Cardboard Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 I guess it is 10:00 MT. I may buy some. Why do I have a feeling that Powell will screw up again? Well, at least disappoint. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 I guess it is 10:00 MT. I may buy some. Why do I have a feeling that Powell will screw up again? Well, at least disappoint. Cardboard So what does screwing up mean in your opinion? I guess it’s the choice between no cut and a 0.25% cut. My odds would be 50/50. I honestly think it doesn’t matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHDL Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 I find it amusing that some people are expecting him to commit to a huge rate cut or something. This isn’t even an FOMC meeting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 I find it amusing that some people are expecting him to commit to a huge rate cut or something. This isn’t even an FOMC meeting. To be fair, the signaling can be just as important as the actions. I think that's what most people are expecting from JH - signaling of a commitment in one direction or the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHDL Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 I find it amusing that some people are expecting him to commit to a huge rate cut or something. This isn’t even an FOMC meeting. To be fair, the signaling can be just as important as the actions. I think that's what most people are expecting from JH - signaling of a commitment in one direction or the other That’s true. Personally I’m quite skeptical that he’ll say what Mr Market wants to hear given the circumstances (the US economy is holding up okay so far; the issues we’re seeing are almost surely due to tariffs and other geopolitical issues which I don’t think the Fed can fix; and the Fed itself is divided on whether it’s a good idea to cut rates preemptively or not). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meiroy Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 60% he cuts 0.25 4% he cuts 0.5 52% he says something stupid and messes up whatever he is trying to achieve. 100% I bought popcorn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 Puts already paying off lol. But China just set the stage for a potentially very ugly day with dimwit Powell in the on deck circle... Buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 60% he cuts 0.25 4% he cuts 0.5 52% he says something stupid and messes up whatever he is trying to achieve. 100% I bought popcorn. Powell hasn’t mastered the art of Greenspan doublespeak to say nothing , but phrase it in a way that everyone can take away whatever they like. However given what we know, why would we even care what he says? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meiroy Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 60% he cuts 0.25 4% he cuts 0.5 52% he says something stupid and messes up whatever he is trying to achieve. 100% I bought popcorn. Powell habt mastered the art of Greenspan doublespeak to say nothing , but phrase it in a way that everyone can take away whatever they like. However given what we know, why would we even care what he says? Because it's entertaining? Someone just announced more tariffs on US goods, about 1.5 hours before the market opens. Coincidence, no doubt. Tim Duy's Fed Watch is a fantastic source to figure out all this Fed talk: https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 60% he cuts 0.25 4% he cuts 0.5 52% he says something stupid and messes up whatever he is trying to achieve. 100% I bought popcorn. Powell habt mastered the art of Greenspan doublespeak to say nothing , but phrase it in a way that everyone can take away whatever they like. However given what we know, why would we even care what he says? Because it's entertaining? Someone just announced more tariffs on US goods, about 1.5 hours before the market opens. Coincidence, no doubt. Tim Duy's Fed Watch is a fantastic source to figure out all this Fed talk: https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/ 1.5 hours before on a day where there was already a pretty high probability of disappointment out of the Fed not committing to further easing! Buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 The problem for Powell is Trump. Trump is right. But how does Powell do what Trump is saying to do, while not looking like a partisan hack or Trump's bitch? In this case, Donald should just shut up because he's making Powell, an already awkward guy, do and say these stupid short term things just to later rationalize doing his job... Powell likely wants to ease, but with all Trumps bs, he is afraid to have it appear as though he is acknowledging that Trump was right and he was wrong. So instead he minces words to take the other side, while at the same time gravitating towards making the decision he wants to...It's dumb. But predictable. And now it seems Trump thinks he can ratchet up the trade war, because worst case it just forces the Fed to ease more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 I must say, Trump is such a moron sometimes... just shut up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 That was great - right on cue. I would cover now I must say, Trump is such a moron sometimes... just shut up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted August 23, 2019 Author Share Posted August 23, 2019 Trump ask what is our bigger enemy: Powell or Xi? I thought he said Xi was a friend of is??? Then orders all U.S. companies to move out of China. Why playing around here? Let's just state that we don't recognize One China and arm Taiwan with nukes. I thought that China would look to defuse the situation but, they certainly didn't this morning with more tarrifs or just ahead of September meetings. War is now a real possibility IMO. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 LOL. Sounds like Trump overdoses his Adderrall ( or whatever he is taking) today. Saw a sign today at a neighbors lawn: “Any functioning grown up 2020”. It’s a tall order though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 From a twitter account I follow: "he's gonna make the Fed more hawkish and the SCOTUS more liberal than they otherwise would be because he is a complete moron" Trump ask what is our bigger enemy: Powell or Xi? I thought he said Xi was a friend of is??? Then orders all U.S. companies to move out of China. Why playing around here? Let's just state that we don't recognize One China and arm Taiwan with nukes. I thought that China would look to defuse the situation but, they certainly didn't this morning with more tarrifs or just ahead of September meetings. War is now a real possibility IMO. Cardboard I suspect the idea is that if the market continues to tank and the economy continues to soften, they will be dealing with someone else in 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted August 23, 2019 Author Share Posted August 23, 2019 My fear is that we don't make it to 2021... Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHDL Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 I suspect the idea is that if the market continues to tank and the economy continues to soften, they will be dealing with someone else in 2021. That is a higher probability event than a lot of my capitalist friends seem to think IMO. God help us if we end up with a mad socialist in the White House. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleNumberOne Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 If Trump had never commented on the Federal Reserve for the last 3 years, he could have had his trade war with just a small scratch on the stock market instead of the major wounds it has now. The Fed is there to help. Trump just needs to calm down and stop commenting on the Fed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 Why should he quit shitposting when it's great for his private account. Short & cover, short & cover, short & cover. I'll bet he's levered to the hilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted August 23, 2019 Author Share Posted August 23, 2019 Well DooDiligence, I have stated multiple times that if there was something to investigate it should be insider trading. There are way too many of these market moving tweets with high impact. Way too many people involved or in the entourage for this not to be the case. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 I suspect the idea is that if the market continues to tank and the economy continues to soften, they will be dealing with someone else in 2021. That is a higher probability event than a lot of my capitalist friends seem to think IMO. God help us if we end up with a mad socialist in the White House. Texas has an open primary, so I will be voting in the Democratic primary for the first time in my life to try and help that not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 Well DooDiligence, I have stated multiple times that if there was something to investigate it should be insider trading. There are way too many of these market moving tweets with high impact. Way too many people involved or in the entourage for this not to be the case. Cardboard Politicians aren't subject to insider trading laws and their portfolios returns regularly do better than the average retail investor. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 Well DooDiligence, I have stated multiple times that if there was something to investigate it should be insider trading. There are way too many of these market moving tweets with high impact. Way too many people involved or in the entourage for this not to be the case. Cardboard Politicians aren't subject to insider trading laws and their portfolios returns regularly do better than the average retail investor. Go figure. >:( >:( >:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHDL Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 I suspect the idea is that if the market continues to tank and the economy continues to soften, they will be dealing with someone else in 2021. That is a higher probability event than a lot of my capitalist friends seem to think IMO. God help us if we end up with a mad socialist in the White House. Texas has an open primary, so I will be voting in the Democratic primary for the first time in my life to try and help that not happen. Your service is greatly appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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