Your returns in 2016

[philippoc93]

25.29 % for my first year as an investor net of expenses but pre-tax.

 

Biggest contributors to this gain were DVN and PLBC

 

Laggards have been BXE, STNG, and GILD

 

Best luck to everyone in 2017  :)

[flesh]

2016= 15% avg 26% in cash so roic much higher. Nothing lost more than 1% of capital, almost every position contributed.

 

2015= 6% avg 24% cash, started incubator hedge fund 1-1-15 TSE killed it rest of portfolio lost money.

 

2014= 25% 10% cash

 

2013= 46% 5% cash

 

2012=26% 5% cash

 

23% cagr, 14% avg cash position, all the risk ratio's are good apparently, although I don't know why people care. Never used margin/options, very little shorting.

 

2011, picked up Buffett's biography on my way to cape town, read it twice back to back.

 

Biggest mistake through first five years of investing is underestimating what people are willing to pay when things look rosy, selling prematurely. Second biggest is being a bit under invested at times. Third, investing in things that require something to go right for the thesis to work.

[Guest Schwab711]

2012: 4.13%

2013: 74.54%

2014: 31.37%

2015: 19.71%

2016: 27.53%

 

CAGR: 34.09%

 

All pre-tax. I'm not sure but I think ST gains have been trivial since 2013. Don't use margin. ~10%-20% cash in 2016. The election rally made 2016 look better than it was on pace for.

[Uccmal]

24.72% Time Weighted Return

28.07% Money Weighted Return

 

Not a bad year considering I was holding a ton of cash (0-15% throughout the year), was actively short the U.S. markets by about 30-40% notional value throughout the year, and that 10% of my portfolio is FRFHF which didn't do much this year.

 

Basically, this was the reversion trade, led by a handful of names that did terrible in 2014/2015. Commodities and EM were my saving grace this year and I was very fortunate in my timing of adding to most names catching them near their bottoms before taking a wild ride upward.

 

Major contributors to performance were PEFIX, CLD, CNXC, PDER, ATUSF, BSBR, SBRCY, LUKOY, FNMA, and FNMAJ.

 

Are you still short US markets? 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

24.72% Time Weighted Return

28.07% Money Weighted Return

 

Not a bad year considering I was holding a ton of cash (0-15% throughout the year), was actively short the U.S. markets by about 30-40% notional value throughout the year, and that 10% of my portfolio is FRFHF which didn't do much this year.

 

Basically, this was the reversion trade, led by a handful of names that did terrible in 2014/2015. Commodities and EM were my saving grace this year and I was very fortunate in my timing of adding to most names catching them near their bottoms before taking a wild ride upward.

 

Major contributors to performance were PEFIX, CLD, CNXC, PDER, ATUSF, BSBR, SBRCY, LUKOY, FNMA, and FNMAJ.

 

Are you still short US markets?

 

I reopened about half of them after the bulk of the rally following November's election. Still waiting on clarity for lasting corporate tax reform or for markets to begin to tank to get confident enough to go back to where it was at.

 

Ultimately, the healthier the U.S. economy is, the higher interest rates go, the higher the dollar goes, and the higher wages will go. These will all act counter-cyclically to continue their contribution to negative earnings growth and I don't believe that there will be an incrementally large pick-up in U.S. consumer spending anytime soon to offset it given that we're hitting years where boomer retirements will be offsetting new job entrants (typically, spending drops in retirement and new workers won't be making enough to offset it).

 

TL;DR - I'm expecting corporate profits to continue to fall in 2017. Was clearly wrong about 7 or so quarters of profit contractions being the end of the bull market, but I have a harder time believing markets will be ok with 11-12 straight quarters of corporate profit contraction without an eventual correction.

 

[benchmark]

24.72% Time Weighted Return

28.07% Money Weighted Return

 

Not a bad year considering I was holding a ton of cash (0-15% throughout the year), was actively short the U.S. markets by about 30-40% notional value throughout the year, and that 10% of my portfolio is FRFHF which didn't do much this year.

 

Basically, this was the reversion trade, led by a handful of names that did terrible in 2014/2015. Commodities and EM were my saving grace this year and I was very fortunate in my timing of adding to most names catching them near their bottoms before taking a wild ride upward.

 

Major contributors to performance were PEFIX, CLD, CNXC, PDER, ATUSF, BSBR, SBRCY, LUKOY, FNMA, and FNMAJ.

 

Are you still short US markets?

 

I reopened about half of them after the bulk of the rally following November's election. Still waiting on clarity for lasting corporate tax reform or for markets to begin to tank to get confident enough to go back to where it was at.

