Company with the best prospect for the next decade

[shalab]

We have some interesting prospects and let us use this poll to figure out what the board thinks about these

[Travis Wiedower]

Why are those the four options?

[Jurgis]

Who is Sham Gad and what is PGNT? Anyone has a story or a writeup?

[DCG]

Those are 4 bad options to choose from.

 

 

Are you looking for companies we think will do well for the next decade, or stocks we think will do well (as those are 2 different things).

 

 

I still like Visa, Mastercard, UPS, Fedex, and Amazon, as I think people will continue to buy buy (and pay for things), and have them shipped for at least 10 years.  8)

[LC]

I guess manager is the better descriptor here. I choose Sanjeev because I think he has the upmost ethics to go along with skill set. The others may also have this as well, but I have never met them so I don't know for sure. #teamsanjeev

[Gamecock-YT]

the bitcoin iced tea company

[rkbabang]

the bitcoin iced tea company

 

That would be ridiculous. It’s the blockchain iced tea company.

[karthikpm]

None of the above. I agree with DCG that there are several other businesses that are more predictable and superior businesses. As Warren says, "When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact."

 

 

[Jurgis]

None of the above. I agree with DCG that there are several other businesses that are more predictable and superior businesses. As Warren says, "When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact."

 

Just for fun: which companies listed in the original poll have "management with a reputation for brilliance" and which ones "tackle a business with a reputation for bad economics"? Audience wants to know.  8)

[John Hjorth]

Have you found out about Sham Gad and PGNT, Jurgis?

[Jurgis]

Have you found out about Sham Gad and PGNT, Jurgis?

 

Nobody answered here. I'm still interested. Did not yet have time to dig deeper myself, just read short blurbs.

[John Hjorth]

Jurgis,

 

PGNT is [was?] a microcap discussed years ago here on CoBF. Perhaps it was before you joined CoBF. To say the least, the content of the posts about it was not positive [bH-like]. With my perception achieved over the years of your personal investment style, it's not worth your time to try to dig it up here on CoBF. [i tried to look it up based on the question in your post here in this topic by doing a search here on CoBF, but came out empty handed.]

[frugalchief]

Have you found out about Sham Gad and PGNT, Jurgis?

 

Nobody answered here. I'm still interested. Did not yet have time to dig deeper myself, just read short blurbs.

 

Jurgis, I've wasted my time researching and reading what Sham has done/written.  Don't waste yours.

[AzCactus]

What about which company/management team has the best prospect for the next decade?

1. BAM-Bruce Flatt

2. MKL-Thomas S. Gayner

3. CMPR- Robert S. Keane

4. CSU-Mark Henri Leonard

[Jurgis]

Have you found out about Sham Gad and PGNT, Jurgis?

 

Nobody answered here. I'm still interested. Did not yet have time to dig deeper myself, just read short blurbs.

 

Jurgis, I've wasted my time researching and reading what Sham has done/written.  Don't waste yours.

 

OK. Thanks guys.  8)

 

Edit: For posterity, I redid the search on CoBF and this time I found the following links:

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/wtf!/msg306751/#msg306751

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/paragon-technologies-pgnt/msg308971/#msg308971

There are couple other threads with possibly more positive mentions of PGNT but no details, so I'm not posting the links. These should be findable through search too.

[Jurgis]

What about which company/management team has the best prospect for the next decade?

1. BAM-Bruce Flatt

2. MKL-Thomas S. Gayner

3. CMPR- Robert S. Keane

4. CSU-Mark Henri Leonard

 

Decade is a long time. I'm sure Philip Tetlock is mostly right and predictions longer than 5 years are no better than guesswork.

 

That said and for fun:

1. BAM - good business, good management. From shareholder point of view the issue is that they might become too large for good returns/good investments/moving the needle.

2. MKL - good management, not clear how the business gonna go, tough to invest in public equities at current price points and expect great returns.

3. CMPR - no comment . 8)

4. CSU - good business, good management. Scaling may or may not work well.

 

If I had to invest into just one, I'd buy BAM. If I had to predict the winner in business metrics (not necessarily share price), I'd bet on CSU.

[bizaro86]

I would echo the comments that I don't like the choices. I'd put a write in vote for IBKR.

[shalab]

I am surprised no one voted for PGNT - for Sham Gad.

 

For PDH, All Parsad has to do is call his firm - Premier BlockChain Holdings as the premier Canadian offering of blockchain. The stock will soar!

 

[rb]

Decade is a long time. I'm sure Philip Tetlock is mostly right and predictions longer than 5 years are no better than guesswork.

 

With the risk of being ridiculed here in a decade I will go out and predict with high confidence that Berkshire will be a great company in 10 years time and also much larger than it is today.

[Guest longinvestor]

Decade is a long time. I'm sure Philip Tetlock is mostly right and predictions longer than 5 years are no better than guesswork.

 

With the risk of being ridiculed here in a decade I will go out and predict with high confidence that Berkshire will be a great company in 10 years time and also much larger than it is today.

+1 just like the decade we're in.

 

[Guest cherzeca]

Decade is a long time. I'm sure Philip Tetlock is mostly right and predictions longer than 5 years are no better than guesswork.

 

With the risk of being ridiculed here in a decade I will go out and predict with high confidence that Berkshire will be a great company in 10 years time and also much larger than it is today.

 

are you indifferent to whether buffett/munger have left the land of the willing? you say they will be much bigger. who will make these acquisition decisions? recency bias can be important when the top two guys have a combined 175 years

[Guest cherzeca]

at the risk of ridicule, i will posit that blockchain will become increasingly important in finance/wall street/central banking and that there will be a first mover advantage to be gained over the next few years that will become very valuable 10 years from now.  as far as i can tell, ostk is the only company that appreciates this opportunity right now.

 

 

[rb]

Decade is a long time. I'm sure Philip Tetlock is mostly right and predictions longer than 5 years are no better than guesswork.

 

With the risk of being ridiculed here in a decade I will go out and predict with high confidence that Berkshire will be a great company in 10 years time and also much larger than it is today.

 

are you indifferent to whether buffett/munger have left the land of the willing? you say they will be much bigger. who will make these acquisition decisions? recency bias can be important when the top two guys have a combined 175 years

Yes my statement is indifferent to whether the two good shepherds will be with us or not. The subs will make a lot of acquisitions. They will also deploy growth capital. Also there's gonna be the occasional deal of a larger size done by T&T.

[DooDiligence]

at the risk of ridicule, i will posit that blockchain will become increasingly important in finance/wall street/central banking and that there will be a first mover advantage to be gained over the next few years that will become very valuable 10 years from now.  as far as i can tell, ostk is the only company that appreciates this opportunity right now.

 

Softbank

 

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170907006799/en/SoftBank-Sprint-EasTone-TBCASoft-Launch-Blockchain-Consortium

 

also

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-softbank-deal-limits-travis-kalanicks-power-but-hes-ok-with-that-2017-12

 

"The board has also agreed to aim for an IPO in 2019."

[Sharad]

I'd pick MO or BTI. Tobacco just tends to do well over time. I don't think the four choices were ideal. I'm not looking for a money manager (I'll try to do that myself).