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The View From Inside A Depression


Parsad
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Interesting indeed! Everytime someone mentions green shoots I cringe. Is this really over? Has the deleveraging process finished? is the rebound in Asia enough? Interesting times though and an interesting article. If someone does buy the book, I would appreciate comments on if it is worthwhile buying....

 

cheers

Zorro

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Interesting indeed! Everytime someone mentions green shoots I cringe. Is this really over? Has the deleveraging process finished? is the rebound in Asia enough? Interesting times though and an interesting article. If someone does buy the book, I would appreciate comments on if it is worthwhile buying....

 

cheers

Zorro

 

And as the article says, nobody knows the answer to any of these questions. Really, there is only one actionable piece of intelligence I found in the article (from an investing standpoint) and that is to not invest using too much debt. Other than that, what else can you do except wait it out, whether it takes one year or ten years?

 

 

 

 

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Interesting indeed! Everytime someone mentions green shoots I cringe. Is this really over? Has the deleveraging process finished? is the rebound in Asia enough? Interesting times though and an interesting article. If someone does buy the book, I would appreciate comments on if it is worthwhile buying....

 

cheers

Zorro

 

And as the article says, nobody knows the answer to any of these questions. Really, there is only one actionable piece of intelligence I found in the article (from an investing standpoint) and that is to not invest using too much debt. Other than that, what else can you do except wait it out, whether it takes one year or ten years?

 

Allocating capital toward companies that can withstand a second dip or inflation, have good earnings value and low debt. I'd rather cross the ocean with a galleon filled with food, sails and safety boats then cross it with a speedboat. Nobody knows what lies ahead but everybody know which vehicle they use.

 

BeerBaron

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scorpioncapital, I read your comment: "And as the article says, nobody knows the answer to any of these questions. Really, there is only one actionable piece of intelligence I found in the article (from an investing standpoint) and that is to not invest using too much debt. Other than that, what else can you do except wait it out, whether it takes one year or ten years?"

 

I am pretty sure that should my inverstments fall 85% from their high that I would NOT be able to hold on until they came back (i.e. for 10 years).

 

The chance that we are in the middle of a repeat of the '29 crash and depression is the highest it has ever been since then. If it happens (85% fall in S&P) and one is fully invested they are likely wiped out financially AND EMOTIONALLY. It is this remote scenario that has stopped me from staying fully invested and it has worked very well so far...

 

 

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Interesting indeed! Everytime someone mentions green shoots I cringe. Is this really over? Has the deleveraging process finished? is the rebound in Asia enough? Interesting times though and an interesting article. If someone does buy the book, I would appreciate comments on if it is worthwhile buying....

 

cheers

Zorro

 

And as the article says, nobody knows the answer to any of these questions. Really, there is only one actionable piece of intelligence I found in the article (from an investing standpoint) and that is to not invest using too much debt. Other than that, what else can you do except wait it out, whether it takes one year or ten years?

 

 

I would buy the book for historical perspective. The only other way I can think of to get a similar week-by-week perspective on the great depression is by searching old newspapers. Unfortunately, my local library does not have access to any good newspapers from that era.  I loved reading the site http://newsfrom1930.blogspot.com/ which some boardmember posted here... but I would really like a resource that lets me search across the entire period.  I think you can learn a lot by reading about the experiences of others; much that can be applicable to your investing approach.

 

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