 

Ultimately, the healthier the U.S. economy is, the higher interest rates go, the higher the dollar goes, and the higher wages will go. These will all act counter-cyclically to continue their contribution to negative earnings growth and I don't believe that there will be an incrementally large pick-up in U.S. consumer spending anytime soon to offset it given that we're hitting years where boomer retirements will be offsetting new job entrants (typically, spending drops in retirement and new workers won't be making enough to offset it).

 

TL;DR - I'm expecting corporate profits to continue to fall in 2017. Was clearly wrong about 7 or so quarters of profit contractions being the end of the bull market, but I have a harder time believing markets will be ok with 11-12 straight quarters of corporate profit contraction without an eventual correction.

 

How did you short it?

[Uccmal]

24.72% Time Weighted Return

28.07% Money Weighted Return

 

Not a bad year considering I was holding a ton of cash (0-15% throughout the year), was actively short the U.S. markets by about 30-40% notional value throughout the year, and that 10% of my portfolio is FRFHF which didn't do much this year.

 

Basically, this was the reversion trade, led by a handful of names that did terrible in 2014/2015. Commodities and EM were my saving grace this year and I was very fortunate in my timing of adding to most names catching them near their bottoms before taking a wild ride upward.

 

Major contributors to performance were PEFIX, CLD, CNXC, PDER, ATUSF, BSBR, SBRCY, LUKOY, FNMA, and FNMAJ.

 

Are you still short US markets?

 

I reopened about half of them after the bulk of the rally following November's election. Still waiting on clarity for lasting corporate tax reform or for markets to begin to tank to get confident enough to go back to where it was at.

 

Ultimately, the healthier the U.S. economy is, the higher interest rates go, the higher the dollar goes, and the higher wages will go. These will all act counter-cyclically to continue their contribution to negative earnings growth and I don't believe that there will be an incrementally large pick-up in U.S. consumer spending anytime soon to offset it given that we're hitting years where boomer retirements will be offsetting new job entrants (typically, spending drops in retirement and new workers won't be making enough to offset it).

 

TL;DR - I'm expecting corporate profits to continue to fall in 2017. Was clearly wrong about 7 or so quarters of profit contractions being the end of the bull market, but I have a harder time believing markets will be ok with 11-12 straight quarters of corporate profit contraction without an eventual correction.

 

I tend to agree.  Impossible to time but it will happen. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

24.72% Time Weighted Return

28.07% Money Weighted Return

 

Not a bad year considering I was holding a ton of cash (0-15% throughout the year), was actively short the U.S. markets by about 30-40% notional value throughout the year, and that 10% of my portfolio is FRFHF which didn't do much this year.

 

Basically, this was the reversion trade, led by a handful of names that did terrible in 2014/2015. Commodities and EM were my saving grace this year and I was very fortunate in my timing of adding to most names catching them near their bottoms before taking a wild ride upward.

 

Major contributors to performance were PEFIX, CLD, CNXC, PDER, ATUSF, BSBR, SBRCY, LUKOY, FNMA, and FNMAJ.

 

Are you still short US markets?

 

I reopened about half of them after the bulk of the rally following November's election. Still waiting on clarity for lasting corporate tax reform or for markets to begin to tank to get confident enough to go back to where it was at.

 

Ultimately, the healthier the U.S. economy is, the higher interest rates go, the higher the dollar goes, and the higher wages will go. These will all act counter-cyclically to continue their contribution to negative earnings growth and I don't believe that there will be an incrementally large pick-up in U.S. consumer spending anytime soon to offset it given that we're hitting years where boomer retirements will be offsetting new job entrants (typically, spending drops in retirement and new workers won't be making enough to offset it).

 

TL;DR - I'm expecting corporate profits to continue to fall in 2017. Was clearly wrong about 7 or so quarters of profit contractions being the end of the bull market, but I have a harder time believing markets will be ok with 11-12 straight quarters of corporate profit contraction without an eventual correction.

 

How did you short it?

 

A few different ways.

 

I had direct shorts in IWM & SPY indices as well as long-term put options at varying strikes on the SPY. At varying times, I also sold covered calls against some of my more volatile positions if I felt the premiums compensated me enough for the risk of losing out.

 

I also used indirect shorts/hedges in the form of a 25+ year, zero-coupon bond ETF (rates tend to rally when equities sell off) and large holdings of Fairfax who was also short IWM with a large bond portfolio and deflation swaps.

 

The calls and the bond ETF went a long way to offsetting the losses of the shorts and the put options. Some well timed trading around the put options in January/February also helped. Probably detracted ~2% of total portfolio returns over the course of the whole year to be 30-40% notionally short through most of it.

