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SwimmingNaked

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  1. No such thing as bad publicity. All this stuff has been known about before, we're just rehashing it. He's in the news, he ran for president, this is all good for his brand. Not really... https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/08/04/what-donald-trumps-candidacy-has-really-meant-for-his-business-empire/ Also remember someone reporting that his kids are pissed at how much the campaign is hurting business. Most of his hotels are in big cities and cater to the upper-middle to upper class. I doubt he has even 20% support among the type of people who have or would have stayed in his hotels. I'm pretty sure he just mostly licenses out his brand to developers, but what developer would want to use his name now?
  2. This election has exposed a lot of deplorables (not Rush though, he was always one). I think support for Trump would be cause to end a friendship, especially if you've reasoned with the person. Luckily I haven't had to do it, only supporter I know is a former high school buddy who converted into a deplorable well before Trump came on the scene. Not to say all Trump supporters are deplorable, many are just gullible chumps who buy the fake confidence he inspires (like any good con) and some are voting for him for purely strategic reasons (ie. get a conservative SC judge). But I find the hypocrisy of the Christian Right particularly amusing to watch, Trump is the living embodiment of the 7 deadly sins and everything their religion preaches against. Despite all these scandals, the thing I still find most troubling about Trump is how profoundly ignorant he is on just about everything, though it makes sense as self-obsessed people have little curiosity about anything other than what will be affecting their immediate future.
  3. largest to smallest FCAU RACE TCX DTEA CRH.TO RYCEY TFI.TO looking at: ALLE, FOGO recently sold: BIDU, AGU (not a fan of the merger), CXRX (what a disaster, ate a ~60% loss on this...think I'm done with levered equity plays, maybe use options instead)
  4. I also think this is true based on hearing PMs talk about stocks I know a bit about, but that's what happens when you're in a 100 stocks, you'll never even understand one of them well. Also, interesting quote from Graham and Doddsville newsletter: Let me correct a misperception. Most funds don't author many of their own ideas, and we’re one of them. We have an idea or two that we generate ourselves, especially in credit, but most are in The Wall Street Journal, or they come up in discussions at dinner with friends of mine. The idea that we’re sitting in a room, and then are suddenly all like “I got it! Let's buy XYZ.” That's not how it works. Bill Ackman is a different guy. Bill does do that and he's unique. John Griffin does that as well, especially in Japan. Generally, though, we all talk to each other and share ideas. Ideas are not generated out of thin air. They come to me from Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, idea dinners, brokers, etc. That's how they come.
  5. Hillary is one of the best candidates America has ever had. Sad most Americans can't realize this. She has done and said many things that I disagree with, but this is about as rational, informed and intelligent a candidate as you can expect. The relentless attacks from the right (for decades now) have turned a flawed person (and every one of you is flawed, and is guilty of lying from time to time to come of as better than you actually are) into a monster. Hillary has told her share of lies, but every other sentence out of Trump's mouth is a lie, misrepresentation or a self-serving boast, but his supporter base is full of morons who can't seem to realize this or don't seem to care. It's the Dunning-Kruger effect in its full, depressing glory. If Hillary told half the bullshit that comes out of Trump's mouth on a daily basis, she would not be a serious candidate, and I think that tells you a lot about the voter base of each candidate. Amazing that some people here are even taking Trump seriously. This isn't even a political thing, where I'm just trying to bash the Republican guy (I think much of the republican party is repulsive, dangerous and backwards but I wouldn't criticize say...Romney, if he were the candidate), but it's on the basis of the fact that Trump is a moron, and the worst kind of a moron, the kind of pompous moron who walks into every room thinking he is actually the smartest person. This guy sounds uninformed on just about every issue he touches. We have people here who seem to associate richness with goodness and competence, so I guess there's some truth to the saying "a rich man's folly passes for good judgement". How much money he has, how many times he went bankrupt, why he is hiding his tax returns, this is all irrelevant, just pay attention to what he is actually saying and realize that he knows nothing and is proposing one reckless thing after another, and that's the scary thing about him.
  6. FCAU, RACE, DTEA, BIDU, CXRX, CRH.TO, AGU That's my portfolio right now. All of them are GARP-y. Highest quality businesses are RACE, BIDU and DTEA. There is good value in healthcare if you can stomach the volatility. Acquisitive companies, especially those with leverage, have gotten killed, some of them unfairly. China was also on sale, still probably is, but I got the company I wanted (BIDU) so not really looking there any more. Decent value in Canada as well, I'm looking at companies like TFI, BAD, SXP (haven't done much work on them yet, but have them set aside to look at).
