% I bought popcorn.

Powell habt mastered the art of Greenspan doublespeak to say nothing , but phrase it in a way that everyone can take away whatever they like.

 

However given what we know, why would we even care what he says?

 

Because it's entertaining?  Someone just announced more tariffs on US goods, about 1.5 hours before the market opens. Coincidence, no doubt.

 

Tim Duy's Fed Watch is a fantastic source to figure out all this Fed talk:

 

https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/

 

1.5 hours before on a day where there was already a pretty high probability of disappointment out of the Fed not committing to further easing!

 

Buckle up.

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The problem for Powell is Trump. Trump is right. But how does Powell do what Trump is saying to do, while not looking like a partisan hack or Trump's bitch? In this case, Donald should just shut up because he's making Powell, an already awkward guy, do and say these stupid short term things just to later rationalize doing his job...

 

Powell likely wants to ease, but with all Trumps bs, he is afraid to have it appear as though he is acknowledging that Trump was right and he was wrong. So instead he minces words to take the other side, while at the same time gravitating towards making the decision he wants to...It's dumb. But predictable. And now it seems Trump thinks he can ratchet up the trade war, because worst case it just forces the Fed to ease more...

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Trump ask what is our bigger enemy: Powell or Xi? I thought he said Xi was a friend of is???

 

Then orders all U.S. companies to move out of China.

 

Why playing around here? Let's just state that we don't recognize One China and arm Taiwan with nukes.

 

I thought that China would look to defuse the situation but, they certainly didn't this morning with more tarrifs or just ahead of September meetings. War is now a real possibility IMO.

 

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From a twitter account I follow: "he's gonna make the Fed more hawkish and the SCOTUS more liberal than they otherwise would be because he is a complete moron"

 

Trump ask what is our bigger enemy: Powell or Xi? I thought he said Xi was a friend of is???

 

Then orders all U.S. companies to move out of China.

 

Why playing around here? Let's just state that we don't recognize One China and arm Taiwan with nukes.

 

I thought that China would look to defuse the situation but, they certainly didn't this morning with more tarrifs or just ahead of September meetings. War is now a real possibility IMO.

 

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I suspect the idea is that if the market continues to tank and the economy continues to soften, they will be dealing with someone else in 2021.

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I suspect the idea is that if the market continues to tank and the economy continues to soften, they will be dealing with someone else in 2021.

 

That is a higher probability event than a lot of my capitalist friends seem to think IMO.  God help us if we end up with a mad socialist in the White House.

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Well DooDiligence, I have stated multiple times that if there was something to investigate it should be insider trading.

 

There are way too many of these market moving tweets with high impact. Way too many people involved or in the entourage for this not to be the case.

 

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I suspect the idea is that if the market continues to tank and the economy continues to soften, they will be dealing with someone else in 2021.

 

That is a higher probability event than a lot of my capitalist friends seem to think IMO.  God help us if we end up with a mad socialist in the White House.

 

Texas has an open primary, so I will be voting in the Democratic primary for the first time in my life to try and help that not happen.

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Well DooDiligence, I have stated multiple times that if there was something to investigate it should be insider trading.

 

There are way too many of these market moving tweets with high impact. Way too many people involved or in the entourage for this not to be the case.

 

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Politicians aren't subject to insider trading laws and their portfolios returns regularly do better than the average retail investor. Go figure.

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Well DooDiligence, I have stated multiple times that if there was something to investigate it should be insider trading.

 

There are way too many of these market moving tweets with high impact. Way too many people involved or in the entourage for this not to be the case.

 

Cardboard

 

Politicians aren't subject to insider trading laws and their portfolios returns regularly do better than the average retail investor. Go figure.

 

>:( >:( >:(

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I suspect the idea is that if the market continues to tank and the economy continues to soften, they will be dealing with someone else in 2021.

 

That is a higher probability event than a lot of my capitalist friends seem to think IMO.  God help us if we end up with a mad socialist in the White House.

 

Texas has an open primary, so I will be voting in the Democratic primary for the first time in my life to try and help that not happen.

 

Your service is greatly appreciated!

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