[BG2008]

A little late to the convo but 24.99% in my Roth IRA - Portfolio was very concentrated in my best ideas in 2016.  Going forward, I will probably look to diversify a bit as the overall dollar amount in the Roth IRA has grown in the last few years. 

[rkbabang]

-9%

 

I had a bad year.  I had way too many BAC Jan2017 options and sold too early.  I was down so much at one point in the year that I was happy to sell two days after the election when they went up a bit.  I could have held on another month and had an excellent year.  I think I'm done with options for good.  I'll certainly never hold such a huge concentrated position in them again.

 

[chrispy]

Late to this thread out of disappointment but there is no benefit in not holding myself accountable.  Started at the very end of 2014 in my roth:

 

2015 - -3.3%

2016 - 2%

 

CAGR - -0.47%

 

MKL and FFH knocked me back quite a bit at the end of Q3.  Trying not to lose money but also not trying to be outpaced by basic indices!  Very happy to have found this community a few months ago as I have learned quite a bit. 

 

Always need to remind myself, patience!

 

 

[benchmark]

-9%

 

I had a bad year.  I had way too many BAC Jan2017 options and sold too early.  I was down so much at one point in the year that I was happy to sell two days after the election when they went up a bit.  I could have held on another month and had an excellent year.  I think I'm done with options for good.  I'll certainly never hold such a huge concentrated position in them again.

I had the same issue -- took a big loss on Jan 16, but held on to Jan 17. Fortunately, it worked out, but it was very stressful

[Paarslaars]

I sold my common right before the election, kicking myself too now but that should teach me not to make macro plays... clearly I don't know what I'm doing.

 

[DocSnowball]

2016: 192% (in my very concentrated portfolio of only three investments)

 

Beginner's luck - my first full year in investing after becoming infected with the value investing bug midway into my MBA.

Hope to continue compounding slowly year on year

Best wishes to all of you for 2017!

[DooDiligence]

2016: 192% (in my very concentrated portfolio of only three investments)

 

Beginner's luck - my first full year in investing after becoming infected with the value investing bug midway into my MBA.

Hope to continue compounding slowly year on year

Best wishes to all of you for 2017!

 

Are you still holding the 3 for more?

[Uccmal]

I sold my common right before the election, kicking myself too now but that should teach me not to make macro plays... clearly I don't know what I'm doing.

 

Are you so sure that was a bad move?  Buying back in now may be the bad move.  We are into one of the longest bull cycles of all time.  How much more upside, or how much longer can it go?  No one knows of course, but probability says there is a 100% chance of a bear market. 

 

In the position you have created which is presumably got lots of cash, I would be inclined to sit and wait, and cherry pick.  I am essentially buying nothing right now.  I am short term trading around core positions but thats it.  Core positions I dont mind getting stuck with. 

[DocSnowball]

2016: 192% (in my very concentrated portfolio of only three investments)

 

Beginner's luck - my first full year in investing after becoming infected with the value investing bug midway into my MBA.

Hope to continue compounding slowly year on year

Best wishes to all of you for 2017!

 

Are you still holding the 3 for more?

 

Yes, two of them are still way undervalued in my very naive opinion! Haven't found anything with high conviction in last 6 months

 

FNMAT/FNMA, AKAO (long only)

[Paarslaars]

I sold my common right before the election, kicking myself too now but that should teach me not to make macro plays... clearly I don't know what I'm doing.

 

Are you so sure that was a bad move?  Buying back in now may be the bad move.  We are into one of the longest bull cycles of all time.  How much more upside, or how much longer can it go?  No one knows of course, but probability says there is a 100% chance of a bear market. 

 

In the position you have created which is presumably got lots of cash, I would be inclined to sit and wait, and cherry pick.  I am essentially buying nothing right now.  I am short term trading around core positions but thats it.  Core positions I dont mind getting stuck with.

 

Well would have rather sold it at 23 of course... :) My mistake was selling it because I expected some initial panic after the Trump win where I might be able to buy it cheap again like after the Brexit vote. Clearly I was wrong here...

 

Though you are right, I did get a substantial cash position that has been partially rolled into some E&P positions, the rest I am sitting on as I lack conviction to go balls deep into any current idea.

 

 

[krazeenyc]

~16% overall.  Much higher in my roth since  EZPW was in there. Unfortunately I held between 50-70% cash all year and am closer to 70% as we speak.  Besides EZPW, a bunch of positions acquired early in the year while the market was having a hissy fit, and a few event driven transactions (merger arb, etc)  drove all the returns. My main core positions were generally break even in 2016.

Still like HCOM and ALSK a lot.