  7. In the US? No. I suspect this selling is being fuelled by SWFs liquidating some of their holdings which is creating volatility and selling pressure, which is making people nervous and fearful, which ends up fuelling more selling (margin calls, MF redemptions, HF liquidations, fear based selling etc). All I'm reading is people trying to find reasons for why we're headed for a crisis but coming up with nothing substantial, but the market is worried, so anything negative will get more legs than it should. This episode does seem to point out how fragile market liquidity is in the post QE, post Dodd-Frank world, there's been a lot of sharp, bizarre selloffs. Anyways, this is just a best guess. Glad I'm not a macro guy, so difficult to know if you're making the right connections.
  8. Warning: I don't spend a lot of time watching macro indicators so this a very simple, if not simplistic, take. I expect this to probably end up as the longest expansionary cycle in US history. Cycles tend to run longer after deeper contractions, and you would expect this to be especially the case if growth coming out of that contraction is anemic, as it has been. It will still take a long time to get to a point where the economy has overcapacity and needs to contract. Fed will be accommodative as long as needed, and I expect a boost from fiscal policy in the coming years. Who can seriously say that the American (or European) economy is overheating right now? How can you not be bullish when you see how much under-utilized capacity there is in European economies? A little bit of a slowdown for America should be expected, oil and gas is getting hit, strong dollar is probably hurting exporters...but this is not going to lead to a recession. Participating in the financial markets gets people to think the economy is really a more volatile and unstable system than it actually is. The sign that we should be truly fearful of is excess...and I just don't see it in the developed economies, households have deleveraged dramatically, fiscal policy has been austere across many countries, there's still slack in labor market (even in America when you factor in participation rate), corporations still seem to be very careful in making investments to add capacity, and don't see it in financial markets either after this recent correction, as at such low rates, equities should be trading at a much higher multiple. I'm reminded of what Tepper said a few months ago. He implied that 1) there will be volatility because of a drawdown in reserves, so lot of money will be coming out of the system (from China, oil economies, EMs etc), 2) margins will start to get pressured for many US corporations because of the strong dollar and wage pressures from a tightening labor market, and 3) multiples will need to come down to reflect the slower growth in EMs. I think that is basically what is happening right now. The first point has nothing to do with the real economy, though the resulting volatility in financial markets would end up leading to increased risk aversion (I think we are seeing this). The second point is not so good for corporate profits but good for real economy (the wage pressure part). The third point (slower EM growth) is not ideal, but is not enough of an issue to have a big impact on an economy as big and diverse as America's.
  9. Looks like it's finally momentum's turn for a schlonging. About time.
  10. Sounds like a VRX acquisition candidate. Are the earnings melting, is that why the PE is so low? Earnings are growing (there will be solid organic growth). P/E is low because of the high leverage + out of favour sector + trading in lock step with Valeant for nonsensical reasons + lot of uneconomic selling (margin calls + equity raise handing shares to weak hands at a time when sentiment turned sharply). CEO bought a million dollars worth of stock several weeks ago. This would not be an acquisition candidate for VRX, it's pursuing a different strategy/biz model and VRX doesn't have the balance sheet capacity to acquire them. Free from many VRX issues (like price gouging), something the market doesn't seem to understand yet.
  11. Concordia Healthcare is on like ~4-4.5x '16 earnings which is an insane valuation for the quality of cash flows this company can generate. The selling that happened post Amco acquisition was one of the most irrational things I've seen in the marketplace. Maybe you can argue they slightly overpaid for the acquisition but it made a lot of strategic sense. There is leverage but when you study the biz model, it has the exact characteristics of the kind of company you'd look for in an LBO candidate. Think this is a double+ by this time next year.
  12. Remember reading about this in the Economist. Those activities require spending a lot of time indoors --> less natural light --> vision deteriorates. Have to remind myself, especially during winter, to spend time or at the very least look outdoors for the sake of my vision. Here: http://www.economist.com/news/china/21631113-why-so-many-chinese-children-wear-glasses-losing-focus
  13. You can read it online free. Just read the "In today's paper" any articles you're interested in, highlight the name of the article, right click > click the search Google for (the article name) option and then click the link in the Google search page. It unlocks the article. This is how you know you're on a value investing forum.
  14. Fiat Chrysler...this is almost 40% of my portfolio and it's probably the only time I’ve given serious consideration to going all in on a stock, the pitch is that juicy (but decided against it, small possibility of a big recall or something happening to the CEO could maybe mess things up + there are other interesting ideas). I'd be disappointed with only a double in the next year. Big thread on it in investment ideas, so I'm assuming you guys are familiar with the thesis.
  15. David's Tea (DTEA). Built up a ~10% position in it. Think it's a potential triple over 2-3 years. May start a thread on it in investment ideas if people are interested.
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