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Recession in 2016?


TheAiGuy
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Will there be a recession in 2016?  

164 members have voted

  1. 1. Will there be a recession in 2016?

    • Yes
    • No
    • No, but there will be one in 2017


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A recession 'where' would probably be a good clarifier...

 

I guess developed economies (North America and Europe).

 

Imo it depends on asset prices: if they keep falling, a recession in developed economies cannot be ruled out.

 

Cheers,

 

Gio

 

If they keep falling I'd argue a recession is inevitable.

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In the US? No. I suspect this selling is being fuelled by SWFs liquidating some of their holdings which is creating volatility and selling pressure, which is making people nervous and fearful, which ends up fuelling more selling (margin calls, MF redemptions, HF liquidations, fear based selling etc). All I'm reading is people trying to find reasons for why we're headed for a crisis but coming up with nothing substantial, but the market is worried, so anything negative will get more legs than it should. This episode does seem to point out how fragile market liquidity is in the post QE, post Dodd-Frank world, there's been a lot of sharp, bizarre selloffs. Anyways, this is just a best guess. Glad I'm not a macro guy, so difficult to know if you're making the right connections.

 

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In the US? No. I suspect this selling is being fuelled by SWFs liquidating some of their holdings which is creating volatility and selling pressure, which is making people nervous and fearful, which ends up fuelling more selling (margin calls, MF redemptions, HF liquidations, fear based selling etc). All I'm reading is people trying to find reasons for why we're headed for a crisis but coming up with nothing substantial, but the market is worried, so anything negative will get more legs than it should. This episode does seem to point out how fragile market liquidity is in the post QE, post Dodd-Frank world, there's been a lot of sharp, bizarre selloffs. Anyways, this is just a best guess. Glad I'm not a macro guy, so difficult to know if you're making the right connections.

 

So this market drop is all because of single white females liquidating their portfolios?

 

Seriously, what are SWFs?

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In the US? No. I suspect this selling is being fuelled by SWFs liquidating some of their holdings which is creating volatility and selling pressure, which is making people nervous and fearful, which ends up fuelling more selling (margin calls, MF redemptions, HF liquidations, fear based selling etc). All I'm reading is people trying to find reasons for why we're headed for a crisis but coming up with nothing substantial, but the market is worried, so anything negative will get more legs than it should. This episode does seem to point out how fragile market liquidity is in the post QE, post Dodd-Frank world, there's been a lot of sharp, bizarre selloffs. Anyways, this is just a best guess. Glad I'm not a macro guy, so difficult to know if you're making the right connections.

 

So this market drop is all because of single white females liquidating their portfolios?

 

Seriously, what are SWFs?

 

 

Sovereign Wealth Funds

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In the US? No. I suspect this selling is being fuelled by SWFs liquidating some of their holdings which is creating volatility and selling pressure, which is making people nervous and fearful, which ends up fuelling more selling (margin calls, MF redemptions, HF liquidations, fear based selling etc). All I'm reading is people trying to find reasons for why we're headed for a crisis but coming up with nothing substantial, but the market is worried, so anything negative will get more legs than it should. This episode does seem to point out how fragile market liquidity is in the post QE, post Dodd-Frank world, there's been a lot of sharp, bizarre selloffs. Anyways, this is just a best guess. Glad I'm not a macro guy, so difficult to know if you're making the right connections.

 

So this market drop is all because of single white females liquidating their portfolios?

 

Seriously, what are SWFs?

 

 

Sovereign Wealth Funds

 

Of course, thanks!

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Just to entertain the idea, even if we have two quarters of -.3% growth or something...and bounce back...is that the end of the world? The energy bust is for real, and onc it shakes itself out, things will improve on the investment end of GDP. I just remind myself that it's possible, and that earnings could decline, but that also provides opportunities.

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